ExiledAjax

If you look at a rolling ten game period of form then we've been in definite relegation form (ie tracking at below 1.0ppg across 10 games) after three matches this season. Those were the three consecutive losses between 24 Feb and 5 March being: Sheff Wed (0.9), Cardiff, (0.8), and Ipswich (0.8). All other complete ten game blocks across the season have us at 1ppg or above.

1. Dickie 2. James 3. Vyner 4. Tanner 5. Knight Basically the defensive unit plus the screen in front of it. O'Leary will be my notable exception for many. In my opinion he's done his job, which has been made easier by the unit in front of him. Those outfield players therefore get the credit. I'd have him 6th or 7th probably.

And this has proved true. We've gone at 2.16 ppg (aka promotion or even title-winning form*) for the past 6 games...and have climbed two places in the table. Be angry at the maths of the league table rather than saying we should/could have won games that we didn't. *In a normal season.

And over those 6 games we've climbed from 14th to 12th. The maths of football is rough.

At FT as well. Almost out of the play offs but not quite. The maximum we can now get is 69 (nice), and Norwich in 6th have 68.

Probably Swansea (47 points) but maybe Leicester (50).

Oh gosh

Oh god was it even that. The permanent signing summer was it. FFS.

Powderpuff defending.

I would. He looked class in Tampa in preseason but the club went and signed bloody Kasey Palmer on loan.

Don't believe so. Although we kind of came close in 2015/16 when Tammy came second in the goals chart and we finished 3 points clear of relegation.

They've been poor at the back all season. They started as a glass cannon and that cannon shattered back in the autumn. I'm not actually able to watch so are we actually playing well, and with a plan, or is it that Blackburn are just that poor?

No, that's opinion. And worse, it's opinion based on a surface level understanding of the facts. But Winter is easily one of the best "headline" sports journalists, even if he doesn't do the big deep dive cases that Conn, Ziegler, and some of the other guys do. I'd also defend a misunderstanding of P&S. Reading the Forest and Everton commission awards shows you that even at that level there's some wriggle room and nuance in the interpretation of those rules.

I think he's gonna make it

And drinks cider from a lemon.

Played 11 minutes last week in the derby della capitale. He's back.

In simple terms, because it's complicated, is in dispute, and they didn't want to wait for expert determination on the matter. In detailed terms - as follows. The commission does recognise that this is not exactly desirable and is "acutely aware" that people want this sorted quickly.

They could yet receive more punishment as there's an outstanding dispute around the capitalisation of some of the loan they took out for their new stadium (plus interest). Looking at the sums involved that might amount to a further 1 point deduction. Para 20 of the award basically says that the Commission will determine the outcome of that "at a later time".

Szmodics. Currently at the peak of his game, fills a gap in the squad, and is the one that got away.

To be fair, that's one more than he ever scored for us.* *Not his fault at all, but it's true.

So presumably - seeing as we've probably only once been in danger of relegation in that time - we've won quite a few, and haven't drawn very many? Theoretically a team could win 16, lose 30, and they'd likely still stay up on 48 points. As I said on another thread - wins are far more important than losses.

Isn't it the case that they're not appealing the guilt, they're appealing the penalty imposed. They're saying "you've punished us too much". Honestly in this second case I'm surprised that the PL aren't appealing. Appealing is a risk btw. There's nothing to stop a commission from increasing the punishment. Personally I wonder if the other clubs could all decide to cheat in order to let Luton, Brentford, and Burnley win all their remaining games and get Everton and Forest relegated.

The average required over the past decade or so is closer to 45. But that's an average so probably only keeps you up 50% of the time. These are the last fifteen totals for the team finishing 22nd. To stay up, you'd have needed one more point (or the same but better GD). In only three of these fifteen would you have required 48 - 50 points to stay up (five if you add back points deductions - see asterisks below), plus the absolute freak of a season in 2012/13. 22/23: Reading 44* 21/22: Peterborough 37 20/21: Wycombe 43** 19/20: Charlton 48*** 18/19: Rotherham 40 17/18: Barnsley 41 16/17: Blackburn 51 15/16: Charlton 40 14/15: Millwall 41 13/14: Doncaster 44 12/13: Peterbrough 54 11/12: Portsmouth 40 10/11: Preston 42 09/10: Sheff Wed 47 08/09: Norwich 46 A general rule though is that 1 point per game (46 in the Championship) keeps you safe in about 75% of seasons. That rule holds across most divisions both in this country and abroad. It holds over the past decade or so Championship results as well, even with deductions added back on. *Reading deducted 6 points. Had they not been then Cardiff would have gone down with 49. **Sheff Wed deducted 6. Had they not it would have been Derby with 44. ***Wigan deducted 12. Had they not it would have been Barnsley in 22nd with 49.

As I said, he should look to achieve a record of W17 D12 L17 F50 A50 for a GD of 0. Getting such a satisfyingly round and even final season record will give everyone in the squad and at the HPC the warm glow of contentedness necessary to depart for their holidays in a state of zen. They will be able to rest up and recharge and go into pre-season fully prepared for an assault on 7th place in 2024/25. Prospective new signings will also be impressed with this record, and will see that we are a club with very precise ambitions, and we're capable of delivering them.

I'm not being wise after the event. If you're bothered or bored you can check my posts.