The Losing Runs

[Maesknoll Red]

Quite a few posts on the losing streaks that LJ has had a Barnsley and here, thought I'd put all his results as a Manager on a spreadsheet to visualise if they are as bad as they seem. There definitely seems to be a pattern, but without taking that info for other Managers, I guess we don't know if its unusual or not, it would suggest that something is causing it, I'm not sure I believe in coincidence 3 seasons running, as there have been such losing streaks.

Looking at it on paper, this season looks more impressive than last - as it is - but I can certainly appreciate the feeling that it is in grave danger of fizzling out after a fantastic start, question is why?  I am sure the hi-tech analysis that is available to the club must give some indication of what causes these slumps, one thing is for sure, they need to be eradicated to actually achieve anything other than perpetual disappointment.

 

 

 

[Super]

Didn't we lose 8 in a row last season?

[Lord Northski]

44 white games in a row !

[city1983]

did we really play 63 games last season?

[Welcome To The Jungle]

29 minutes ago, Super said:

Didn't we lose 8 in a row last season?

If he includes cup games then I think Fleetwood in the fa cup broke it up

[Super]

16 minutes ago, city1983 said:

did we really play 63 games last season?

Confused by that! We didn't last long in the cups did we? just checked we played 53

[Maesknoll Red]

Oh bugger, I got interrupted doing it, I’ll correct it tonight.

[Maesknoll Red]

Couldn’t wait that long.... edited now!!

[YorkshireSection]

Just a thought but could these runs be fitness related, does  LJ rely on the fitness levels of integral players of the successful high press system.

Pato, Smith & recently Reid seem to have dipped in form, these players have been the core of LJ tactics, is it coincidence that Smith picked up an injury, Pato a virus and Bobby very recently looks a tad burnt out, who knows but IMHO these players are key to our success, without them or sufficient cover our form was surely to dip.

[General Zod]

When you look at his pre city record it seems unspectacular but  I’ve got nothing to compare it to and in needs to be in context with the clubs he was at.  Based on how as a club we analyse everything to death and MA and SL don’t strike me as men who would just work off of a gut feeling what is it in LJ record at his two previous clubs over a relatively short period of time that made our board think it was the right time in his career for LJ to take over at Bristol City. I get that he understands the club and no doubt the board felt he was the type of person they could work with but what did they see based on his record that made them think he was ready to be thrown into the Championship and not marked as one to keep an eye on.  

[ExiledAjax]

That table also shows some pretty impressive unbeaten runs. Just to give the glass half full perspective.

[YorkshireSection]

2 minutes ago, General Zod said:

When you look at his pre city record it seems unspectacular but  I’ve got nothing to compare it to and in needs to be in context with the clubs he was at.  Based on how as a club we analyse everything to death and MA and SL don’t strike me as men who would just work off of a gut feeling what is it in LJ record at his two previous clubs over a relatively short period of time that made our board think it was the right time in his career for LJ to take over at Bristol City. I get that he understands the club and no doubt the board felt he was the type of person they could work with but what did they see based on his record that made them think he was ready to be thrown into the Championship and not marked as one to keep an eye on.  

Excellent post.

Indeed, when you look at LJ record before being appointed to his position here, there's nothing to indicate that he had the credentials to prosper at Championship level (& above, hopefully), nothing but the correct DNA of course!

He has improved our position, profile and there is still a possibility that we could reach the play offs and of course even get promoted, so let's keep our fingers crossed that the powers that be, have in LJ, selected the correct man for the job, I doubt it was an easy selection, if not slightly bewildering for some of us!

[Maesknoll Red]

25 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

That table also shows some pretty impressive unbeaten runs. Just to give the glass half full perspective.

It seems strange to get up on a high, with some decent runs and then plunge into such poor spells, it would be interesting to look at player availability during those runs, both winning and losing, not sure if I have the time or will to go in that deep.......

[ExiledAjax]

10 minutes ago, Maesknoll Red said:

It seems strange to get up on a high, with some decent runs and then plunge into such poor spells, it would be interesting to look at player availability during those runs, both winning and losing, not sure if I have the time or will to go in that deep.......

So many other factors to apply as well.  League position and available players of opposition for example.

One of the things that could be possible would be to find the average odds of each game and see whether the result went with the favourite or against, that might give you some idea of how "fortunate" each result was or whether those losing runs were to be expected based on odds. 

You'd better hope its a rainy weekend.

[Crisis what Crisis ?]

16 hours ago, Maesknoll Red said:

Quite a few posts on the losing streaks that LJ has had a Barnsley and here, thought I'd put all his results as a Manager on a spreadsheet to visualise if they are as bad as they seem. There definitely seems to be a pattern, but without taking that info for other Managers, I guess we don't know if its unusual or not, it would suggest that something is causing it, I'm not sure I believe in coincidence 3 seasons running, as there have been such losing streaks.

Looking at it on paper, this season looks more impressive than last - as it is - but I can certainly appreciate the feeling that it is in grave danger of fizzling out after a fantastic start, question is why?  I am sure the hi-tech analysis that is available to the club must give some indication of what causes these slumps, one thing is for sure, they need to be eradicated to actually achieve anything other than perpetual disappointment.

 

 

 

Outstanding piece of research my friend , not withstanding the whole 'lies, damned lies and statistics' argument , but what strikes me is the fact that our board couldn't possibly have looked at those 15/16 stats from Barnsley and thought ' ...here's the wunderkind with all the answers ! ' ....surely ?!?

[cidered abroad]

3 hours ago, YorkshireSection said:

Just a thought but could these runs be fitness related, does  LJ rely on the fitness levels of integral players of the successful high press system.

Pato, Smith & recently Reid seem to have dipped in form, these players have been the core of LJ tactics, is it coincidence that Smith picked up an injury, Pato a virus and Bobby very recently looks a tad burnt out, who knows but IMHO these players are key to our success, without them or sufficient cover our form was surely to dip.

If that is the reason, it would highlight the lack of quality depth in the squad. We have lots of players but too many are "work in progress" or unsatisfactory loanees. 

It's a good point but I believe that the problem goes deeper than that. 

[OldlandReddies]

If we have the same end of season run as we did last year we will deffo make top 6.

[cidered abroad]

2 hours ago, YorkshireSection said:

Excellent post.

Indeed, when you look at LJ record before being appointed to his position here, there's nothing to indicate that he had the credentials to prosper at Championship level (& above, hopefully), nothing but the correct DNA of course!

He has improved our position, profile and there is still a possibility that we could reach the play offs and of course even get promoted, so let's keep our fingers crossed that the powers that be, have in LJ, selected the correct man for the job, I doubt it was an easy selection, if not slightly bewildering for some of us!

Good points but for me he has proved over the last five seasons at Oldham, Barnsley and City, that he is not up to it. 

[Robin1988]

3 hours ago, General Zod said:

When you look at his pre city record it seems unspectacular but  I’ve got nothing to compare it to and in needs to be in context with the clubs he was at.  Based on how as a club we analyse everything to death and MA and SL don’t strike me as men who would just work off of a gut feeling what is it in LJ record at his two previous clubs over a relatively short period of time that made our board think it was the right time in his career for LJ to take over at Bristol City. I get that he understands the club and no doubt the board felt he was the type of person they could work with but what did they see based on his record that made them think he was ready to be thrown into the Championship and not marked as one to keep an eye on.  

Oldham haven't been as high in the league table as they were the day he left. Not bad on a shoestring.

But can anyone really say he knows how to arrest a slide? You can say it's the players' fault all you like, but how many times is this going to happen?

[oldstandrobin]

3 hours ago, YorkshireSection said:

Excellent post.

Indeed, when you look at LJ record before being appointed to his position here, there's nothing to indicate that he had the credentials to prosper at Championship level (& above, hopefully), nothing but the correct DNA of course!

He has improved our position, profile and there is still a possibility that we could reach the play offs and of course even get promoted, so let's keep our fingers crossed that the powers that be, have in LJ, selected the correct man for the job, I doubt it was an easy selection, if not slightly bewildering for some of us!

Like a lot on here and not on here, I wasnt impressed with LJ's appointment but he has grown on me and probably a lot of others as well. With the continual moving (Pardew an example) of managers within months of joining a club, we have set out in the same way Harry Dolman saw Alan Dicks and we can only hope that time will make Lee a valued commodity here. Sad thing is that in Bristol we have been starved of Top Class Football and we have had so many half chances, it makes us as fans impatient for top flight. It is not as simple as saying ' we need X transfer windows' to achieve our aim but they have to give us fans something to cling to. Next season will undoubtedly be the real test and I hope Lee can forge a side that will go the distance , if not, I still enjoy Championship football with its cut and thrust, and at least we still are above Rovers !!

[YorkshireSection]

3 hours ago, cidered abroad said:

If that is the reason, it would highlight the lack of quality depth in the squad. We have lots of players but too many are "work in progress" or unsatisfactory loanees. 

It's a good point but I believe that the problem goes deeper than that. 

I'm sad to say I agree with you, I said in an earlier thread that I believe LJ will be to Bristol City as to what Dave Jones was to Cardiff.

[Maesknoll Red]

Midnight conferences..... just the time to look up stats on the internet...

To try and put some balance on the LJ spreadsheet, I wondered what other Managers might look like, so to compare, the LJ one again first, then our divisive friend across the bridge, NW and the third is Gary Rowett, another name mooted on here as a candidate at one time.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bryans Left Peg]

So Gary Rowett had runs of;

2012 (Burton): 1 win in 9

2013 (Burton): 1 win in 8

2013 (Brum): 5 wins in 24 (including 2x 1 win in 8)

2014 (Brum): 1 win in 11 -  then 1 win in 6 - then 1 win in 10.

2015 (Brum): 1 win in 8

2017 (Derby): 1 win in 7 - then 1 win in 11

 

Warnock's record (Cardiff aside) over the last few years hasn't been too incredible either (is that 2 wins in 13 I see at Leeds? Then 1 win in 12 at Palace?)

[Maesknoll Red]

11 minutes ago, Bryans Left Peg said:

So Gary Rowett had runs of;

2012 (Burton): 1 win in 9

2013 (Burton): 1 win in 8

2013 (Brum): 5 wins in 24 (including 2x 1 win in 8)

2014 (Brum): 1 win in 11 -  then 1 win in 6 - then 1 win in 10.

2015 (Brum): 1 win in 8

2017 (Derby): 1 win in 7 - then 1 win in 11

 

Warnock's record (Cardiff aside) over the last few years hasn't been too incredible either (is that 2 wins in 13 I see at Leeds? Then 1 win in 12 at Palace?)

If Wiki is to be believed, Warnock's record isn't as good as some might think in terms of win percentages.

 

[ExiledAjax]

Thought about making a new thread but thought I'd stick this on here to make it a kind of "stat thread".  I sometimes post Experimental 361's stuff on here when we are doing well so it's only fair to do it now as well. Basically it confirms and predicts the worst.

Our attacking prowess has dramatically fallen in recent weeks, even though our defence has actually tightened up.  We are now, on current form, the 17th most effective team in the division in terms of chances created v conceded.

Then his predictions come into play. Essentially his model expects that we are most likely to finish below Boro, Sheff U, Millwall and even Preston, in 10th.  Some fall from grace, although I suspect that wins against Boro, Sheff U, and Millwall would quickly reverse this prediction. 

A refinement of these predictions shows that it really is now a case of scrapping for that 6th spot against a bunch of teams in better form than us.  this table slightly puts a positive spin on it as it shows that it's kind of a random coin toss as to exactly where each of the teams currently in 6-10th finish. I know that you don't really need these tables and projections to see this but they do ram home the fact that we are, at the time of writing, rather limping to the finish.

[Davefevs]

On 04/04/2018 at 17:57, Crisis what Crisis ? said:

Outstanding piece of research my friend , not withstanding the whole 'lies, damned lies and statistics' argument , but what strikes me is the fact that our board couldn't possibly have looked at those 15/16 stats from Barnsley and thought ' ...here's the wunderkind with all the answers ! ' ....surely ?!?

Nice work @Maesknoll Red 

What I was surprised at was that LJ didn’t come here on the back of a bad run at Barnsley, he’d already turned it around.  I’d been led to believe by sone of the the Tyke posters on here that there promotion form was all down to Heckingbottom!!