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Hxj

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Posts posted by Hxj

  1. 15 minutes ago, firstdivision said:

    They tried to sign a midfield player? Do you know that for a fact?

    Depends what you mean by tried, and I never said they did.  I know for a 'fact' that the club is always in the market for what the club considers to be a player with potential at the right price.  I also know for a 'fact' that several midfielders were considered or suggested by agents etc.  It is also clear that the FFP position has been well and truly sorted (even without Semenyo's sale).  Therefore the purchases of Cornick and Mehmeti didn't stop other targets being signed, if they were available at the right price.

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  2. 38 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

    For me it’s why it should be a manager referral system, like cricket.

    Nothing I enjoy more when sat in the Radcliffe Road stand at Trent Bridge is a good old 'Referral', we all get to follow every microsecond of the ball's travel, and jeer and cheer at the same time, and then it's "Umpire's choice" and we all go to the bar and get another pint.

    Cricket has it so right.

    • Like 7
  3. Technically someone gave Sheffield United £27.6 million for some almost worthless pieces of paper.  Probably to clear FFP funding to access the £13 million loss limit plus other cash losses.

    A quick guess would be that it was Blades Leisure Limited the current owner.

    So entirely routine for a Championship football club.

  4. 29 minutes ago, downendcity said:

    As regards the trail of emails, does anyone expect there to be any trace of them on Man City's computers, which I wouldn't be surprised have all been replaced and upgraded over the last few years!

    I do - webmail/server backups/'insurance emails' etc etc - currently discussing cleansing stuff going back 20 years for my employers and everyone in the organisation wants to keep everything!

  5. 45 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

    Yes agreed but graphs tend to balance out over time for this.

    Says who?  Not being deliberately awkward, but could someone point me to an actual study that proves this?

    My disdain for xG and similar stats are probably well known on here.  There are too many issues from my perspective for it to be a useful predictor.  In my view the simple truth is that some teams have better players who score more goals and better players at stopping their opponents from scoring.  xG takes no notice of who scored or how a shot was stopped.

    There are plenty of possibilities for bias, conscious or unconscious.  "Oh Haaland missed that, it must have been a harder chance than it looks."

    Take O'Leary for example.  If he consistently performs over and above the average keeper then City's xGA will be higher than the actual goals conceded, he saves more shots.  That isn't something which you would expect to tend to an average, it's just an example of a population measure not being an appropriate measure for an individual.

    4 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

    Yes they've been good, but xG suggests that they (and their counterpart leaders Arsenal in the PL) have a few more points than they'd perhaps be expected to.

    Or maybe they have significantly better players than average.  Consequently whilst it might be a 0.2 chance for the average player it will a 0.3 chance for one of theirs.  Or maybe with both clubs having lots of goal scorers that works better.

    • Like 2
  6. 19 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

    We're not doing that in two main ways. 

    1. We're averaging only 9.9 shots a game, and only 3.17 on target. Top 6 teams tend to be more like 12 and 4, and top two will often be on 15 and 5. It's a big difference and it's why we don't seem to overwhelm or dominate teams.

    2. Naturally the above flows through into xG. This season we are broadly tracking our xG. By my spreadsheet (which takes 4 different sources of xG and has done me pretty solidly for 4 seasons now) we are pretty much on the points we could reasonably be expected to be on based on our xG deltas this season. We have 36 points, my sheet says 33 is par. We've scored 39, conceded 39, my numbers give 36 and 41 for those figures. So my conclusion is that right now we are about where we should be, and so we should not expect or predict any great improvement (or decline) in our points per game in the short term. Top 6 teams either put out excellent figures, or they overperform their numbers to a big degree. We're doing neither.

    My understanding is that the performances so far this season of both Luton (4th) and Blackburn (8th) exceed their xG results by substantially more than City's.

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  7. 1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

    Bring a pedant (in the absence of BS4 on Tour), the rules of the FA Cup changed 4/5 years back

    To be an 'Ultra Pedant' ???:

    1. In the qualifying rounds both teams mutually agree the prices.
    2. In rounds 1 to 6 the home club decides the prices
    3. The FA decides on the prices for the semi-finals and finals.
    • Thanks 2
  8. 7 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

    The FA probably make their money on the TV side and their own marketing.

    Plus a big chunk from the semi-final matches and 90% of the ticket money from the final, the balance on that match goes to the 'Pool'.

    • Like 1
  9. The 'net profit' (as defined by the FA) from the sale of tickets will be split 55% to Bristol City and 45% to Manchester City.    Bristol City get an extra chunk as their opponents are in the Premier League.

    Nothing goes to the FA or any other organisation until the semi-finals nowadays.

    All the other money earned at the ground goes straight to the home club.

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  10. 4 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

    I'd like to see a process whereby if a club are set to breach then the deduction is applied there and then, and then the club can appeal- if it goes to an LAP then that can be sorted by the summer probably. Perhaps the reasonable opinion of the League should be the basis for sanctioning followed by appeal to LAP.

    I think that that would be a recipe for chaos.

     

  11. 7 hours ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

    I suppose my question then, is why (still harking on about FFP and amortisation) we don’t/didn’t offer expensive players (Kalas, Palmer or even Wells) two year contracts with a (discretionary) five year extension.

    To amortise over the 7 years you would need to show that it was likely that you would actually extend.  If you couldn’t you would have to use two years.

    More practically, potentially you would be stuck with a player for another 5 years in a contract you couldn’t break.

    • Like 1
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  12. 46 minutes ago, chalkeyred said:

    'unless you are happy to burn £15m per annum of your own money, stay away from Championship clubs'

    That would be cheap-skating it.

    £13 million - to qualify for £13 million FFP allowance

    £3 million - Academy/Youth football

    £1 million - Women's team

    £1 million - Community work

    That's £18 million.  Then you have to fund the transfer fees up front - another few million a year at least 

    Then capital expenditure.  Depending where you are in the ground/training centre development process anywhere from another couple of million on capital expenditure a year to say £75 million on a new stadium and training centre.

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