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12 Games Left - Where Will We Finish


samo II

12 Games Left - Where Will We Finish  

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After hearing Flint say on Radio Bristol that the team want to start looking up not down when it comes to the table, and with us building and now maintaining an 8 point gap to the drop zone this week, despite being roundly thrashed by a team in the playoffs, this got me thinking about where we might end up this year.

Looking at the short and longer term form tables, we are a top half team, and although the nature of this league can mean that counts for little, I was interested in where people thought we might end up.

I've popped in the aforementioned form tables below too, if people were interested.

 

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10 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

13th- 18th. I think once we`re safe we might ease off a bit and have got a lot of matches with some tough games in April where I can`t see too many points. I also think we`ll see more of the youngsters getting game time once the pressure`s off.

Feel similar.

What interested me when looking at the form tables is that we only have to play four of of the current top ten over the last ten (Huddersfield, Cardiff, Hull and Sheff Weds), and only one of those is away (Hull).

When you also consider we've home games against two of the bottom three (Bolton and Rotherham), it just had me wondering about how we might end up doing, which is a nice thing to think about after spending the majority of the season simply praying to get out of the drop zone.

I said right back at the start of the season that finishing outside the relegation zone on goal difference would be considered a success in my eyes, as we needed to open the new stands in the Championship, not League One, and while I'm pretty confident we can do that now, I certainly think it would be positive for our prospects next year were we to finish closer to 13th than 21st.

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I said a few weeks back that I'd be happy with 18th. I'll stick with that, but on our current form and that of those in and around us, that could well be improved on. 

We need to see these last 12 matches as a real opportunity to continue this run to demonstrate what this team and club is capable of in this league. 

A a strong final third of the season that sees us climb the table will help no end in our summer recruitment. 

Perhaps we'd even learn the value of momentum going into a summer break this time around!

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I think the signs were always there that we had more than enough to not go down. Yes, we were always susceptible to a thrashing (and that appears to not have changed) but in between those were brilliant performances in which we didn't always get what we deserved.  

As for where we'll finish, I'm going to say 18th which would represent a decent first season back, especially given the start we had which I'd suggest was as much down to bad luck as it was the perceived formational deficiencies. 

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5 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

I think the signs were always there that we had more than enough to not go down. Yes, we were always susceptible to a thrashing (and that appears to not have changed) but in between those were brilliant performances in which we didn't always get what we deserved.  

As for where we'll finish, I'm going to say 18th which would represent a decent first season back, especially given the start we had which I'd suggest was as much down to bad luck as it was the perceived formational deficiencies. 

Everyone in this league with the possible exception of the top three is though. Just look at Brighton last weekend v what they did to us.

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I honestly think we will finish between 13th & 16th based on the games we have remaining. Very much depends on injuries but based on current form no reason not to achieve those positions. Very much agree with other posts, we need to take momentum into the close season and bring in players who see us as a club that are on the up and not relegation candidates. With the ground completed by next season and us having greater wage budget I hope it will be an exciting close season which will see us as a force in this league next season with hopefully 20k season ticket holders. This season has been a challenge and we have come through it so glass half full we can push on to greater things.

Sorry to see SC go but think the board got this one right!

 

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Well on current form it is hard to say. You have to consider other teams and where they are now and where they will finish. 12 games left. I'll say 5 wins 3 draws 4 losses. That's 17 points. Puts us at 55. Most teams above us are within 4 wins of that in the same amount of matches. Even on less spectacular form than us, it's very obtainable for most. So at best, I think we finish 3 or 4 spots higher. 15th or 16th would be a good bet. As most though, with the way the season has gone, I'll take anything above 22nd. More likely we finish within a spot or two from where we are now. 

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Mad to think we are only 6 points (2 wins) off mid table. Considering where we were, that is a remarkable turn around. It may be a tough run in but one I'm sure we can compete in. Would actually be a very successful first season back in the championship if we were to come close to mid table. Just imagine if we had got more points from the first 26 games. All in hid sight I suppose but we are definately on the turn from the terrible start to the season

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Last year the team in 21st were Rotherham, who had 46 points. But they 'actually' got 49 points, due to having 3 taken away as punishment for fielding an illegible player.  

That considered; Brighton (!!!) had the lowest points total outside the drop zone with 47, Millwall having only got 41 in finishing in 22nd.  This season, barring major injuries, I think we can surpass 47 points quite easily (3 wins and a draw, or 2 wins and 3 draws).

That said; I do also think that the third bottom team this campaign may very well get more than 41 points, with Bolton only narrowly losing most of their games, and Rotherham having given themselves a true chance with their change of manager.  Our home games to both the aforementioned will be absolutely crucial, as wins or even draws in those could not only keep us above the fray, but seriously dent any hopes they have of escaping.

What is also interesting is how most of our 9 victories have come against teams currently in middle table or higher.  I've listed them below;

Middlesborough (x2) - 3rd
Ipswich - 9th
Wolves (still to play again - A) - 13th
Nottm Forest (x2) - 15th
Huddersfield (still to play again - H) - 16th
MK Dons - 21st
Charlton - 24th

7 out of 9 were against teams currently higher than us.  While I realise that was always likely baring in mind where we've been most of the season, it should also give us hope of gaining some ground, as it shows that we don't only beat teams in and around us, but can compete with sides placed through the league.

It's also worth keeping in mind that even just maintaining the same form we've had over the last 10 games (5 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) would land us on 53 points; a total that has only been reached by a relegated team once in the last 10 seasons (Peterborough in 12-13, who went down with 54).  And that is taking into account we could lose the other two matched outside that.

I'm quietly confident that we could get enough points to finish comfortably mid table, around 13th-15th, and would consider a higher finish than that more than excellent.  I think March will tell us a lot, as we play only four times while those around us with games in hand get the majority of those out the way (Blackburn play 6 times next month); keep this decent run going, and who knows what could happen?

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The speculation is what will make the run in exciting - the looking back as much as the looking forward.

We'll also get the 'if only' speculation that if 'we'd done this or that we'd be in the play-offs'. A somewhat pointless exercise.

For me, as other posters have indicated, we need to give a good showing of ourselves now with a view to spiking interest in the potential signings we can make over the summer.

The form simply has to continue so that we look good amongst our peers. Where that would put us in the standings? I think it has to be top half of the table (that would demonstrate  quite a dramatic turnaround considering where we were).

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It depends on one thing, if we can keep all our key players fit, the loss of JK or AF would really have me worried, it's also imperative we have Smith back ASAP, as much as Bobby does give us a different option, against better teams he's been the key and easily the player of the season for me so far.

As I said in another thread, we must keep Pemberton his experience is key and has been a huge factor in our change of form.

Id take anything above the relegation places and say that considering the mess of a season we've had that survival would be a HUGE achievement.

 

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