The Run-In 2016/17

[mattjtsmith]

So it's a sleepy sunday, and we had this going a couple years back for promotion season, seems that with the tight finish I thought a few people might appreciate it again. So here it is....the run-in for Championship survival! I also appreciate that at this point other teams could even drop in, but I'll add them when / if they do. A lot of work as it is!

 

Current Survival Table -

16. Ipswich - 45 (37)

17. Birmingham - 44 (37)

18. Burton - 41 (37)

19. Nottingham Forest - 40 (37)

20. Wolverhampton - 39 (35)

21. Bristol City - 38 (37) gd -7

-------------------------------------------

22. Blackburn - 38 (36) gd - 11

23. Wigan Athletic - 34 (37)

24. Rotherham - 17 (37)

 

Potential Points Score - 

16. Ipswich - 72

17. Birmingham - 71

18. Burton - 68

19. Nottingham Forest - 67

20. Wolverhampton - 72

21. Bristol City - 65

-------------------------------------------

22. Blackburn - 68

23. Wigan Athletic - 61

24. Rotherham - 44

 

Therefore as it stands ; 

(I'll add more realistic points goals once we get closer. Doesn't seem much point now)

 

Fixtures - 

Thursday 14th March - Brentford vs Wolves; Fulham vs Blackburn

Friday 17th March - City vs Huddersfield

Saturday 18th March - Blackburn vs PNE; Forest vs Derby; Birmingham vs Newcastle; Burton vs Brentford; Cardiff vs Ipswich; Fulham vs Wolves; QPR vs Rotherham; Wigan vs Villa

Saturday 1st April - Brentford vs City; Brighton vs Blackburn; Huddersfield vs Burton; Ipswich vs Birmingham; Newcastle vs Wigan; PNE vs Forest; Rotherham vs Fulham; Wolves vs Cardiff

Tuesday 4th April - Brighton vs Birmingham; Ipswich vs Wigan; PNE vs City; Rotherham vs Sheff Weds; Wolves vs Forest; Reading vs Blackburn

Wednesday 5th April - Newcastle vs Burton

Saturday 8th April - Birmingham vs Derby; Blackburn vs Barnsley; City vs Wolves; Burton vs Villa; Fulham vs Ipswich; Forest vs Huddersfield; Wigan vs Rotherham

Thursday 13th April - Wigan vs Barnsley

Friday 14th April - City vs QPR; Forest vs Blackburn; Rotherham vs Birmingham; Wolves vs Brighton; Burton vs Ipswich 

Monday 17th April - Birmingham vs Burton; Blackburn vs City; Brighton vs Wigan; Cardiff vs Forest; Ipswich vs Newcastle; Leeds vs Wolves; Reading vs Rotherham

Saturday 22nd April - City vs Barnsley; Burton vs Leeds; Forest vs Reading; Rotherham vs Ipswich; Wigan vs Cardiff; Wolves vs Blackburn

Sunday 23rd April - Villa vs Birmingham

Tuesday 25th April - Wolves vs Huddersfield

Saturday 29th April - Barnsley vs Burton; Birmingham vs Huddersfield; Blackburn vs Villa; Brighton vs City; Derby vs Wolves; Ipswich vs Sheff Weds; PNE vs Rotherham; QPR vs Forest; Reading vs Wigan

Sunday 7th May - Brentford vs Blackburn; City vs Birmingham; Burton vs Reading; Forest vs Ipswich; Rotherham vs Derby; Wigan vs Leeds; Wolves vs PNE

 

 

"Real Championship Table" - 

Based over 5 years on the points the points required; 

Points needed to be Champions Average = 90 points

Promotion Average = 85.4 points

Play Off Average = 71.8 points

Relegation Survival Average = 44.8points

 

102 - Champions 2014

101 - 

100 - 

99 - 

98 - 

97 - 

96 - 

95 - 

94 - 

93 - Promotion 2014, Champions 2016

92 -

91 - 

90 - Champions 2015

89 - Champions 2012, Promotion 2015, Promotion 2016

88 - Promotion 2012

87 - Champions 2013

86 - 

85 - 

84 - 

83 -  

82 -

81 - 

80 - 

79 - Promotion 2013

78 - Play Offs 2015

77 - Newcastle (37) GD +38; Brighton (37) GD +32

76 - 

75 - Play Offs 2012

74 - Play Offs 2016

73 -  

72 - Play Offs 2014

71 -  Huddersfield (36)

70 - 

69 - 

68 - Play Offs 2013

67 -

66 - Leeds (37)

65 -

64 - Reading (37)

63 -

62 - Sheffield Wednesday (37)

61 - 

60 - Fulham (36)

59 -

58 -

57 -

56 - Preston (37)

55 - Safety 2013

54 - Norwich (37)

53 - 

52 - Derby (37)

51 - Barnsley (37)

50 - 

49 - Safety 2016

48 - Safety 2012, Villa (37) GD -2; Cardiff (37) GD -3

47 - Brentford (36) GD +2; QPR (37) GD -9

46 - Safety 2015

45 - Ipswich (37)

44 - Safety 2014, Birmingham (37)

43 - 

42 - 

41 - Burton (37)

40 - Forest (37)

39 - Wolves (35)

38 - City (37) GD -7; Blackburn (36) GD -11

37 -

36 -

35 -

34 - WIgan (37)

 

 

17 - Rotherham (37)

 

[mattjtsmith]

If I can get a pin then I'll keep it updated to the end as before. If anyone has any additions it's always appreciated

[1960maaan]

8 minutes ago, mattjtsmith said:

If I can get a pin then I'll keep it updated to the end as before. If anyone has any additions it's always appreciated

You really need a hobby   Good work BTW 

[mattjtsmith]

29 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

You really need a hobby   Good work BTW 

I know....Stat obsessive  but glad it's appreciated! 

[Tears in rain]

It's getting to the notepad prediction time of year again! Yay!! 

Went through fixtures at start of Feb for bottom 4 not expecting wolves to be dragged in so might have to update my pad soon! 

I had us staying up joint with Burton and Blackburn down with Wigan and Rotherham. 

[Ska Junkie]

The Grimsby fans have unloaded a good predictor.

Here's my biased effort.

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Newcastle 46 +49 99
2 Brighton 46 +42 98
3 Huddersfield 46 +19 95
4 Fulham 46 +29 82
5 Leeds 46 +14 81
6 Reading 46 +2 77
7 Sheff Wed 46 +14 76
8 Preston 46 +10 70
9 Aston Villa 46 +4 67
10 Brentford 46 +8 65
11 Norwich 46 +6 64
12 Derby 46 +3 63
13 Barnsley 46 +0 63
14 QPR 46 -8 61
15 Cardiff 46 -2 60
16 Ipswich 46 -11 56
17 Nott'm Forest 46 -12 50
18 Bristol City 46 -11 49
19 Birmingham 46 -25 47
20 Burton Albion 46 -17 46
21 Wolverhampton 46 -16 43
22 Blackburn 46 -19 42
23 Wigan 46 -18 39
24 Rotherham 46 -61 18

 

http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=2

 

[Benjam!n Ultra]

Saturday 1st of April looks like a good day to be a Wolves fan. In all seriousness I can see them beating Cardiff and then Forest, both at home, before they come here.

That week ending with them coming here could be the week that saves them. 

 

[BCFC Grim]

7 hours ago, 8menhadadream said:

The Grimsby fans have unloaded a good predictor.

Here's my biased effort.

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Newcastle 46 +49 99
2 Brighton 46 +42 98
3 Huddersfield 46 +19 95
4 Fulham 46 +29 82
5 Leeds 46 +14 81
6 Reading 46 +2 77
7 Sheff Wed 46 +14 76
8 Preston 46 +10 70
9 Aston Villa 46 +4 67
10 Brentford 46 +8 65
11 Norwich 46 +6 64
12 Derby 46 +3 63
13 Barnsley 46 +0 63
14 QPR 46 -8 61
15 Cardiff 46 -2 60
16 Ipswich 46 -11 56
17 Nott'm Forest 46 -12 50
18 Bristol City 46 -11 49
19 Birmingham 46 -25 47
20 Burton Albion 46 -17 46
21 Wolverhampton 46 -16 43
22 Blackburn 46 -19 42
23 Wigan 46 -18 39
24 Rotherham 46 -61 18

 

http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=2

 

Biased? Optimistic? Deluded? Take your pick 

[Bat Fastard]

8 minutes ago, BCFC Grim said:

Biased? Optimistic? Deluded? Take your pick 

Inspired!

[BCFC Grim]

7 minutes ago, Bat Fastard said:

Inspired!

Ooooo I like this game, however I don't want to hijack Matt's ( who seems to have alot of time on his hands )very good thread.

 

 

 

Dreaming......

[Wanderingred]

Wigan look doomed when you consider fheir remaining fixtures... Four of the top six still to play including both Newcastle and Brighton away. Ouch!

I think our fixtures look kinder than both Burton and Blackburns too so we've got a good chance... And if it comes down to the last day, we've got an easier fixture than either of them.

[Wellspokenman]

10 minutes ago, Wanderingred said:

Wigan look doomed when you consider fheir remaining fixtures... Four of the top six still to play including both Newcastle and Brighton away. Ouch!

I think our fixtures look kinder than both Burton and Blackburns too so we've got a good chance... And if it comes down to the last day, we've got an easier fixture than either of them.

Let's hope so, but at the arse end of the season there is rarely an easy fixture. 

Although given our current form....we're on fire ! 100% record in the last 5 days ? ....better than Newcastle  no less.

Yours ever optimistic,

Mr Silverlining....

[brizzlelou]

If we are to survive I think it's vital that we suck forest and brum. Blackburn and Wolves both have games in hand so that's a bit of a bummer.

[Wellspokenman]

1 minute ago, brizzlelou said:

If we are to survive I think it's vital that we suck forest and brum.

Ohhh errr....

is that a euphemism or a misspelling ?? 

[Bat Fastard]

2 minutes ago, brizzlelou said:

If we are to survive I think it's vital that we suck forest and brum. Blackburn and Wolves both have games in hand so that's a bit of a bummer.

Certainly colourful - I think those actions are best left to you, by the sound of it!

[Benjam!n Ultra]

6 minutes ago, brizzlelou said:

If we are to survive I think it's vital that we suck forest and brum. 

I'm not that desperate to stay up, thanks. 

[Bat Fastard]

9 minutes ago, Benjam!n Ultra said:

I'm not that desperate to stay up, thanks. 

I'm not so sure - this could be the start of a negotiation maybe - brizzlelou will do the necessary!

[KernowRed]

OP is good, but I feel each season should be seen on its own record.

Depending how strong the Champions are and how weak the surviving team is is shown for each season,

2012 CHAMP 89pts - Promoted 88 Pl/off 75 - Safety  49    =  spread is 40 pts

2013 CHAMP 87pts - Prom 79        Pl/off 68 - Safety 55     = spread is 32 pts

2014 CHAMP 102 pts - Prom 93 -   Pl/off 72 - Safety 44     = spread is 58 pts

2015 CHAMP 90 pts - Prom 89 - Pl/off 78    - Safety 46      = spread is 44 pts

2016 CHAMP 93 pts - Prom  89 - Pl/off 74    - Safety 49       = spread is 44 pts

2017 [37 av games] Champ 77 pts - prom 77 - Pl/off 62  Safety 38 [us]  = spread is 39 pts

It could be seen as the stronger the Champions are, the Safety level is lower, and vice versa when Champs are weaker.

This season I feel is an average one and survival in the upper 40s?

[Ashtonwurzel]

Forest are in all sorts of trouble and could seriously fail to get more than half a dozen more points = maybe not enough.

I feel that we will get at least 9 points from the last 9 games and therefore finish above them and the current bottom 3 !

 

[grubby]

Looking at this for 45 min or so and I can see that Blackburn have a MASSIVE say in this, they have so many games against sides that aren't mid table safers, I think 50 points will be safe, with us winning 3 games and drawing a couple, our run vs wolves qpr Blackburn and Barnsley is the crux for me, 6 points from these 4 and we should be ok, the wolves and Blackburn games are proper indicators.....COYR

[Wanderingred]

1 hour ago, Wellspokenman said:

Let's hope so, but at the arse end of the season there is rarely an easy fixture. 

Although given our current form....we're on fire ! 100% record in the last 5 days ? ....better than Newcastle  no less.

Yours ever optimistic,

Mr Silverlining....

Also, around half of our games are against teams in mid table with little to play for.. Brentford, Preston, Barnsley, QPR.. Probably Birmingham by the time we play them and hopefully Brighton will already be up by the time we visit the Amex. They might already have their eyes on the summer and next season already. Usually, teams that need the points in this situation end up taking them. Fingers crossed.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I predict we will stay up but only just. Have thought so for weeks.

Our run in is not bad, will the pressure of this level get to Burton?

Also despite our League Position our underlying numbers are not bad. Shots conceded to goals conceded is certainly higher than the norm for us.

[Wellspokenman]

42 minutes ago, Wanderingred said:

Also, around half of our games are against teams in mid table with little to play for.. Brentford, Preston, Barnsley, QPR.. Probably Birmingham by the time we play them and hopefully Brighton will already be up by the time we visit the Amex. They might already have their eyes on the summer and next season already. Usually, teams that need the points in this situation end up taking them. Fingers crossed.

Getting more optimistic by the second...!

Good God ....is that SL behind that beard ????? 

 

 

[brady bunch]

As Wanderingred stated, Wigan are down IMHO (not just because of their points and run in). THe main reason for me is that whilst we were not great yesterday, they were shocking. they lacked any fight at all, seemed happy with a point and made little attempt to go for it towards the end.

[brizzlelou]

2 hours ago, Wellspokenman said:

Ohhh errr....

is that a euphemism or a misspelling ?? 

Suck them in. Whoopsy 

[GoodridgeandGoater]

It does look like a fight to avoid third bottom. I see Wolves getting clear soon and Birmingham not being quite poor enough to get 'sucked'. So it's City, Blackburn, Forest and Burton, barring a late Wigan surge. Blackburn now picking up points. Burton continuing to win home games. City and Forest looking most precarious.

If I were a fan of those other teams I'd be reassured by just how poor our record has been. I think we'll do it but it will be tight. I see Forest limping over the line with Burton falling at the last. 

Well that is the hope!

 

[Major Isewater]

2 hours ago, Wellspokenman said:

Getting more optimistic by the second...!

Good God ....is that SL behind that beard ????? 

 

 

Is that the Leyland Daf Johnstones paint trophy he's holding ? 

[mattjtsmith]

I'm really not convinced by wolves. A lot of people saying they're a safe bet but they limped past "3 points" Rotherham at the weekend and are on appalling form otherwise. I think they're most likely to be third bottom in my eyes, Lambert is a loser and they're a club on the drop. 

[mattjtsmith]

On 3/12/2017 at 19:20, mattjtsmith said:

UPDATED - I have deleted Rotherham from the fixtures, as they're done other than goal difference now. Getting close on Wigan now too imo....

 

Current Survival Table -

16. Wolves - 45 (37)

17. Ipswich - 45 (38)

18. Birmingham - 45 (38)

19. Bristol City - 41 (38) gd -3

20. Notts Forest - 41 (38) GD -11

21. Burton - 41 (38) GD -14

-------------------------------------------

22. Blackburn - 40 (38) gd - 11

23. Wigan Athletic - 34 (38)

24. Rotherham - 17 (38)

 

Potential Points Score - 

16. Wolves - 72

17. Ipswich - 69

18. Birmingham - 69

19. Bristol City - 65

20. Notts Forest - 65

21. Burton - 65

-------------------------------------------

22. Blackburn - 64

23. Wigan Athletic - 58

24. Rotherham - 41

 

Therefore as it stands ; 

(I'll add more realistic points goals once we get closer. Doesn't seem much point now)

 

Fixtures - 

Saturday 1st April - Brentford vs City; Brighton vs Blackburn; Huddersfield vs Burton; Ipswich vs Birmingham; Newcastle vs Wigan; PNE vs Forest; Wolves vs Cardiff

Tuesday 4th April - Brighton vs Birmingham; Ipswich vs Wigan; PNE vs City; Wolves vs Forest; Reading vs Blackburn

Wednesday 5th April - Newcastle vs Burton

Saturday 8th April - Birmingham vs Derby; Blackburn vs Barnsley; City vs Wolves; Burton vs Villa; Fulham vs Ipswich; Forest vs Huddersfield; Wigan vs Rotherham

Thursday 13th April - Wigan vs Barnsley

Friday 14th April - City vs QPR; Forest vs Blackburn; Rotherham vs Birmingham; Wolves vs Brighton; Burton vs Ipswich 

Monday 17th April - Birmingham vs Burton; Blackburn vs City; Brighton vs Wigan; Cardiff vs Forest; Ipswich vs Newcastle; Leeds vs Wolves

Saturday 22nd April - City vs Barnsley; Burton vs Leeds; Forest vs Reading; Rotherham vs Ipswich; Wigan vs Cardiff; Wolves vs Blackburn

Sunday 23rd April - Villa vs Birmingham

Tuesday 25th April - Wolves vs Huddersfield

Saturday 29th April - Barnsley vs Burton; Birmingham vs Huddersfield; Blackburn vs Villa; Brighton vs City; Derby vs Wolves; Ipswich vs Sheff Weds; QPR vs Forest; Reading vs Wigan

Sunday 7th May - Brentford vs Blackburn; City vs Birmingham; Burton vs Reading; Forest vs Ipswich; Wigan vs Leeds; Wolves vs PNE

 

 

"Real Championship Table" - 

Based over 5 years on the points the points required; 

Points needed to be Champions Average = 90 points

Promotion Average = 85.4 points

Play Off Average = 71.8 points

Relegation Survival Average = 44.8points

 

102 - Champions 2014

101 - 

100 - 

99 - 

98 - 

97 - 

96 - 

95 - 

94 - 

93 - Promotion 2014, Champions 2016

92 -

91 - 

90 - Champions 2015

89 - Champions 2012, Promotion 2015, Promotion 2016

88 - Promotion 2012

87 - Champions 2013

86 - 

85 - 

84 - 

83 -  

82 -

81 - 

80 - 

79 - Promotion 2013

78 - Play Offs 2015; Newcastle (38) GD +38;

77 - Brighton (38) GD +31

76 - 

75 - Play Offs 2012

74 - Play Offs 2016

73 -  

72 - Play Offs 2014

71 -  Huddersfield (37)

70 - 

69 - Leeds (38)

68 - Play Offs 2013

67 - Reading (38)

66 - 

65 -

64 - 

63 -

62 - Sheffield Wednesday (38)

61 - Fulham (38)

60 - 

59 -

58 -

57 - Norwich (38) GD +9; Preston (38) GD +6

56 - 

55 - Safety 2013

54 - 

53 - Derby (38)

52 - 

51 - Barnsley (38) GD 0 ; Villa (38) GD 0; Cardiff (38) GD -1

50 - Brentford (38) GD +3; QPR (38) GD -5

49 - Safety 2016

48 - Safety 2012

47 - 

46 - Safety 2015

45 - Wolves (37) GD -2; Ipswich (38) GD -9; Birmingham (38) GD -16

44 - Safety 2014, 

43 - 

42 - 

41 - City (38) GD -3;Forest (38) GD -11; Burton (38) GD -14

40 - Blackburn (38) GD -11

39 - 

38 - 

37 -

36 -

35 -

34 - WIgan (38)

 

 

17 - Rotherham (38)

 

 

[Engvall's Splinter]

Staying up by 2 points. Unsure how I've got us to 51 points mind you!