ExiledAjax

Yeh. This is our first big test imo. First game against a team that's likely to finish higher than us. Keeping Brereton-Diaz is as big for them as keeping Semenyo is for us. I reckon well be largely unchanged. Maybe James rotated with Williams and a slim chance of Semenyo starting in place of Conway. Other than that I'd expect the same 11.

1) is he a striker? I refer you to the opening post of this thread ? 2) personal opinion. He's not Watkins level. Nearer Eze. Still top drawer, but not the top of the top drawer. Lower-middle of the top drawer. Kinda where you keep your third nicest pair of pants.

You've got Eze as well from a couple of seasons ago. Probably the closest to Semenyo in terms of the type of player. That was a £20m fee. As @Mr Popodopolous says I think £20m is the upper limit, even if he bangs in 10 before Christmas and gets goals at the world cup. There's just not any evidence that any Prem club is looking to spend £30m on a Championship player this season. If he must be sold then of course I hope we're all wrong and that we are living in @Monkeh's world and not mine. But I doubt that.

If he has a storming autumn and World Cup (assuming he goes) then yeh I can see that being more realistic. Maybe with an extra £1m or £2m in add-ons. I just think anyone talking about fees of nearly double that is getting a little overexcited.

The Champ spent £86 million partly because the Premier League clubs didn't spend much of that £1.8 billion in the Championship. Only approximately £140m flowed from the PL down into the coffers of Championship clubs. About half of that went to Burnley for just 4 players (Collins, McNiel, Cornet and Pope). If you exclude Burnley's sales as that's really a Premier League club selling Premier League players then you're left with roughly £75 million being spent by the Premier League in the Championship. Of that £75 million, about a third was spent by Forest. The rest went on four players: Lewis-Potter £17m Hull > Brentford Spence £13m Boro > Spurs Tavernier £11m Boro > Bournemouth Downes £10m Swansea > West Ham. Looking at that does Semenyo £28m Bristol City > ? really look likely? One player potentially accounting for nearly a quarter of the money spent by the Premier League on non-relegated Premier League talent. A fee nearly 50% more than the next highest fee? Personally I think you are overestimating the market and overestimating Semenyo's value. All figures based on this transfermarkt list https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2022&s_w=s&leihe=0&intern=0&intern=1

It's a speculative opinion that could well be true, but for me I just do not see a market for £28m. That seems way above what PL clubs have generally paid for Champ talent. It would make him the 4th most expensive transfer out of the Champ in history, and the most expensive since Ake and Watkins in the 20/21 season. £20m I can just about see possible. 40% on top of that feels like serious wishful thinking imo.

I think this is about what the club think as well. £20m would make it very, very hard for us to say no.

Yep Sykes is a good shout. I guess technically Naismith or Vyner could do a shift at CM. But seeing as they're fully occupied at CB that seems unlikely for the moment. Williams absolutely, this management of him will be intended to be short term. He'll be on a plan to be phased in to playing 2 games a week.

Yeh, the overall improvement is naturally going to be a result of improvements in many areas of the pitch. That's what I was trying to set out, within the defence only, when I say that I don't think it can all be attributed to Naismith. Pressing is interesting. I don't have the data breakdown for blocks of games, but just looking at our passes per defensive action (PPDA) we see that last season, as a whole over the entire season, it was 13.3, and so far this season it is 12.5, So we are allowing our opponents one pass less before we win possession back. Suggests a slightly more intense, or perhaps better enacted, press. The other interesting one, and perhaps this is more relevant if we are trying to figure out if our strikers have improved their press, is high turnovers. Last season we had 293 across 46 games - 6.4 per game. In these first seven games alone we've racked up 55 - 7.9 per game. So an improvement there. Tricky with the pressing stuff as you're comparing 46 games to 7, but the indication is that yes there's been an improvement in the pressing. I agree, that should help alleviate pressure on the defence. High turnovers should result in us attacking them rather than the other way round (saw a fair bit of that last night didn't we).

Just going on rumour and conjecture to be honest mate. ? One thing I saw on the BBC just now is this: Still plenty of time though. The deadline for English Premier League and Football League teams to do their business is 23:00 BST, with Scotland's deadline an hour later. In Spain it is 23:00, in France it is 22:00, Italy's window shuts at 19:00 and Germany's deadline is 17:00 - all times BST. Makes complete sense to have 5 different deadlines across the major leagues. Absolute no danger of any confusion there at all.

In our current state and set up I think we have to think of Weimann as a midfielder, or at least as a player being used as a midfielder. That only strengthens the options that you set out. I think it's a positive. He'll score fewer goals, but he's still incredibly influential and is a great link between the more traditional two CMs and the two strikers. This is all facilitated by Wells, Conway and Semenyo having strong starts to the season. It allows us to use one of our best players more flexibly. This can't be said enough. The combination of a good medical team, and a manager that trusts them and has the discipline to listen to them, is paying dividends.

I think he's well worth the price of the odd individual error. I've just run some rough numbers comparing the general state of our defence this season to the state it was in over the closing 10 games of last season. I'd normally say that it's a little early to do this but the discussions on this thread got me wondering. Signs are good. Beneath the headline figure of 3 clean sheets and a GD of +4 we see that shots on target against per game are down from an average of 4.5 over those final 10 games, to 3.3 this season, that's a 27% reduction in the number of times that Bentley is being forced into making a save. That is huge. That is reflected in the xG against. There we see a decline of 25%, from an average of 1.6 per game to 1.2 per game so far this season. A significant reduction in the overall likelihood of conceding. I'm not saying Naismith is the sole reason for this improvement, we've gone from a back 3 of Klose/Atkinson/Cundy in the closing stages of last season to one of Atkinson/Naismith/Vyner at the start of this one, but he's really the only truly new recruit in defence (yes Sykes plays a role but the RWB position as we play it is that of a part-time defender). If he's not the sole reason then it's a fair supposition that he's influential on these improvements. Combine this with the continuity of good form in attack, and you cans ee that the numbers support our good form so far this season. We aren't fluking games, we aren't relying on fortunate or better-than-expected performances. We're getting what we deserve.

Personally I think Bentley would be the hardest to replace. He's not perfect but I think he's about as good a keeper as we can hope to get (bar a loan from the Prem which seems unlikely under Gould and Pearson).

Our motivation to sell is balancing FFP in the coming seasons. This bears very little relevance to our form or position in the table (unless we are in a runaway 1st or 2nd and so guaranteed promotion).

A question I have is what is the situation in the rest of our division, or football as a whole? Are other clubs looking at similar contracts that were 3 or 4 years signed pre-covid and are about to run out with no prospect of renewal on those terms? If so then our players will simply go into the biggest pool of free agent/freelance footballers we've ever seen. We and other clubs may then see a very different kind of window next summer. One of wages and signing bonuses rather than transfer fees. It could be interesting, and in a situation where there's perhaps 200 free experienced championship players, would we be that worried about not replacing these guys?

Antony's price is equal to the net spend of la Liga. Forest's spending is more than that spent by the whole of the Eridivise.* These and more fun facts and discussion are on today's European football ramble https://pca.st/episode/0de4b906-b902-4bc9-954d-446009974b84 *Subject to Ajax spending the Antony fee.

Took us 21 games to get 3 clean sheets last season.

7 (seven) shots on target.

Ok. "Goalie".

Oh it's up there with the two v Fulham. But I think the breakaway one in that game is his best.

Semenyo emasculated a defender and goalkeeper and it wasn't even his best ever goal.

...

It's all just so much more fun than the last two years.

Weimann. **** it do a double sub of Weimann for Semenyo and Naismith for Massengo. Flat 433 and let's just run straight at them.

Has Nicholls greased his gloves?