ExiledAjax

Naismith is gonna have a hell of a job covering for bothe Kalas and Williams when he comes back.

@IAmNick apparently FotMob uses xG data taken live from Opta. Opta's xG model does account for defenders and "defensive pressure". So it may be the better one to use.

Been like that for about 4 seasons.

Yeh most models give a penalty around about 0.72. I'm not sure if Infogol do a full human review, but they definitely adjust the numbers after a game. A few times I've looked at FT figures, then gone back a couple of days later and it's changed. They have a detailed methodology here https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/education/expected-goals-shot-maps-explained-8102019 Their in-play model does not consider defensive players. It's mainly based on "the x, y location on the field where an attempt originates, whether the attempt is made with the foot, the head or another body part and a descriptive assessment of which type of phase of play preceded the attempt." So a shot like Mehmeti's, without the defenders, is basically a penalty.

Numbers from infogol. It's the best of the free xG number crunchers, but a more sophisticated paid for provider may well give a different figure. The also may adjust it on review. 0.65 is the instant inplay figure. You're correct it's not an exact science. Checked and FotMob are giving it just 0.25. They give Scott's 0.18. so infogol may well have gone a little mad there. 0.25 is still a very good chance from open play.

That Scott/Mehmeti double chance really was huge. xG of 0.23 for Scott's header and a massive 0.65 for Mehmeti's follow up. Huge chances.

Couple of good chances on the counter. Scott header well blocked. Mehmeti follow up well saved.

Fair answer. And I made the question succinct as well. To this I'd say it's not a question of a simple, raw time frame of X months or Y games. My posts in November/December were around the fact that we shouldn't sack him because it was only results that were poor. Underlying numbers were ok, and were not indicative of a relegation candidate. So my answer to "how long do we give managers?" is "Until it becomes clear, through analysis of all metrics, that the squad's performances are either no longer improving or are regressing. In particular we should sack them if we are posting numbers that indicate that we are a relegation candidate." Note that this deliberately does not refer to results, but to underlying performance figures. This time frame will be different for each manager. Under Pearson's first year and a half we were generally continually trending upwards in most metrics. I was therefore happy to expect that "results would come", and so give him time. As I've said though, it's no indicator of continued success, and under a less restricted budget we might actually find he's not the best fit for us. We might plateau - in fact we kind of already are - and so it might be best to find someone new.

I have a question. With the benefit of the current hindsight we enjoy with Pearson will you give managers in the future more time or more leniency, perhaps even when you feel as though you are "done" with them?

Oh so that's why the Welsh hate our loos so much. They're just not up to standard.

Stick that on my gravestone would you?

As my ears are burning I'd simply like to clarify that I did not predict a 12 match unbeaten run. I merely pointed out that 17th was about par for the course at the time, and that therefore we shouldn't worry about slipping lower than that. It was more likely than not that we'd improve, but I did not expect to be hitting 1.88 points per game in 2023. This run is the fruition of two years of tough decisions...but that doesn't mean it was inevitable. Ps. The same numbers that allayed my fears in December currently suggest that we're gaining rather more points than is reasonable. Hence my opinion that were not as good as people think we are. Hence my feeling that playoffs are a pipe dream as likely as relegation.

I think that whether or not to offer Pearson a new contract is a really tough decision. In the autumn we weren't as bad as some said we were, and right now we're not as good as some think we are. Pearson's done a great job behind the scenes but the next 3 years are going to be under different financial conditions. He may well have been perfect for the rebuild and reset, but someone else may be best for the push for the top 6. I'd not blame anyone who thought it best to let Pearson see out his contract and then hand over a well run, well set club with a solid squad of players. Hand that to the right manager and we could fly. One things for sure - match results should be the final metric that we consider.

Last season it was announced at the end of March and renewals started on Monday 4th April.

That's interim results predicted to be on 28 Feb isn't it? Tbh Pop I don't know the NYSE listing rules at all. Given Man Utd's resources and advisers I'd be amazed if they've missed a formal deadline of any sort. I personally know some of their Cayman lawyers and they won't miss things like that.

Ok.

I'm not pretending to know him or his motivations or desires at the time. However, right now the move does seem to have been good for all parties.

Exactly. The lad's played 93% of the maximum potential minutes he could have played since joining Pompey. 9 full 90 minute games in a solid League 1 side. What would he have played in that same time here? Maybe, maybe, a couple of cameo 10 minutes here and there. Correct decision from all parties to let him go.

Thanks for sharing, and well done for respecting his privacy in the past. Obviously I hope his operation and rehab go well and that he's back on the pitch as soon as possible.

Suspect it's a case of Reading say they've complied with the BP, EFL reckon there's a chance they have not. So there's a review.

Absolutely possible. I do suspect tha ultimately Benarous would declare for Algeria. I don't think he's going to be in for the England team so think he'll take the Semenyo route of declaring for his second option.

"Hahahahahahaha!!! You mean you adhere to FFP!?"

Not much chat about the lad recently...but is he basically declaring for Algeria here? I've not checked if he's already fixed his national team btw so apologies to the Benarous mega-fans who already know. Also obviously I have to caveat that the title of this thread is a Google translate job so apologies to the French/Algerian speakers on here. Je suis desole.

Thanks, and you even ignored the typo.