KevinWellRed Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Afternoon gents, Please indulge a stat geek here for just a second. Below is a picture of our points return this season vs. the number of games played. I've added a few extra bits to it that make for some very interesting reading; let me explain: The purple dashed line is an estimation of how many points we'd be looking at if we'd kept Cottrill. It's been done by eye, so this is obviously pretty inaccurate, but interesting all the same. The green dotted line is a projection of where we might be based on LJ's points return per game (62.5%) which is where things get really juicy. I've marked where Burnley, Brighton and the bottom of the play-off places (Sheff Wed) are - putting us right in the mix of it had we been playing with this form since the start of the season. Obviously you have to take all this with a pinch of salt. Factors like Tomlin's arrival and changing to four at the back (after Cottrill's departure - marked as a red dotted line) all have a part to play. Either way I think it makes for some interesting analysis. Anything anyone would like to see added to the graph? Any general improvements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lrrr Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Good stuff, nice clear graph you often see people over complicating them needlessly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC_Dan Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 It would be useful to see the predicted safety line too. It might also be interesting to see MK Dons graph as they kept their manager. Although sacking Cotterill was the right thing to do I think most teams near the bottom see an upturn in form in the second half of the season, especially newly-promoted sides who have been growing accustomed to the new level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinWellRed Posted March 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 9 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said: It would be useful to see the predicted safety line too. This is doable, but you'd need to be able to say for certain which team is getting that third relegation spot. 10 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said: It might also be interesting to see MK Dons graph as they kept their manager. I would do this if I thought that MK Dons were worth the effort; as it is, I don't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC_Dan Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 1 minute ago, KevinWellRed said: This is doable, but you'd need to be able to say for certain which team is getting that third relegation spot. I would do this if I thought that MK Dons were worth the effort; as it is, I don't! Surely you just extrapolate the form of the other teams at the bottom, find the final points for the 3rd bottom side and add 1 to it? I believe @Tomarse has it at about 47 points at the moment. I only asked about MK Dons because it provides an interesting parallel of a club in a similar situation to City (recently promoted, relatively inexperienced at this level, tries to play an expansive game) but without the managerial change. You asked for suggestions so I gave you one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinWellRed Posted March 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said: Surely you just extrapolate the form of the other teams at the bottom, find the final points for the 3rd bottom side and add 1 to it? I believe @Tomarse has it at about 47 points at the moment. Didn't think of doing it that way, will have a go later. You'd presumably have to include teams like Fulham and maybe even Brentford who are slipping. 5 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said: I only asked about MK Dons because it provides an interesting parallel of a club in a similar situation to City (recently promoted, relatively inexperienced at this level, tries to play an expansive game) but without the managerial change. You asked for suggestions so I gave you one. And I appreciate the suggestion, my aversion to is was more of a satirical dig at MK Dons as opposed to your suggestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin1988 Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 I still believe Cotterill was harshly treated since he was woefully backed in the transfer window, and for the moment at least, we've done the same thing we did when Cotts arrived, thrown money at the problem, which is working for the moment. I'm just waiting for the next cycle when the board aren't as well organised. Hopefully with Ashton here it's a way off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 ooh I love a nice graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairman Mao Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 59 minutes ago, Robin1988 said: I still believe Cotterill was harshly treated since he was woefully backed in the transfer window, and for the moment at least, we've done the same thing we did when Cotts arrived, thrown money at the problem, which is working for the moment. I'm just waiting for the next cycle when the board aren't as well organised. Hopefully with Ashton here it's a way off yet. Woefully backed? He was throwing money at strikers like confetti in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin1988 Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said: Woefully backed? He was throwing money at strikers like confetti in the summer Because the board panicked after missing out on the majority of his and Burt's targets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivorguy Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 We have no idea who SC's targets were or even if there were any ! In retrospect the entire top management were at sea. My guess is there was a falling out of opinion when we were promoted, according to the possible plan, a season too soon. But I could be totally wrong. AllI know is that MA and LJ appear far more professional - and modern - in their approach, and I for one am looking to the future with cautious optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 You admit that your a geek but why produce it? It tells us nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigAl&Toby Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Robin1988 said: I still believe Cotterill was harshly treated since he was woefully backed in the transfer window, and for the moment at least, we've done the same thing we did when Cotts arrived, thrown money at the problem, which is working for the moment. I'm just waiting for the next cycle when the board aren't as well organised. Hopefully with Ashton here it's a way off yet. Harshly treated? He had long enough to sort out his sorry mess. I'd say too long. Thank Christ he lost his mind and got the chop. Since then we've improved enormously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
View from the Dolman Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 12 minutes ago, Robbored said: You admit that your a geek but why produce it? It tells us nothing at all. Can you give us a list of permitted topics? It'd make it easier than you needing to tell us when we're wasting our time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
semblar Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 15 minutes ago, Robbored said: You admit that your a geek but why produce it? It tells us me nothing at all. Slight correction....some of us enjoy looking at this kind of thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, semblar said: some of us enjoy looking at this kind of thing That's very sad...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, semblar said: Slight correction....some of us enjoy looking at this kind of thing And I can get away with looking at graphs at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shtanley Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Robbored said: That's very sad...... Almost as sad as having a go at people for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinWellRed Posted March 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 18 minutes ago, Robbored said: You admit that your a geek but why produce it? It tells us nothing at all. It actually tells us three very clear things based off the trends: 1. We'd be in the relegation zone if Cotts were still here. 2. There has been a massive upturn in points per game since his departure/Lee's arrival. 3. Our form under Lee means we very much have the potential to challenge for promotion next year. Of course, if you'd thought about it you might have observed this from the figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 3 hours ago, KevinWellRed said: Afternoon gents, Please indulge a stat geek here for just a second. Below is a picture of our points return this season vs. the number of games played. I've added a few extra bits to it that make for some very interesting reading; let me explain: The purple dashed line is an estimation of how many points we'd be looking at if we'd kept Cottrill. It's been done by eye, so this is obviously pretty inaccurate, but interesting all the same. The green dotted line is a projection of where we might be based on LJ's points return per game (62.5%) which is where things get really juicy. I've marked where Burnley, Brighton and the bottom of the play-off places (Sheff Wed) are - putting us right in the mix of it had we been playing with this form since the start of the season. Obviously you have to take all this with a pinch of salt. Factors like Tomlin's arrival and changing to four at the back (after Cottrill's departure - marked as a red dotted line) all have a part to play. Either way I think it makes for some interesting analysis. Anything anyone would like to see added to the graph? Any general improvements? Just a quick improvement, could you add in the exact point that @Thatch35 booed? I think that's an important turning point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shtanley Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, RumRed said: Just a quick improvement, could you add in the exact point that @Thatch35 booed? I think that's an important turning point in the season. But instead of a line just have boooooooooooooooooooooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 7 minutes ago, Shtanley said: But instead of a line just have boooooooooooooooooooooooo. Now I can see why we had such an upturn in fortunes, the correlation is there for all to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFChris Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 You could also argue that the upturn in form was upon the arrival of O'Donnell, Golbourne and Tomlin. So maybe we should be thanking the corporate suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KevinWellRed Posted March 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 18 minutes ago, Shtanley said: But instead of a line just have boooooooooooooooooooooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 18 minutes ago, RumRed said: Now I can see why we had such an upturn in fortunes, the correlation is there for all to see. We've had an upturn in fortunes because City changed the manager......it really ain't complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Robbored said: We've had an upturn in fortunes because City changed the manager......it really ain't complicated. True, but as you can see from the in depth analysis changing the manager was only the catalyst for the true upturn in our fortunes, @Thatch35 booing. The amended chart shows this quite clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
View from the Dolman Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 8 minutes ago, Robbored said: We've had an upturn in fortunes because City changed the manager......it really ain't complicated. Guess Bolton didn't get the memo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 12 minutes ago, RumRed said: True, but as you can see from the in depth analysis changing the manager was only the catalyst for the true upturn in our fortunes, @Thatch35 booing. The amended chart shows this quite clearly. My point is that we don't need "in depth analysis" to know why we've had an upturn in fortunes. It ain't rocket science ffs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Nose Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 23 minutes ago, Robbored said: We've had an upturn in fortunes because City changed the manager......it really ain't complicated. You're such a dick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlanta_Red Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 6 minutes ago, Robbored said: My point is that we don't need "in depth analysis" to know why we've had an upturn in fortunes. It ain't rocket science ffs! It's not 'fortunes'. There's no luck about it. To see that is not rocket science either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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