Fine margins

[The Journalist]

After Tottenham were knocked out of the Champions League by Juventus last week, Chris Sutton made some really interesting - and quite critical - comments about fans, journalists and fellow pundits who he felt were looking too hard for reasons for Spurs' defeat.

Was Pochettino tactically outclassed? Were Tottenham streetwise enough? Do they only have one way of playing? Are they a team of chokers?

These were all questions put to him post-match, to which he continued to stress how well they'd played for long periods and how - on the balance of play - they should've been out of sight long before Juventus' unlikely comeback. He was right, of course.

I bring this up because it really hammered home one point that feels particularly pertinent to us at the moment - how a result can so drastically change our opinion of a performance and how little attention we pay to the fine margins.

Unlike many of you, if seems, when I watch us now I don't see a team vastly different to the one before Christmas. The one churning out victory after victory, earning plaudits from all and sundry for its playing style and led by a head coach who'd turned us all around.

What I see is a team that's lost that immeasurable belief and confidence that only comes from winning; a team that's subsequently stopped edging the really crucial moments; a team that's no longer getting the break of the ball in the box; a team that, against the odds, ends up conceding the late decisive goal instead of scoring it.

The fine margins, essentially.

I'll give some examples of games before Christmas that could've ended differently:

- Brentford 2-2 Bristol City: We were played off the park for long periods, only rescued by Bobby Reid's late equaliser.

- Bristol City 4-1 Crystal Palace: The Premier League side absolutely dominated the first half an hour, led 1-0, and should've scored again before a defensive error allowed Matty Taylor to drag us back into the game.

- Hull 2-3 Bristol City: For 68 minutes, as poor as we've been all season. Easily as bad as in Saturday's draw at Burton. But, against a team fragile in confidence, a goal from a set-piece turned the game on its head.

Sheff Utd 1-2 Bristol City: They hit the woodwork four times and played brilliantly. I'd have snapped your hand off for a point before John Fleck was sent off on 59 minutes. We nearly failed to break 10 men down and, had the referee blown for a free-kick on Bobby Reid immediately before Aden Flint's winner, we wouldn't have done.

Each one of these games was followed by another Bristol City win - the exception being Brentford, which instead sparked a 12-game unbeaten run. Each one of these games we could, and maybe should, have lost. Each one of these games would've changed our season if not for the fine margins.

Sure, mistakes were made in January. Sure, the head coach and his players have made some mistakes. Sure, we've been unlucky with injuries.

But the fine margins are why we - fans, players and staff - really do just have to stick in there for another nine games. Because it doesn't take much for it turn (just ask Derby County!) and when it does everything might just start going our way again.

[Major Isewater]

1 hour ago, The Journalist said:

After Tottenham were knocked out of the Champions League by Juventus last week, Chris Sutton made some really interesting - and quite critical - comments about fans, journalists and fellow pundits who he felt were looking too hard for reasons for Spurs' defeat.

Was Pochettino tactically outclassed? Were Tottenham streetwise enough? Do they only have one way of playing? Are they a team of chokers?

These were all questions put to him post-match, to which he continued to stress how well they'd played for long periods and how - on the balance of play - they should've been out of sight long before Juventus' unlikely comeback. He was right, of course.

I bring this up because it really hammered home one point that feels particularly pertinent to us at the moment - how a result can so drastically change our opinion of a performance and how little attention we pay to the fine margins.

Unlike many of you, if seems, when I watch us now I don't see a team vastly different to the one before Christmas. The one churning out victory after victory, earning plaudits from all and sundry for its playing style and led by a head coach who'd turned us all around.

What I see is a team that's lost that immeasurable belief and confidence that only comes from winning; a team that's subsequently stopped edging the really crucial moments; a team that's no longer getting the break of the ball in the box; a team that, against the odds, ends up conceding the late decisive goal instead of scoring it.

The fine margins, essentially.

I'll give some examples of games before Christmas that could've ended differently:

- Brentford 2-2 Bristol City: We were played off the park for long periods, only rescued by Bobby Reid's late equaliser.

- Bristol City 4-1 Crystal Palace: The Premier League side absolutely dominated the first half an hour, led 1-0, and should've scored again before a defensive error allowed Matty Taylor to drag us back into the game.

- Hull 2-3 Bristol City: For 68 minutes, as poor as we've been all season. Easily as bad as in Saturday's draw at Burton. But, against a team fragile in confidence, a goal from a set-piece turned the game on its head.

Sheff Utd 1-2 Bristol City: They hit the woodwork four times and played brilliantly. I'd have snapped your hand off for a point before John Fleck was sent off on 59 minutes. We nearly failed to break 10 men down and, had the referee blown for a free-kick on Bobby Reid immediately before Aden Flint's winner, we wouldn't have done.

Each one of these games was followed by another Bristol City win - the exception being Brentford, which instead sparked a 12-game unbeaten run. Each one of these games we could, and maybe should, have lost. Each one of these games would've changed our season if not for the fine margins.

Sure, mistakes were made in January. Sure, the head coach and his players have made some mistakes. Sure, we've been unlucky with injuries.

But the fine margins are why we - fans, players and staff - really do just have to stick in there for another nine games. Because it doesn't take much for it turn (just ask Derby County!) and when it does everything might just start going our way again.

What is frustrating is the collapse, we only needed average results for  the rest of the season to stay in the play off zone .

As this is City we go from the sublime to the ridiculous.

 I love this club but by Bob they don't make it easy for us .

 I hoped I had ditched forever my pseudonym ' Always the bridesmaid ' but ...

[CheddarReds]

I agree we need to stick behind the team, and perspective is needed - it's been a very successful season, albeit it looks like it will be tinted with the disappointment of not reaching the play offs. 

I also agree with the above examples, fine margins that can go your way. But Cardiff away and Burton away are the last two fixtures I've attended and neither result was because of fine margins. Unfortunately the Burton game showed us that the performance at Cardiff wasn't an anomaly. 

As I said perspective is needed and I'm still very happy with the season we have had.

[The Journalist]

39 minutes ago, CheddarReds said:

I agree we need to stick behind the team, and perspective is needed - it's been a very successful season, albeit it looks like it will be tinted with the disappointment of not reaching the play offs. 

I also agree with the above examples, fine margins that can go your way. But Cardiff away and Burton away are the last two fixtures I've attended and neither result was because of fine margins. Unfortunately the Burton game showed us that the performance at Cardiff wasn't an anomaly. 

As I said perspective is needed and I'm still very happy with the season we have had.

I totally understand where you're coming from re: the performances at Burton and Cardiff, but one isolated moment of quality or a set-piece goal for Bristol City in either game changes the results of both. Just as it did at Hull, where we were dreadful for over an hour and looked comfortable losers until a scrappy goal made it 2-1 and we went on to complete a comeback fans were eulogising over.

All that said, I don't want this to become an ifs, buts and maybes debate. My point is more that at times during this season we've played well and not so well - what we haven't done is gone from being really good to really poor. That just hasn't happened.

I'll use Derby as an example. They had an iffy start, went on a brilliant run of narrow wins and have now drawn a few. Do you think there's that much of a difference in their performance level between the run of wins and draws now? I'd bet they're near identical, allowing for the odd brilliant game and the odd below par one.

In truth, below Wolves very little separates the rest of the chasing pack. All it takes is a bit of luck, a bit of quality at the right moment, and the confidence returns...

[Mr Popodopolous]

@The Journalist I think there was a certain arrogance surrounding that Tottenham-Juventus game- yes Tottenham were great and should have won, but at the same time Juventus have the experience and pedigree to be able to hang on in and win- one shot one goal kind of ratio. They have done it frequently in Italy, Europe and Italian Cup games, our media can be somewhat arrogant, insular and full of it. Don't include Sutton in this.

When applied to City, to us. Absolutely- We have fine margins go our way...now concession of late equalisers, one point turning into zero and 3 points into one for example- it works both ways, as we saw for that terrible run last year. This division is really quite like that. The examples you gave are the flip side where we toughed it out for periods, or even got a bit lucky at other periods and popped up with the goal or goals to keep the run going. I suppose what I can take from having seen both, is that it COULD still turn again- if we get a late winner let's say v Ipswich, or a lucky one that would be a big boost to our belief and the tide could turn again- even if it seems unlikely at this time.

[The Journalist]

I appreciate your point re: Tottenham-Juventus. There's such a thing as having a winning edge and it's why the cream generally rises to the top. The best teams usually find a way to win, right?

My feeling is just that the nature of the Championship is so bonkers, and the league is so tight and evenly matched, that fine margins - and sometimes the uncontrollables - count more than ever.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I agree with all of that- out of likes though, unfortunately!

I still think we could get some fine margins falling our way between now and May- all it needs is a spark and we may win 3, 4 on the bounce- automatic is gone but like I said fine margins work both ways...

[Dullmoan Tone]

9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

@The Journalist I think there was a certain arrogance surrounding that Tottenham-Juventus game- yes Tottenham were great and should have won, but at the same time Juventus have the experience and pedigree to be able to hang on in and win- one shot one goal kind of ratio. They have done it frequently in Italy, Europe and Italian Cup games, our media can be somewhat arrogant, insular and full of it. Don't include Sutton in this.

When applied to City, to us. Absolutely- We have fine margins go our way...now concession of late equalisers, one point turning into zero and 3 points into one for example- it works both ways, as we saw for that terrible run last year. This division is really quite like that. The examples you gave are the flip side where we toughed it out for periods, or even got a bit lucky at other periods and popped up with the goal or goals to keep the run going. I suppose what I can take from having seen both, is that it COULD still turn again- if we get a late winner let's say v Ipswich, or a lucky one that would be a big boost to our belief and the tide could turn again- even if it seems unlikely at this time.

I wish that a lucky late goal would be enough to boost belief, but given where we are now we need consistency throughout 9 games not lucky moments.

The OP is right to highlight the turning moments of the games, however, there are too many whole halves where we have failed to make any impact whether you choose Bolton, Cardiff, Villa, Burton, Derby in fact most games since Christmas - it's not fine margins for City it's an inability to be consistent imo.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Dullmoan Tone said:

I wish that a lucky late goal would be enough to boost belief, but given where we are now we need consistency throughout 9 games not lucky moments.

The OP is right to highlight the turning moments of the games, however, there are too many whole halves where we have failed to make any impact whether you choose Bolton, Cardiff, Villa, Burton, Derby in fact most games since Christmas - it's not fine margins for City it's an inability to be consistent imo.

I appreciate what you're saying- attempting to be a bit optimistic- sometimes a small spark, a turning point can set a team up on a run. It's happened before- the Brownhill winner at Hull. Make no mistake, though we came back really well, Hull we should have lost a prime example- thereafter...13 points, which could well have been 15 from the next- a similar run would see us either right in the playoff shakeup or maybe even a couple of points above 7th.

Yeah, this run has been pretty bleak- though a point at Derby was a solid result- would also add Norwich at home first half we were badly outplayed in terms of chances created. All I am saying is that spark can sometimes change things- lucky moment breeds confidence, winnable game next, onto the next one- tails up and then before you know it you're on a bit of a roll.

Look at Wolves- their form has suddenly gone into a mini collapse and particularly by their standards- and for no apparent reason either. It can turn and very quickly.  Look at Fulham's form- where did that come from?? Villa got a reasonably late winner (last 15 mins) at Boro and have been on the charge ever since.

We have not been consistent but some of our games have still been narrow margins and late goals that have cost us. Some of it due to naivety, some of it due to perhaps a bit of bad luck.

[cidered abroad]

Very good post Journalist. I can't disagree with most of what you say. 

But what worries me is that in the last four seasons, teams managed/coached by Johnson have all suffered almost catastrophic losses of form for up to a third of the season. A couple or three bad results can be expected from all teams, but not the very poor results over long periods. 

If it starts in August next, may the gods help us to avoid the consequences. 

[The Journalist]

14 hours ago, cidered abroad said:

Very good post Journalist. I can't disagree with most of what you say. 

But what worries me is that in the last four seasons, teams managed/coached by Johnson have all suffered almost catastrophic losses of form for up to a third of the season. A couple or three bad results can be expected from all teams, but not the very poor results over long periods. 

If it starts in August next, may the gods help us to avoid the consequences. 

It’s an interesting point. As it happens - and I’m not suggesting there’s a link - I always had Gary Johnson down as quite a streaky manager.

Even when we finished fourth in 2007-08, it was a wobbly run of one win in 10 that cost us automatic promotion. Our current run of two wins in 13 isn’t that dissimilar, really.

I won’t go into the parallels between the two January transfer windows...

[Major Isewater]

19 hours ago, The Journalist said:

I appreciate your point re: Tottenham-Juventus. There's such a thing as having a winning edge and it's why the cream generally rises to the top. The best teams usually find a way to win, right?

My feeling is just that the nature of the Championship is so bonkers, and the league is so tight and evenly matched, that fine margins - and sometimes the uncontrollables - count more than ever.

So you're saying we should control the ' uncontrolables' ? 

[Major Isewater]

Margins are narrower now  with the démocratisation of information technology.

It is available to most  clubs to monitor performances and prepare against the competition.

Fitness levels are higher as clubs better understand how to keep their players at their peak .

The difference is down to the quality of player both innate and learnt. 

A fourth division striker is most likely less clinical with his shooting and  will need more chances to score in comparison to a Prem striker , as one example.

How many times have we seen the lower placed club make life very uncomfortable for their more illustrious opponents only to lose to a moment of quick thinking or sublime skill ? 

So the margins are narrower than say twenty , thirty years ago but offset against the squad sizes , training and medical facilities that the big clubs have they still remain ahead of the smaller ones.

Money is the difference. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

20 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

Margins are narrower now  with the démocratisation of information technology.

It is available to most  clubs to monitor performances and prepare against the competition.

Fitness levels are higher as clubs better understand how to keep their players at their peak .

The difference is down to the quality of player both innate and learnt. 

A fourth division striker is most likely less clinical with his shooting and  will need more chances to score in comparison to a Prem striker , as one example.

How many times have we seen the lower placed club make life very uncomfortable for their more illustrious opponents only to lose to a moment of quick thinking or sublime skill ? 

So the margins are narrower than say twenty , thirty years ago but offset against the squad sizes , training and medical facilities that the big clubs have they still remain ahead of the smaller ones.

Money is the difference. 

Out of reactions but I fully agree with this- the margins really have narrowed IMO, for the reasons you rightly outline.

Would also add a greater tactical understanding and scouting not in the players but of opposition- again greatly enhanced by IT, particularly in the top 2 divisions has helped tactical preparation. Lower side v bigger side in the League, or even the Cup? A lot more tools now available to the lower sides than 20-30 years ago- raising the game is definitely an element of it, but as you say IT and the monitoring of performances and preparation vs specific opponents, v the competition. Teams are therefore better prepared, better drilled than ever- which can really make it difficult for the more fancied, better opponent on a game-by-game basis.