The Championship -normal service

[Londoner]

I think Wigans win at Huddersfield perfectly sums up the championship and actually says a lot about us too.

Like City, Brentford Barnsley etc, a very strong start for Huddersfield and a dodgy run sees them slowly drop down....with the exception of reading, is anyone actually that suprised by the way the league looks?

We made a strong start like many, we have dipped like many, and probably in our rightful position....

[Lanterne Rouge]

Lost six from eight or something like that now haven`t they? Still 6th! This league is nuts.

[One BCFC]

And as for Reading they have big Purple patches every season. Swear by November last season they were in the top 4 as well? Only to end around 15th

[BS4 on Tour...]

This chaotic, unpredictable mess of a division is the best in the world in my opinion....at the start of any season at least 15 teams are genuinely capable of getting promoted, crazy stuff!

As Jon Bon Jovi once crooned: "It's a bitch but life's a rollercoaster ride, the ups and downs can make you scream sometimes, it's hard believing when the thrill is gone, but we gotta go around again, so let's hold on..."

[EnclosureSurge]

Anyway, moving on from Bon Jon Bovi (cripes), this division has long been topsy-turvy/anyone can beat anyone on their day. There is rarely a season when a team is relegated without a hope, even the bottom 3 can win big. In fairness, all divisions are like this, incl, to a lesser extent (because I take no notice of it at all, as it's far too hyped) so is the Premierlagership. I think if you look back (Stattos, please confirm) nearly every season in nearly every division has had a tone of anyone can beat anyone. There is more of a gap between divisions now than in the 80s, say, but still a team like Burton can come up and make a damned good fist of it, so the gap can't be that big. It can be no surprise that anyone beats anyone in this div, it's been this way for a long time. 

[NOTBLUE]

I'm actually enjoying the way anyone can beat anyone else on any particular day,although it does mess up my fixed odds gamble on a weekend.

[spudski]

It's probably the most competitive League in the World. I love it.

It's small margins and a lot of luck that can make a difference.

It is mental, and I'm sure I read recently has the highest turnover of managers.

Stability is the key to progressing eventually or at least keeping in the top half imo.

In the same breath...I don't think the final Championship table will look anything like it does right now in terms of positions.

[ExiledAjax]

12 hours ago, Londoner said:

We made a strong start like many, we have dipped like many, and probably in our rightful position....

And like many we will go on another run of 5 or 6 matches with positive results. 

I'm always reminded of Brentford's record last year. Started by getting 8 points from the first 30 available. Then won 4 on the trot. Then went on a run of alternating draws and wins before losing 10 out of their next 13 games. They then won 7 of the final 8 games of the season. They finished 9th with W19 D8 L19 GD+5. Rollercoaster.

I wouldn't be surprised to write a very similar summary of our season come May 2017.

[BCFC_Dan]

There are a couple of teams that look a lot stronger than the rest of the division: Brighton and Newcastle. There is one team that looks a lot weaker than the rest: Rotherham.

I'd expect those teams to be at the top and bottom respectively come the end of the season. Literally everything else is up for grabs. If we can secure safety early in the new year and play some reasonable football then we'll have had a decent season.

[Wanderingred]

Only seven points separate 10th from 23rd. Literally anybody bar Newcastle and Brighton could be dragged into a relegation battle after a bad run, especially as the teams near the bottom seem to be consistantly picking up points. That unfortunately includes us, and im sure there will be times this season where we will be looking over our shoulders with just a little concern (I also think we'll be looking upwards at times too!).

My one prediction this season is that there will be a shock relegation to league 1... Someone we never would have imagined dropping. QPR, Wolves, Ipswich, Forest, Brentford... All look vunerable.

[Nogbad the Bad]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

And like many we will go on another run of 5 or 6 matches with positive results. 

I'm always reminded of Brentford's record last year. Started by getting 8 points from the first 30 available. Then won 4 on the trot. Then went on a run of alternating draws and wins before losing 10 out of their next 13 games. They then won 7 of the final 8 games of the season. They finished 9th with W19 D8 L19 GD+5. Rollercoaster.

I wouldn't be surprised to write a very similar summary of our season come May 2017.

Quite possible, and matching Brentford's total last season would see us finishing on 65 points, 13 more than the 52 accumulated by City (and interestingly Reading) last season.

It would also almost certainly see a top 10 finish which would be seen as real progress.

If you go on sustained bad runs though you're depending on also having very good ones for a mid table finish and, although it clearly can be done, a run of such positive results is always going to be unlikely for all but the best teams in the division.

it appears Brentford's final run of 7 out of 8 wins made all the difference to their season, if they'd carried on with their previous results rather than suddenly hitting extraordinary automatic promotion form who knows where they'd have ended up.

What we don't know about this City team yet is whether they are capable of emerging from a poor run to go on a strong sequence to collect alot of points fairly quickly.

We can't put too much faith in that likelihood because we know confidence can be floored by a run of defeats, and the pressure then increases for every result, making the complete turnaround experienced by Brentford an unusual and notable event.

[Jack Dawe]

3 hours ago, BCFC_Dan said:

There are a couple of teams that look a lot stronger than the rest of the division: Brighton and Newcastle. There is one team that looks a lot weaker than the rest: Rotherham.

 

Hmmm, not like you to offer wildly subjective posts like this, Dan. You got any stats to back up your thoughts there on this?

[BCFC_Dan]

3 minutes ago, Jack Dawe said:

Hmmm, not like you to offer wildly subjective posts like this, Dan. You got any stats to back up your thoughts there on this?

Not sure what you're angling for me to post here, but aside from the obvious stats provided by the league table there are these from www.experimental361.com 

They do suggest that Sheffield Wednesday and Derby might warrant inclusion amongst the top sides too, but the league table says differently.

[ExiledAjax]

@BCFC_Dan I love Experimental's stuff but one criticism of it is that because it takes account of (iirc) the past 30 or so league matches it is quite slow to react to a sudden and dramatic change in form.  I think he acknowledges this himself as it goes hand in hand with the other problem - that his stuff only becomes useful after a dozen or so games of a new season.

Still, I think that it does particularly show that we can get things right if we play the right way - I'm not sure what that right way is but i'll give my opinions here.  The only games I've seen this season have been Wigan, QPR and the Fulham League Cup game live, and Cardiff and Brighton on TV.  From those few games I believe our main issues are in midfield. To me it looks like there are

1. problems with communication; 
2. a lack of ability to get dangerous balls into the box - be that from wide or through the middle; and
3. a tendency to allow the opposition to close us down coupled with us not closing them down.

[BCFC_Dan]

7 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

@BCFC_Dan I love Experimental's stuff but one criticism of it is that because it takes account of (iirc) the past 30 or so league matches it is quite slow to react to a sudden and dramatic change in form.  I think he acknowledges this himself as it goes hand in hand with the other problem - that his stuff only becomes useful after a dozen or so games of a new season.

Still, I think that it does particularly show that we can get things right if we play the right way - I'm not sure what that right way is but i'll give my opinions here.  The only games I've seen this season have been Wigan, QPR and the Fulham League Cup game live, and Cardiff and Brighton on TV.  From those few games I believe our main issues are in midfield. To me it looks like there are

1. problems with communication; 
2. a lack of ability to get dangerous balls into the box - be that from wide or through the middle; and
3. a tendency to allow the opposition to close us down coupled with us not closing them down.

Yup. It's definitely not a 100% accurate model of everything. I mentioned elsewhere that the fact that Birmingham and Reading have sustained their success despite scoring poorly according to the model probably suggests there's something there that it can't capture.

That said, although it may dampen down any dramatic changes in form, City definitely dropped down in his rankings a few weeks back and have since rebounded, so it's not simply the case that we're riding a wave of good performances early in the season. We're definitely a decent side.

My particular use of his charts on this thread was to back up my assertion that only Brighton and Newcastle are particularly good and only Rotherham particularly bad this season. On this point I think the league table agrees with the model.

The issues you identify are interesting and probably correct, though the second is probably symptomatic of other failings rather than a cause in itself. Personally I think a bit more experience and the addition of a more complete striker would take the squad to the next level and make them realistic top 6 challengers. A couple of good transfer windows and they'll be well placed to challenge next year.

[Son of Fred]

My pre-season guesstimate of finishing 15th will I think be close to the mark -a couple of astute signings/loans may push us to mid table.....

[ExiledAjax]

43 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said:

Yup. It's definitely not a 100% accurate model of everything. I mentioned elsewhere that the fact that Birmingham and Reading have sustained their success despite scoring poorly according to the model probably suggests there's something there that it can't capture.

That said, although it may dampen down any dramatic changes in form, City definitely dropped down in his rankings a few weeks back and have since rebounded, so it's not simply the case that we're riding a wave of good performances early in the season. We're definitely a decent side.

My particular use of his charts on this thread was to back up my assertion that only Brighton and Newcastle are particularly good and only Rotherham particularly bad this season. On this point I think the league table agrees with the model.

The issues you identify are interesting and probably correct, though the second is probably symptomatic of other failings rather than a cause in itself. Personally I think a bit more experience and the addition of a more complete striker would take the squad to the next level and make them realistic top 6 challengers. A couple of good transfer windows and they'll be well placed to challenge next year.

You're right about Brighton, Newcastle and Rotherham, and that the chart backs it up.  We're a decent side compared to the all the other decent sides in this division, of which there are roughly 20.  That means we'll mostly have close games decided by luck or late goals or refereeing crap.  The games like Villa and Fulham, and hopefully Brighton will happen, but will be unusual.  We'll go up and down and finish in an entirely unremarkable 8th-12th. I'll be fine with that.

Also nice analysis of my analysis.

[Jack Dawe]

6 hours ago, BCFC_Dan said:

Not sure what you're angling for me to post here, but aside from the obvious stats provided by the league table there are these from www.experimental361.com 

They do suggest that Sheffield Wednesday and Derby might warrant inclusion amongst the top sides too, but the league table says differently.

It was a joke, Dan    I had in mind the bog-standard, regular league table, but that looks interesting, what you've knocked up there. I prefer your one, we're still sixth  .....  

 

[Vespa Red]

7 hours ago, BCFC_Dan said:

Not sure what you're angling for me to post here, but aside from the obvious stats provided by the league table there are these from www.experimental361.com 

They do suggest that Sheffield Wednesday and Derby might warrant inclusion amongst the top sides too, but the league table says differently.

I've heard of Venn diagrams, but I'd never seen a Sperm diagram before this evening....

[OldlandReddies]

Honestly think that with the run of games we have in December and with most being at home we can get back on track and make a big push back up the league. It wouldbe perfect timing entering the new year and new transfer window where Lee can strengthen where needed and push on again. COYR's !!