Always Believesham Posted February 13, 2013 Report Share Posted February 13, 2013 I reckon 54 points is what will be needed to stay up - just a hunch and have said it since Jan 1st Going down for me; Posh, Wolves/Brum, Sheff Weds/Us Huddersfield - bringing Robins in could give them just enough to stay up. At the moment the only thing keeping me sain is aiming for the points we would need to stay up for certain now. Every sod around us keeps winning and like a cruel twist of fate, whereas in previous seasons, teams have been playing so badly it looks like they're trying to get relegated and failing, now it's us Barnsley and Peterboro' in the drop zone who between us have got the same points as the top 3 in the last 5 games. This championship if full of distinctly average teams floating on a wave of confidence at the start of september bar a ouple of exceptions where teams, who are good teams don't get me wrong, would struggle to keep pace in the Championship of 08-09 &10-11. It also makes it impossible to bet on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted February 13, 2013 Report Share Posted February 13, 2013 A pretty good indicator of how things will turn out is goal difference. Teams with significantly bad goal difference tend to be the ones that fail in the end, and it is interesting to note that the two teams with the worst goal difference in the division (worse than any in the bottom three) are Huddersfield (-18) and Ipswich (-19). If 54 points are needed to stay up, then I think we are in trouble. 23 points from the final 15 matches is a very big ask: W7 D2 L6, or W6 D5 L4. Not impossible though I suppose. If we get three points or more from our next two away games, I think we'll have cause to be confident. Two points and I'll reserve judgement. One or no points and I'll be feeling very depressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
semblar Posted February 13, 2013 Report Share Posted February 13, 2013 What frustrates me with this kind of thread is the assumption made by many (most?) on here that all the teams around us will continue their current run of form, but that any upsurge for us will naturally come to an end in due course. There are so many permutations - especially given the number of teams involved or potentially involved - that picking a number of points required is no more than a "gut feel" 48 points would have seen survival in 6 out of the last 8 seasons. neither 49 points nor 50 points would not have seen any better than this. Yet people still talk of 50 as being some kind of magic total - why? There are a lot of the teams around us still to play each other. We play a good many of them too. But many people ignore that in coming to their conclusions - it makes a big difference, as it's impossible for those teams to both get 3 points. Having said all that, I do agree with the general perception that this season will need more points than "the average". For those that like numbercrunching, somebody posted this site last season http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/BristolCity.html The site crunches a randomised set of results for all the remaining fixtures about 3 million times (with a few forced to be "win all" or "lose all" to ensure the complete range is shown) The main importance for us is one of the columns to the right called "League 1". After the Forest match, the aggregated total gives us 51% to be in League one - or 49% to stay up. It shows quite a dramatic drop in the risk of relegation over the 47-52 points range: 47 - 5% chance of staying up (rounded to nearest 5%) 48 - 10% 49 - 25% 50 - 40% 51 - 65% 52 - 80% There is a (tiny) mathematical chance of going down on 57 points - but also a (tiny) mathematical chance of staying up with only 42. One final note is the "who we should root for" section near the top. A "forced" win at either Cardiff or Palace reduces our chances of relegation by a large amount (about 15%!) and increases the average final league position from the 3m simulations by over one place - one more reason for those of us who can travel to get there and get behind the lads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garland-sweden Posted February 13, 2013 Report Share Posted February 13, 2013 Got a feeling that we would make it. Our homegames are a plus factor. Think we can also win some awaygames. Keep the faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Believesham Posted February 13, 2013 Report Share Posted February 13, 2013 Having said all that, I do agree with the general perception that this season will need more points than "the average". For those that like numbercrunching, somebody posted this site last season http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/BristolCity.html The site crunches a randomised set of results for all the remaining fixtures about 3 million times (with a few forced to be "win all" or "lose all" to ensure the complete range is shown) The main importance for us is one of the columns to the right called "League 1". After the Forest match, the aggregated total gives us 51% to be in League one - or 49% to stay up. It shows quite a dramatic drop in the risk of relegation over the 47-52 points range: Is this based on standard deviation? I have noticed that there are some fascinating blanks, for example W13 - D2 - L0 gives you less permutations finishing in the play-offs than W13 - D1 - L1. Win 8 games and we stay up simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
semblar Posted February 13, 2013 Report Share Posted February 13, 2013 Is this based on standard deviation? I have noticed that there are some fascinating blanks, for example W13 - D2 - L0 gives you less permutations finishing in the play-offs than W13 - D1 - L1. Win 8 games and we stay up simple. It's based on "weighted results" - essentially form adjusting the chance for each possibility (W/L/D). There is also a version you can select with unweighted results which gives a wider spread. The results are literally taken from 3 million or so "runs" of the remaining fixtures for the division - each one has a final table recorded along with theW/L/D record, which is summarised in the tables you see for each team. You're right that it can throw up some quirks, but it is a fascinating attempt to put some rigour into this kind of debate. This simulation effort is apparently redone after each set of fixtures is played as well, which appealed to my inner geek I assume this kind of forecast is a bit ike the weather forecasts when they talk of "conflicting results" for snow forecasts a few days away, which then "firm up" as you get closer to the endpoint. Hopefully by then we will have a far lower chance of relegation being predicted, starting on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted February 13, 2013 Report Share Posted February 13, 2013 What rubbish on this thread. The question is can we still make the play-offs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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