Hegeler Packing

[santibello]

http://www.thefalse9.com/2018/10/the-new-packing-statistic-that-is-catching-on-fast-in-the-world-of-football.html

 

Jens Hegeler trying to push towards a new statistic because he seems to think his skills aren't currently valued enough.

 

The actual statistic they are proposing seems a bit arbitrary to me, as it awards points based on other stats.

 

(Also no apologies for slightly misleading title)

[Nibor]

Seems to be a score based on the number of opponents beaten by a pass.  I'd have thought that was quite useful for analysis.  Personally I'm always frustrated by patterns of play that involve either a CB or a quarterback (i.e. a central midfielder who comes short to take the ball off the CB's feet) dithering for ages and making a pointless pass instead of bringing the ball forwards and forcing a gap.

[Unan]

 

[sephjnr]

I think as a measure of individual performances, I'd be more receptive to have successful tackles-per-attempt / tackles-per-game for defenders (with lower fouls-per-tackle as a tiebreaker), points won per goal for anyone who scores, something akin to WAR (wins above replacement) in general for positional players who want to justify new contracts - the latter would be problematic for clubs who would then justify having to pick x players for x roles, however.

[Abraham Romanovich]

Just a hunch but i feel that Jens Hegeler is being kept for the long term and would not be the least surprised if he is being considered for a coaching/ management role.

[Nogbad the Bad]

7 minutes ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

Just a hunch but i feel that Jens Hegeler is being kept for the long term and would not be the least surprised if he is being considered for a coaching/ management role.

Not according to LJ in today's post:

Is Jens Hegeler still in your plans? Could he play tomorrow?

We were very honest with Jens. We told him he could go. If he got a club that would take him on a free or a fee with a sell-on, and at that point he got his injury so he was struggling to get himself somewhere that guaranteed the same wage that he's on and the same standard, really only due to his recent history with his injuries.

Jens Hegeler is a good one to have in your squad. 6ft4, ball-playing central midfielder or a centre-half especially if we switched to a three and I would be lying to you if I said I hadn't thought about playing him in particular games.

 

 

[Coxy27]

Hegeler has got a remarkable stat for us this season...

ZERO minutes played.

Can't really see him ever making a mark here. He'll be swiftly moved on and forgotten about imo.

[Mr Popodopolous]

19 hours ago, Nibor said:

Seems to be a score based on the number of opponents beaten by a pass.  I'd have thought that was quite useful for analysis.  Personally I'm always frustrated by patterns of play that involve either a CB or a quarterback (i.e. a central midfielder who comes short to take the ball off the CB's feet) dithering for ages and making a pointless pass instead of bringing the ball forwards and forcing a gap.

Tactically, a forward pass or a quick pass isn't always the right pass. Get the frustration though, but a player who even if it's a short or sideways pass helps keep the ball moving, can in the right setup be an important role- needs to be quicker than you described though.

@Coxy27 Shame really because different tactics could help him and the team IMO- Hegeler as a defensive mid screening between the defence or perhaps between the defence and midfield in a 4-3-3 I could definitely have seen working.

[Nogbad the Bad]

5 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

Hegeler has got a remarkable stat for us this season...

ZERO minutes played.

Can't really see him ever making a mark here. He'll be swiftly moved on and forgotten about imo.

 

 

Almost 31 and never truly made his mark, or made one position his own, at any club throughout a very sporadic career.

Senior career*
Years	Team	Apps	(Gls)
2007–2009	Bayer Leverkusen II	38	(5)
2008–2014	Bayer Leverkusen	48	(3)
2009–2010	→ FC Augsburg (loan)	35	(1)
2010–2012	→ 1. FC Nürnberg (loan)	65	(4)
2011	→ 1. FC Nürnberg II (loan)	2	(0)
2014–2017	Hertha BSC	46	(1)
2014	Hertha BSC II	1	(0)
2017–	Bristol City	16	(0)

 

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Tactically, a forward pass or a quick pass isn't always the right pass. Get the frustration though, but a player who even if it's a short or sideways pass helps keep the ball moving, can in the right setup be an important role- needs to be quicker than you described though.

@Coxy27 Shame really because different tactics could help him and the team IMO- Hegeler as a defensive mid screening between the defence or perhaps between the defence and midfield in a 4-3-3 I could definitely have seen working.

Yep - I don't expect them to always pass forward, but I do expect midfielders not to take the ball short off a centre half, dither for 10 seconds and then either a) play a pass they've telegraphed so it's easily cut out, b) play a pass that puts us in trouble because they've dithered too long or c) play it back to the centre half to launch it now under pressure.  This sort of passage happens too much - it's what used to drive me nuts about LJ as a player and he's got Pack doing it now.  It leads to forward and wide players standing still waiting for it, compounding the problem and it's a feature of games we lose or play badly in.  This new type of stat might help highlight it - lots of passes but no actual opponents bypassed.

[Super]

Another in the "didn't work out" folder.

[Mr Popodopolous]

27 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Yep - I don't expect them to always pass forward, but I do expect midfielders not to take the ball short off a centre half, dither for 10 seconds and then either a) play a pass they've telegraphed so it's easily cut out, b) play a pass that puts us in trouble because they've dithered too long or c) play it back to the centre half to launch it now under pressure.  This sort of passage happens too much - it's what used to drive me nuts about LJ as a player and he's got Pack doing it now.  It leads to forward and wide players standing still waiting for it, compounding the problem and it's a feature of games we lose or play badly in.  This new type of stat might help highlight it - lots of passes but no actual opponents bypassed.

That could be, partly anyway, because, the pressure on the centre back and launching it thing, because we play a fairly tired 4-4-2 formation. We now have 2 ball playing centre backs- we have the capability in terms of type of players to move to a possession based style in say a 4-3-3, let's do it- why sign 2 ball playing centre backs and not make the most of it. 4-4-2 in a traditional sense is a crap formation to play a more possession based game.

@Super How many of those though are down to lack of ability of player or down to LJ's this season anyway sometimes overly rigid tactics?

[Coxy27]

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Yep - I don't expect them to always pass forward, but I do expect midfielders not to take the ball short off a centre half, dither for 10 seconds and then either a) play a pass they've telegraphed so it's easily cut out, b) play a pass that puts us in trouble because they've dithered too long or c) play it back to the centre half to launch it now under pressure.  This sort of passage happens too much - it's what used to drive me nuts about LJ as a player and he's got Pack doing it now.  It leads to forward and wide players standing still waiting for it, compounding the problem and it's a feature of games we lose or play badly in.  This new type of stat might help highlight it - lots of passes but no actual opponents bypassed.

I agree with you entirely.

You're never going to have a perfect picture though. Some backwards passes can be the right thing to do, and actually spur on attacks, or just alleviate pressure.

I wonder for example, how this statistic would deal with a cut-back on the byline that, although backwards, could dissect a defence and lead to a goal. It won't bypass any players in a forward motion, but could be the game's key pass.

[Super]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That could be, partly anyway, because, the pressure on the centre back and launching it thing, because we play a fairly tired 4-4-2 formation. We now have 2 ball playing centre backs- we have the capability in terms of type of players to move to a possession based style in say a 4-3-3, let's do it- why sign 2 ball playing centre backs and not make the most of it. 4-4-2 in a traditional sense is a crap formation to play a more possession based game.

@Super How many of those though are down to lack of ability of player or down to LJ's this season anyway fairly rigid tactics?

I just don't think the championship suited Hegeler, I think he does have the talent best suited in a 3 man midfield for me.

[Cowshed]

39 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

I agree with you entirely.

You're never going to have a perfect picture though. Some backwards passes can be the right thing to do, and actually spur on attacks, or just alleviate pressure.

I wonder for example, how this statistic would deal with a cut-back on the byline that, although backwards, could dissect a defence and lead to a goal. It won't bypass any players in a forward motion, but could be the game's key pass.

If the cut back leads to attempt on goal its measured as a key pass.

In regards to the opening post these new packing stats already exist. Clubs measure passes that break lines frequently e.g. First line break pass. second line break pass, switches made = metric values to be assessed. 

[simon uk]

2 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

Not according to LJ in today's post:

Is Jens Hegeler still in your plans? Could he play tomorrow?

We were very honest with Jens. We told him he could go. If he got a club that would take him on a free or a fee with a sell-on, and at that point he got his injury so he was struggling to get himself somewhere that guaranteed the same wage that he's on and the same standard, really only due to his recent history with his injuries.

Jens Hegeler is a good one to have in your squad. 6ft4, ball-playing central midfielder or a centre-half especially if we switched to a three and I would be lying to you if I said I hadn't thought about playing him in particular games.

 

 

Hed be lying if he said he hadnt thought aboutplaying him??? He signed him!!! What a fine investment of thousands per week in wages. Like numerous others

[Davefevs]

8 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

 

 

Almost 31 and never truly made his mark, or made one position his own, at any club throughout a very sporadic career.

Senior career*
Years	Team	Apps	(Gls)
2007–2009	Bayer Leverkusen II	38	(5)
2008–2014	Bayer Leverkusen	48	(3)
2009–2010	→ FC Augsburg (loan)	35	(1)
2010–2012	→ 1. FC Nürnberg (loan)	65	(4)
2011	→ 1. FC Nürnberg II (loan)	2	(0)
2014–2017	Hertha BSC	46	(1)
2014	Hertha BSC II	1	(0)
2017–	Bristol City	16	(0)

 

Or another view that he’s pushed himself to play at the best level attainable knowing he’s not quite good enough to be first-choice.  Rather than sit in his comfort zone.

I think we saw the best of Jens at RCB in a 3, in his first few games.  I think he did perfectly fine alongside Wright at the start of last season.

If he does get a chance, hope he takes it, because I do think he has quality in him.

[Red Skin]

Another one I would have liked to see played in a back three.  Another Seebok for me.  Never really given the opportunity to shine.

[Curr Avon]

I'd like to see Jena get at least a cameo in central midfield. With Korey out long-term we only have Pack and Brownhill, plus that young feller who trains well, but is glued to the bench.

[Nogbad the Bad]

On 03/10/2018 at 19:07, Curr Avon said:

I'd like to see Jena get at least a cameo in central midfield. With Korey out long-term we only have Pack and Brownhill, plus that young feller who trains well, but is glued to the bench.

Huge shame about his injury, but not sure if Korey was key in LJ's plans for the midfield this season anyway.

Fit but on the bench for the opening games iirc.

Fairly plain LJ doesn't feel Hegeler, Morrell or Walsh have much to offer at the moment, which is curious as 2 signed under his watch.

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

15 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

Huge shame about his injury, but not sure if Korey was key in LJ's plans for the midfield this season anyway.

Fit but on the bench for the opening games iirc.

Fairly plain LJ doesn't feel Hegeler, Morrell or Walsh have much to offer at the moment, which is curious as 2 signed under his watch.

Walsh has been on the bench for every game this season, which indicates to me that LJ thinks he does have a future.  I'm disappointed that Morrell has not had a chance this season, but I can only see Hegeler as an emergency Centre Back.

[Nogbad the Bad]

On 02/10/2018 at 19:03, Davefevs said:

Or another view that he’s pushed himself to play at the best level attainable knowing he’s not quite good enough to be first-choice.  Rather than sit in his comfort zone.

If he's signing for clubs in the full knowledge that he's not good enough to be first choice, as you suggest above, I'd say he's very much sitting in his comfort zone. If that's the case, he's apparently content to be a bit part player making intermittent appearances rather than a player who forces his way into the team to make a position his own.

A comfort zone, if that's what it is, that he seems to have been inhabiting for large parts of his career, and been very well paid for - certainly at BCFC.

Interesting that LJ says he's unlikely to find a club of similar standard or one that will pay similar wages.

LJ quickly goes on to put this down to his 'recent history of injuries', and there may be something in that, but a cynic might say it may equally be because he's not actually good enough in the Championship to make any one position his own, we should never have signed him in the first place, and thus we've been overpaying a player who we've belatedly realised is simply not an asset at this level even when fully fit.

[Davefevs]

@Nogbad the Bad was playing devils advocate to some extent. 

It was a strange signing on paper, and although I think he actually could be a very useful player for us, I don’t see it happening. 

[Nogbad the Bad]

11 hours ago, Davefevs said:

@Nogbad the Bad was playing devils advocate to some extent. 

It was a strange signing on paper, and although I think he actually could be a very useful player for us, I don’t see it happening. 

I remember being intrigued by Hegeler's signing - an apparently experienced, tall German u.21 midfielder/CB - sounded good. The alarm bells started to ring when I looked at his career record and then again on first view when he seemed overly gangly and basically a bit weak.

I also remember being on OTIB late one night when the signing of Ricky Foster was announced - again on paper a fairly exciting signing, Scottish u.21 RB/midfielder with solid experience at Aberdeen and Rangers and we know how disappointingly that turned out.

Some similarities then - but Foster did at least make 50 apps. for City, so on paper we got some value for our money, whereas it looks like Hegeler won't even make 20.

[Davefevs]

5 minutes ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

I remember being intrigued by Hegeler's signing - an apparently experienced, tall German u.21 midfielder/CB - sounded good. The alarm bells started to ring when I looked at his career record and then again on first view when he seemed overly gangly and basically a bit weak.

I also remember being on OTIB late one night when the signing of Ricky Foster was announced - again on paper a fairly exciting signing, Scottish u.21 RB/midfielder with solid experience at Aberdeen and Rangers and we know how disappointingly that turned out.

Some similarities then - but Foster did at least make 50 apps. for City, so on paper we got some value for our money, whereas it looks like Hegeler won't even make 20.

I thought those first few games for us as RCB in a three he looked like a classier, less 100mph version of Ayling. 

I thought he showed the ability to play in CM (like most of his career) and could influence further forward. 

LJ thought the same!

Ultimately, Fulham at home was a shocker all around, and fans made their minds up as did LJ. I don’t think he was the problem that night, 4 defenders marking 1 forward leaving overloads in midfield that Hegeler couldn’t cope with, not the rest of the midfield. 

He then started last season at CB and did decently enough, but Baker signing and Flint not leaving left him down the pecking order. 

Got injured v Leeds and that signalled the end of his time here, well at least until we can find someone to take him off our hands. 

Think we as fans haven’t seen the best of Jens...but that’s football. Shame.