Vincent Vega Posted October 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 The law of averages is a myth. If you flip a coin 100 times you will not get a distribution of 50 heads and 50 tails because every flip is an independent event and is not influenced by what has happened before. Similarly, every game we play is independent so the fact that we have not won in 20 has no effect on the likelihood of us winning, losing or drawing the next. If you believe in the law of averages your local casino will be delighted to welcome you to the roulette wheel though. jeeeeez...........you must be a barrel of laughs at a party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aizoon Posted October 20, 2013 Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 jeeeeez...........you must be a barrel of laughs at a party But he's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted October 20, 2013 Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 jeeeeez...........you must be a barrel of laughs at a party Sorry, the truth is often a pretty dull thing. Still, in football especially people tend to live in a fantasy world where something will just turn up. Wear the lucky suit, always put your kit on in the same order, be the last to leave the dressing, blame it all on bad luck. Relying on the alleged law of averages is just another superstition. Better than taking responsibility though. Fortunately I doubt SOD is daft enough to go in for all that stuff. And you'll always find me in the kitchen at parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fiale Posted October 20, 2013 Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 Sorry, the truth is often a pretty dull thing. Still, in football especially people tend to live in a fantasy world where something will just turn up. Wear the lucky suit, always put your kit on in the same order, be the last to leave the dressing, blame it all on bad luck. Relying on the alleged law of averages is just another superstition. Better than taking responsibility though. Fortunately I doubt SOD is daft enough to go in for all that stuff. And you'll always find me in the kitchen at parties. I think the problem is a lot of people don't really understand the principle. It only really applies to probabilities of measurable outcomes where there is no deviation in the action performed... The more you toss a coin the more likelihood you will get a 50/50 outcome, in a small example howevet the outcome could be almost anything... As to football, their ate too many variables for averages to apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted October 20, 2013 Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 I think the problem is a lot of people don't really understand the principle. It only really applies to probabilities of measurable outcomes where there is no deviation in the action performed... The more you toss a coin the more likelihood you will get a 50/50 outcome, in a small example howevet the outcome could be almost anything... As to football, their ate too many variables for averages to apply. Ah, the Law of Large Numbers. Let's face it this country is more innumerate than it is illiterate so it's not surprising so many people believe in the so called law of averages. Unfortunately for us the number of games in a season is not a large number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoingUp Posted October 20, 2013 Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 , we need to do something that we haven't done since the first day of the season, score the first bloody goal in a home game! Brentfords away record won2 drawn2 lost2, nothing to be frightened of and a chance for the players to take out their frustrations on a team who may come withan attitude of taking us for granted.go for it from the start please and don't just turn up at half-time is my request to SoD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecretSam Posted October 20, 2013 Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 In my experience this has happened often with City In my early days, when Joe Jordan was early in his first stint with us, we were 10 games without a win, his head was on the block We played Huddersfield at home. We were 5-0 up in 25 minutes, totally surreal. Next season we flew up and out of the division. Patience and belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Mosquito Posted October 20, 2013 Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 In my experience this has happened often with City In my early days, when Joe Jordan was early in his first stint with us, we were 10 games without a win, his head was on the block We played Huddersfield at home. We were 5-0 up in 25 minutes, totally surreal. Next season we flew up and out of the division. Patience and belief. ....but Joe Jordan was often on the pitch as player-manager and leading from the front !!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecretSam Posted October 20, 2013 Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 ....but Joe Jordan was often on the pitch as player-manager and leading from the front !!!!!!!! Not in the promotion season he wasn't, he'd hung up his boots by then. The number 9 role belonged by then to Robbie "quite a big unit, really" Turner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Maesknoll Red Posted October 20, 2013 Admin Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 In my experience this has happened often with City In my early days, when Joe Jordan was early in his first stint with us, we were 10 games without a win, his head was on the block We played Huddersfield at home. We were 5-0 up in 25 minutes, totally surreal. Next season we flew up and out of the division. Patience and belief. Often might be a slight exaggeration........ 20 games is an exceptional run, shame its not 20 wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kaiser Posted October 20, 2013 Report Share Posted October 20, 2013 Turner was 11 and Taylor was 9 weren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reading Red UTC Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 Just to re-iterate what chinapig is saying, and this is coming from a qualified statistician. The "law of averages" is a buzz word which sometimes get thrown about in the media to describe the outcome of a match. Unfortunately this is a load of rubbish. Even over a very long period of time it won't balance out (you may find some rare examples of it). The outcome of a football match is an impossible thing to predict as there are possibly hundreds of variables which have an influence of an outcome on a match. Many people (including me) have tried the model the outcome of a match taking into account things like home or away, the opposition, form etc. but it's just impossible to accurately achieve. The person that does come up with a system will be very very rich. That's my ten pence worth I don't post very often but it's nice to be able to apply my profession to football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Horsman Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 Probably Josef Fritzl, he's used to spending time in the basement. the 'Family Club' have got him lined up to replace Ward. They want someone who is well used to spending a very long time in and around the basement..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Brent Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 the 'Family Club' have got him lined up to replace Ward. They want someone who is well used to spending a very long time in and around the basement..... He'd certainly do his best to help them maintain that 'family club' status too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
semblar Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 The law of averages is a myth. If you flip a coin 100 times you will not get a distribution of 50 heads and 50 tails because every flip is an independent event and is not influenced by what has happened before. Similarly, every game we play is independent so the fact that we have not won in 20 has no effect on the likelihood of us winning, losing or drawing the next. If you believe in the law of averages your local casino will be delighted to welcome you to the roulette wheel though. But they do - take the roulette wheel for example. The winning payout levels are based on 36 possible end results, but 37 slots on the wheel. "In the long run the casino will win" is precisely based on the law of averages.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reading Red UTC Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 But they do - take the roulette wheel for example. The winning payout levels are based on 36 possible end results, but 37 slots on the wheel. "In the long run the casino will win" is precisely based on the law of averages.... Roulette dealers are highly trained individuals. It is definitely not random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoldenBall Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 We should organise a friendly against one of the teams from the downs, Just to get confidence back But that would probably turn out bad for us We already have played one of those teams from the downs, and we beat them 2-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivs Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 Just to re-iterate what chinapig is saying, and this is coming from a qualified statistician. The "law of averages" is a buzz word which sometimes get thrown about in the media to describe the outcome of a match. Unfortunately this is a load of rubbish. Even over a very long period of time it won't balance out (you may find some rare examples of it). The outcome of a football match is an impossible thing to predict as there are possibly hundreds of variables which have an influence of an outcome on a match. Many people (including me) have tried the model the outcome of a match taking into account things like home or away, the opposition, form etc. but it's just impossible to accurately achieve. The person that does come up with a system will be very very rich. That's my ten pence worth I don't post very often but it's nice to be able to apply my profession to football. So, if we play Man Utd 10 times, on average, you cannot predict who will win more than the other . Come to that, if we play any other League 1 team ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aizoon Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 So, if we play Man Utd 10 times, on average, you cannot predict who will win more than the other . Come to that, if we play any other League 1 team ..... You can predict that Man U will win 9 times out of ten (or 99 times out of 100, more like). What you can't predict is which will be that one time when they don't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always Believesham Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 listening to Leroy on the FL Show last night, he commented about our position and that the danger is that the belief will be sucked out of the players the longer we go without a win. A few weeks back, when so many commented on how well we were playing and just not getting the results, I felt reasonably hopeful. My worry now is that the players become resigned to disappointment and almost start to expect it, lose positivity and that disappointment becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. The performance away at Port Vale wasn't too bad; once in a while, the players turn up and want to play - The players have shown they are capable of playing some really good stuff, when they turn up Still, in football especially people tend to live in a fantasy world where something will just turn up. Wear the lucky suit, always put your kit on in the same order, be the last to leave the dressing, blame it all on bad luck. This is often put down to superstition, but it just develops into a ritual which can merely make a player feel better if he does it - it won't bring fortune but it can help a player focus. It's all about that "Zone" where psycologically you're in a good place & physically you're in a good place there's a good chance you'll perform to your highest level. I get the overall point - using the roullette wheel though You have more chance of spinning the wheel 37 times and getting 37 different numbers than of getting the number 4 every time (Just) The law of averages is used in place of the hope that you won't have such an unfortunate run that you loose every time no matter how much you increase your chances of winning (or decrease your chances of loosing _____________________________ I'm sure SOD mentioned the law of averages right at the start of his tenure - saying that the clean sheets thing couldn't be resolved because you will always have last minute penalties and dodgy decisions that you can do nothing about. The linking point being, if you perform well consistently, the law of averages states that you cannot have one of these spoof decisions costing you in every game... quite unfortunate really come to think of it because when we've played well, the tiniest things have cost us. Equally, when the opposition have played badly, they have got lucky (Crewe, Port Vale) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vincent Vega Posted October 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 All i meant by the title was,we have played very well in patches this season, Swindon and the sags for example where lots of chances are created and with a little more luck could have turned into proper spankings for both the above. The actual mathematical equations regarding averages are sadly of less interest to me.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 Crikey, I didn't expect quite such a response! I won't prolong things but thanks for some interesting responses, especially to FOD City. Suffice to say I am no statistician but I have learned a lot from working alongside a few over the years. Anyway, whatever fans may think as long as SOD and the players don't think a win will just happen because we are "due" but actually do something different to make it happen we won't have to have a thread about statistics again for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vincent Vega Posted October 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 Crikey, I didn't expect quite such a response! I won't prolong things but thanks for some interesting responses, especially to FOD City. Suffice to say I am no statistician but I have learned a lot from working alongside a few over the years. Anyway, whatever fans may think as long as SOD and the players don't think a win will just happen because we are "due" but actually do something different to make it happen we won't have to have a thread about statistics again for a while. law of averages say's it will only be a matter of time....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted October 21, 2013 Report Share Posted October 21, 2013 law of averages say's it will only be a matter of time....... You little devil . Anyway, there is no such thing as time .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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