edson Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 I've just been looking at this season's league table and been comparing it with previous seasons, as you do... In the last three seasons, second place has been secured with the following points: 2000-01 Rotherham 91pts 2001-02 Reading 84 pts 2002-03 Crewe 86 pts. The final play-off spot has been secured with the following number of points: 2000-01 Wigan 75 pts 2001-02 Huddersfield 78 pts 2002-03 Cardiff 81 pts Looking at this season's table, the sixth place team (Bournemouth) are currently on 60 points, with 18 points still available. Working on the supposition that two points per game is about the best return a team can expect over a run of games, Bournemouth are in line to finish on 72 points, if they show good form between now and the end of the season, which means that we only need one more point to secure a play-off spot. Similarly, I would suggest that two points per game in our remaining six games will probably be enough to see us grab 2nd spot. That means that we would need 83 points to finish 2nd - the lowest points total required for automatic promotion during Danny Wilson's reign - not only that, but the same number of points we achieved last season when finishing third. I guess this goes to show that, as many people have said, this is the weakest Second Division for quite some time, and only goes to underline the importance of taking advantage of this weakness and getting out now, while the getting out is good. So, what I'm saying, in a preposterously convoluted way is, I think 83 points will be enough to seal automatic promotion. Though things may alter slightly should QPR win their game in hand on Tuesday. I'm saying 83 points for auto. Anyone care to state a case for a different total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riaz Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 Id say 86 to make sure which means 5 wins out of the remaining six............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest RedwardsV1 Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 I won't state a different total Hmm, yeah that's really funny Tarquin., never been good at maths, but I think it is definatley the easiet second division 4 some time, how the hell r plymouth running away with it, and u can tell next season Sheffield Wednesday will be up 4 it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granty Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 I'm swaying towards 89 to be sure, I really think we can win the remaining games we have, best to look on the bright (if slightly optimistic) side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tompo Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 The three games that could decide our fate are Us V Plymouth Plymouth v QPR Sheff Weds V QPR. Obviously we must win and I guess a Plymouth win or draw against QPR. The last day could be crucial with us at home (Blackpool) and QPR at Wednesday. If the same QPR go to Sheffield that came here on Saturday it will be very interesting. Although on paper Plymouth have the easier run in, they also appear to have had more than their fair share of luck (the OG by the Swindon keepr, Heffernan taking one of the worst penalties in history etc). Could be that their luck is beginning to run out and we could capitalise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Neo Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 Bearing in mind goal difference is close, however, we don't score many; we need to get 1 more point than QPR to be sure. QPR's remaining 7 games are :- Tranmere Away (13th spot currently) Grimsby Home (19th) Barnsley Away (10th) Stockport Home (20th) Plymouth Away (1st) Swindon Home (5th) Sheffield Wednesday Away (14th) Impossible to assess, but at a guess (with some optimism built in), i'm going for :- Draw Win Draw Win Lose Draw Draw; meaning they will get another 10 points. So our target is 11 from 6 which is definitely achievable. Over optimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granty Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 The situation I'd like to see at the end of the season is City sitting in 2nd place, 1 point infront QPR, knowing that promotion is just 1 win away. Home game against Blackpool (chance for revenge), packed house, chance of wild pitch invasion / promotion party. Neo - Nice balls mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheshire_red Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 Haven't Swindon also to go to QPR? Can't remember of the top of my head.......there is a PROMOTION CALCULATOR HERE which includes all the remaining fixtures for all the top 12 sides.....(under Headlines) http://www.bristolcitynet.co.uk Additionally don't look at Bournemouth in sixth but Luton who have games in hand. Auto - 84 points play-off's -74 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Neo Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 Haven't Swindon also to go to QPR? QPR's remaining 7 games are :- Tranmere Away (13th spot currently) Grimsby Home (19th) Barnsley Away (10th) Stockport Home (20th) Plymouth Away (1st) Swindon Home (5th) Sheffield Wednesday Away (14th) what thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Neo Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 Neo - Nice balls mate. Well thankyou It's a tribute to Mr Rougier or after his Port Vale antics; Michael Jordan You pass me de ball; and I catch it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tompo Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 FAO Edson. You appear to have a plagarist. http://boards.rivals.net/default.asp?sid=9...toid=2135821161 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edson Posted April 5, 2004 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 FAO Edson. You appear to have a plagarist. http://boards.rivals.net/default.asp?sid=9...toid=2135821161 I'll take it as flattery, shall I?! I'm no detective, but my gut feeling is that qprjack may be the culprit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordofthebling Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 to be honest, that must have given the boys a massive psycologiacal advantage! I think we need to take at least 4 points off of Plymouth and Swindon and hopefully win the rest... Come on the boys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
City Exile Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 It is certainly going to be fewer points than before. Being honest, 9 points from our last 6 games is quite possible, meaning QPR need three more wins from 7! Equally, the best we can hope for I expect is 14/15 points, which will take some doing by QPR to match. If we win all our games left, then with QPR to play Plymouth, it is just about certain we would go up. Best guess - play offs, bemoaning the points we have recently dropped, but with no one to fear. And as a matter of fact, why is it a weak league because you require fewer points to go up? Surely the other way of saying that is that it is a competitive league? The fact that the teams going up will have fewer points does not mean they vanished into thin air - somebody took them off them. Does it make the Scottish Premiership a strong league because Celtic will win it by a landslide? Have a look at the bottom. Normally, 50 points will see you safe. Arguably 3 teams wil go down this year on 50 points. There is no outstanding team, accepted. It does not make it a weak league however. Some teams will still drop points against those at the bottom. O for Feb and March back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riaz Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 Based on the last 11 seasons the average points needed for 2nd place was 86...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edson Posted April 5, 2004 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 And as a matter of fact, why is it a weak league because you require fewer points to go up? Surely the other way of saying that is that it is a competitive league? The fact that the teams going up will have fewer points does not mean they vanished into thin air - somebody took them off them. Does it make the Scottish Premiership a strong league because Celtic will win it by a landslide? No, but it indicates there are two strong sides in a weak division, as opposed to the division we are in, where there are no strong sides in a weak division. You are right though, there are two ways of looking at the levelling out of the division this season. One way to look at it, is that the top sides are easier to beat than in recent seasons, the other is to say that the lower teams are better then they have been in recent seasons and, as a result, are more capable of beating the top sides. With no obvious reason to assume that the lower placed teams will all have improved markedly, I would go with the theory that the top placed teams are not as good as in previous seasons and are, therefore, more prone to lose against lower placed opposition. That, in turn, suggests to me that the quality of the division as a whole is lower than it has been for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potbelly Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 Taking into account that the sun is rising in Venus plus Sainsburys shares going up 2% plus Hoggard getting a fivefor plus The number of horses finishing the National added to Cambridge winning the boat race topped off by the start of the Baseball season....I`d calculate that we need the same as Edson said plus 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
City Exile Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 I hate remorseless logic, but inclined to agree. However, have heard many fans of Div 1 bemoaning a 'weak div 1'. May suggest that we should not worry about going up and surviving, even if not a dominant force in Div 2 land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltshoveller Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 One more than the team in 3rd!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfc seattle Posted April 5, 2004 Report Share Posted April 5, 2004 I'd say it'll take 86 pts for auto Thinking a team will miss out with 84 or 85. As far as playoffs go my guess would be low, maybe even 71 or 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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