Transfer silly season starting???

[1960maaan]

Well, colour me shocked. Desperate I guess, Newcastle have 2 strikers injured, and maybe they don't want Howe to spend the big, big money (yet?).
To me, that seems a lot of money, not so much if he gets the goals to keep them up though.

 

https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1480985653932343298?s=20

[Spoons]

If he scores 10 goals and keeps them in league, money well spent. 
Good signing , experienced premier league player.

[Engvall’s Splinter]

Weakening a rival also. 

[Thornbury Red]

Weakens a relegation rival as well

[Monkeh]

Sensible money spent proven scorer at that level,

Weakens Burnley

 

[RUSSEL85]

I think that’s a pretty good buy to be honest. Proven player and 20M in January isn’t a huge amount these days 

[Monkeh]

3 minutes ago, RUSSEL85 said:

I think that’s a pretty good buy to be honest. Proven player and 20M in January isn’t a huge amount these days 

20m when you basically have a bottomless pit of money isn't anything

[The Journalist]

£20m for a striker with a better than one-in-three record for Burnley in the Premier League? I'd say that was pretty decent business given the state of the league table.

 

 

[redsquirrel]

gives burnley 20m to buy kp off us

[B-Rizzle]

Actually a great signing imo.

1) Weakens Burnley

2) Strengthens Newcastle for relegation run-in with Wilson injured.

3) if Newcastle stay up its £20m well spent even though Wood would get replaced in the summer.

4) If they go down, they’ve got a great striker to help them get back up who won’t kick-off or down tools etc.

 

 

[Redrascal2]

55 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

Well, colour me shocked. Desperate I guess, Newcastle have 2 strikers injured, and maybe they don't want Howe to spend the big, big money (yet?).
To me, that seems a lot of money, not so much if he gets the goals to keep them up though.

 

https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1480985653932343298?s=20

I don't think money is much of an issue for Newcastle anymore.

[ExiledAjax]

57 minutes ago, Spoons said:

If he scores 10 goals and keeps them in league, money well spent. 

Based on the history of most January signings he's very unlikely to get anywhere near 10 goals. Even 5 would be an exceptional return. Fewer than 5 would be in line with a usual January signing. Basically, signing a striker in January very, very rarely pays off. Each goal scored tends to be worth about 0.5 points in the Premier League, and the vast majority of January strikers don't score more than 4 goals before the end of the season - so if this signing goes ahead Newcastle have maybe spent 20m to get 2 points.

This was discussed two years ago when we signed Wells. @Coppello posted this article https://theathletic.com/1518750/2020/01/10/january-window-transfer-money/ from the Athletic.

Most telling is this extract: 

No one can forget Fredi Bobic keeping Bolton Wanderers up in 2002, Emile Mpenza at Manchester City in 2007 (he in fact arrived as a free agent in February), Ilan at West Ham United in 2010, or Dame N’Doye at Hull City in 2015.

But these stories stand out because they worked out, and the majority of strikers in January do not.

“The biggest spike in demand is for strikers in January window,” says Chaudhuri. “But about half of all the strikers that are bought in January don’t even score a goal between then and the end of the season. So this idea that you can just get a guy in who will score you 10 goals is a complete fallacy.”

Strikers make up 20 per cent of January signings in the big five leagues, according to 21st Club. But only 14 per cent of those strikers scored five or more league goals during their first half-season, and 55 per cent of them fail to score a single league goal.

The only January arrival in recent years who has made it to 10 goals in the second half of the season was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. But he was an established 28-year-old star, and Arsenal paid Borussia Dortmund £56m for him in January 2018.

“Aubameyang is the only one who’s done it, which goes to show,” Chaudhuri says, “you need to go for the complete no-brainer, otherwise you’re not going to get a result.” Even strikers who turned out to be successful at their clubs — Luis Suarez at Liverpool, Edin Dzeko at Manchester City, each arriving in January 2011 — managed four and six goals respectively in their first half-season with their new club.

Note that the above may now be out of date slightly, but off the top of my head I can't think of a signing in January 2020 or 2021 who made it to 10 goals before the end of the season. Bruno Fernandes got 8 between Jan 2020 and the end of that season, but as with Aubameyang, that's an exception that proves the rule, and cost Utd nearer 100m than the 20m Wood is going for.

@Coppello kindly copied out the full article roughly halfway down page 23, link below.

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[AshtonRobin21]

A possible scenario:

Burnley are credited with an interest in Lyndon Dykes (QPR).

QPR could then turn their attention towards Nahki?

 

[GrahamC]

2 minutes ago, AshtonRobin21 said:

A possible scenario:

Burnley are credited with an interest in Lyndon Dykes (QPR).

QPR could then turn their attention towards Nahki?

 

Dykes is being linked with a lot of clubs, Brighton are another.

Not too far fetched that if they do sell they come back for Wells.

[The Bard]

£20 million for Chris Wood be a great signing for Newcastle.  How much did Joelinton cost FFS? 

Weaken a rival, give the team a focal point, probably score 5 or 6 goals.  

If they stay up he's a proven forward in the EPL and would probably be a decent squad player for 2/3 years.  If they go down, he's good for 20 goals + in the championship, especially if paired with Wilson.  Absolute no brainer especially if there is a release clause.

Edited January 11, 2022 by The Bard

[AshtonRobin21]

8 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Dykes is being linked with a lot of clubs, Brighton are another.

Not too far fetched that if they do sell they come back for Wells.

Warburton has a tendancy to recruit players he has previously worked with. 

Signed a couple of his former Brentford players, whilst also being linked to Harlee Dean. 

Wouldn't surprise me to see him come after Nahki if they were to lose Dykes. 

[Edgy Red]

Wood would be a decent signing for The Geordies. Its not a massive fee by modern standards and he knows The Prem inside out and what is required.

If the worst happened and they did get relegated then he is the sort of player that would still give 100% in The Champ.

It would leave Burnley in a tricky situation and it will be interesting to see who Dyche goes for as a replacement.

[YGBjammy]

Transfer fees are always about how much the buying club is willing to pay. Newcastle can probably add 20-30% on to any "standard" transfer fee just because everyone knows they have tons of cash now.

[DaveF]

2 hours ago, 1960maaan said:

Well, colour me shocked. Desperate I guess, Newcastle have 2 strikers injured, and maybe they don't want Howe to spend the big, big money (yet?).
To me, that seems a lot of money, not so much if he gets the goals to keep them up though.

 

https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1480985653932343298?s=20

Great signing, hardly desperate!

[BS4 on Tour...]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

“The biggest spike in demand is for strikers in January window,” says Chaudhuri. “But about half of all the strikers that are bought in January don’t even score a goal between then and the end of the season.”

Wow - that is an incredible statement! As you posted it, can you give some examples of the 50% of strikers who were bought in January and then scored zero goals in the next five months ... cheers!

[ExiledAjax]

27 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Wow - that is an incredible statement! As you posted it, can you give some examples of the 50% of strikers who were bought in January and then scored zero goals in the next five months ... cheers!

Lois Diony (admittedly a loan in the Champ so not quite within the remit).

More relevant perhaps is Swansea buying Ayew, who didn't score in the 12 games he played. That's cited in the article. Some will fail due to injuries or lack of selection, but I'm willing to believe the stat.

I posted it, via @Coppello, but the claim is made within the article that i linked to.

Edited January 11, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[Oh Louie louie]

That was a game and a half, when he scored in that 6 pointer against coventry.

[Riaz]

Talk of mbappe, haaland etc...

 you get Chris Wood

[054123]

 Does it weaken Burnley?

[Scare_Man]

13 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Based on the history of most January signings he's very unlikely to get anywhere near 10 goals. Even 5 would be an exceptional return. Fewer than 5 would be in line with a usual January signing. Basically, signing a striker in January very, very rarely pays off. Each goal scored tends to be worth about 0.5 points in the Premier League, and the vast majority of January strikers don't score more than 4 goals before the end of the season - so if this signing goes ahead Newcastle have maybe spent 20m to get 2 points.

This was discussed two years ago when we signed Wells. @Coppello posted this article https://theathletic.com/1518750/2020/01/10/january-window-transfer-money/ from the Athletic.

Most telling is this extract: 

No one can forget Fredi Bobic keeping Bolton Wanderers up in 2002, Emile Mpenza at Manchester City in 2007 (he in fact arrived as a free agent in February), Ilan at West Ham United in 2010, or Dame N’Doye at Hull City in 2015.

But these stories stand out because they worked out, and the majority of strikers in January do not.

“The biggest spike in demand is for strikers in January window,” says Chaudhuri. “But about half of all the strikers that are bought in January don’t even score a goal between then and the end of the season. So this idea that you can just get a guy in who will score you 10 goals is a complete fallacy.”

Strikers make up 20 per cent of January signings in the big five leagues, according to 21st Club. But only 14 per cent of those strikers scored five or more league goals during their first half-season, and 55 per cent of them fail to score a single league goal.

The only January arrival in recent years who has made it to 10 goals in the second half of the season was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. But he was an established 28-year-old star, and Arsenal paid Borussia Dortmund £56m for him in January 2018.

“Aubameyang is the only one who’s done it, which goes to show,” Chaudhuri says, “you need to go for the complete no-brainer, otherwise you’re not going to get a result.” Even strikers who turned out to be successful at their clubs — Luis Suarez at Liverpool, Edin Dzeko at Manchester City, each arriving in January 2011 — managed four and six goals respectively in their first half-season with their new club.

Note that the above may now be out of date slightly, but off the top of my head I can't think of a signing in January 2020 or 2021 who made it to 10 goals before the end of the season. Bruno Fernandes got 8 between Jan 2020 and the end of that season, but as with Aubameyang, that's an exception that proves the rule, and cost Utd nearer 100m than the 20m Wood is going for.

@Coppello kindly copied out the full article roughly halfway down page 23, link below.

 

I wonder how many of these signings, and I'm referring mostly to the Premier League striker signings, have come from outside of that league - either from another country or stepping up from Championship.  I'd wager a fairly high percentage and takes a while (if ever based on these stats) to get accustomed to the speed and strength of the Prem.  Wood is a Premier League ready and think should do well for the Toon immediately and pretty much puts another nail in Burnley's coffin this season.

[Isawjonshaw]

14 hours ago, Engvall’s Splinter said:

Weakening a rival also. 

Spot on.  A c@nts trick maybe?  I do hope Newcastle drop!

[Scare_Man]

30 minutes ago, Isawjonshaw said:

Spot on.  A c@nts trick maybe?  I do hope Newcastle drop!

Matty Taylor anyone?

[ExiledAjax]

41 minutes ago, Scare_Man said:

I wonder how many of these signings, and I'm referring mostly to the Premier League striker signings, have come from outside of that league - either from another country or stepping up from Championship.

I don't know. It's a valid point, but it still doesn't guarantee goals. Look at Josh King last season. He moved from Bournemouth to Everton on deadline day last January. Now yes Bournemouth were Championship at that time, but King had played for them in the Prem in the 5 seasons prior, scoring 48 in about 150 games. He was what many would call a "proven goalscorer" at Premier League level. He played 137 mins for Everton, across 11 games, and scored 0 goals.

For the record, I don't think Wood will score 0 for Newcastle. I think he may get 3 or 4. But it's a fallacy to expect January strikers to revolutionise a club's season. It's possible, but far from probable.

As for weakening Burnley. My question in reply is "So what? How does that help?" If Newcastle go above Burnley they go from 19th...and relegated, to 18th...and relegated. It does nothing for them. In fact you could argue it makes it more likely that Watford will beat Burnley on 18 January. Seeing as it is Watford in 17th that Newcastle actually need to catch...that seems fairly dumb. 

[Isawjonshaw]

20 minutes ago, Scare_Man said:

Matty Taylor anyone?

Hahaha fair point!  But they were not in the same league and those scabs don’t count!  

[Bazooka Joe]

12 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Lois Diony (admittedly a loan in the Champ so not quite within the remit).

More relevant perhaps is Swansea buying Ayew, who didn't score in the 12 games he played. That's cited in the article. Some will fail due to injuries or lack of selection, but I'm willing to believe the stat.

I posted it, via @Coppello, but the claim is made within the article that i linked to.

Slightly off topic,, but Diony's loan spell here was an absolute disaster.

Dijon clearly knew he'd never cut the mustard. He still probably Angers the fans of certain clubs he has played for.

Edited January 12, 2022 by Bazooka Joe