AppyDAZE Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 WE ARE SAFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, AppyDAZE said: WE ARE SAFE Yes but no but yes but... Of course the rational part of me now says it would need a whole run of results to go the wrong way for us to go down. Equally, as a Bristol City fan who can see every permutation, do I feel 'more than 250/1' safe? Nope (ps, even worked out Blackburn need to improve their goal difference by 10 compared to us, as we have scored more goals...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppyDAZE Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, cityexile said: Yes but no but yes but... Of course the rational part of me now says it would need a whole run of results to go the wrong way for us to go down. Equally, as a Bristol City fan who can see every permutation, do I feel 'more than 250/1' safe? Nope Well, try it . WE ARE SAFE I promise you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddoh Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, AppyDAZE said: Well, try it . WE ARE SAFE I promise you No the fat lady is just warming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppyDAZE Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, reddoh said: No the fat lady is just warming up She is gonna sing whatever it is that they sing up there in Blackburn. If not there, Birmingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddoh Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, AppyDAZE said: She is gonna sing whatever it is that they sing up there in Blackburn. If not there, Birmingham Love your confidence just been on this roller coaster too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppyDAZE Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, reddoh said: Love your confidence just been on this roller coaster too long. Come on, now you're making me laugh. There's probably more chance of chelsea saying .. you know what.. just have Tammy for nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddoh Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, AppyDAZE said: Come on, now you're making me laugh. There's probably more chance of chelsea saying .. you know what.. just have Tammy for nothing yes please please please please please please ad infinitum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben4BCFC Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 For anyone interested, 1000/1 on SkyBet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rotkerlchen Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 3 hours ago, Ashtonwurzel said: Agree it is not at all likely but it's not as simple as Blackburn having to "win big" to catch us, they don't. Routine wins for them and routine defeats for us could mean they overtake us. As you say would take a miracle for at least one of the others currently below us not to stay there. The point we're forgetting is that Blackburn haven't managed a league win by more than one goal since December. And only three times all season (only once against a team higher than 23rd). So "routine wins" it ain't. Winning a couple of games on the trot by two goals would be a feat Blackburn haven't achieved since... November 2014. And even then we'd have to lose our two games with a goal difference of at least -6 (OK, so you don't have to go back quite as far for that one...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobBobSuperBob Posted April 24, 2017 Report Share Posted April 24, 2017 If we have no keeper on the bench Saturday and Frankie gets sent off conceding a penalty in first minute , flowed by Flint and Korey for arguing and Villa have to field their U16s against Blackburn due to a vomiting bug through the whole club we could be a bit nervy going into the Brum game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CotswoldRed Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 7 hours ago, AppyDAZE said: Well, try it . WE ARE SAFE I promise you Would you use a parachute that was 250/1 safe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoldenBall Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 If Birmingham don't beat Huddersfield we are safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 We are not safe, but to put it in perspective, if my calculations are right there are 243 different permutations of the results of our, Birmingham's and Blackburn's final two games, and only one of those 243 permutations could lead to us being relegated (Blackburn and Birmingham win both games, we lose both games). Having said that, I can't see us getting anything from Brighton on Saturday, so if Blackburn and Birmingham do win, its going to go down to the final Saturday and we have got the game we do not want, against one of the other relegation candidates. Still far from comfortable about this situation. Mind you, if QPR beat Forest on Saturday - and the law of averages says they've got to win a match some time - that leaves Forest 3 points behind us with one to play. The key to all of this is not to collapse against Brighton on Saturday. We must not lose by more than two goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bristolcity Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 9 hours ago, AppyDAZE said: Come on, now you're making me laugh. There's probably more chance of chelsea saying .. you know what.. just have Tammy for nothing This is true, seriously though are there still the doubters that think we are not safe? We were safe when we drew with Blackburn, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cummins17 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, 1bristolcity said: This is true, seriously though are there still the doubters that think we are not safe? We were safe when we drew with Blackburn, I defiently don't think we are safe yet. Football is a funny game and things change quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, 1bristolcity said: This is true, seriously though are there still the doubters that think we are not safe? We were safe when we drew with Blackburn, Sorry mate but whatever way you look at it, we are not yet safe. You think and hope we will be, but it hasn't happened yet. At the moment there is still a realistic possibility of us going down. Blackburn win two games; Birmingham win two games; we lose two games (including one at the probable champions) and we could be down. That is unlikely, but football is a strange game and unlikely things do sometimes happen (ask the Gas...). It is not as if we have a +20 advantage on goal difference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
View from the Dolman Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, The Dolman Pragmatist said: Blackburn win two games; Birmingham win two games; we lose two games (including one at the probable champions) and we could be down. Plus results with Forest, QPR and Burton go against us. It's not just two teams that have to rise above us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
View from the Dolman Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 From @experimental361 on Twitter who does all sorts of statistical analysis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1953 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Another glass half empty thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
View from the Dolman Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, 1953 said: Another glass half empty thread Half empty? There's barely a dribble in the glass for some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 29 minutes ago, 1953 said: Another glass half empty thread No, another glass not yet quite full thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoxton casual Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 hours ago, CotswoldRed said: Would you use a parachute that was 250/1 safe? surelly odds are not probability? One is an attempt to work out if something will happen, the other is an attempt to get you to bet, modified by the number of people who take you up that bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingLear Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Let's put it another way. I know it's different when it's your own team and there will always be nervous nagging doubts, but I think us going down is as likely as Wigan staying up. Wigan are 23rd, 6 points behind Birmingham but with a BETTER goal difference than them, but who realistically believes that they will survive the drop? Now don't we all feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 As a lifelong pessimist and knowing that City can always contrive to do the impossible, like losing a game when 3-0 up in the 89th minute, I am really confident that we will not be relegated this season, even though I was pretty sure we would be, way back in November. There are too many teams below us, two of whom play each other, QPR v Florist, and our superior goal difference, to see us going down. That is not a sea change to "optimism" but just being realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 21 hours ago, tinman85 said: Just saying. We need to avoid a heavy defeat on Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoxton casual Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, Major Isewater said: Surely we want to beat them? That would really help with confidence for next season and show our progression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, hoxton casual said: Surely we want to beat them? That would really help with confidence for next season and show our progression? I actually have a totally irrational feeling that we will beat Brighton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickJ Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 hours ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said: We are not safe, but to put it in perspective, if my calculations are right there are 243 different permutations of the results of our, Birmingham's and Blackburn's final two games, and only one of those 243 permutations could lead to us being relegated (Blackburn and Birmingham win both games, we lose both games). Having said that, I can't see us getting anything from Brighton on Saturday, so if Blackburn and Birmingham do win, its going to go down to the final Saturday and we have got the game we do not want, against one of the other relegation candidates. Still far from comfortable about this situation. Mind you, if QPR beat Forest on Saturday - and the law of averages says they've got to win a match some time - that leaves Forest 3 points behind us with one to play. The key to all of this is not to collapse against Brighton on Saturday. We must not lose by more than two goals. That's a good analysis, which could even be added to. In the event of City losing both, and Blackburn and Birmingham winning both, we will stay up in any of the following scenarios: - The goal difference swing to Blackburn is less than 9 - Burton lose both their games - QPR beat Forest and Forest fail to win their final game - Forest beat QPR and QPR fail to win their final game - QPR and Forest draw, and both fail to win their final games If you work it out, which I have, sort of, the odds on us going down are probably around 5,000 to 1, which I believe is what Leicester were to win the Premiership.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, NickJ said: That's a good analysis, which could even be added to. In the event of City losing both, and Blackburn and Birmingham winning both, we will stay up in any of the following scenarios: - The goal difference swing to Blackburn is less than 9 - Burton lose both their games - QPR beat Forest and Forest fail to win their final game - Forest beat QPR and QPR fail to win their final game - QPR and Forest draw, and both fail to win their final games If you work it out, which I have, sort of, the odds on us going down are probably around 5,000 to 1, which I believe is what Leicester were to win the Premiership.................. Good post. Actually QPR fans must be feeling pretty nervous at the moment: Forest look as though they are putting a bit of form together, and I wouldn't bet against them winning on Saturday, then QPR go to Norwich on the last day of the season... Anyone reading the Brum or Blackburn fans forums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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