Negan Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 I know none of this counts for anything as the games have been played and results are final.... but lets say we had a bit of luck in those games where we had none and cruelly had the game taken from us.... where would we be now? well cotterill would still most be manager put it that way (as you'll see). This is how it would look.... bare in mind this is all just hypothetical and based purely on us having that little bit of luck and getting from the games what we actually deserved. Leeds (H) A game we should never have drawn but did +2 Preston (A) if you were there we dominated all game. Never felt so robbed +2 Ipswich (A) Again leading and let in a late goal... if only we could hang on +2 MK Dons (H) REALLY late goal, see above +2 QPR (H) think it was their first proper attempt and they score, after watching us dominate all game, again we draw +2 Charlton (H) Nothing needs to be said about this un +2 Reading (a) Kodjia not offside and again not clinical enough when we should have been +1 Leeds (A) again so unlucky, leeds have 1 chance and win it, we deserved something +1 Birmingham (H) Tomlin clear penalty and a game we dominated +2 So that's 15 points we should have had and had lady luck shined on us or we got what we actually deserved things would look oh so different. We would now be sitting 10th on 43 points. I know you look at that list above and think either wow we've been robbed a few times or think, nope we got what we deserved for not being better, but I genuinely believe if we got things right in the summer and just had that tiny smidge of luck we've been missing all season then we would be top half. So if Johnson keeps us up and has a successfully pre season transfer and results wise then we could be in for a great season next year. One we can be proud of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samo II Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 I agree; we could have been a good clear distance off were the margin calls and spins of the ball on our side. Personally, the home game to Charlton was the worst of the lot; missing a penalty to go two up against a team who were never likely to score twice, then losing the lead - I think three points that day would have taken us out of the zone by a point or two as well, but it wasn't to be. But that very much is football in a nutshell; they say you make your own luck, and while I think that isn't quite true (certainly considering some of the referees I've seen...) when you're doing well, you don't need tend to notice the calls that go against you so much, while in our current position we do. The 'Tale of Two Penalties' that Tomlin 'starred' in the last couple of games stands in testimony to that; having been denied what would of been a match winning spot kick against Brum, he then gets a slightly more marginal call against Charlton and it wins us the points. Not only does it feel like validation of that claim "luck balances itself out" but also like a kind of victory against our stinking bad fortune for once. And the fact Bobby Reid looked to have a stonewall penalty not given after, which we've all barely mentioned, just goes to show that when you're getting what you need, the ones you miss are less important or noticeable. I'm just hoping that all the crappy luck you mention us having up till now swings back round, and we get all those half-chances sneaking in, and those borderline decisions going our way till May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC_Dan Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 I know I keep harping on about this guy, and it is just one guy and his statistical model, but if you look at the latest graphs here: http://experimental361.com/2016/02/08/scatter-graphics-championship-6-feb-2016/ particularly the last one, it shows that we're far from the worst team in the division. We're far from the best too, obviously, but we're in a mid-table cluster with the likes of Wolves, Brentford etc. It's the fine margins that have us where we are and whilst that cannot and should not be put down entirely to luck it means we don't need major changes to compete at this level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo88 Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 It's a good summary of the extra points we could have easily obtained, but I don't blame Lady Luck for our failure to get them. Teams can be unlucky in the odd match, but not for months on end. The reason City dropped those points was due to poor finishing, poor defending and possibly Cotts stubbornness in refusing to change the formation and make substitutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipdawg Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 Shoulda woulda coulda. I'm sure every set of fans have a list of games they should have got more from this season but didn't. Middlesborough fans probably felt they had enough chances to beat us at their place, for example, and they lost. I do think we've had more than our fair share of bad luck and bad decisions this season, but in general I think we are where we are because performances have been poor when its really counted (Rotherham away, for example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 25 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said: I know I keep harping on about this guy, and it is just one guy and his statistical model, but if you look at the latest graphs here: http://experimental361.com/2016/02/08/scatter-graphics-championship-6-feb-2016/ particularly the last one, it shows that we're far from the worst team in the division. We're far from the best too, obviously, but we're in a mid-table cluster with the likes of Wolves, Brentford etc. It's the fine margins that have us where we are and whilst that cannot and should not be put down entirely to luck it means we don't need major changes to compete at this level. I really like this guy's stuff, been following him this season. Refreshing to see someone not obsessed with the "EPL", and his graphics make it really easy to see where we are strong and where we are weak. The recent batch certainly shows that our defence isn't actually that bad. It's the same as the recent form table that someone posted on another thread...atm we're doing ok. Edit: It also shows what we all know - we can't convert our chances. We're second worst in "Attacking Effectiveness". This means that we need more shots to score a goal than almost all the other teams. Either we're making lots of really awful chances or we simply can't finish and need a striker. I think the consensus on that is pretty clear...someone phone Fulham. One thing I would like him to do however is do some graphics over a 6 game run. Currently I think he bases his numbers on the past 30 league games...this means that we've only recently begun to not consider our dynamite season in League 1. I think that looking at just 6 games would give you a better idea of how a team are performing right now, in this instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 No point in crying over spilt milk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snufflelufagus Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 Added that v the games we've won. Boro away very lucky to win -1 Boro at home (Kika missed from 6 yards when easier to score) - 2 Charlton away (slightly lucky pen both awarded and really Henderson should have saved it) - 2 Huddersfield away (they missed some sitters if were honest) -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 43 minutes ago, Just Brett said: I know none of this counts for anything as the games have been played and results are final.... but lets say we had a bit of luck in those games where we had none and cruelly had the game taken from us.... where would we be now? well cotterill would still most be manager put it that way (as you'll see). This is how it would look.... bare in mind this is all just hypothetical and based purely on us having that little bit of luck and getting from the games what we actually deserved. Leeds (H) A game we should never have drawn but did +2 Preston (A) if you were there we dominated all game. Never felt so robbed +2 Ipswich (A) Again leading and let in a late goal... if only we could hang on +2 MK Dons (H) REALLY late goal, see above +2 QPR (H) think it was their first proper attempt and they score, after watching us dominate all game, again we draw +2 Charlton (H) Nothing needs to be said about this un +2 Reading (a) Kodjia not offside and again not clinical enough when we should have been +1 Leeds (A) again so unlucky, leeds have 1 chance and win it, we deserved something +1 Birmingham (H) Tomlin clear penalty and a game we dominated +2 So that's 15 points we should have had and had lady luck shined on us or we got what we actually deserved things would look oh so different. We would now be sitting 10th on 43 points. I know you look at that list above and think either wow we've been robbed a few times or think, nope we got what we deserved for not being better, but I genuinely believe if we got things right in the summer and just had that tiny smidge of luck we've been missing all season then we would be top half. So if Johnson keeps us up and has a successfully pre season transfer and results wise then we could be in for a great season next year. One we can be proud of I was thinking along the same lines recently, points dropped in games we should have had more. As has been said, there are games we have got points when perhaps we didn't deserve them but this season we have thrown so much away. Apart from the points we could have gained there is always the confidence factor to add in if you are successful as happened last season, so perhaps we could have been even higher than 10th. Its all hypothetical I know but I don't think we are as bad as the table suggests and for the sake of a bit more clinical finishing, and a bit less sitting back inviting teams on late in games, things could be so different this season. Cotts was in charge of all this and the buck stopped with him. Lets back LJ to do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reformed_red Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 How we did not beat Cardiff away also remains a mystery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 Again, the Experimental 3-6-1 guy does graphics like the one below. Here he looks at each game and grades the 'quality' of the shots taken and plots them on a graph. He then translates this into a number that estimates how many goals each team 'deserved' to score during the match. This is the graph from the Birmingham game - you can see that he reckoned we 'deserved' 1.2 goals whilst Brum would have been very lucky to get even 1. Clearly, on his reckoning, this was an opportunity missed. STATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Brent Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 9 minutes ago, reformed_red said: How we did not beat Cardiff away also remains a mystery They also missed a very very good chance to score, and win that game, mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 45 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: I really like this guy's stuff, been following him this season. Refreshing to see someone not obsessed with the "EPL", and his graphics make it really easy to see where we are strong and where we are weak. The recent batch certainly shows that our defence isn't actually that bad. It's the same as the recent form table that someone posted on another thread...atm we're doing ok. Edit: It also shows what we all know - we can't convert our chances. We're second worst in "Attacking Effectiveness". This means that we need more shots to score a goal than almost all the other teams. Either we're making lots of really awful chances or we simply can't finish and need a striker. I think the consensus on that is pretty clear...someone phone Fulham. One thing I would like him to do however is do some graphics over a 6 game run. Currently I think he bases his numbers on the past 30 league games...this means that we've only recently begun to not consider our dynamite season in League 1. I think that looking at just 6 games would give you a better idea of how a team are performing right now, in this instant. Agreed. The key point is that we are not converting our chances, but then if you look at our scoring table for the season it's easy to see where the fault lies: Kodjia 9 (from 29 starts) Wilbraham 5 (from 20) Agard 1 (from 6 starts, plus one goal scored as sub) Freeman 1 (from 26) Bryan 1 (from 17) Smith 0 (from 28) Pack 0 (from 29) Reid 0 (from 7) Two goals from Freeman, Bryan, Smith, Pack and Reid is frankly pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 1 hour ago, BCFC_Dan said: I know I keep harping on about this guy, and it is just one guy and his statistical model, but if you look at the latest graphs here: http://experimental361.com/2016/02/08/scatter-graphics-championship-6-feb-2016/ particularly the last one, it shows that we're far from the worst team in the division. We're far from the best too, obviously, but we're in a mid-table cluster with the likes of Wolves, Brentford etc. It's the fine margins that have us where we are and whilst that cannot and should not be put down entirely to luck it means we don't need major changes to compete at this level. It's always the fine margins in professional sport , more so the higher up you go . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC_Dan Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, Major Isewater said: It's always the fine margins in professional sport , more so the higher up you go . Sure, but look at Charlton on that graph: they're hopeless and probably have more points than they deserve. Fulham and MK Dons also look to be doing better than their form merits. At the end of the day all that matters is points and we don't have enough but I'd rather be us than Charlton right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshtonGreat Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 If we snatched a draw against Leeds at home in 'a game we should never have drawn', that should be a -1 and not a +2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 "If" - The longest word in the dictionary...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid in the Riot Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 Where could we be? Probably still in the relegation zone if The Stubborn One was still here. Let's move on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshtonGreat Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 1 minute ago, Kid in the Riot said: Where could we be? Probably still in the relegation zone if The Stubborn One was still here. Let's move on... Oh, he was only the guy who gave us the title and the JPT trophy last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid in the Riot Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 Just now, AshtonGreat said: Oh, he was only the guy who gave us the title and the JPT trophy last season. That's the badger, and was swiftly taking us back to L1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamC Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 1 hour ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said: Agreed. The key point is that we are not converting our chances, but then if you look at our scoring table for the season it's easy to see where the fault lies: Kodjia 9 (from 29 starts) Wilbraham 5 (from 20) Agard 1 (from 6 starts, plus one goal scored as sub) Freeman 1 (from 26) Bryan 1 (from 17) Smith 0 (from 28) Pack 0 (from 29) Reid 0 (from 7) Two goals from Freeman, Bryan, Smith, Pack and Reid is frankly pathetic. Wilbraham has 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Bard Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said: I really like this guy's stuff, been following him this season. Refreshing to see someone not obsessed with the "EPL", and his graphics make it really easy to see where we are strong and where we are weak. The recent batch certainly shows that our defence isn't actually that bad. It's the same as the recent form table that someone posted on another thread...atm we're doing ok. Edit: It also shows what we all know - we can't convert our chances. We're second worst in "Attacking Effectiveness". This means that we need more shots to score a goal than almost all the other teams. Either we're making lots of really awful chances or we simply can't finish and need a striker. I think the consensus on that is pretty clear...someone phone Fulham. One thing I would like him to do however is do some graphics over a 6 game run. Currently I think he bases his numbers on the past 30 league games...this means that we've only recently begun to not consider our dynamite season in League 1. I think that looking at just 6 games would give you a better idea of how a team are performing right now, in this instant. funnily enough I just commented on our creative department which leads neatly onto attacking effectiveness. Obsessing about a new striker is really missing the point I feel. Whoever is up front is dependent on the creation of chances. Certain players unwillingness to either cross or deliver an early ball forward is what is hampering us at present. It will be interesting to see where Gladwin gets a place in the side if he's fit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo88 Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said: Again, the Experimental 3-6-1 guy does graphics like the one below. Here he looks at each game and grades the 'quality' of the shots taken and plots them on a graph. He then translates this into a number that estimates how many goals each team 'deserved' to score during the match. This is the graph from the Birmingham game - you can see that he reckoned we 'deserved' 1.2 goals whilst Brum would have been very lucky to get even 1. Clearly, on his reckoning, this was an opportunity missed. STATS. I think this Experimental geezer should start living in the real world. In any walk of life, it's what happens that counts, not what somebody thinks you deserve. You can't rewrite history based on one persons viewpoint. I always used to think that I deserved bigger pay rises than I received, and more promotions at work, but it didn't change anything. Based on the Experimental principle, I should now be the chairman of a multinational company earning mega bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC_Dan Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 18 minutes ago, pongo88 said: I think this Experimental geezer should start living in the real world. In any walk of life, it's what happens that counts, not what somebody thinks you deserve. You can't rewrite history based on one persons viewpoint. I always used to think that I deserved bigger pay rises than I received, and more promotions at work, but it didn't change anything. Based on the Experimental principle, I should now be the chairman of a multinational company earning mega bucks. Did you have the stats to back your views up? If you did, and you presented them correctly, then you'd probably have got the promotions. Like I said in my first post it is just a model and there will be flaws and outliers but he hasn't just pulled the figures out of his backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Cyril Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 20 minutes ago, pongo88 said: .... Based on the Experimental principle, I should now be the chairman of a multinational company earning mega bucks. Never mind that, I can pm you a load of pictures of the stunning beauty that I never married. Or met. Saying that, I might be breaching my banning order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 At the end of the day, if you can identify that many games where we should have won and didn't, you have to conclude that it's a lack of ability, rather than luck, that has cost us. Luck is random; this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashton_fan Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 I think those stats just show that our attack is too quiet. In this scenario the opposition push forward more as they don't think you're going to score and pressurise the defence. Cotts plan was to get a star striker like Andre Gray, if he'd succeeded then his wing-back system would probably have had a good chance of working. Once he'd failed to recruit though and we'd lost a few games he should have re-assessed his tactics, if he had then I'm sure he'd still be here now, the last few games have showed the players are good enough for mid-table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loderingo Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 I agree that we should have had more points but a lot was self inflicted. Against Charlton, for example, if he had scored the penalty we would have won the game. Equally if he had held possession and stuck it in the corner during injury time, we would have held on for a 1-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Dawe Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 34 minutes ago, Mad Cyril said: Never mind that, I can pm you a load of pictures of the stunning beauty that I never married. Or met. Saying that, I might be breaching my banning order. You'd think the stewards would've spotted you by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Dawe Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 2 hours ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said: Agreed. The key point is that we are not converting our chances, but then if you look at our scoring table for the season it's easy to see where the fault lies: Kodjia 9 (from 29 starts) Wilbraham 5 (from 20) Agard 1 (from 6 starts, plus one goal scored as sub) Freeman 1 (from 26) Bryan 1 (from 17) Smith 0 (from 28) Pack 0 (from 29) Reid 0 (from 7) Two goals from Freeman, Bryan, Smith, Pack and Reid is frankly pathetic. Our shooting is weak and pathetic, apologetic almost. Either that, or it sails over the bar. I don't suppose there is a graph or a stat for this but we seem to lack conviction when shooting, compared to most opposition. One thing JET could do better than anyone was hit the bloody thing, and hit it hard. His goal at home to Port Vale was thunderous. Have we scored a goal from outside the box yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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