reddoh Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, 1953 said: Another glass half empty thread what f in glass and I can see tunnel at the end of the light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityboy Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Anyone who thinks we aren't going to smash the poorest Birmingham side in (my) living memory is going to be in for a pleasant surprise on the final Sunday of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityloyal473 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 If we B'burn were to win 2-0 on Saturday and we were to lose 3-0 at Brighton - the GD would then only be four - is that correct or is my math and understanding of the GD way off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkz 76 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 We're staying up to many clubs behind us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Lets just hope that either Blackburn or Brum fail to win on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bristolcity Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 There are five teams below us that need to do better than us in the remaining ten matches, and some given our much better gd. For that to happen is ....well I did calculate the odds, and it is in the region of 25 million / 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elruliri Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Major Isewater said: I actually have a totally irrational feeling that we will beat Brighton. That's the spirit Major, they don't like it up um! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jin Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 21 hours ago, WessexPest said: All the Villa fans I know - and I know a fair few - are supporting Blackburn against their own team! Be interesting to see what impact that has on the players... That's an interesting point - if we were in Villa's position, nothing to play for, we're playing a team fighting against the Gas for survival would you want City to lose? If people do that then they are putting their hatred for another team ahead of their support of their own team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityloyal473 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 29 minutes ago, cynic said: What about the results from QPR, Forest, Burton, Birmingham ? I didn't ask about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeh Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, cityloyal473 said: I didn't ask about them. well if birmingham fail to win (but get a point) and we lose 4-0 they would still have to beat us 13-0 to stay up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, Monkeh said: well if birmingham fail to win (but get a point) and we lose 4-0 they would still have to beat us 13-0 to stay up Could be close if we brought back Hunt, Nyatanga, Fontaine and Mcgivern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elruliri Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Monkeh said: well if birmingham fail to win (but get a point) and we lose 4-0 they would still have to beat us 13-0 to stay up Would be possible if we had Ian Leigh in goal. He must be in his 50's now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, 1bristolcity said: There are five teams below us that need to do better than us in the remaining ten matches, and some given our much better gd. For that to happen is ....well I did calculate the odds, and it is in the region of 25 million / 1 Yes, but some don't have to do very much better. If you take it a week at a time, the nightmare scenario gets a little more scary. What if the following happened on Saturday? We lose to Brighton by three goals Burton draw at Barnsley Forest beat QPR by a single goal Birmingham beat Huddersfield by a single goal Blackburn beat Villa by two goals Any of that might happen, and then the position going into the last match is: Burton 52 -12 City 51 -9 Forest 51 -10 QPR 50 -13 Brum 50 -21 Blackburn 48 -13 So Burton are safe, but its all to play for for the rest of us on the final day, and I can't see Birmingham rolling over. Don't get me wrong, I want this to be over as much as anyone else and I know that this is looking at worst case scenario, but my nerves are really playing up this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elruliri Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 I'm a half glass is nearly full sort of chap. I think we're up and can see us getting something at Brighton. We've done it before, Middlesbrough last season and a draw at Newcastle this year. If someone offered me this position a month ago I'd of bitten their arms off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bat Fastard Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, elruli said: I'm a half glass is nearly full sort of chap. I think we're up and can see us getting something at Brighton. We've done it before, Middlesbrough last season and a draw at Newcastle this year. If someone offered me this position a month ago I'd of bitten their arms off. Then it would be sensible never to offer you anything Elrui - you never know when you might turn and "bite yer arm off"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bat Fastard Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said: Yes, but some don't have to do very much better. If you take it a week at a time, the nightmare scenario gets a little more scary. What if the following happened on Saturday? We lose to Brighton by three goals Burton draw at Barnsley Forest beat QPR by a single goal Birmingham beat Huddersfield by a single goal Blackburn beat Villa by two goals Any of that might happen, and then the position going into the last match is: Burton 52 -12 City 51 -9 Forest 51 -10 QPR 50 -13 Brum 50 -21 Blackburn 48 -13 So Burton are safe, but its all to play for for the rest of us on the final day, and I can't see Birmingham rolling over. Don't get me wrong, I want this to be over as much as anyone else and I know that this is looking at worst case scenario, but my nerves are really playing up this week! Ok - so lets all go and jump off the suspension bridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddoh Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, Super said: Could be close if we brought back Hunt, Nyatanga, Fontaine and Mcgivern can't make loan signings so we might be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephenkibby. Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 35 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said: Yes, but some don't have to do very much better. If you take it a week at a time, the nightmare scenario gets a little more scary. What if the following happened on Saturday? We lose to Brighton by three goals Burton draw at Barnsley Forest beat QPR by a single goal Birmingham beat Huddersfield by a single goal Blackburn beat Villa by two goals Any of that might happen, and then the position going into the last match is: Burton 52 -12 City 51 -9 Forest 51 -10 QPR 50 -13 Brum 50 -21 Blackburn 48 -13 So Burton are safe, but its all to play for for the rest of us on the final day, and I can't see Birmingham rolling over. Don't get me wrong, I want this to be over as much as anyone else and I know that this is looking at worst case scenario, but my nerves are really playing up this week! Well after that I'm convinced were doomed. Going to smack a ton on that skybet at 1000/1 Thanks for that my pension is now sorted!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bristolcity Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 36 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said: Yes, but some don't have to do very much better. If you take it a week at a time, the nightmare scenario gets a little more scary. What if the following happened on Saturday? We lose to Brighton by three goals Burton draw at Barnsley Forest beat QPR by a single goal Birmingham beat Huddersfield by a single goal Blackburn beat Villa by two goals Any of that might happen, and then the position going into the last match is: Burton 52 -12 City 51 -9 Forest 51 -10 QPR 50 -13 Brum 50 -21 Blackburn 48 -13 So Burton are safe, but its all to play for for the rest of us on the final day, and I can't see Birmingham rolling over. Don't get me wrong, I want this to be over as much as anyone else and I know that this is looking at worst case scenario, but my nerves are really playing up this week! You are doing your level best to ruin my optimism, I have been through enough already this season, I don't need this, But if all that did happen I promise I would by a ST at the Mesmorising Ground..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkz 76 Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Or we just go to Brighton and draw or win we are capable of doing that easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoodridgeandGoater Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 45 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said: Yes, but some don't have to do very much better. If you take it a week at a time, the nightmare scenario gets a little more scary. What if the following happened on Saturday? We lose to Brighton by three goals Burton draw at Barnsley Forest beat QPR by a single goal Birmingham beat Huddersfield by a single goal Blackburn beat Villa by two goals Any of that might happen, and then the position going into the last match is: Burton 52 -12 City 51 -9 Forest 51 -10 QPR 50 -13 Brum 50 -21 Blackburn 48 -13 So Burton are safe, but its all to play for for the rest of us on the final day, and I can't see Birmingham rolling over. Don't get me wrong, I want this to be over as much as anyone else and I know that this is looking at worst case scenario, but my nerves are really playing up this week! I'm with you in wanting to guard against complacency! At this time of the season strange things happen with out of form results often based on teams who need points finding a way of getting them against those with nothing to play for. I wouldn't be surprised to see Blackburn beat villa on Saturday. QPR v Forest will also be a very interesting game. But - for all those things to happen is one hell of an accumulator. Maybe we can relax just this once... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Experimental361's stats machine gives us a 0% chance of going down. The lad runs thousands of simulations and is used by Paddy Power and other bookies. he uses the data from all shots faced and attempted to predict the likely outcomes of all matches. We're done. Full explanation: https://experimental361.com/2017/04/25/e-ratings-update-championship-25-apr-2017/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CotswoldRed Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 hours ago, hoxton casual said: surelly odds are not probability? One is an attempt to work out if something will happen, the other is an attempt to get you to bet, modified by the number of people who take you up that bet? That true. But probably not too far from the probability. Allowing for a margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 51 minutes ago, Sparkz 76 said: Or we just go to Brighton and draw or win we are capable of doing that easily That will all depend on what Brighton turn up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Red Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, Super said: That will all depend on what Brighton turn up. Hopefully the one that's been out on the piss all Friday night after Newcastle have slipped up at Cardiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDOXO Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 20 hours ago, Neo said: 1. We will be safe by the time we play Brighton 2. We will get at least a point against Brighton I will quote this thread at 7:30 Saturday to show I was right x This is the highly like scenario particularly point one. However this is us. Anything weird that can happen may happen. Villa fail to show up and why would they 'professional pride pah' there will be many villa fans secretly hoping they lose. Fingers crossed its all over for us by five on Friday. Maybe we get the chance to see McCoulsky relegate Brum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, REDOXO said: This is the highly like scenario particularly point one. However this is us. Anything weird that can happen may happen. Villa fail to show up and why would they 'professional pride pah' there will be many villa fans secretly hoping they lose. Fingers crossed its all over for us by five on Friday. Maybe we get the chance to see McCoulsky relegate Brum! Not sure it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobBobSuperBob Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 Should be an interesting afternoon Allegedly Villa taking a few thousand and some suggesting they will be willing On Blackburn and joining in with anti Venkys Chants & demos ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said: Experimental361's stats machine gives us a 0% chance of going down. The lad runs thousands of simulations and is used by Paddy Power and other bookies. he uses the data from all shots faced and attempted to predict the likely outcomes of all matches. We're done. Full explanation: https://experimental361.com/2017/04/25/e-ratings-update-championship-25-apr-2017/ The bit above that is interesting- it has us as 9th in Exp. Goals scored/conceded Ratio, but then you factor in the individual bits- 7th best attack in League according to Expected goals per game...but 18th best defence. Midtable! If that model is anything to go by...Reading would be 23rd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WessexPest Posted April 25, 2017 Report Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 hours ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said: Yes, but some don't have to do very much better. If you take it a week at a time, the nightmare scenario gets a little more scary. What if the following happened on Saturday? We lose to Brighton by three goals Burton draw at Barnsley Forest beat QPR by a single goal Birmingham beat Huddersfield by a single goal Blackburn beat Villa by two goals Any of that might happen, and then the position going into the last match is: Burton 52 -12 City 51 -9 Forest 51 -10 QPR 50 -13 Brum 50 -21 Blackburn 48 -13 So Burton are safe, but its all to play for for the rest of us on the final day, and I can't see Birmingham rolling over. Don't get me wrong, I want this to be over as much as anyone else and I know that this is looking at worst case scenario, but my nerves are really playing up this week! I think you're driving yourself a little nuts here. I don't expect all of those stars to align. Final day Blackburn are at Brentford - a bloody tough place to get a result. I don't expect us to get anything from Brighton but they will either be in cruise control or edgy with the Toon breathing down their necks - either way that should favour us and mean we avoid a repeat of last season's 4-0 thrashing down there. Frankie Fielding says Relax - the Brighton boys won't leave us sore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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