Roadrunner Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 Hope Lee pins this up in the dressing rooms. With talk of a Championship return, how high or low could your club finish in the league this season? Data guru Ben Mayhew has simulated every possible result from the remaining games and calculated each club's range of possible final league positions - in addition to probabilities for each standing. The results reveal it's all to play for in the race for promotion and the battle for survival... How it works Each club’s attacking and defensive strength have been rated using an expected goals model, which measures the quality of chances they create and allow. These ratings were then used to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times to measure the probability of each club finishing in each league position. The results Leeds appear to have dodged another capitulation with a 98 per cent chance of achieving automatic promotion as winners (71 per cent) or runners-up (27 per cent), with West Brom handed a 90-per-cent chance of a top-two finish. The model suggests Fulham and Brentford have an outside chance of making the top two (both around five per cent) but are runaway favourites to finish among the play-off places (both 90 per cent). ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADVERT Promote health. Save lives. Serve the vulnerable. Visit who.int Other realistic play-off candidates include Nottingham Forest (82 per cent), Millwall (33 per cent), Preston (28 per cent), Cardiff (23 per cent), Blackburn (15 per cent), Swansea (11 per cent) and Bristol City (10 per cent). Those predictions suggest Millwall will leapfrog Bristol City and Preston for the final play-off place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 Just posted on another thread that if we play and perform in the manner we did for the majority of the season then we can, IMO, expect to lose out on a play off spot. We fundamentally weren't creating enough chances. The reverse fixtures of our remaining 9 games saw us get 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses for a total of 13 points (xg reckoning that 12 would have been fair). We scored 11 from 88 shots and conceded 10 from 123 shots. From memory there were some good performances at Stoke, Cardiff and Preston (imo Preston away was one of our best performances of the season). But also some stinkers such as Sheff Wed away and Blackburn at home. 13 more points would see us end on 68 - generally not enough to get 6th, and disappointingly fewer than last season. I'd say a 10% chance of the top 6 is probably a little harsh, but not too far off. The big caveat is that the crazy 9 game condensed season means that to an extent all bets are off. Also the strike force we now have does give me hope, and Afobe's return in particular can hopefully take us back to the very early performances we saw last summer. However, I can't shake the feeling that we will still fall just short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roe Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 Last season's form is almost irrelevant now imo. It's gonna be like a mini season, and over the past few years we've been pretty impressive after 9 games or so. With the squad we've got and position we're in, I reckon we've an excellent chance of getting into the play offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isawjonshaw Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, Roe said: Last season's form is almost irrelevant now imo. It's gonna be like a mini season, and over the past few years we've been pretty impressive after 9 games or so. With the squad we've got and position we're in, I reckon we've an excellent chance of getting into the play offs. Agreed. If we have Afobe back I’ve every confidence. For me he was as close to the final piece of the jigsaw as you can get. Top quality forward who brings the best out of others (Kasey especially). Up the City!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slartibartfast Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, Roadrunner said: Hope Lee pins this up in the dressing rooms. With talk of a Championship return, how high or low could your club finish in the league this season? Data guru Ben Mayhew has simulated every possible result from the remaining games and calculated each club's range of possible final league positions - in addition to probabilities for each standing. The results reveal it's all to play for in the race for promotion and the battle for survival... How it works Each club’s attacking and defensive strength have been rated using an expected goals model, which measures the quality of chances they create and allow. These ratings were then used to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times to measure the probability of each club finishing in each league position. The results Leeds appear to have dodged another capitulation with a 98 per cent chance of achieving automatic promotion as winners (71 per cent) or runners-up (27 per cent), with West Brom handed a 90-per-cent chance of a top-two finish. The model suggests Fulham and Brentford have an outside chance of making the top two (both around five per cent) but are runaway favourites to finish among the play-off places (both 90 per cent). ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW THIS ADVERT Promote health. Save lives. Serve the vulnerable. Visit who.int Other realistic play-off candidates include Nottingham Forest (82 per cent), Millwall (33 per cent), Preston (28 per cent), Cardiff (23 per cent), Blackburn (15 per cent), Swansea (11 per cent) and Bristol City (10 per cent). Those predictions suggest Millwall will leapfrog Bristol City and Preston for the final play-off place. No one likes (rates) us, we don't care ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pillred Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Roe said: Last season's form is almost irrelevant now imo. It's gonna be like a mini season, and over the past few years we've been pretty impressive after 9 games or so. With the squad we've got and position we're in, I reckon we've an excellent chance of getting into the play offs. I think the supporters of our rivals will look at our potential strike force and probably come to the same conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyderInACan Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 I will cry if Millwall get into the playoffs instead of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
77 punk Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 there was an article in the observer on sunday, which looked at the german results since they started playing again.there was no big quota of home wins ,the results were very random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC Rich Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 I would guess like @Roe said the data will be less useful than normal. Form before the lockdown is going to be far less important than if the season had played out. Any momentum will have been lost. We have important players back and I would assume players who have been playing with knock (Kalas for example) will be fully fit. A lot will depend who makes the most of this mini pre season and gets their players up to speed quickest. It's a mini season within the season and we start 1 point of the pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 22 minutes ago, 77 punk said: there was an article in the observer on sunday, which looked at the german results since they started playing again.there was no big quota of home wins ,the results were very random. Yep, thanks, this is what I mentioned on the other thread. We've got 5 home and 4 away games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Roe said: Last season's form is almost irrelevant now imo. It's gonna be like a mini season, and over the past few years we've been pretty impressive after 9 games or so. With the squad we've got and position we're in, I reckon we've an excellent chance of getting into the play offs. Yeah our team is potentially a different animal now (better or worse!). Afobe is like a new signing [cliche klaxon]. Wells, Henriksen and Benkovic have all had time to learn our methodology. Nagy has had time to heal his foot. We're a different proposition now and I'm sure a few other clubs will be too. Past form goes largely out the window now and these crude predictive tools just won't capture that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo88 Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 If “dara guru” Ben Mathew is such a guru, why is he wasting his time on this? Anyone who could accurately predict the future of such a variable thing as football would surely make a fortune by placing a few bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonBristolian Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 I honestly think it is near impossible to predict what effect playing in empty stadiums will have, especially on teams like Leeds who are used to playing in a cauldron of noise. These last 9 games are going to have as much to do with how players adapt psychologically as they do ability. It's been alleged in the past that we have players than can do it on the training pitch but can't do it in front of a screaming crowds on a Saturday. Those players might be about to come into their element... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 I also think that the more teams that have games against others with nothing to play for, but pride, have a big advantage. The drive & determination to get fully fit & focused has to missing for them, surely..? It's not like a normal season scenario, where so. Etimes it allows them to relax and play without pressure or fear (often a beneficial factor) To get fully 100% fit and on point, with just 9 games ahead and nothing to play for, in empty stadiums, must be very hard and those who have such fixtures (at first, at least) really have an edge in the race for playoffs/promotion/survival, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midred Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 No ones mentioned the effect on the referee of playing in an empty stadium? May even the decisions up abit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roadrunner Posted June 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Midred said: No ones mentioned the effect on the referee of playing in an empty stadium? May even the decisions up abit! I have been watching the matches in Germany and have been impressed by the officials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roe Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 50 minutes ago, Midred said: No ones mentioned the effect on the referee of playing in an empty stadium? May even the decisions up abit! Definitely makes their jobs a lot easier that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendyredredrobin Posted June 1, 2020 Report Share Posted June 1, 2020 We will defo make the playoff's. I would put money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murraysrightplum Posted June 2, 2020 Report Share Posted June 2, 2020 Think this format will really suit us if we can just get someone scoring. Has given us time to get afobe back and Wells will be more settled in. We usually start seasons pretty well but fade at the end so this could be perfect for us. Plus home form was dreadful, maybe taking the crowd out could help us in a weird way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garland-sweden Posted June 2, 2020 Report Share Posted June 2, 2020 Got the feeling we will be top six, hope the feeling is right. COYR!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oh Louie louie Posted June 2, 2020 Report Share Posted June 2, 2020 Good point made by pongo. Did Ben make any predictions for the prem, the year leicester won it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoystonFoote'snephew Posted June 2, 2020 Report Share Posted June 2, 2020 These so-called data gurus couldn't predict the election result in a unicameral state. They are the equivalent of a guy with a pin closing his eyes and trying to pick the winner of the Grand National. No one knows how the season will finish and what the effect of playing behind closed doors will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted June 2, 2020 Report Share Posted June 2, 2020 There are lies, damn lies, statistics and xG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mihai Posted June 2, 2020 Report Share Posted June 2, 2020 Playing on empty stadiums is good for us. We play at home like we are away, so we will fell like in an away game. More wins home coming hahaa. 9 away games, 7 wins that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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