Get the defence sorted and we’re contenders?

[JoeAman08]

6 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

We need to sort the defence yes, and that is probably the priority. However we musn't rest on our laurels regarding attack.

If you look at the last ten matches then you see the only games in which we've registered 10 or more shots are against Barnsley, Birmingham, Peterborough and Derby. Derby is the only game where we managed more than 15 shots, with more than 5 on target. Against better teams we are struggling to create a large number of chances, and rely on our good finishing to get our goals.

Similarly, I'd urge anyone expecting a second 20 goal season from Weimann to reconsider. He's more likely to regress to a performance in line with his career averages so far. Those figures suggest that 12-15 is a more likely goal total than 20. Still respectable, buy not the exceptional performance we've seen this year. Another 20 is possible, but it's not probable.

Add in the possibility of Semenyo leaving, and Martin not getting younger, and I think we need to keep trying to improve in attack as well as defence.

I was coming to say the same thing. Also think we could do with pressing from the front. I think we can get more from Semenyo in that regard. He can do it so maybe we do not ask him to as much. Seems much more involved closing down lately though. 
 

Also if we do want to go 433 then you have to consider the winger/wide forward positions. I think both Semenyo and Weimann can play across the front 3 in that. Martin not convinced would be a great fit in that long term. So either need to look at a more all around central striker or a couple of wide players. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, JoeAman08 said:

Also if we do want to go 433 then you have to consider the winger/wide forward positions. I think both Semenyo and Weimann can play across the front 3 in that. Martin not convinced would be a great fit in that long term. So either need to look at a more all around central striker or a couple of wide players. 

Scott as a freeish '1' in a 4-3-1-2, then out of possession him or Weimann pull wide right, Semenyo wide left might be one way to go, although Martin has done quite well this season so it's a dilemma.

[The Bard]

I look at the league in 3rds.

We're top of the bottom 3rd.  If we'd not had the habit of conceding very late we'd have been nicely mid table.

So if we can cut that out and maintain our level we should be good for some improvement.

However,  if we can further lay down our pattern of play and get our midfield and defence functioning better, we'll be more upwardly mobile. A season like QPR or Coventry may be?  Contending at least for some part of the season.

[And Its Smith]

15 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Scott as a freeish '1' in a 4-3-1-2, then out of possession him or Weimann pull wide right, Semenyo wide left might be one way to go, although Martin has done quite well this season so it's a dilemma.

If I was Scott I would be looking for assurances as to my starting position next season. Can’t be played at RWB any more 

[M.D]

I went to watch Brighton V Southampton yesterday.

Now don't get me wrong because Im only talking about a player in the game and he's a premiership player so way out of of range of course.

But I took time to watch Oriol Romeu, a player I've never really rated myself, too slow in my thoughts.

Brighton's 3 midfield took control of the first half against Southampton's 2, second half the lad was everywhere, he broke up play, tackled and dragged Southampton into the match that they then had the better of the second half because of his work.

A championship standard version of him is exactly what we need, Marvin Elliott type, hard to find I know but an underrated player like that can turn a game and would change this team for the better..

[GrahamC]

32 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

If I was Scott I would be looking for assurances as to my starting position next season. Can’t be played at RWB any more 

If I was only 18 & yet I had been the 4th most selected player in the squad I’d be absolutely delighted that the bloke in charge had so much faith in me.

I fully expect us to sign an alternative RB this summer but Scott also knows what the response would be from Pearson if he ever started asking him for assurances on where he gets picked.

[TonyTonyTony]

4 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

If I was only 18 & yet I had been the 4th most selected player in the squad I’d be absolutely delighted that the bloke in charge had so much faith in me.

I fully expect us to sign an alternative RB this summer but Scott also knows what the response would be from Pearson if he ever started asking him for assurances on where he gets picked.

Can you imagine any 18 yr old asking Pearson for "assurances"? Even i'd shit myself and im 47 !

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, JoeAman08 said:

Also if we do want to go 433 then you have to consider the winger/wide forward positions. I think both Semenyo and Weimann can play across the front 3 in that. Martin not convinced would be a great fit in that long term. So either need to look at a more all around central striker or a couple of wide players. 

Seems to be from last week’s interview he sees the front three as as a 2+1 (behind) rather than 3 strung across the line….which although being a bit “football manager” is my preference.

I can see the 43 bit of the 433 being one athletic DM and two CMs which you can mix and match.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, The Bard said:

I look at the league in 3rds.

We're top of the bottom 3rd.  If we'd not had the habit of conceding very late we'd have been nicely mid table.

So if we can cut that out and maintain our level we should be good for some improvement.

However,  if we can further lay down our pattern of play and get our midfield and defence functioning better, we'll be more upwardly mobile. A season like QPR or Coventry may be?  Contending at least for some part of the season.

Me too, and not just League positions, but the haves and have-nots financially too.

[Mr Popodopolous]

21 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Seems to be from last week’s interview he sees the front three as as a 2+1 (behind) rather than 3 strung across the line….which although being a bit “football manager” is my preference.

I can see the 43 bit of the 433 being one athletic DM and two CMs which you can mix and match.

           Scott

Weimann Semenyo

Although currently maybe Weimann behind Martin and Semenyo...Scott further back in the 3 alongside James and Williams?

[cityloyal473]

16 hours ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

At the time of posting this I think we’ve given away 25 points from winning positions (trusting Sky punditry). 
We will always let SOME leads slip or there would be no score draws, but 25 points is a lot. With those points we’d be 3rd on 77 (ok as I said we would have dropped SOME of them anyway) 
Looking at the league table, we have been scoring quite well - 57 goals - more than Sheffield U (56) - and only QPR have scored more (58) outside the top 5. 
So, on goals scored we are 7th in the league. The reason we are where we are is our defence. 
we’ve been better of late - and if we get it sorted for next season there’s no reason why we can’t be up there around the top 6. 

I’d say sorting the midfield is a higher priority and would ultimately help the defence anyway. 

[Davefevs]

Not to read tonnes into but this is the goals for and against table for each player whilst they are on the pitch.

Sorted on goal difference per 90 mins.

(I excluded Duncan Idehen)

 

[And Its Smith]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

If I was only 18 & yet I had been the 4th most selected player in the squad I’d be absolutely delighted that the bloke in charge had so much faith in me.

I fully expect us to sign an alternative RB this summer but Scott also knows what the response would be from Pearson if he ever started asking him for assurances on where he gets picked.

If I was Scott I’d be delighted with how this season has gone but also mindful of interest. If Pearson couldn’t assure me I wouldn’t be playing in a defensive role then I’d look to move 

[Numero Uno]

7 hours ago, Tafkarmlf said:

Oddly, i don't think it's the defence itself that's the issue per se. I've had this conversation elsewhere, but it's midfield and lack of constant possession that's the problem meaning we get under seige, alot of the time. 

Considering that the defenders themselves do pretty well. Kalas had been playing with an injury for a long time and, since then, Bents in goal and some woeful finishing has kept scores down in the main. 

Organisation wasnt ever the issue, barring maybe corners. 

You can only have so much pressure before conceding no matter how much the defence is good or not. 

Massengo Scott and a 'screener' work well but we rarely see it at the moment. 

Agreed. If you want to protect a 1-0 lead with 10 minutes to go it is far easier to do if you have players that can pass the ball around and keep hold of it. It allows you to manage the game. Even knocking the ball around throughout the game means the opposition will tire a bit and don’t have the energy to lay siege to your goal at the end of the game. We don’t have the personnel in the middle of the park and up front to do that yet and the problem that compounds it is that defensively we aren’t good enough to soak up pressure in the latter stages of games either.

[Rich]

Not sure if this has been mentioned as I haven't read through the thread. The OP believes that if we can sort the defence out we should challenge at the other end of the table next season. OK, I agree but, who's to say that our strikers and goals for will stay the same, get better or, more likely diminish a little. Weimann has had his best season in relation to goals scored, can he keep that up for another season, would it be expected, personally I doubt it. Martin has had a decent season, with a one in four return and been steady holding the line. Will he be able to do the same another year on, again, I doubt it. Semenyo is hopefully the one out of the three regular starters that we all hope gets better and will make up any dropping off from the others.

For me, we need another more mobile, bigger, faster version of Martin, if we have ambitions of challenging at the other end of the table. Basically, a swap for Wells, if we can offload him.

[TheReds]

4 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

Defence has improved but over the last 10 games we have still conceded the fifth most in the league

I think it’s too simplistic to say if we sort the defence then we will be challenging.  If we sort the defence then it may well mean having more men behind the ball and thus less potency on the break

With our previous good away form, it was said that all we needed to do was improve our home form. We did but our away form was then awful.  

5th most?

Over the last 10 games we have conceded 14.

Brum 19, Reading 18, QPR 17, Barnsley 16, Coventry 15, Posh15, Swansea 15 and Derby have conceded the same as us.

Over last 8 games we have conceded 10, which would have 10 teams to have conceded more than us and 4 with the same number.

*According to soccerstats website

[ExiledAjax]

3 hours ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

... but we made it to the playoff final once with a GD of 0 under GJ!

Sure, there are outliers - Huddersfield finished 5th with -2 GD in 2016/17, going on to win the play-offs by beating a Reading team who themselves had finished on +4 and somehow managed 3rd place.* True outliers.

But it's unusual. Of all the teams to finish in the top 6 since 2014/15, only 4 have a goal difference of less than +10. So of 42 teams (48 if you include the 6 this season, where it's unlikely any will finish with less than +10), only 4 managed it. There's a very strong correlation, much stronger than looking at goals scored or conceded in isolation.

*Reading's record that season is mad. Scored 68, conceded a shocking (for a play-off team) 64, and yet won 26 matches!

Edited April 25, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[london_Cider_red]

The way it looks at the moment we might have no choice but to at least shuffle the defence. Cundy and Klose out of contract and as far as I’ve heard no talks taking place or planned? Baker as much as I enjoy his performances when he plays we just can’t rely on him playing more than half a season, I doubt Pearson would be looking at him as a reliable part of his plans. Moore and Vyner look to be on their way out by any means necessary. This leaves us with Kalas (I personally doubt anyone will pay a fee we’d accept as well as the wages Kalas is getting so I assume he’s here next season), Idehen and Atkinson as far as I’m aware? As back ups we have possibly Towler but he will need to show vast improvement from his last run out and Pring out of position (if he hasn't fallen out of favour with Pearson that is) and maybe Baker. If we’re sticking with our normal set up I’d say that would leave us looking for at least 1 starting CB with Atkinson and Idehen alternating to get some more experience In them at this level the best option. If this is the case and depending on what we can afforded and who we can persuade I’d be looking for another Baker type personally I think we generally lack a bit of grit/ aggression at times and maybe putting this in the mix on a persistent basis would help with our seeming late stage nerves? There’s lots of assumptions here but I hope the logic behind them makes sense, if any of this is wrong feel free to correct me! 

Edited April 25, 2022 by london_Cider_red

[Nogbad the Bad]

13 minutes ago, Rich said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned as I haven't read through the thread. The OP believes that if we can sort the defence out we should challenge at the other end of the table next season. OK, I agree but, who's to say that our strikers and goals for will stay the same, get better or, more likely diminish a little. Weimann has had his best season in relation to goals scored, can he keep that up for another season, would it be expected, personally I doubt it. Martin has had a decent season, with a one in four return and been steady holding the line. Will he be able to do the same another year on, again, I doubt it. Semenyo is hopefully the one out of the three regular starters that we all hope gets better and will make up any dropping off from the others.

For me, we need another more mobile, bigger, faster version of Martin, if we have ambitions of challenging at the other end of the table. Basically, a swap for Wells, if we can offload him.

If Andi stays fit and we keep on creating chances for him then why not?

If, like me, you think we'll almost certainly be a better team next season, he may well even have a significantly increased number of opportunities.

He's scored twice as many league goals this season as he ever has before.

He probably didn't believe himself capable of scoring 20 at Championship level, and now he knows he is his self belief in front of goal will be sky high.

Agree about a getting in a quicker, younger version of Martin, but I'd still expect CM to start the majority of games and he won't let us down.

If he has a full season I can see Semenyo doubling this season's total next year, at least, 15+ for Antoine.

 

 

[Davefevs]

58 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

He has also said he is happy with options up front ( and the potential coming through ) but maybe they will look for an alternative for Martin as he gets flogged .

If we can move Wells on, that would help create the squad space. For me, I don’t want another Martin-type per se, I want one who be more like Semenyo, power and pace.  For me, when Semenyo isn’t playing or not having an impact, I think we suffer.  Getting Semenyo mk2 is not easy with our financial constraints.

I’ve been watching a bit of Daniel Udoh at Shrewsbury.  He’s 25 and coming off his best season ever (Maybe Alby has gotten hold of him?).  I don’t think many fans would be overly excited by this, but we are fishing in smaller ponds as it currently stands (unless we get a percentage sell-on or we sell a “star”).  He’s quick, physical, can play off either foot, and likes to drift off of a central striker favouring the inside left, reminds a bit of Yakou Meite (Reading).  Maybe we can do a deal with Uncle Cotts and Janneh!!!

Be an interesting summer for sure , but at least we now have a framework , a desired direction , though it may yet take another summer before we completely reshape the squad .

yes, starting to get a feel for the summer plan.

So many questions over the high earners , the ability to move them on that does not damage us or hopefully enhances overall our finances , the youngsters getting bids , maybe a sell on clause bonus . But for sure , there will be changes to improve us defensively . 

36 minutes ago, TheReds said:

5th most?

Over the last 10 games we have conceded 14.

Brum 19, Reading 18, QPR 17, Barnsley 16, Coventry 15, Posh15, Swansea 15 and Derby have conceded the same as us.

Over last 8 games we have conceded 10, which would have 10 teams to have conceded more than us and 4 with the same number.

*According to soccerstats website

In our last 8 games we’ve started:

Cundy / Klose / Atkinson

      James / xxxxxxx

[BS4 on Tour...]

14 hours ago, AshtonGreat said:

Seven goals is massively overperforming?

Where did you get seven goals from? Surely you must know Martin scored more than that?!

[spudski]

6 hours ago, Nogbad the Bad said:

If Andi stays fit and we keep on creating chances for him then why not?

If, like me, you think we'll almost certainly be a better team next season, he may well even have a significantly increased number of opportunities.

He's scored twice as many league goals this season as he ever has before.

He probably didn't believe himself capable of scoring 20 at Championship level, and now he knows he is his self belief in front of goal will be sky high.

Agree about a getting in a quicker, younger version of Martin, but I'd still expect CM to start the majority of games and he won't let us down.

If he has a full season I can see Semenyo doubling this season's total next year, at least, 15+ for Antoine.

 

 

Andi has had a fantastic season.

His energy and willingness to keep going 100% is admirable.

Imo... he's still got a lot of years in him...a 'naturally' fit and athletic person before training. Genetics maybe.

What's very noticeable this season is his composure. He's obviously worked on it. Just goes to show that you can keep training regardless of age.

His control and composure has improved considerably. 

He's become more clinical and precise.

I hate it when I read people making out he's always been this way...it's not true...otherwise he'd be Prem and playing for Austria regularly.

He's improved massively this season...before he was a lot less controlled and composed. He snatched and rushed everything...with a ball off his knee or wherever...and at a pace.

If he keeps on an upward curve, played in the right position, off the right people, he could be a massive assett next season.

 

[Mr Chappers]

I think ‘contenders’ is a bit of a stretch. I’ll be happy if we are still in the Championship and in a better financial position at the end of next season.

[pillred]

13 minutes ago, spudski said:

Andi has had a fantastic season.

His energy and willingness to keep going 100% is admirable.

Imo... he's still got a lot of years in him...a 'naturally' fit and athletic person before training. Genetics maybe.

What's very noticeable this season is his composure. He's obviously worked on it. Just goes to show that you can keep training regardless of age.

His control and composure has improved considerably. 

He's become more clinical and precise.

I hate it when I read people making out he's always been this way...it's not true...otherwise he'd be Prem and playing for Austria regularly.

He's improved massively this season...before he was a lot less controlled and composed. He snatched and rushed everything...with a ball off his knee or wherever...and at a pace.

If he keeps on an upward curve, played in the right position, off the right people, he could be a massive assett next season.

 

I'm not directly comparing them but Ronaldo and Jamie Vardy are at least 5 years older than Andi so yes why shouldn't he carry on successfully for a fair few more years yet, 30 years old is nothing I always think players retire far too early in a lot of cases. 

[Rocking Red Cyril]

16 hours ago, Tafkarmlf said:

Oddly, i don't think it's the defence itself that's the issue per se. I've had this conversation elsewhere, but it's midfield and lack of constant possession that's the problem meaning we get under seige, alot of the time. 

Considering that the defenders themselves do pretty well. Kalas had been playing with an injury for a long time and, since then, Bents in goal and some woeful finishing has kept scores down in the main. 

Organisation wasnt ever the issue, barring maybe corners. 

You can only have so much pressure before conceding no matter how much the defence is good or not. 

Massengo Scott and a 'screener' work well but we rarely see it at the moment. 

Spot on 

The problem is midfield. We need a protective defensive midfield role and player to do this. Still think as previously stated signing back Pack could do this role. We must be able to hold the ball in midfield better as well . To much ball in our half for opposing teams. Yes the defence needs tightening and would love to see a real zippy winger signed .  But feel the biggest problem is midfield is main issue. Would love to see a fully fit Williams mind

Sits with tin hat on. 

COYR

 

 

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Still wonder if a fully fit trio of James-Williams-Massengo couldn't provide a set of solutions- a bit of bite, technical ability and tenacity/energy, plus the experience of James- not so much about a stand out individual but a collective who would nonetheless help to protect the defence in a range of ways.

[Davefevs]

@spudskithought you might like this.

I agree that he has improved his finishing, but wonder whether some of it is shot selection too?  Those half a dozen shots from the right hand corner of the penalty are low percentage chances, a few more taken from outside the box in 19/20 (20/21 injury hit) versus this season (21 v11) make a big difference too.

Think it might’ve been after the Swansea game when he scored his 1v1, I looked at all of his chances, and he scored every 1v1.  That’s pretty epic.  Did you hear his BBCRB interview on Saturday evening.  Usual stuff from Hadwin about “did you have too much time”.  The reply was (paraphrased) “I had it under control, waiting to see whether the keeper was gonna come out and I might be able to go around him. But he stayed back so I planned to hit it past him with a bit of height”.  Shows a man confident and in control.

If Antoine could improve his shot selection further (I think he has a bit already), then he could be lethal.  His finish on Saturday was him not trying to hit it as hard as he could!!!

[AshtonGreat]

9 hours ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Where did you get seven goals from? Surely you must know Martin scored more than that?!

I looked on Wikipedia. Obviously it's a bit outdated. Even so, ten isn't great for a striker

[HiddenGem7]

17 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

If I was Scott I’d be delighted with how this season has gone but also mindful of interest. If Pearson couldn’t assure me I wouldn’t be playing in a defensive role then I’d look to move 

You can't have listened to Pearson's interviews very much if you think he would ever give that sort of assurance.  He has said multiple times that he doesn't care about players being upset about not being selected or what position that they would "prefer" to play.  

[bcfcredandwhite]

17 hours ago, Rich said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned as I haven't read through the thread. The OP believes that if we can sort the defence out we should challenge at the other end of the table next season. OK, I agree but, who's to say that our strikers and goals for will stay the same, get better or, more likely diminish a little. Weimann has had his best season in relation to goals scored, can he keep that up for another season, would it be expected, personally I doubt it. Martin has had a decent season, with a one in four return and been steady holding the line. Will he be able to do the same another year on, again, I doubt it. Semenyo is hopefully the one out of the three regular starters that we all hope gets better and will make up any dropping off from the others.

For me, we need another more mobile, bigger, faster version of Martin, if we have ambitions of challenging at the other end of the table. Basically, a swap for Wells, if we can offload him.

This is an excellent point  - Wells too was scoring for fun at QPR before he came to us and his goals dried up - but analysing the current season is what I was going by, when posting. 
THIS SEASON we are 8th top scorers in the league (in my OP I said 7th but I hadn't spotted that Coventry had also scored 58 - apologies) and we are 3rd in the table for goals conceded. That would suggest that conceding goals was a bigger problem for us than scoring. 
With regards to the goals from Weimann and Martin drying up, we could also argue that the younger players like Semenyo (as you suggested), Scott and Massengo haven't reached their potential yet, so as older players like Weimann and Martin start to fade, those younger players will start to shine - I agree Weimann may never again repeat this seasons heroics. We just don't know.