Stats Don't Lie...we Are Poor In Final 1/4 Of Season

[headhunter]

These numbers may well have been covered elsewhere but based on past seasons under GJ I think we should already be thinking about 2010/11 season:

Last twleve games in each of the seasons he's been here [win / draw / lose / pts]

05/06 8 2 2 26

06/07 6 3 3 21

07/08 3 4 5 13

08/09 1 5 6 8

09/10 ????

I think we have enough points to avoid the drop barring a cataclysmic return from the next 18 games but we have been poor for the past two seasons.

9 WINS in the last 40 league games says a lot too. We certainly aren't progressing.

[Mr Mosquito]

9 WINS in the last 40 league games says a lot too. We certainly aren't progressing.

Just 9 wins in the last 40 games !!!!!!!

[Hanhamreds]

and this time last year we had won twelve league games, this season only eight!

[CiderHider]

Stats are meaningless.

[Guest]

Stats are meaningless.

Sorry mate but dont agree there; our lack of early goals and habit of conceeding late, seems to mean to me that we are late starters and fall asleep at the end; vital in oppositions preparations against us

and statisically it would also be likely, (taken from our 9 wins in 40) that we are unlikely to win the next 9;

or in fact statisically my posts would suggest I may find it difficult to post something positive about our manager then again stats are there to be bucked I suppose.

[marshy]

Stats are meaningless.

Could you supply us with some data to support your hypothesis?

[numbeast]

There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Mark Twain

[Roger Red Hat]

There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Mark Twain

What don't people understand about 9 wins in 40?

[Mr Mosquito]

What don't people understand about 9 wins in 40?

It's a factual statistic? A pretty crap factual statistic as well.

[Yate Red]

What don't people understand about 9 wins in 40?

Stats oh stats! Are these stats being used by the same people that suggest what Gary has done in the past counts for sweet Fu** A**?!?!?

Lets get our stories straight here either the past counts or it doesn't? If it does GJ is a top manager for getting us promted, to the championship playoff final and a respectable championship side.

If it doesn't count as soooooo many people on here suggest then these stats do mean FU** A**!!!!!!!!!!

[CotswoldRed]

Stats are meaningless.

Can someone let the Football League know that .... if we find ourselves in the bottom 3 come May.

[CiderHider]

Sorry mate but dont agree there; our lack of early goals and habit of conceeding late, seems to mean to me that we are late starters and fall asleep at the end; vital in oppositions preparations against us

and statisically it would also be likely, (taken from our 9 wins in 40) that we are unlikely to win the next 9;

or in fact statisically my posts would suggest I may find it difficult to post something positive about our manager then again stats are there to be bucked I suppose.

Well OK, meaningless in the sense that they only tell you what you should already know and more importantly its just historical data.

If stats can help us win, play well, sign good players etc.. then I'm all for them, but really I don't need a whole buch of numbers to tell me what position we are in, I can see that fine.

[Roger Red Hat]

Stats oh stats! Are these stats being used by the same people that suggest what Gary has done in the past counts for sweet Fu** A**?!?!?

Lets get our stories straight here either the past counts or it doesn't? If it does GJ is a top manager for getting us promted, to the championship playoff final and a respectable championship side.

If it doesn't count as soooooo many people on here suggest then these stats do mean FU** A**!!!!!!!!!!

I think most fans think GJ has done a great job in getting us promoted(except for the few that haven't liked him since day one, for whatever reason, y'know booting out their mate Marcus and stuff like that), but quite a few are also able to see that things are not progressing, in fact the opposite, and are genuinely worried that we are in a serious downward spiral and have been for some time now, hence finding the 9 out of 40, (coupled with loads of draws and not too many wins) disturbing.

The team badly need some inspiration and I don't see that coming from GJ, his demeanour is the opposite at the moment.

There comes a time at every club when change is the only way forward, no matter how great a job the manager has done in the past. I believe it's needed sooner rather than later and it gives me no great pleasure to say this and up until recently I've supported GJ, even when I started having my doubts a while ago.

[RedRaw]

[downendcity]

Well, if we are being pedantic about statistics.

Statistically, we are currently enjoying ( perhaps not the best word to use though) our 4th best season since relegation from the old division 1 in 1980. Johnson has been, and is responsible for 3 of the 4. The other was around '94, when we finished 9th in what is now the championship.

Every statistic is about what has already happened - whether that is 30 years worth, 3 seasons or 3 games. Asinvestment adverts are required to point otu, past eprformance is no guarantee of future returns. The key thing is GJ and the players changing what happens in the future, and your confidence in him being able to do that or not. It is also about the confidence you have that, if Johnson goes that the man who replaces him can improve things.

All that I can see is that for all the faults that many point out with great regularity, Gary Johnson has managed to get this club to a level that 25 years worth of other managers have failed to do. If he is just a conference manager, and not good enough for this level, then how did he do it?

The other thing those statistics show, is that if we do get rid of Gary Johnson , then statistically we are much more likely to get a manager who will fall short of Johnson's acheivements than one who will improve on them. This is not me being a Johnson lover - it's the statistics that prove it!

[CiderHider]

Maybe somebody could let our "esteemed" management team know this as they appear to use stats provided by prozone to form the basis of team selection, tactics etc

Did I mention how wonderful I think stats are?

[Yate Red]

I think most fans think GJ has done a great job in getting us promoted(except for the few that haven't liked him since day one, for whatever reason, y'know booting out their mate Marcus and stuff like that), but quite a few are also able to see that things are not progressing, in fact the opposite, and are genuinely worried that we are in a serious downward spiral and have been for some time now, hence finding the 9 out of 40, (coupled with loads of draws and not too many wins) disturbing.

The team badly need some inspiration and I don't see that coming from GJ, his demeanour is the opposite at the moment.

There comes a time at every club when change is the only way forward, no matter how great a job the manager has done in the past. I believe it's needed sooner rather than later and it gives me no great pleasure to say this and up until recently I've supported GJ, even when I started having my doubts a while ago.

So "change is the only way forward" !!!

A bold statement. So lets hear your grande plan!

My challenge to you is to tell us all how this would be achieved? If this is such an easy thing to do, as so many people on here think it is, lets have an outline plan, if you were the chairman?

Lets have your short list of managers, who could take us forward who are currently available and would want to come to Bristol city, and how much all this would cost the club?

We would have set out a new backroom staff structure and maybe look at bringing in more new players for the new man to stamp his mark! More money!!

Then we would need a new five year plan and goals targets for the new manager?

Then after all that maybe changing the manger wasn't such a good idea as a ouple years down the line Mr X is getting slated on here because we are still mid table in the championship!!

LET HEAR THE PLAN!!!

[CliftonCliff]

When you think about it, a league table is nothing more than a list of accumulated statistics, and there's nothing meaningless about that - especially if it's the final table of the season and you're in the bottom three.

If I'm faced with a choice of relying on stats and the bull we're sometimes fed by those who would have us disregard the evidence of our own eyes, I'm afraid I'd have to take the stats every time, as boring* as they might seem.

*PS No more boring, by the way, than your average "groundhog day" 1-1 draw at AG. I could have sworn I'd seen Saturday's game before. Several times, in fact. Must be muddling it up with a recurring nightmare I've been experiencing.

[Guest]

So "change is the only way forward" !!!

A bold statement. So lets hear your grande plan!

My challenge to you is to tell us all how this would be achieved? If this is such an easy thing to do, as so many people on here think it is, lets have an outline plan, if you were the chairman?

Lets have your short list of managers, who could take us forward who are currently available and would want to come to Bristol city, and how much all this would cost the club?

We would have set out a new backroom staff structure and maybe look at bringing in more new players for the new man to stamp his mark! More money!!

Then we would need a new five year plan and goals targets for the new manager?

Then after all that maybe changing the manger wasn't such a good idea as a ouple years down the line Mr X is getting slated on here because we are still mid table in the championship!!

LET HEAR THE PLAN!!!

S.L will have his finger on the pulse and an eye on ST sales i.m.o. if/when we get anywhere close to the bottom 3 he will take whatever action is required whatever the cost.

There is an ever dwindling number of fans who have faith in our present management, but time will tell and it seems to be running out to me.

[redseptember]

There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Mark Twain

What statistics you quote depend on what theory you are trying to prove.

If you wanted to paint a slightly rosier picture you could quote 15 wins in the last 48 league games. Still not promotion material but a better percentage than the 9 wins out of 40 quoted.

Similarly if you take the last 20 games in the past two seasons, we have won 7, drawn 6 and lost 7 in each season. Still not good enough I know but not such a bleak picture as painted using stats from the last 12 games in each season.

[Yate Red]

S.L will have his finger on the pulse and an eye on ST sales i.m.o. if/when we get anywhere close to the bottom 3 he will take whatever action is required whatever the cost.

There is an ever dwindling number of fans who have faith in our present management, but time will tell and it seems to be running out to me.

SL will have his finger on the pulse! I have every faith in him!

But GJ is his manager and he wants him to take the club forward. I beleive he will given long term charge. I don't think there are too many better options at present.

But no one has answered my question yet? ..............

[WellRedPhil]

Stats are meaningless.

Is this a joke? How is 9 wins in 40 meaningless?

[Guest]

SL will have his finger on the pulse! I have every faith in him!

But GJ is his manager and he wants him to take the club forward. I beleive he will given long term charge. I don't think there are too many better options at present.

But no one has answered my question yet? ..............

Which one ? of the 2 in post 10 or which one of the 4 in post 17 ?

[Chivs]

When you think about it, a league table is nothing more than a list of accumulated statistics, and there's nothing meaningless about that - especially if it's the final table of the season and you're in the bottom three.

If I'm faced with a choice of relying on stats and the bull we're sometimes fed by those who would have us disregard the evidence of our own eyes, I'm afraid I'd have to take the stats every time, as boring* as they might seem.

*PS No more boring, by the way, than your average "groundhog day" 1-1 draw at AG. I could have sworn I'd seen Saturday's game before. Several times, in fact. Must be muddling it up with a recurring nightmare I've been experiencing.

Did you sit in the same seat for all these "groundhog days"? Have the same half time drink and food?

Talk to the same mates? Exchange the same wry comments about wotshisface?

Thought so. You're stuck in this recurring nightmare for a lot longer, I'm afraid.

Unless you come to love Lee Johnson which, if I read the film correctly, is your only way out.

[eskay]

You can twist stats to make read how you want them but we don't need stats to tell us how poor we have been playing for the last few months!

I remember sitting through a lecture once and the lecturer hated statistics and they way they can twist the truth.

His quip was great 'I had a friend who was a statistician once. He drowned walking through a river with an average depth of one metre'! Still make me laugh!!

[CliftonCliff]

Did you sit in the same seat for all these "groundhog days"? Have the same half time drink and food?

Talk to the same mates? Exchange the same wry comments about wotshisface?

Thought so. You're stuck in this recurring nightmare for a lot longer, I'm afraid.

Unless you come to love Lee Johnson which, if I read the film correctly, is your only way out.

Your first paragraph is depressingly accurate, I'm afraid, with the qualification that I went to the same pub and had a laugh with the same guys beforehand, which (like a lot of other people here) is the only bit I'm currently enjoying and the one thing that keeps me turning up. Well, that and the fact that I paid £570 up front at the end of last season for the privelege.

And on that subject (and this comment sahould probably go on another thread), not only am I being asked to renew for next season earlier and earlier each year, but I am also getting a £30 price hike as a reward for my loyalty in the face of near-terminal boredom. After nearly fifty years of supporting the club and decades of being a season ticket holder (so you can hardly accuse me of being a quitter), I am seriously asking myself if I'm prepared to cough up. And it seems I'm not the only one. SL should be worried if people like me are hesitating.

[Portland Bill]

Average gate DOWN 2,500 on last season and 5,000 on the previous season.

20 draws in the last 38 home games.

Just a few more stats.

[The Casual Connoisseur]

Stats are meaningless.

The league table is just a bunch of stats! So no stats are not meaningless.

[eskay]

Your first paragraph is depressingly accurate, I'm afraid, with the qualification that I went to the same pub and had a laugh with the same guys beforehand, which (like a lot of other people here) is the only bit I'm currently enjoying and the one thing that keeps me turning up. Well, that and the fact that I paid £570 up front at the end of last season for the privelege.

And on that subject (and this comment sahould probably go on another thread), not only am I being asked to renew for next season earlier and earlier each year, but I am also getting a £30 price hike as a reward for my loyalty in the face of near-terminal boredom. After nearly fifty years of supporting the club and decades of being a season ticket holder (so you can hardly accuse me of being a quitter), I am seriously asking myself if I'm prepared to cough up. And it seems I'm not the only one. SL should be worried if people like me are hesitating.

Someone should send these comments into the club. It is a real worry when so many people are making the same statement over and over again particularly when people have been supporting the club for half a century and are totally dissatissfied.

I have yet to talk to a city fan face to face who does not think that Johnson should go and who does not think it is a chore going to Ashton Gate and who is relishing another season of the same.

There appear to be a handful on here who think everything is OK, but do they exist in the 'real' world??

[Danny P]

Its not just the stats though is it, lately the football has been dire no entertainment value at all! Why have we changed the way we play this season everybody knows how they like to see city play and its not happening and the buck im afraid stops with the manager he sold mcindoe for what ever reason and failed to replace him, surely you line up a replacement before you sell you wouldnt sell your house without lining up somewhere else to live would you! All we seem to do is stop other teams playing which in turn stops us from playing its got to stop or maybe we could be dragged into an end of season battle im not saying he has to go but surely something has to change soon we cant carry on like this can we!