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We are not safe yet.


tinman85

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1 minute ago, cynic said:

Assuming Blackburn suddenly wake up and win two games by big amounts of course.

This.  Is anyone really expecting Blackburn to suddenly find their mojo and beat Villa and Brentford by an aggregate big enough to put us down?  Even if they won both matches 3-0 they'd still need us to lose both of our matches by 2 goals.  Plus we would need all of the other teams beneath us to have excellent final games.  The fact that we play Birmingham on the final day means that it is always going to be in our hands.  Even if we lose on Saturday and Birmingham win we will still go into the final day of the season knowing that a draw or better will keep us up.

It's all but over.

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Just now, CotswoldRed said:

Shame we capitulated to Preston as it would all be over now. 

Ifs and buts at every turn. 

To be honest, the Brentford game was worse in my eyes, having put in such a good performance prior to it and with one or two notable exceptions to see such a poor display all round the team was very disappointing. I have two friends who are Preston supporters who both said to me after the game that although we weren't great, PNE just had one of those days where everything they did went right. They felt that it was their best performance of the season by a country mile. Interesting that it was their only win in the last 6 or so. Maybe they used up all their luck/mojo in one game. 

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50 minutes ago, cynic said:

Assuming Blackburn suddenly wake up and win two games by big amounts of course.

Wouldn't necessarily need to-its goal difference,not just how many you win by.

A four goal dicking & a two goal win for your rival says six goals down the swanee in one fell swoop.

I don't think it's that likely,mind.

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If Birmingham win and Blackburn win (not impossible looking at their fixtures) and we lose by 4+ goals against the best side in the division, that would give us a tense final day.

Odds of that scenario are 55/1.

That's just to take it to the last day, as someone else pointed out most bookies aren't even given odds for us to go down anymore.

I'm still worried though.

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I'd be more worried in QPR's shoes to be honest than ours - lost 6 on the bounce, playing shite, got Forest at home next (and they've found a couple of decent performances lately) - finally QPR away at Norwich on last day.

If Blackburn find those 2 wins as unlikely as that seems I think QPR could end up as the surprise relegation fodder - Holloway back where he belongs  :P

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So if we lose our next 2 games:

Blackburn, who have won 1 game in their last 10 with a goal difference of -4 in those 10 games, -15 overall, need to find two wins from two and realistically a goal difference of + 5 from those games. That's against inform Villa and Brentford who are tough at their place, as we know.

If Blackburn achieve that, Birmingham (0 wins in 10 games, currently -22 goal difference) then need to win their last 2 games as well.

If Birmingham do that, Forest then need at least a win and a draw, or a big win.

Then QPR (who also play Forest) and Burton also need at least a point. 

Even if we lose our two games, all this needs to go against us, so I'm confident enough to say we're good as safe.

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26 minutes ago, WessexPest said:

No, we're safe. Although I expect Villa to put in absolutely zero effort against Blackburn considering Birmingham plight. A Blackburn win in that one is a banker. 

If the Villa players were Villa fans I'm sure you'd be right. But I doubt the Villa players really give a **** about how Birmingham are getting on and will be putting in their usual amount of effort.

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Just now, richwwtk said:

If the Villa players were Villa fans I'm sure you'd be right. But I doubt the Villa players really give a **** about how Birmingham are getting on and will be putting in their usual amount of effort.

All the Villa fans I know - and I know a fair few - are supporting Blackburn against their own team! Be interesting to see what impact that has on the players...

That's an interesting point - if we were in Villa's position, nothing to play for, we're playing a team fighting against the Gas for survival would you want City to lose? 

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7 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

So if we lose our next 2 games:

Blackburn, who have won 1 game in their last 10 with a goal difference of -4 in those 10 games, -15 overall, need to find two wins from two and realistically a goal difference of + 5 from those games. That's against inform Villa and Brentford who are tough at their place, as we know.

If Blackburn achieve that, Birmingham (0 wins in 10 games, currently -22 goal difference) then need to win their last 2 games as well.

If Birmingham do that, Forest then need at least a win and a draw, or a big win.

Then QPR (who also play Forest) and Burton also need at least a point. 

Even if we lose our two games, all this needs to go against us, so I'm confident enough to say we're good as safe.

Yea it's an extreme set of circumstances that need to happen. Basically if Birmingham and Blackburn fail to win on Saturday we are same even though technically Birmingham could stay within reach with a draw. There is just far too much that needs to go against us. Though I get the reluctance to say it. 

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