Where do we go from here

[Mr Popodopolous]

On 09/04/2022 at 19:58, Tin Soldier said:

The Happy Clappers will disagree but you are so right. Mistake after mistake. The facts speak for themselves as you rightly state.. People on here say we might get bought by a dodgy Arab (blah, blah, blah) but this club needs new owners with the correct pedigree quickly because Bristol City are heading for relegation next season.

Would not be surprised if Lansdown sells soon TBH.

Think most fans have woken up to the Lansdownes mistakes in recent seasons. Changing the manager will make no difference as the “problems at the top”will still be in charge.
Real shame, because if we kept some of our best players we would be in the top 6 - fact. No guarantee of promotion I know but we would be challenging.

The ownership bit doesn't matter on one level- we will still have an FFP constraint next season or have to sell to buy whether SL sold up tomorrow or not. Granted that is the fault of SL ultimately- or SL, Mark Ashton and Lee Johnson.

Possibly the way the club is run might change but a new owner doesn't reset or fundamentally change the amount of cash we can throw at it.

Had we kept some of our better players we might also have been charged with FFP, embargoed etc- it works both ways. How long would you hold off on selling?

If we make some big transfer profits this summer the dial moves, but beyond that I don't know how much we will be allowed to spend. If we don't generate a good profit or good sell on cash, I'm not sure we can spend much at all. Unlikely our revenue will surge is it?

Edited April 11, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[RobintheRed Red]

4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Him and Burt had a good eye for players, adding to the promotion crew:

• Gray and Maguire
• Fredericks
• Liam Moore
• Baker
• Callum Robinson

Agree Dave a couple of players he needed could have saved the chairman a lot of money long term and although league one what a joy to watch it was with cotts onboard .

[Mr Sno]

I don't know but one thing for sure is that it is going to be messy

[Mr Popodopolous]

Putting finances aside to an extent.

I expect a challenging season will be likely. My aim is lower midtable, some kind of Cup run or two would be good for morale but not at the expense of staying up.

Develop players, continue doing so. Keep as many key players or secondary key players as financially viable, offload as many players who have run their course as possible. Continue to work on the style while working on the defensive structure too, 4-3-3?

Hope that the injuries improve too.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Alan Dicks]

On 10/04/2022 at 04:20, desert said:

Down to the lake I fear….

For years i sang “Down to the lake cafe” :laugh:

[Davefevs]

15 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Putting finances aside to an extent.

I expect a challenging season will be likely. My aim is lower midtable, some kind of Cup run or two would be good for morale but not at the expense of staying up.

Develop players, continue doing so. Keep as many key players or secondary key players as financially viable, offload as many players who have run their course as possible. Continue to work on the style while working on the defensive structure too, 4-3-3?

Hope that the injuries improve too.

I’m gonna wait til I see where we are squad wise for the first game (albeit window still open).

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, Davefevs said:

I’m gonna wait til I see where we are squad wise for the first game (albeit window still open).

Probably sensible, who we retain and can move on and if finances allow bring in could definitely change things. Change things in any direction.

[WessexPest]

I’ve always been cynical of any club owner who sticks his own name on a stand. Deadly Doug springs to mind.

Lansdown has made so many errors in his time but everyone else ends up carrying the can for them. Time to go, Steve.

[BUTOR]

The break for the World Cup provides an excellent ‘stick or twist’ moment for struggling clubs. I expect Pearson to be given until then if he hasn’t bruised boardroom egos to the point of no repair. 

When he came in I saw it as a sign of a new strategy and approach and an acceptance that the old one had failed. Maybe that is what Pearson thought too, given his ‘surprise’ at being considered for the job. Now I’m not so sure. At first he talked of an ambition from top to bottom, now he talks of a passiveness. It’s all extremely odd, we are indeed a ‘strange club’ and the reason for that has been much debated over the years but never agreed upon. 

I get the feeling SL/JL are becoming increasingly detached from Bristol City mens FC and the passiveness is likely a result of that. Not enough people are considering that the club is on the market for a sale or an investment. 
 

Why would they go through the difficulty of planning for an ambitious long term overhaul when they have no plans to reap its potential rewards? 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Bouncearoundtheground

[1960maaan]

42 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Putting finances aside to an extent.

I expect a challenging season will be likely. My aim is lower midtable, some kind of Cup run or two would be good for morale but not at the expense of staying up.

Develop players, continue doing so. Keep as many key players or secondary key players as financially viable, offload as many players who have run their course as possible. Continue to work on the style while working on the defensive structure too, 4-3-3?

Hope that the injuries improve too.

 

28 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I’m gonna wait til I see where we are squad wise for the first game (albeit window still open).

25 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Probably sensible, who we retain and can move on and if finances allow bring in could definitely change things. Change things in any direction.

Last year, looking at this year, I expected struggle. I did think we would be slightly higher, but only the odd place so it doesn't count.
This year I have absolutely no idea.  The ends of the scale are so far apart, and all things in the middle so different.

Scenario 1 : We get sell ons from 2/3 players, the FFP rules are in our favour, the recruitment nails it and pre season really gels the squad.

Scenario 2 : No sell ons, FFP leave no leeway to spend, we don't get our targets and have basically the same squad. Pearson carries on as we are. 

In reality I think we have to wait, so many things can change and we can't even be sure the manager will be here. I think it will be stages, the first being end of the season where we will get some silence to start, June feels like the time Pearson will be given next year or the push. 
I really wish we would get our Dog or Head of recruitment in place and act like a real Club.

[pongo88]

On 10/04/2022 at 08:36, redapple said:

 

 

A goalkeeper with concentration, a defence with some aggression, a midfield with some speed and stamina, forwards who move in the box ( backwards as well as stationary) and wing(ers)backs who can pull a ball back and not just put it on the big centre backs forehead are all required either by replacing or coaching the current mob. Some collective heart also needed. 
I don't know how to achieve this. I thought NP would have the answers but not so sure now. It’s not rocket science. The basic resources are there but it’s getting them to work together properly and more efficiently. 
 

I agree that’s what we need, but basically it’s nearly a completely new team. With the current financial constraints it’s extremely unlikely to happen in the summer. As that man at Horfield keeps saying “these things take time”.

On 10/04/2022 at 17:12, Loosey Boy said:

You honestly think that SL will get rid of Nige? @Davefevs

If he does, surely he will give him the summer and 10-15 games of next season?

I sincerely hope NP is given some help to wheel and deal in the summer and then at least until the World Cup break to see how it goes. It NP leaves at the end of the season another typical SL appointment will be made. This poor soul will arrive without realising how bad things are and by the time he does it will be too late. 

[Alan Dicks]

The club is in an absolute shambolic mess from top to bottom, barring a miracle we are down next season.

The owners couldn’t organise a prayer in a mosque, let alone a football club.

lansdown, this is your mess I’m afraid.

[WessexPest]

Changing the manager, although possibly necessary unfortunately if we start the new season poorly, is not going to be the cure for all of our ills. The club is being badly run from the very top. Nige is responsible for the performances on the pitch but the rot had set in long before he arrived in the Westcountry.

[Guest]

Just watching Hudders v Luton both in play offs, they seem to be no great shakes but what have they got that we havent...............thinking maybe a defence and a midfield

[Bristol Oil Services]

1 hour ago, WessexPest said:

I’ve always been cynical of any club owner who sticks his own name on a stand. Deadly Doug springs to mind.

Lansdown has made so many errors in his time but everyone else ends up carrying the can for them. Time to go, Steve.

Yeah, Steve. And take yer stand with you. 

[Sleepy1968]

23 minutes ago, Bristol Oil Services said:

Yeah, Steve. And take yer stand with you. 

Yeah. We won't need it where we're headed

[Bedred31]

If you can’t afford to buy players and refuse to utilise the loan market, then you’ve left yourselves very few options- free transfers basically. MacGregors article today notes that an on the cheap strategy can be successful, but generally it depends on good free transfers and careful use of the loan market.( Also worth pointing out in articles like this that success is the exception not the norm- generally spending no money in football leads to relegation). I like and support NP personally- his likely replacement is the stuff of nightmares- but I can’t see him being here come September.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Unsure what to think in some ways. In theory there is a useful core to work around when fit, I'd rather 4-3-3 than 3-5-2 too but that's a different debate.

GK:

Bentley, O'Leary

RB:

Tanner, Vyner

CB:

Atkinson, Baker, Cundy, Kalas, Klose

LB:

DaSilva, Pring

CM:

James, Williams, Massengo

Other mids:

Benarous, Palmer, Scott

Forwards of varying types:

Martin, Semenyo, Wells, Weimann

Other young players:

Bell, Conway

Finances are tight. Moving on players, both a necessity and challenging scenario.

Movable parts

I expect that King and O'Dowda will be out. What will be the scenario with Baker moving forward?

Pick one or both of Cundy and Klose to retain if cash is tight?

Outgoings I would be keen on are for Moore and Bakinson to be sold although any news on it?

Palmer and Wells too if possible. Plus perhaps we might need to bite the bullet on Kalas and Massengo not that I am keen on the latter.

Thay would leave us with something like:

GK:

Bentley, O'Leary

RB:

Tanner, Vyner

CB:

Atkinson, Baker (?), Cundy (?), Klose (?)

LB:

DaSilva, Pring

CM:

James, Williams

Other midfielders:

Benarous, Scott

Forwards of varying types:

Martin, Semenyo, Weimann

Other young players:

Bell, Conway

Would leave us with both a squad lacking in depth and in some areas experience. Needing a specialist RB unless we trust Vyner as back up, anything ranging from 1-4 CBs, 2 new CMs probably and maybe one more forward- or a bigger role For Bell and Conway in terms of filling that gap.

Problem is what kind of budget would we have to play with in summer 2022? It could be a very unenviable position to be in. Harder still if we cannot find takers for Moore, Bakinson, Palmer and Wells.

[exAtyeoMax]

On 10/04/2022 at 19:04, billywedlock said:

It is the lack of any strategy these last 20 years plus employing so many people with zero experience of getting us where we are told we are aiming . The SC and Burt turnaround was impressive and they built a hungry close knit group that excelled . Hey so did GJ . SC was not backed as he should have been , we got lost , then appointed 2 people who were blagging  their way forward . As soon as the L1 team was broken up we went  back to type. Paying too much for average players . I mean how many times have we done this ? Where was the plan to build a Prem club ? We followed not one exa one of others in the same scenario . Result , the mess we have now . We can change NP ( but who ??? ) yet the issues are the same . It took 20 years to get a decent training ground . We have had no guidance with expertise at the top of the club and this is why SL has wasted millions . He has not taken advice or employed people who have an idea or experience in how to progress . He told all the fans it’s his money his club . 
 

Strangely, we probably have in Gould and Pearson 2 people who can actually put together a cohesive plan to sort our malaise . But we have an unhappy fanbase due to the current malaise lasting years and wanting an instant fix . That is fanciful thinking . This is not change Pearson and we are sorted . It is deeper than that . It is going to need a comprehensive overhaul . Yes change NP , maybe there is someone  better , but the real issues remain and seem no closer to being sorted .

Take recruitment, so much talk on here , yet the club are floundering . Brentford led the way , yet we decided to go down a route of spending  millions on players that were already known not to be Prem level now or in the future . It is surreal to look at it and what the club were thinking . We have not replicated any model of success . It went random with Ashton , LJ and SL playing .  There is a reason why we are nowhere near the Prem despite soending millions . Yet few seem to want to accept this or more importantly actually devise any form of plan. Change Pearson , he is crap . Ok , but no one comes up with any realistic options , or recognise how far off our squad is , then add in a financial melt down . 
 

its a mess and needs clarity . Moaning is fine , but we need action . But not fantasy wishes . Real action .

I always read your posts with great interest. I’ve read most of the recent threads. We’ve discussed the lack of a decent recruitment set up etc re Ashton, how much does it cost to set up properly? How much would the club have to invest ? Why wouldn’t they invest in recruitment?

In bold, do you mean the club? I think they’re holding back, waiting for investment. Perhaps something’s in the pipeline and changes are happening?

[Mr Sno]

There are 2 ways of looking at it, from one perspective we have easily stayed up and therefore we have made progress compared to last season.

The other argument is that if it wasn't for the points deductions of reading and derby we would be in massive trouble, add in no real patterns of play or structure or identity, this shows little progress made.

Overall Pearson tenure has been a big disappointment, poor signings, little progress on the pitch and Pearson doing what he does best blaming everyone but himself.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Had a further think on scenarios and that one I outlined squad wise steers us clear of FFP and is sort of middling in the circs..

Here is a worse one tying in finances and squad:

Embargo type

Professional Standing

That means we would be permitted to sign players only if we had under 23 who had made 1 appearance at  a relevant level.

Covid continues to bite. Moore and Bakinson return and a combination of Covid and wages means we cannot offload Palmer or Wells. Plus a loan out does not create a space in the squad for signings. In such a hole could we afford to see Kalas and Massengo go out of the door too.

Under this scenario...

Players of Professional Standing

()=uncertainty of status

GK:

Bentley, O'Leary

RB:

Tanner, Vyner

CB:

(Kalas), Baker, Atkinson, Moore, (Cundy, Klose)

LB:

DaSilva, Pring

CM:

Bakinson, James, Massengo, Williams

Other midfielders:

Benarous, Palmer, Scott

Forwards:

Martin, Semenyo, Weimann, Wells

Others who count as Professional Standing:

Bell, Conway

We would have to offload 3 permanently in order to sign 1 and that's before finances come into it. I expect that there will be more who would count as Professional Standing too.

Once it reaches the 23, then one in one out kinda thing.

If for example Cundy and Klose left as end of contract we still couldn't sign anyone until one more left permanently and then as I say one in one out.

Reason I didn't mention King or O'Dowda is that I'd be highly surprised if either stay.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

In the event that it is the slightly more relaxed Established Player regulation and finances permitting then I estimate that we would be able to sign up to six more players, subject to EFL input, unsure if is conditional on negotiations for EFL Business Plan etc, seemed to go hand in hand with Birmingham. 4 players if we retained Cundy and Klose eg

Then 1 in 1 out again, probably subject to EFL wage limits etc.

It's slightly worse than I thought. In theory Edwards and Janneh could count towards the Established Player bit. Unsure about Morton.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

One final note. These things can be variable and subject to negotiations but I assume that any kind of new or extended contract would have to align with EFL agreed/imposed wage numbers either individually or collectively and with FFP compliance in mind.

Eg if we were permitted £10k per week per player for new signings and we wished to extend Kalas who was on say £20k per week now, we'd need to get him down to £10k per week or less to pass muster.

I guess that if we were permitted under the second type of embargo 6 new free signings at £10k per week that'd be an extra £3.12m in costs.

Put another way if an overspend is already forecast, every new pound of football expenditure adds to the overspend that needs to be filled.

FFP hole by one estimate might be £4-5m, therefore we would need to make good £7.12-8.12m.

Fresh revenue, cost savings and transfer profit are prime methods for this.

Points deduction wise that falls within the £6-8m and £8-10m bracket, which is 6 or 7 pts respectively.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous