Aaron Wilbraham - OPTA (On-field perfomance tested (by) Alessandro) Statistics

[joe jordans teeth]

Unless you're stevie wonder and even he would say wilbs wasn't the best tonight 

[WhistleHappy]

...some people live on stats, they're like food and drink to some of us, and are very good for lowering cholesterol, allegedly, debatably, overall stats are useful/harmful?

Stats -good/bad? ... Discuss.. or not.

Seems to me Wilbs has certainly 'still got it' - most aren't disputing that, many believe for around an hour or so though before he tires, maybe if fresh legs are still available from the bench around the 70min then a substitution option should sometimes be utilised. 

I'd rather have a meaningful contribution from a quality player for about an hour or so, rather than see that player trying to 'save himself' for a full ninety, as long as Wilbs continues to give his all for as long as he can during matches criticism is undue... the on field duration is not in his hands. (& he did play a major part in K J's late chance last night)  Not a problem for me to trust Cotts judgement, maybe we should sit and enjoy watching what we pay to watch as fans and supporters of each and every red-shirted player on the pitch at any given time...  rather than trying to be amateur managers, opinions are great of course but while a player is out there giving his best & a manager is clearly passionate and just as eager for results as the fans are -let them get on with their jobs while we get on with supporting them whole heartedly... There's clearly not much wrong with any of our personnel on the pitch or for the most part the performances they put in.. most believe the results we need are coming, so Cotts can't be doing a bad job either. 

Moan and groan when its justified - we all share frustrations - just don't routinely do so for the sake of it, cos that's a nasty habit to get out of, becomes infectious and definitely hinders rather than helping anyone.

[Rob k]

they don't lie of course its just they don't tell you nothing,it may tell you you had 70% of possession and created no chances,a human eye could pretty much tell you that

stats are something like 8 goals in over 70 games at this level, those stats would suggest he's not good enough at this level, 

or do you go back to trusting your own eyes at what you see.....

[Mad Cyril]

nor are the millions of fans who seem to churn out stats

I spot irony. Do I win a fiver? 

 

[EstoniaTallinnRed]

Why is almost everything topic turned into a slanging match on this Forum?

[downendcity]

Stats: the death of football analysis. 

55% of fans agree with this .

45% disagree.

 

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

73.27% of stats on this forum are inaccurate .

[BCFC_Dan]

Even if he goes for 100 headers in the first half and doesn't win a single one, that's 100 headers that his opponent has also had to make and in which Wilbs may or may not have subtly managed to land a blow on him. By the 89th minute, said centre half could be battered, bruised and knackered from winning all those headers against Wilbs, when he has to go up for one against Kodjia which his lack of energy prevents him from winning. Kodjia scores a goal and finishes the game with 1 attempted header, 1 won and 1 goal to show for it. Wilbs meanwhile has made 100+ and won 0. Has he contributed nothing to the game?

It's a slightly contrived example, perhaps, but it's not 100% lacking in truth. In order for stats to be useful, you have to be measuring the right things. If you don't measure all the right things you don't get a complete picture.

[Murraysrightplum]

I think he gets credit for what he does but equally there are times when we need fresh legs and something different up front. In the last 20 minute last night kodjia was winning long balls, holding the ball up to give the midfield time to help, then steaming 50 yards into the box to get on the end of a cross. As I said in the match thread basically playing the role of two strikers.

I think Wilbs had a decent game but it was crying out for a change about 20 minutes to go. Why Cox didn't come on is beyond me

 

[pongo88]

Interesting stats, but does he look like he's going to score a goal? Yes, against Forest, but in most matches the answer is "no". There is no reason why a player can't contribute to the play with headers, passes etc and score. These players may be hard to find and may not be cheap but they are out there. (And some of them have pace and can last 90 minutes)

[UREDS_91]

I think Kodjia last night proved that he can play part of the Wilbraham role, he held the ball up well, then when played the ball off had the speed to spin and get into the box ready for the cross, something that Wilbs isnt able to do. Why he wasnt subbed in the last 10-15mins for agard or cox is strange. Other than Steve wanting to play for the draw.

 

[Spoons]

Argued with own mates last night about wilbs. He seems to be taking stick for everything. Last night was not his fault we didn't win. Other players missed chances etc. As captain he will take stick and obviously SC rates him highly. If you take him out of the team we will have no leadership / experience. One thing that should happen is him getting subbed earlier sometimes.

[Alessandro]

I think Kodjia last night proved that he can play part of the Wilbraham role, he held the ball up well, then when played the ball off had the speed to spin and get into the box ready for the cross, something that Wilbs isnt able to do. Why he wasnt subbed in the last 10-15mins for agard or cox is strange. Other than Steve wanting to play for the draw.

 

I've got to disagree with this partly Streety. Kodjia was beaten to pretty much every long ball aimed in his direction for the majority of the game last night.

What did happen though was in the last 10/15 mins the Cardiff defence tired dramatically, completely backed off, giving the Kodjia several unchallenged long balls that he could hold up and lay off. Even Michael Owen could do that with space, he was no target man. Kodjia is a gem, but a target man he is not. 

Interesting about the subs - I can only think he wanted to keep things tight, and TBF to the team we were on top as the game went on (but for the Ameobi chance), maybe he felt we could create that final chance.

[Super]

It's obvious why he gets picked sadly some of our fans can't see it. 

[1960maaan]

Stats are fine for some things, but prove little. They are good for tracking player performance in as much as they tell how hard they work.

Other stats , not so much, That's why teams still send scouts out. 

From last night :  shots on target Us 6, them 0 .  What that doesn't say is the 2 chances they created were one guilt edge header and a virtual open goal.  Stats are good as a part of analysis, no more.

Argued with own mates last night about wilbs. He seems to be taking stick for everything. Last night was not his fault we didn't win. Other players missed chances etc. As captain he will take stick and obviously SC rates him highly. If you take him out of the team we will have no leadership / experience. One thing that should happen is him getting subbed earlier sometimes.

 I've said before, I think some of the feeling comes from SC's determination for Wilbs to play every minute. I know he likes his defensive attributes, but if were at a stage where he's defending that much why not bring on another defender? In open play he'd be up with Kodjia so no help defending there. We have Agard and a loanee on the bench getting no match time at all, who's to say bringing on fresh (quicker) legs wouldn't have given us the win. And there you have it, if he doesn't try it he can't prove it doesn't work.

Last year Agard was getting stick as a few people couldn't see what he brought to the team. This year the more he doesn't play the more people call for him to play. As for Cox, it's almost as though he's here as cover for Kodjia. If he can't get on for a tiring Wilbs that leaves JK who has been playing well and lasting the pace. Don't understand that one.

[UncleAlbert]

That game was crying out for Karleigh Osborne upfront. Should never have let him go, he's had more game time as a city striker than Cox, the stats don't lie. 

[UREDS_91]

I've got to disagree with this partly Streety. Kodjia was beaten to pretty much every long ball aimed in his direction for the majority of the game last night.

What did happen though was in the last 10/15 mins the Cardiff defence tired dramatically, completely backed off, giving the Kodjia several unchallenged long balls that he could hold up and lay off. Even Michael Owen could do that with space, he was no target man. Kodjia is a gem, but a target man he is not. 

Interesting about the subs - I can only think he wanted to keep things tight, and TBF to the team we were on top as the game went on (but for the Ameobi chance), maybe he felt we could create that final chance.

From where I was watching it I thought that Wilbs only won a couple of flicks and that was about it,  Kodjia opened the play up when he received it with his skill then playing the ball out wide to the wing backs. Not sure I saw Wilbs do that once... Don't get me wrong I do like Wilbs, but when it comes to 75 mins he isnt effective at all. Its that time when the opposition defense is tired and Kodjia is able to get those balls that we should have another "Off the shoulder" striker on to be up there with Kodjia for support. Something that we were missing in the last 15 mins of last nights game.

 

[Alessandro]

Stats are fine for some things, but prove little. They are good for tracking player performance in as much as they tell how hard they work.

Other stats , not so much, That's why teams still send scouts out. 

From last night :  shots on target Us 6, them 0 .  What that doesn't say is the 2 chances they created were one guilt edge header and a virtual open goal.  Stats are good as a part of analysis, no more.

When I posted these stats, I never thought it would become a debate on the validity of stats. Nor did I say the stats were detailed, correct or gospel. 

Of course they're open to interpretation, but as you say yourself, they are part of analysis. So I put these out there for 'analysis' of Wilbraham, just to offer something else to the OTIB usual comments.

To counter the argument that he never wins anything in the air, for example: 6 of the 10 long balls I counted him winning in the second half, ended in possession to City. I would guess that at least 5 of those were in the opposition half.

Just analysis, not gospel. Just a thought.

[downendcity]

It's obvious why he gets picked sadly some of our fans can't see it. 

I can see why he's picked.

What I can't see is why he is not subbed when his legs have gone. It's not because he is a liability, but he stops us defending from the front. It is little coincidence that we are under pressure in the second half of many games, and have conceded many late goals, because Kodjia cant pressure defenders all by himself once Wilbs is unable to do so. This gives them the ability to play the ball out of defence, rather than hitting long balls.

Seems to me that Cotts is frightened to sub him for fear of what we lose when he's not on the pitch. Perhaps he might try subbing him to see what we might gain by someone else being on the pitch.

 

 

[Alessandro]

From where I was watching it I thought that Wilbs only won a couple of flicks and that was about it,  Kodjia opened the play up when he received it with his skill then playing the ball out wide to the wing backs. Not sure I saw Wilbs do that once... Don't get me wrong I do like Wilbs, but when it comes to 75 mins he isnt effective at all. Its that time when the opposition defense is tired and Kodjia is able to get those balls that we should have another "Off the shoulder" striker on to be up there with Kodjia for support. Something that we were missing in the last 15 mins of last nights game.

 

This is why I did the stats, would your opinion change if you knew he:

Won 10 out of 13 long ball challenges in the second half.

Resulting in in 6 completed lay off's flick on's and possession for City.

R.E after 75 mins, he won more headers as the game went on actually, including the flick on to Kodjia towards the end. 

Anyway, i'm not Wilbs son or favourite fan or secret lover or whatever, just looking from another angle

[1960maaan]

When I posted these stats, I never thought it would become a debate on the validity of stats. Nor did I say the stats were detailed, correct or gospel. 

Of course they're open to interpretation, but as you say yourself, they are part of analysis. So I put these out there for 'analysis' of Wilbraham, just to offer something else to the OTIB usual comments.

To counter the argument that he never wins anything in the air, for example: 6 of the 10 long balls I counted him winning in the second half, ended in possession to City. I would guess that at least 5 of those were in the opposition half.

Just analysis, not gospel. Just a thought.

Pretty much anything you post on a forum has the ability to start a debate ! It's , almost , sort of the point 

I was just trying to be the voice of reason. Stats are used a lot, and can be good , but can also be twisted to prove more than one point.

I could have fallen into the trap of slating Wilbs and your stats prove me wrong, but then the whole game stats could prove another point.

I probably have said 'player X' did nothing, won nothing ,didn't find a pass. It's usually exaggeration to prove a point. Perhaps I should start saying hardly rather than never .

[downendcity]

When I posted these stats, I never thought it would become a debate on the validity of stats. Nor did I say the stats were detailed, correct or gospel. 

Of course they're open to interpretation, but as you say yourself, they are part of analysis. So I put these out there for 'analysis' of Wilbraham, just to offer something else to the OTIB usual comments.

To counter the argument that he never wins anything in the air, for example: 6 of the 10 long balls I counted him winning in the second half, ended in possession to City. I would guess that at least 5 of those were in the opposition half.

Just analysis, not gospel. Just a thought.

Has this become a debate about the validity of statistics?

Perhaps other posters can share their views on this issue to help us arrive at the definitive answer.

 

 

 

[Alessandro]

Pretty much anything you post on a forum has the ability to start a debate ! It's , almost , sort of the point 

You've taken what i've said there completely out of context. Debate is great. As i've written several times in this thread.

What I said was I thought my stats would provide debate about Wilbs not about stats! No problem either way, but you suggest slightly here I don't realise that, I do, and that's why i'm here on the forum. 

[Spoons]

Stats are fine for some things, but prove little. They are good for tracking player performance in as much as they tell how hard they work.

Other stats , not so much, That's why teams still send scouts out. 

From last night :  shots on target Us 6, them 0 .  What that doesn't say is the 2 chances they created were one guilt edge header and a virtual open goal.  Stats are good as a part of analysis, no more.

 

 I've said before, I think some of the feeling comes from SC's determination for Wilbs to play every minute. I know he likes his defensive attributes, but if were at a stage where he's defending that much why not bring on another defender? In open play he'd be up with Kodjia so no help defending there. We have Agard and a loanee on the bench getting no match time at all, who's to say bringing on fresh (quicker) legs wouldn't have given us the win. And there you have it, if he doesn't try it he can't prove it doesn't work.

Last year Agard was getting stick as a few people couldn't see what he brought to the team. This year the more he doesn't play the more people call for him to play. As for Cox, it's almost as though he's here as cover for Kodjia. If he can't get on for a tiring Wilbs that leaves JK who has been playing well and lasting the pace. Don't understand that one.

agree with most of that. It definitely seems cox is cover for kodja.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lrrr]

Stats.....

 

 

[Rob k]

Even if he goes for 100 headers in the first half and doesn't win a single one, that's 100 headers that his opponent has also had to make and in which Wilbs may or may not have subtly managed to land a blow on him. By the 89th minute, said centre half could be battered, bruised and knackered from winning all those headers against Wilbs, when he has to go up for one against Kodjia which his lack of energy prevents him from winning. Kodjia scores a goal and finishes the game with 1 attempted header, 1 won and 1 goal to show for it. Wilbs meanwhile has made 100+ and won 0. Has he contributed nothing to the game?

It's a slightly contrived example, perhaps, but it's not 100% lacking in truth. In order for stats to be useful, you have to be measuring the right things. If you don't measure all the right things you don't get a complete picture.

I think this is the thing - defenders will be knackered but so is Wilbs.

That's why there is frustration at not bringing on a fresh striker to have a go.

[Bs4Red]

You're telling me that defenders jumping for headers will get knackered? Wilbs doesn't get off the ground to put any pressure on the centre half. As a centre half myself if a player of Wilbs mould was up against you, you'd be rubbing your hands together. 

Connelly and Morrison bullied him last night. He spent more time on his ass than stood up and I'm sorry but he may have an impact for 30 mins but over 90 minutes my patience with him has gone. "Defensive duties" is a reason he gets a game, anyone who is a striker and is in the team because he can defend screams out to me that he isn't that good as a striker. 

He comes in for a lot of stick because he deserves it. The odd goal or few flick ons won't change my mind. He has had one good game this year and that was Forest in which he still wasn't outstanding.

[downendcity]

Has this become a debate about the validity of statistics?

Perhaps other posters can share their views on this issue to help us arrive at the definitive answer.

 

 

 

40% of OTIB posters think this has become a debate about the validity of statistics,  60% don't. The other 5% spend all their time trying to prove that statistics can be manipulated any way you want.

[Alessandro]

40% of OTIB posters think this has become a debate about the validity of statistics,  60% don't. The other 5% spend all their time trying to prove that statistics can be manipulated any way you want.

You heard what happened to the statistician who tried to cross a river that had an average depth of 1 meter? He drowned. 

[Drew Peacock]

This is why I did the stats, would your opinion change if you knew he:

Won 10 out of 13 long ball challenges in the second half.

Resulting in in 6 completed lay off's flick on's and possession for City.

R.E after 75 mins, he won more headers as the game went on actually, including the flick on to Kodjia towards the end. 

Anyway, i'm not Wilbs son or favourite fan or secret lover or whatever, just looking from another angle

Unfortunately you have provided some facts to counter people's prejudices.  We just don't like that sort of thing on otib.