yardy Posted September 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2014 Thanks for clearing that up but how could this help in my situation? There wasn't one team to play in my accy, as far as i know they all kicked off at 3pm and the team that let me down was 2-1 up with 3mins to go... *reply to dezigmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123456789000 Posted September 28, 2014 Report Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frome Red Posted September 28, 2014 Report Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Red Posted September 28, 2014 Report Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North London Red Posted September 28, 2014 Report Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somerset Red Posted September 28, 2014 Report Share Posted September 28, 2014 Still 18's with Bet 365. Correct. We're odds on to get promoted(8/13), but MK Dons are 11/4. After yesterdays impressive performance might be a nice little cover bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTFiGO!?! Posted September 28, 2014 Report Share Posted September 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East End Old Boy Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Correct. We're odds on to get promoted(8/13), but MK Dons are 11/4. After yesterdays impressive performance might be a nice little cover bet?Interesting, although I'm currently happy to stick with my bet that City will win the league, which will pay for my season ticket, a bet I do every year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezgimed Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Thanks for clearing that up but how could this help in my situation? There wasn't one team to play in my accy, as far as i know they all kicked off at 3pm and the team that let me down was 2-1 up with 3mins to go... *reply to dezigmed Ah it wouldn't help in that case then, it only really works if you have 1 team left on your accy and they're a later kick off or the next day etc. Accumulators really as mostly luck. All the research in the world won't necessarily come through all at once with 5-6+ games. I don't know a single professional gambler/trader who uses accumulators for anything other than fun, if they even do them at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cider-manc Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusX Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusX Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North London Red Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red white and red Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezgimed Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North London Red Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 73 consecutive bets at odds of 1.10, you realise why that doesn't work? Clue is in what the 1.10 represents. Will work once or twice for one lucky SOB, but chances are won't work. Yes, of course...getting 1, 5 or even 10 in a row at odds of 1-10 is perfectly feasible but extrapolating that out to 73, it is of course unlikely to work (otherwise I wouldn't be setting my alarm clock to go to work every morning!). A similar scheme is to bet against 0-0 (on Betfair this would be laying 0-0; on most other sites you'd bet on there being more than 0.5 goals). Pick any game where you think there will be at least one goal, put a tenner on it, and then if it wins, put the proceeds on another, and so on. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Celtic almost always score at home; teams at the bottom of the table generally concede away from home - but again it is surprisingly difficult to get more than about 15 consecutive winning bets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezgimed Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Yes, of course...getting 1, 5 or even 10 in a row at odds of 1-10 is perfectly feasible but extrapolating that out to 73, it is of course unlikely to work (otherwise I wouldn't be setting my alarm clock to go to work every morning!). A similar scheme is to bet against 0-0 (on Betfair this would be laying 0-0; on most other sites you'd bet on there being more than 0.5 goals). Pick any game where you think there will be at least one goal, put a tenner on it, and then if it wins, put the proceeds on another, and so on. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Celtic almost always score at home; teams at the bottom of the table generally concede away from home - but again it is surprisingly difficult to get more than about 15 consecutive winning bets here. Same thing then, as you'll be laying at 1.05-1.15 max for said teams. The best sort of schemes like this are prob to back something at 1.8 - 2.1 and reinvest the proceeds. Very difficult but with some good research you can find bets at those sort of odds that should really be 1.4 - 1.6. Gives you half a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North London Red Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Another one I've looked at is 'both teams to score'. It generally happens in 55% of games across the top five English leagues and the top leagues in Europe (I've got statistics going back about 5 years and it almost always comes out around 55% - although for some reason in the Greek and Portuguese top flights, it is nearer to 40% - and yes, I am a bit of a geek). Most bookies generally offer 50/50 odds on 'both teams to score - yes' - but if it happens in 55% of matches, theoretically it should be possible to take advantage. I did have some success with this a couple of years back but of late it's been more a case of breaking even. In any given season, some teams will be much more likely to be involved in matches where both teams score (City were one of these teams last season) and of course, the bookies are wise to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezgimed Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Another one I've looked at is 'both teams to score'. It generally happens in 55% of games across the top five English leagues and the top leagues in Europe (I've got statistics going back about 5 years and it almost always comes out around 55% - although for some reason in the Greek and Portuguese top flights, it is nearer to 40% - and yes, I am a bit of a geek). Most bookies generally offer 50/50 odds on 'both teams to score - yes' - but if it happens in 55% of matches, theoretically it should be possible to take advantage. I did have some success with this a couple of years back but of late it's been more a case of breaking even. In any given season, some teams will be much more likely to be involved in matches where both teams score (City were one of these teams last season) and of course, the bookies are wise to this. Where do you get your stats from out of interest? BTTS is a tough one. It's the holy grail for certain trading systems. I'd imagine Serie B, Brazil A and Greece are the worst from experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeh Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 748 quid on a 5 pound bet picking out 4 draws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGhost Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North London Red Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Where do you get your stats from out of interest? BTTS is a tough one. It's the holy grail for certain trading systems. I'd imagine Serie B, Brazil A and Greece are the worst from experience. I got them from this site, which has results in excel format (including half time scores) going back many years: http://football-data.co.uk/data.php Being a bit of a geek, I've got all these results in one excel spreadsheet, from where it is very easy to filter which games (and with which teams) feature both teams scoring - and from where, in theory, it is possible to work out which games in a given weekend are statistically most likely to have both teams scoring. I've used the same method for games featuring more than 2.5 goals (or fewer than 2.5 goals), which is another market that can give very good returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezgimed Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 I got them from this site, which has results in excel format (including half time scores) going back many years: http://football-data.co.uk/data.php Being a bit of a geek, I've got all these results in one excel spreadsheet, from where it is very easy to filter which games (and with which teams) feature both teams scoring - and from where, in theory, it is possible to work out which games in a given weekend are statistically most likely to have both teams scoring. I've used the same method for games featuring more than 2.5 goals (or fewer than 2.5 goals), which is another market that can give very good returns. 2.5 is usually about EVS also isn't it? So yeh any half decent edge you can identify would yield pretty well. Seen those spreadsheets before actually. I'm currently building my own, about 1,000 games in across 40 odd leagues. Hard work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezgimed Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Although should add that any info you have, the bookies and exchanges will have so it'll be reflected in the price. Won't be as easy as just identifying teams with O2.5 and BTTS etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTFiGO!?! Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dezgimed Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grubby Posted September 29, 2014 Report Share Posted September 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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