Why Transfers Happen At The Last Minute.

[bernie from barrow gurney]

To all of you who are wondering:

"why haven't we brought in the right players yet?"

On saturday I spent a good few hours drinking with the son of a very, very well known premiership chairman at the weekend. He's not directly involved with that club or the industry but is hugely successful in his own right and is close to his father. I asked him what he thought about life where we are right now..

He told me there are two types of transfers:

1. Those who have pretty well been agreed before the window opens, and which happen quite calmly, for one reason or another - includes players released or at the end of contracts

2. Those where things have turned ugly, mainly because of greedy agents turning their clients heads and who have been touted widely in the six months prior to having a year left on their contracts and as soon as the window open go completely crazy putting crazy wage demands forward under threat of shipping out if they aren't met.

He told me even the crappest of crap squad players in the Premiership are now on £1m a year plus. given there are about 500 players attached to Prem clubs thats at least a half billion annual wage bill but more likely £one billion!

He also told me that you can tell the most shrewd buying clubs as they state an interest in a player then baulk at the wage/transfer demands - but wait patiently to right to the end of the window - when players, selling clubs and agents start to sh*t themselves as the thought of another season together - and then make their move with a crazy price. The haggling is very intensive and you can only really do this with one or two players otherwise it will take up too much time to complete any of them.

The trick is to get the player to want the club and not the otherway around - then you can drive the price you want to pay. Having told him of our targets he told me that often its the best ones you need to leave to last but there's only about a 30-50% chance of success especially if more than one buying club is involved.

I asked if we risked losing the best ones if we wait. No, was was the answer its the stupid clubs spending too much money who buy first, storing up problems for the future. There are a lot of desperate teams out there going hard for growth and success at any cost and who are all seconds from disaster.

This is clearly NOT what GJ and SL are doing. There are SIX WEEKS left before the window closes at the end of August so there really is plenty of time (take note ashtonyate et al..)

Finally, I was told that Bristol City is seen in higher echelons as a very well run and managed club and not only do most have their eye on GJ for the future, with this season being an important one for his long term career, but also as a currently undervalued business (compared to overvalued Prem clubs) ripe for a domestic or foreign takeover.

He also added that football now is a game for Billionaires, and a few million is no longer enough. Until the crazy bubble bursts, that is. It will only take one of the following to happen for that to occur:

1. Fans stop buying sky, pay per view - so they don't have the power to bid for the rights

2. Too many entrants come into the TV game so theres a price war, and revenues drop - expect to see games change from halfs to quarters to fit in two more ad breaks if that happens.

Take it or leave it but all in all a very interesting session indeed..

BFBG

[downendcity]

To all of you who are wondering:

"why haven't we brought in the right players yet?"

On saturday I spent a good few hours drinking with the son of a very, very well known premiership chairman at the weekend. He's not directly involved with that club or the industry but is hugely successful in his own right and is close to his father. I asked him what he thought about life where we are right now..

He told me there are two types of transfers:

1. Those who have pretty well been agreed before the window opens, and which happen quite calmly, for one reason or another - includes players released or at the end of contracts

2. Those where things have turned ugly, mainly because of greedy agents turning their clients heads and who have been touted widely in the six months prior to having a year left on their contracts and as soon as the window open go completely crazy putting crazy wage demands forward under threat of shipping out if they aren't met.

He told me even the crappest of crap squad players in the Premiership are now on £1m a year plus. given there are about 500 players attached to Prem clubs thats at least a half billion annual wage bill but more likely £one billion!

He also told me that you can tell the most shrewd buying clubs as they state an interest in a player then baulk at the wage/transfer demands - but wait patiently to right to the end of the window - when players, selling clubs and agents start to sh*t themselves as the thought of another season together - and then make their move with a crazy price. The haggling is very intensive and you can only really do this with one or two players otherwise it will take up too much time to complete any of them.

The trick is to get the player to want the club and not the otherway around - then you can drive the price you want to pay. Having told him of our targets he told me that often its the best ones you need to leave to last but there's only about a 30-50% chance of success especially if more than one buying club is involved.

I asked if we risked losing the best ones if we wait. No, was was the answer its the stupid clubs spending too much money who buy first, storing up problems for the future. There are a lot of desperate teams out there going hard for growth and success at any cost and who are all seconds from disaster.

This is clearly NOT what GJ and SL are doing. There are SIX WEEKS left before the window closes at the end of August so there really is plenty of time (take note ashtonyate et al..)

Finally, I was told that Bristol City is seen in higher echelons as a very well run and managed club and not only do most have their eye on GJ for the future, with this season being an important one for his long term career, but also as a currently undervalued business (compared to overvalued Prem clubs) ripe for a domestic or foreign takeover.

He also added that football now is a game for Billionaires, and a few million is no longer enough. Until the crazy bubble bursts, that is. It will only take one of the following to happen for that to occur:

1. Fans stop buying sky, pay per view - so they don't have the power to bid for the rights

2. Too many entrants come into the TV game so theres a price war, and revenues drop - expect to see games change from halfs to quarters to fit in two more ad breaks if that happens.

Take it or leave it but all in all a very interesting session indeed..

BFBG

Thanks for that Bernie. Interesting and constructive post that puts a few other poster's views on the club;s tranefr strategy into perspective. It's good to get an insiders perspective on the transfer market and also to learn how BCFC is viewed elsewhere within the football industry, and it seems to be a positive endorsement at the way Steve and Gary have gone about running the club.

Fingers crossed if SL and GJ are working the transfer market as your friend described, we can perhaps look forward to one or two more cracking transfers before deadline day.

[Sir Colby-Tit]

Very interesting read & makes a lot of sense. I'm not panicking & have every faith in GJ getting the players in.

[havanatopia]

Very interesting Bernie. Thanks for the 'report'.

Average salaries are perhaps a little inaccurate from your contact according to the Indepenent Newspaper...

''The average basic salary of a footballer in the English Premiership is £676,000 a year, or £13,000 per week, according to an exclusive survey of professional players by The Independent. That figure typically rises by between 60 and 100 per cent when performance-related bonuses, including for actually playing, are added.''

So while the 20k or 1 million figure may be right for those who play the squad players are on far less. Anyway, by the by... they are all paid FAR TOO MUCH.....

From the Football Fans Census... not sure how many were asked but the answers on player salaries are pretty unequivocal.....

Q8. How would wage reductions affect the quality of players and football we see?

It would improve it a lot 04.70%

It would improve it slightly 07.61%

Wouldn't make any difference 60.95%

It would be slightly worse 19.79%

It would be a lot worse 03.57%

Don't know 03.38%

Q3. How far do you think reducing wages would solve football's financial problem?

It would solve it in one fail swoop 04.46%

It would make a large difference 70.95%

It would help a little 19.92%

It wouldn't make any difference 03.06%

It would make it worse 01.00%

Don't know 00.60%

Q1. Do you think there should be a limit on what players earn?

Yes, it has been exceeded 66.89%

Yes, it has been reached 13.26%

Yes, but it hasn't been reached yet 01.47%

No 16.92%

Don't know 01.47%

Q10. Overall, how do you think reducing wages would affect the football industry in this country as a whole?

It would improve the industry a lot 48.31%

It would improve the industry slightly 34.41%

Wouldn't make any difference 06.62%

It would leave the industry slightly worse off 06.35%

It would leave the industry a lot worse off 02.25%

Don't know 02.05%

[RobtheRed]

Very interesting post.

But that's all very well for the smaller clubs, but we're Bristol City, we should have more ambition, so why haven't we signed Robbie Fowler and Andy Cole yet?

only kidding.

[Guest Eddie_Mulcahy]

Maybe we could trick players to coming to us by pretending we don't want to sign them, and then pay them really low wages. Then we can sign even more players

[ooRya]

Very interesting, and I suspect this confirms what most sensible people already realise about BCFC and football in general.

[havanatopia]

Very interesting, and I suspect this confirms what most sensible people already realise about BCFC and football in general.

Indeed. Proud to be a City fan. Proud we have SL, GJ and, yes, PJ.

[Dolman Queen]

What an interesting and informative read.

Thanks for that

DQ

[Nibor]

Thanks bernie, as others have posted that was a very interesting read.

I agree with much of what that bloke was saying.

I just wish we had a few more "type 1" transfers than type 2 which we seem to at the moment.

I'm still confident GJ will bring in two strikers before the window shuts though.

[MightyRed]

I just wish we had a few more "type 1" transfers than type 2 which we seem to at the moment.

Considering Marcus Stewart was our last "type 1" transfer, I am not so sure!

Again, thanks Bernie, a sensible take on the transfer window for a change!

[PhatWill]

Probably one of the most accurate and informative posts I've ever read on this forum (not quite THE best as you didn't tell any good jokes).

No response required really, although I hope most users on here get to read it. Maybe it should be pinned to the top till the end of August

[Geoff65]

All good fun, and all Sky driven

I agree with most of your post however I would like to take issue with the last bit aka Sky. IF you mean the world of footbal is the way it is due to Sky's influance on the past then sure I agree but if it about the latest tv deal it should be noted that the EU competition jerks said that Sky was in a monopoly and live games and post match show had to broken up. As a result we have got 3 packages of FA Prem football that can be bid on yet a bidder (eg sky or santan or beeb or itv) can only win a maximum of 2 packages. Now we have the absolutely stupid situation whereby the FA Premiership gets a shed load more tv revenue (estimated at £1.7 billion a year) which means higher wages as the ratio of wages to revenue will remain at around 60% - the extra money coming into the game will not go on home grown talent but proven or potential talen from other leagues around europe - I mean the FA will get roughly 2.5 times the revenue that the french league will get. The income generated will mean less English talent in the premiership and thus our national side manager will have less players to choose from the premiership.

Also this stupid deal means that the fans wanting to see all live premiership football wil pay a lot more or if they want to retain sky's package then the number of quality matches available will be diluted due to the fact Sentana having some of the juisiest fistures in their package. Had the EU not stuck their bloody noses in the wages I think would have levelled out and the gap between championship and premiership would not be so bloody huge, I think also that Sky would have bid less for the same package as they had pre-EU involvement.

Blame Sky for the past but from now on in I think the EU have a lot to answer for.

[bernie from barrow gurney]

Hi I mentioned sky & other payperview (including setanta etc) so didn't just mean Murdochs crew. Agreed about Europe; it's a complete joke whichever way you look at it.

Thats a great shout re wages - the window solved one smaller problem but created a much bigger one in its place.

Sorry, I also forgot to mention that the fact that Bristol was able to muster 40k fans for either of its recent Cup Final/Playoff games has also been noted although I pointed out that about 30% of those respective total were probably 'floaters' out for the overall experience. Even so that would still keep a very big club happy if swishing through the gates week in week out.

As more Prem clubs are bought those receiving the cheques are looking fast for new homes for their money.

Gold from B'ham

Shepherd from Newcastle

Both teams to have risen from the grave in the recent-ish past.

This is going to be a MASSIVE season for fans, players, manager, owners, leagues, TV companies and all the agents in between and I wonder where things will be in 12 months time!

A lot more fun than watching the news or coronation street though. if you can tell the difference!