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If we appointed Warnock in Feb 2016....where would we be now?


tinman85

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23 hours ago, tinman85 said:

Football is a results business. 

Would you have enjoyed being promoted if Pulis had stayed here and been successful playing horrible  Hoofball? I also remember crowds dropping off under Russel Osman even during the season we beat Liverpool. 

Football is a results business for those paid to be involved. For some fans entertainment is at least as important.

 

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3 hours ago, Jack Dawe said:

If his wage bill is 2nd highest out of 24, then he is delivering and providing value for money - not to be sniffed at. If his wage bill is 5th, 6th or lower out of 24, he is over-delivering. I have no idea where he sits in the budget/wages table.

Also, is it realistic to ask LJ to deliver promotion if our wage bill is bottom half in the Championship, and with such a young squad? Do younger teams/squads win promotion from this league, or is it mostly the more experienced ones? (I have no idea).

 

I think it is fair to say that Warnock is currently delivering, or over delivering relative to Cardiff's wage bill vs league position. Last year they had the 3rd highest wage bill, this year it could be lower, but at most 4th or 5th. So a play-off finish would be 'value for money' if that's how value for money is assessed. To be honest, I think promotion is the only real value for money for the likes of Villa, Derby, Cardiff, Fulham, who are spending way beyond their revenue means, and risking FFP hitting them hard in the seasons to come, to fight for promotion. 3 or more of these teams will be disappointed on that front this season. Cardiff especially, with their £80m worth of debt and parachute payments ending this summer. Look at QPR and Hull. 

Back to Warnock, the question is would he 'over achieve' at City, with our current ethos, as Lee Johnson is arguably doing? I'm not anti NW generally, but I don't like his style of football. But i'd put that aside if he could work in our structure. So could he achieve the same as LJ, using the longer term outlook, with a drastically tighter budget? There is no doubting the man has skills - but his career isn't exactly a CV filled with success under this model. You could use QPR as an example, he didn't spend big on transfers, but his style is generally to get players he knows and trusts on bosman's...then it is harder to tell what the wage spend was at QPR that year for example. This is certainly his approach at Cardiff. Wheel and deal and pay high wages. Can he get the best out a squad of players over a short or medium length of time, absolutely yes. Does he develop youth and cultivate like we are trying, over 2, 3, 4 seasons? I don't know. Maybe him jumping ship at Palace when administration loomed sticks in my mind.

R.E age. Have a look below and to answer your question, yes and no....no real correlation I can see, it's a real mixture:

The three promoted teams last year, Newcastle - joint 4th youngest squad, tied with Huddersfield, play off winners. Brighton the other team, the oldest in the division.

This season - The 'oldest' teams seem to be Derby (4th), Burton (22nd) , Bolton (19th), Birmingham (21st) and Villa (3rd). 

The youngest seem to be - Barnsley (23rd), Brentford (10th), Forest (17th), Preston (9th), Wolves (1st).

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3 hours ago, joe jordans teeth said:

Warnock has never gone on losing runs at any club in his whole career  like Johnson has in the 3 clubs he has managed,but hey ho Johnson is the golden boy 

Well that’s odd because Colin has been sacked several times after poor runs of form.

He is often praised because of the number of promotions he has achieved, but in fact his record is quite patchy. He rarely seems to stay any where long, either because of unsustained success or because of “personality clashes “ - ie people can’t stand having him round for long.

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23 hours ago, tinman85 said:

Personally I think Neil would have had us promoted last season. Do you agree? Hope we thrash them on Sunday but got to hand it to NW. Crushing it now with an incredibly average squad. No disrespect to LJ but if we had appointed Neil in 2016 do you think we would have achieved more by now comparing funds spent and management skills? 

Ahhhhhhhhhhh.......NO NO...............A thousand times NO.   The Warlock should remain in Mordor where he belongs.

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Warnock has what, seven, eight promotions to his name?

LJ will indeed have quite a career if he does that - but that's not what we are talking about.

Would SL be here if Warnock was manager - behave!!

SL would trouser the 100 mil per year for 4 yrs (at worst) and build a statue!

Would the crowds drop - no - because we would be in the Prem....

 

However, I would never have a manager who was (all true):

A qualified referee (oh the irony)

A qualified undertaker

And a kid called Cosmo!

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The debate shouldn't be about Lee Johnson versus Neil Warnock.  It is not that at all and Lee Johnson is doing very well.  As pointed out by others, Neil Warnock has had a much longer time in the game and Lee Johnson is just starting out in managerial terms.

Neil Warnock was interviewed tonight on the Geoff Twentyman show.  He is very good to listen to and in my opinion, very honest.  Asked whether his thought's on Lee and his dad Gary were genuine or pantomime he said they were genuine. He countered that by saying how well Lee was doing and that e had the golden ticket with Steve Lansdown as his Chairman which I think is a fair assessment.  He also said that he had wanted to be Bristol City Manager many times and that Steve Lansdown has done a wonderful job for Bristol Sport, Bristol City and the City of Bristol.

Hats off to him, he always comes across well when interviewed generally as he also often is on talksport.  Granted, on the touchline he is in a different mindset and highly competitive which again is to be commended at his age to be that enthusiastic about winning in a highly competitive sport.

Lee Johnson has a managerial lifetime in front of him and things look very good for him right now.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Andy082005 said:

See I just dont see where this optimism comes from. "Promotion looks likely to happen in the near future"? You talk like its inevitable.

What have you seen that suggests we would be so much more successful in staying up than Cardiff? To many people have been sucked in by all the media hype

I really do find some peoples blind optimism staggering. "The way we are going about it is spot on". In what way? Personally I think we dropped an absolute bollock with our recruitment in January. 

Next season will be even harder in this league

 

You’ve seem to have been very quiet on here recently. Since we’ve been doing well, some might say..!?! 

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20 hours ago, reformed_red said:

There was a proper LJ love-in session too. However now, you'd think we had Sol Campbell in charge the way some go on :P

The media has driven football mad. Have two or three good games and all of a sudden you should be captain of England and are worth £100m. A manager wins a couple of games and suddenly he's Bill Shankly and Fergie's love child (Alex Ferguson that is, not the singer).

LJ is a really good young coach. Who I think one day will manage in the Prem (hopefully with us). I don't see the same future for wilder or Jokanovic. And Colin, well, he's just a dick.

Spot on, .....LJ is a young articulate coach, who has an agenda. I initially had my doubts, but huge credit to a certain Mr Lansdown, who had the cojones  [It does help, being a billionaire] to see the project long term.  Forget Sunderland and Leeds, LJ is a progressive forward thinking manager who will make mistakes, but will get us there eventually.  I much prefer a smart young coach who is gradually building his side to achieve his aims, rather than a old warhorse in it for bucks, and short termism. [ Possibly, a little unfair, but there you go] When the Warlock is sunning himself in Florida and counting his retirement fund, LJ will be a Premiership manager plotting our future.......................Blimey, I really hope I am right.....I Think I Am

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People bang on about the attractive football we play and slate Warnock yet the facts (yes FACTS) show we play more long balls than any other team in the Champioship apart from Bolton. Cardiff by contrast play the least number of long balls.Surprising, but true. (Source Opta stats). 

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1 minute ago, Redland said:

People bang on about the attractive football we play and slate Warnock yet the facts (yes FACTS) show we play more long balls than any other team in the Champioship apart from Bolton. Cardiff by contrast play the least number of long balls.Surprising, but true. (Source Opta stats). 

Trouble with stats like that is that a 40 yard ball down the channel, on the ground, as the full back sees the striker peeling off is considered identical to a 60 hard aimless hoof from your own penalty spot. 

Most people’s gripe with Colin’s style isn’t what his team do with the ball, it’s what they do without it. 

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10 hours ago, Andy082005 said:

The classic come back when anyone dares to criticise things

You are talking rubbish mate

 

I don’t follow your posts particularly so can’t say this is true of you, but there are definitely some posters who are absolutely prolific when things are going badly and silent when going well.

Often starting multiple threads on the evening of a bad result! 

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4 minutes ago, Redland said:

People bang on about the attractive football we play and slate Warnock yet the facts (yes FACTS) show we play more long balls than any other team in the Champioship apart from Bolton. Cardiff by contrast play the least number of long balls.Surprising, but true. (Source Opta stats). 

Very subjective and depends entirely on what counts as a ‘long ball’. 

I think in general our football is attractive and long ball football can be attractive. 

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2 minutes ago, Redland said:

People bang on about the attractive football we play and slate Warnock yet the facts (yes FACTS) show we play more long balls than any other team in the Champioship apart from Bolton. Cardiff by contrast play the least number of long balls.Surprising, but true. (Source Opta stats). 

Those stats can be manipulated to form the argument you want.

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7 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I don’t follow your posts particularly so can’t say this is true of you, but there are definitely some posters who are absolutely prolific when things are going badly and silent when going well.

Often starting multiple threads on the evening of a bad result! 

Been a poster on here for 13 years plus

Posted through the good times and the bad

The joys of being a City fan eh...

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6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Those stats can be manipulated to form the argument you want.

I don't want an argument. Just think there is a presumption on this forum that Warnock is bad and Johnson is good whereas the stats and the league table don't necessarily correspond to this. 

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6 minutes ago, Redland said:

I don't want an argument. Just think there is a presumption on this forum that Warnock is bad and Johnson is good whereas the stats and the league table don't necessarily correspond to this. 

No one is arguing, just suggesting that the way those stats are presented makes their findings very subjective.

It might count a driven ground pass that covers the quarter of a pitch as a ‘long ball’ or Pack’s ball to Bryan for his goal against United.

Long ball doesn’t mean ‘bad’ either!

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9 minutes ago, Redland said:

I don't want an argument. Just think there is a presumption on this forum that Warnock is bad and Johnson is good whereas the stats and the league table don't necessarily correspond to this. 

I think we are in agreement.

3 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

No one is arguing, just suggesting that the way those stats are presented makes their findings very subjective.

It might count a driven ground pass that covers the quarter of a pitch as a ‘long ball’ or Pack’s ball to Bryan for his goal against United.

Long ball doesn’t mean ‘bad’ either!

Indeed

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14 minutes ago, Redland said:

People bang on about the attractive football we play and slate Warnock yet the facts (yes FACTS) show we play more long balls than any other team in the Champioship apart from Bolton. Cardiff by contrast play the least number of long balls.Surprising, but true. (Source Opta stats). 

Full story on passes. (Source Whoscored.com)

Bristol City:

Passes per game 435.5

Accurate Long Balls per game 36.8

Inaccurate Long Balls per game 46.8

Long Ball accuracy 44%

Accurate Short Passes per game 284

Inaccuate Short Passes per game 67.8

Short Passing accuracy 81%

Percentage of passes being Long Ball 19%

 

Cardiff City

Passes per game 287.1

Accurate Long Balls per game 24.4

Inaccurate Long Balls per game 48.6

Long Ball accuracy 33%

Accurate Short Passes per game 150

Incaccurate Short Passes per game 64.2

Short Passing accuracy 70%

Percentage of passes being Long Ball 25%

 

 

A quarter of Cardiffs play is a long ball, less than 1/5 of ours is.

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