Losses loom larger than gains: the January transfer windows

[Jack Dawe]

Jan 2016: Tomlin, on loan. O'Donnell, Scott Golbourne, perm deals. Odemwingie, loan. All experienced, established. Know the league etc.

Jan 2017: Bailey Wright, Milan Djuric, Jens Hegeler, Matt Taylor, permanent signings. Plus Dave Cotterill and Fab Giefer, loaned. Busy! All arrive with experience, quality and ready to go. In theory.

Jan 2018: Walsh, signs. Kent and Diony, loan. Not so busy, not so much experience, not so much ready-to-go.

 

Have I missed any signings?

 

What I think we see here is how losses loom larger than gains, how the fear of losing something (Championship status/relegation) stirs SL into greater action/short-term quick fixes than the prospect of gaining something (PL/promotion), which will come with adherence to The Project/pillars/ the long-term approach. Also, possibly (and not a little controversially), SL was more fearful of a loss/relegation with LJ than he was a year before with SC, but that's a side issue. Let's not be side-tracked.

Bad is stronger than good.

In Jan 2016, and Jan 2017, we did more business and brought in more players ready to hit the ground running (in theory) than this January. Imagine a signing of the calibre of Tomlin arriving 6 weeks ago?! Compare his cv and impact here two years ago, with that of our three new faces this January. Or bringing in 6 players! All in or near the peak years of their careers, like Jan 2017.

It appears strange, but behavioural economics and simple pop psychology might explain: bad is stronger than good/losses loom larger than gains.

SL, in Jan 16 and 17, thought: ****! We need to pull our finger out and do something. Panic! Do something (sack Johnson? Or sign a shedload of players? Sign some bloody players, Ashton!), temporarily abandon The Project!

This Jan, SL had his feet up on the desk, his hat at a jaunty angle, and a fat cigar in his mouth. Easy like Sunday morning! Things are moving forward, stick to The Project.

 

I think this January's transfer activity - which might appear complacent - reflects a quiet confidence, and an air of belief in the long-term Plan, to deliver continued improvement and eventually PL football. Lansdown, Johnson and Ashton believe it will happen. And it reflects that the very human reality that losses loom larger than gains. Even for billionaires.

Buy young/cheap; coach/improve; sell high. Repeat. Only deviate from this when at the wrong end of the table in January.

And we can see: this approach has worked for four successive seasons now. The hardest bit might be in front of them: to go from where we are now, to promotion from this league. But for now, year on year, with this approach, we are still moving forward. 

It's not all over (although this season is), this is not the end. Good things might still happen. But probably not in January.

 

Ultimately, they need to do better this coming summer, rather than looking to the January window to make our dreams come true. 

And remember, for Steve Lansdown, and @tinman85, and @Thatch35, and @Londoner, and you and me: bad is stronger than good. And losses loom larger than gains.

 

Up the City!

 

 

[Alessandro]

Do you not think, to simplify your argument, January business is often a product of summer business?

Summer 15: Poor summer, Kodjia only notable signing? Therefore much more needed Jan 16 to avoid relegation.

Summer 16: In - Tomlin, Hörður, Moore, Engvall, O'Dowda, Brownhill, Paterson, GON, Tammy, Matthews. Productive summer but a lot of younger players. Therefore January 17, on paper and despite form, we needed to add a little here and there, especially some experience, and replace Kodjia as he left late in the summer.

Summer 17: Famara, Baker, Eliasson, Steele, Pisano, Leko, Woodrow. Decent again - certainly on paper. Therefore January, effectively Kent for a disappointing Leko and Diony for a disappointing Woodrow.

The fact is, we've done our best business over the summer the last few years and that is the best way round to do it - and the bottom line is, all our signings this Jan were good on paper and importantly within our means, a gamble yes, but you can forget about Grabban and Afobe. The reality is we covered on paper what we needed except arguably the RB area. 

[Jack Dawe]

@Alessandro I think the difference between this January and last January is glaring, significant. Bleedin' obvious. And is explained by loss aversion. 

And I think that people that feel "let down" by this January are missing something. The club are not "complacent" they are simply staying on-track. Not moving fast enough for some, but moving forward nonetheless.

This isn't 2008. Or 1991. 

We are a different club now and not built on sand.

[Major Isewater]

2 hours ago, Jack Dawe said:

@Alessandro I think the difference between this January and last January is glaring, significant. Bleedin' obvious. And is explained by loss aversion. 

And I think that people that feel "let down" by this January are missing something. The club are not "complacent" they are simply staying on-track. Not moving fast enough for some, but moving forward nonetheless.

This isn't 2008. Or 1991. 

We are a different club now and not built on sand.

The team is going backwards, it's not a question of not going fast enough.

We are in relegation form and need to change that now .

 Wake up . 

The collapse is astonishing. 

 

[Spike]

Bottom Line our three signings this January haven't given us anything we didn't already have. 

Jan 2017 gave us a much-needed boost, especially Cotterill who hit the ground running and gave us a bit of life on the wing when it wasn't happening prior to that.
Jan 2016 Tomlin was arguably the most impactful player we had at the time, yes it didn't end well but that was more down to him than the club and it still benefitted us.

Both January windows, 2016 and 2017 gave us something we didn't have, 2018 has left us with more of what we already had and still lacking what we needed.

[Jack Dawe]

11 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

The team is going backwards, it's not a question of not going fast enough.

We are in relegation form and need to change that now .

 Wake up . 

The collapse is astonishing. 

 

Just woken up, Major. Good morning, beautiful day.

The team reflect the club as a whole, and the Jan transfer business - particularly when compared to our rivals in the top 6 - sent out the same message as Ashton's "we're not targetting promotion" comment: relax everyone, we're safe. Next season's what we've got our eye on. The use of the ineffective/embarrassing/laughable Diony ahead of other players, also communicates the wrong message.

The team have eased up, at least subconsciously, almost going through the motions now. 

This is a club that is satisfied with what we've got this season, and the team lacks the "edge" that the others are playing with - Cardiff, Villa, Derby, Boro feel they have to go up this season, for financial reasons amongst others. We don't have that imperative.

I'm not surprised the team are going backwards, but it doesn't, imho, at this point, therefore mean that the club are going backward (as happened once we lost to Hull, and GJ's powers waned).

Time will tell, though. It might be that we do not get that "edge" back next season and continue to drift. Given good recruitment over the summer - if we finish top 10 this might help - and enough fit/fresh players, what is to stop us getting on another good run next Autumn and playing some more attractive tippy tappy football?

I suppose Reid might sign a 5 year deal and never be the same again......