Well done Gregor McGregorface !

[The Bard]

24 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

 

Thinking about this it actually benefits even longer

FFP allows you to lose something like £39m over 3 years - most clubs running at a constant loss have to juggle this each year

If say you’ve had PPs and at the end of those payments have spent it all

You would even then start on 0 for 3 years of FFP (In otherwards you can punt a £39m over the next 3 years -in one season if so inclined without incurring FFP)

That doesn't sound like a benefit to me.  It sounds like a trap. One that Bolton, Blackburn, Charlton etc have all fallen for.  Living beyond their means. 

 

[tin]

14 hours ago, BRISTOL86 said:

Hopefully it stops some of the nonsense aimed at the manager from fans, the word deluded springs to mind if they think we were ever in the market for players like Mitrovic etc. 

Why is do you think it's delusion?

I've lifted this from a comment on the Post website but it makes sense.

Let's say Mitrovic is on £80,000 a week at Newcastle and costs Fulham a £1m loan fee over the course of 6 months. That's £4m all in. 

Considering City have:

• agreed to pay St Etienne around £5m for Diony (if promoted)
• wasted millions on countless others
• were in 2nd place at the time the transfer window reopened (making us more attractive to players of this ilk if we're willing to pay the going rate)
• and stand to make at least £185m from promotion to the PL (using Huddersfield's promotion as a benchmark)

Is it not unreasonable to think MA and LJ could've invested the money far more better than they did? They're not averse to paying that sort of figure for a player (Kodjia, Diedhiou, Diony). 

Obviously every loan is a gamble and I query this with the benefit of hindsight in that Mitrovic's loan fee and wages have been worth every penny for Fulham so far, but the question for me is about the club's aspiration - and lack of it. 

[BRISTOL86]

5 minutes ago, tin said:

Why is do you think it's delusion?

I've lifted this from a comment on the Post website but it makes sense.

Let's say Mitrovic is on £80,000 a week at Newcastle and costs Fulham a £1m loan fee over the course of 6 months. That's £4m all in. 

Considering City have:

• agreed to pay St Etienne around £5m for Diony (if promoted)
• wasted millions on countless others
• were in 2nd place at the time the transfer window reopened (making us more attractive to players of this ilk if we're willing to pay the going rate)
• and stand to make at least £185m from promotion to the PL (using Huddersfield's promotion as a benchmark)

Is it not unreasonable to think MA and LJ could've invested the money far more better than they did? They're not averse to paying that sort of figure for a player (Kodjia, Diedhiou, Diony). 

Obviously every loan is a gamble and I query this with the benefit of hindsight in that Mitrovic's loan fee and wages have been worth every penny for Fulham so far, but the question for me is about the club's aspiration - and lack of it. 

It’s delusion because it’s abundantly clear that we won’t be signing players on those kind of wages under Lansdown.

For whatever reason it seems he’s happy to sanction high fees but not high wages. 

[BobBobSuperBob]

43 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said:

It’s delusion because it’s abundantly clear that we won’t be signing players on those kind of wages under Lansdown.

For whatever reason it seems he’s happy to sanction high fees but not high wages. 

Agree

Thats abundantly clear , repeated regularly and LJs interview was another reminder

Because I would suggest he’s (SLs) wasted millions on overpaying poor players earlier in his stewardship (We had a reputation in game as a soft touch) and has now decided to play hard ball

Wages are dead money once paid , in theory if you’re recruiting is good , a fee is recoupable,possibly a profit to be made at.a later date

All good theory 

The issue comes with the word IF you’re recruitment is good

I still maintain ours is somewhere between mixed and poor IMHO with a result that instead of wages we will also see the fruition of a lot of wasted fees in coming years - We can only hope the hits make up for the misses

IMHO , in my lifetime of watching the Club (Save a couple of periods when a side was astutely constructed - JJS and SCs spring to mind) our Scouting / recruitment has been poor compared to many clubs and IMHO Doesn’t inspire any degree of confidence at the present time

[BRISTOL86]

6 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Agree

Thats abundantly clear , repeated regularly and LJs interview was another reminder

Because I would suggest he’s (SLs) wasted millions on overpaying poor players earlier in his stewardship (We had a reputation in game as a soft touch) and has now decided to play hard ball

Wages are dead money once paid , in theory if you’re recruiting is good , a fee is recoupable,possibly a profit to be made at.a later date

All good theory 

The issue comes with the word IF you’re recruitment is good

I still maintain ours is somewhere between mixed and poor IMHO with a result that instead of wages we will also see the fruition of a lot of wasted fees in coming years - We can only hope the hits make up for the misses

IMHO , in my lifetime of watching the Club (Save a couple of periods when a side was astutely constructed - JJS and SCs spring to mind) our Scouting / recruitment has been poor compared to many clubs and IMHO Doesn’t inspire any degree of confidence at the present time

I think the success of Kodjia probably reinforced SLs belief that we could implement the model he’s trying to achieve. I guess how long (and how much £) it takes to find the next one will have some bearing on his resolve to stick to it for the long term.

For example if by some miracle we found ourselves at Christmas in a similar position to this season - will he be resolute or will he say ‘screw it’ after the outcome of this season and push the boat out. Of course in reality it could easily be 10 years before we’re in the same situation. 

[BobBobSuperBob]

40 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said:

I think the success of Kodjia probably reinforced SLs belief that we could implement the model he’s trying to achieve. I guess how long (and how much £) it takes to find the next one will have some bearing on his resolve to stick to it for the long term.

For example if by some miracle we found ourselves at Christmas in a similar position to this season - will he be resolute or will he say ‘screw it’ after the outcome of this season and push the boat out. Of course in reality it could easily be 10 years before we’re in the same situation. 

I think (genuinely and honestly)( but  I’ll receive a load of negative reaction )

His big test will come if we find ourselves struggling next year and looking nervously in the wrong direction 

For this model to succeed You need  good / very good recruitment and a high success rate &  ability in the coaching staff to develop and improve those players recruited hence increasing their value

I don’t think our recruitment is good / very good and as flashes of promise the coaching staff have shown I’m not convinced about the second part with any confidence, certainly not yet

The Wages is an interesting one (SL also has a big thing about agents fees which restricts us further) as although most would regard them as dead money you could also see them as part of your investment package / cost (IF iF If you are confident in your recruitment)

 

 

 

Ie Sign player A For say £4 million and give him £40k a week 

2 yrs later you’re outlay has been £6m

As Long as his value is at tha5 point £6 m or above his 2yrs at Club has cost nothing if you sell and if you’ve got it right , nothing with a dividend

If you sign a player for £5 m and give him £10k a week the cost / package the same

(Id suggest the first Scenario would be easier to pull off)

in the meantime investments in potential can not only  bring (If the signing fails to any d3gree)a loss on the fee involved but the wages on that player wasted too

let’s take Engvall for example and to make it easy let’s say it was a £1.5m fee (Plus agent fees)  (LJ and MA both accepted it was a £2m + deal) and I would suggest Engvall is probably on something like £8/10 k a week 

Let’s be conservative again and say £8k - Two years wages approx £850k

Total Cost to date  Somewhere around £3m (Minus any contribution to wages we may have squeezed out)

If we sell GE in summer I’d suggest we’d be lucky to recoup £500k 

So a approx loss of £2-2.5m (I appreciate based on rough figures and projected sale fee)

As a Club hoping allegedly to be self sustainable ( And I can’t ever see that being realistic at this level personally) you can’t afford too many of them !!!!

I agree the success / profit on JK May have persuaded SL he wa right to follow this path

Even with JK a rare profit making success in our history , when you go back over the fee we paid , the sell on clause to Angers and his wages whilst here - I’m not sure the full profit on him was anywhere near some of the heady sums some throw about on here)

( I hope all that made some sense !!!!) 

 

 

 

SL is unbelievably successful in his field based around financial investments so is difficult to question him but personally I’m not sure he’s got it right in relation to football (I’d keep a sensible reign on but see wages as a necessary evil in the total cost of an investment - ultimately again I say if you’re recruitment is good and you have confidence in it the investment should be productive)

SLs stance on wages and agents fees will naturally have a choking effect on our recruitment options and force us off into other ponds and rivers as Mr Ashton reminds us

For what it’s worth I don’t see we have the structure in place, certainly not at present time ,  to make it work and it may prove to be just as expensive as other approaches we’ve tried

Personally , if it was me , having already invested over £100-150m ? In the Club I’m not sure I would have reigned in so tight and would have been prepared , with some sensible limits , further to achieve my goal of Premiership Football when SL could swell and recoup all his investment I’d suggest or look for the Club to run self sufficiently and even begin to reclaim some of his investment whilst still retaining ownership

 

Ultimately it’s SLs money and he calls the shots

 

[BRISTOL86]

Don’t disagree Bob in that in hindsight I’m surprised SL didn’t look to push on in January given how many years passed between now and the last ‘nearly’ season. 

However you look to a handful of key games where we grasped defeat from the jaws of victory (Wolves, Sunderland, Leeds) and had they panned out  differently we’d be 5th and 4 points clear of 7th going into the final 3. 

Such fine lines between success and failure at this level

[BobBobSuperBob]

18 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said:

Don’t disagree Bob in that in hindsight I’m surprised SL didn’t look to push on in January given how many years passed between now and the last ‘nearly’ season. 

However you look to a handful of key games where we grasped defeat from the jaws of victory (Wolves, Sunderland, Leeds) and had they panned out  differently we’d be 5th and 4 points clear of 7th going into the final 3. 

Such fine lines between success and failure at this level

Personally if I was SL  I might have had a one off short term punt in January with some loanees wages, accepting that if we didn’t get promoted the money paid out on those wages was certainly dead money (Easy of course when it’s not our money   ) (But I’m working on the theory I’m worth £1.8 billion ! And have already invested £100-150m  )

Im more concerned that the hardball line re wages and agent fees may suffocate us in our general and ongoing recruitment to the degree that the imapact will become clear too quickly on the pitch

The wages and agent fees are not a reason alone - other Clubs are doing it and having a good go in Championship with smaller overall budgets and I feel we are in a muddled / middle ground place regarding what we spend and how / where for all reasons in my longish post above 

We are wasting precious budget a bit too liberally in my personal view

Im not a Premiership dreamer and would first and foremost like to see us as a truly established Championship side / competitor

 

I know I’ll get slated but sadly but genuinely and honesty I see more chance of a fight for our status in Championship rather than promotion push next season 

 

(And I absolutely & totally DO hope I’m way off on that)

(Cue Some dickead suggesting I’m a SAG)

 

( Our business in the summer will dictate that to a great degree of course)

 

[Davefevs]

8 hours ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

I had it look and it appeared their PP finished last season

 

http://www.friendsoffulham.com/forum/index.php?topic=60202.0

Yes, it’s confusing when you look at who got relegated when, and where the money shows up in their accounts.  You have to take into account their account reporting date too.  Some will be May 31st, some June 30th, and Sunderland 31st July, hence their accounts for last season not yet due.  Middlesbrough are almost 3 week’s overdue....make of that what you like!

8 hours ago, RedM said:

These parachute payments, please forgive me if it’s a stupid question but I genuinely don’t know, but what happens to the money if it isn’t spent? Can it be carried over to the next season and used  or will clubs then fall foul of the fair finances rule? If so with careful budgeting clubs could have an advantage well over the 3 or 4 years?

The money will need to be accounted for in the year it is received.  So for example say the PP is received on 1st June, any club with a reporting date of 31st May will show it in the following years accounts, hence why the spreadsheet I put up the other week shows anomalies between the PP and when they got relegated.

Simon Jordan was explaining on TS on Tuesday morning that the PP / TV money comes in the form of a balloon payment plus regular instalments.

He went on to say that many clubs borrow against both in advance of receiving it.  When asked if that was Bank Loans and Overdrafts - he replied no, unlikely that Banks will lend based on the Credit Rating of the Premier League.  If the PL went bust (think ITV Digital) then they’d have no chance of getting their money back.  So clubs go to other lenders, at higher rates!!!  Wonder how many have spent next years and the year afters, or at least have huge commitments against it.....cough, Sunderland, cough, Jack Rodwell.

This link is interesting:

https://www.companysearchesmadesimple.com/premier-league-credit-scores/

Middlesbrough sit 18th in last season’s credit score.....wonder if they are holding back their accounts (see my 1st para) in the hope that promotion might soften it?

 

[Kid in the Riot]

22 hours ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/lee-johnson-warns-bristol-city-1474313

 

thought he spoke quite well to be fair

Even admitted we played our best football of the season when we were "forced" into playing a certain style of football with Paterson and Reid up front! 

I'd like to know why following Paterson's superb run of form in the first few months of the season playing in the hole, LJ moved him out wide and he's not been the same player since!

[Lanterne Rouge]

Half the reason Mitrovic went to Fulham is because he`s Serbian and so is Jokanovic. He said as much when he signed for them.

They were always going to be favourites in that race.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Even admitted we played our best football of the season when we were "forced" into playing a certain style of football with Paterson and Reid up front! 

I'd like to know why following Paterson's superb run of form in the first few months of the season playing in the hole, LJ moved him out wide and he's not been the same player since!

And now Reid playing LM too.

[Kid in the Riot]

32 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

Half the reason Mitrovic went to Fulham is because he`s Serbian and so is Jokanovic. He said as much when he signed for them.

They were always going to be favourites in that race.

Interesting that LJ seemed to know what the loan fee/wage packet Fulham paid was. Gave the impression we might well have enquired. ..and were quickly put off by the price.

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

And now Reid playing LM too.

Yep. He'll be gone in the summer unfortunately 

[Robin1988]

8 hours ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Agree

Thats abundantly clear , repeated regularly and LJs interview was another reminder

Because I would suggest he’s (SLs) wasted millions on overpaying poor players earlier in his stewardship (We had a reputation in game as a soft touch) and has now decided to play hard ball

Wages are dead money once paid , in theory if you’re recruiting is good , a fee is recoupable,possibly a profit to be made at.a later date

All good theory 

The issue comes with the word IF you’re recruitment is good

I still maintain ours is somewhere between mixed and poor IMHO with a result that instead of wages we will also see the fruition of a lot of wasted fees in coming years - We can only hope the hits make up for the misses

IMHO , in my lifetime of watching the Club (Save a couple of periods when a side was astutely constructed - JJS and SCs spring to mind) our Scouting / recruitment has been poor compared to many clubs and IMHO Doesn’t inspire any degree of confidence at the present time

It all makes perfect sense, although you don't have to agree with its reasoning. High fees go to other clubs, high wages go to players. Which breeds a culture. We saw plenty of players on big money a few years ago, as you say, not giving a toss and getting us relegated with a whimper. They might both be cash values but they're very different in the scheme of things.

Mitrovic is outside of that I think, we just won't sanction £40k a week for anyone.

[redordead1]

2 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Interesting that LJ seemed to know what the loan fee/wage packet Fulham paid was. Gave the impression we might well have enquired. ..and were quickly put off by the price.

Yep. He'll be gone in the summer unfortunately 

Is that last statement a definite? Have you heard something?

[Kid in the Riot]

7 hours ago, redordead1 said:

Is that last statement a definite? Have you heard something?

Bits and bobs, yes. I think the player is willing/keen to move so providing the right bid comes in he'll be gone.

[Gert Mare]

I haven’t listened yet, but I am going to listen a bit later when I have a moment to spare.

I’m really interested to hear what LJ has to say because I do find the capitulations staggering. 

If he is insinuating that his hands are tied then if he has any real ambition then maybe he might be more than tempted in the role at WBA?

At the end of the day why would any manager want to stay at a club and be forced to follow a hardline and take the flack when the plan backfires? The guys entire career and reputation are on the line and these managers can’t expect to be miracle workers?! I think the same applies on the other side of the river with the fake ‘evolution’. Surely Darrell Clarke will want to be testing himself at a higher level?

The thought of players possibly signing “pre-contract” agreements back in the January transfer window could be a bang on reason why they have dropped the ball? It’s just a theory, but a very plausible one all the same. I will be interested to see who goes in the summer and then look back at their form since January.

Although I prefer to air on the side of caution rather than be clap happy I like the way that LJ comes across in interviews and he clearly wants success for this club. 

For me there has to be something in the background that has led to this seasons disappointing end and for me I think it is a mixture of:-

LJ having to adhere to the plan and budget 

Poor scouting of players

Certain players getting their heads turned as a result of the cup run and possibly disrupting the rest of the dressing room

Injuries to players resulting in lack of competition for places.

Loan signings with clauses meaning that they have to play some part regardless of form.

Lack of leadership on the pitch.

Tactical mistakes

Lack of opportunities for fringe players

A lack of ambition by the club

It will all come out in the summer. It has to.

[Mr Popodopolous]

22 minutes ago, Cheesleysmate said:

I haven’t listened yet, but I am going to listen a bit later when I have a moment to spare.

I’m really interested to hear what LJ has to say because I do find the capitulations staggering. 

If he is insinuating that his hands are tied then if he has any real ambition then maybe he might be more than tempted in the role at WBA?

At the end of the day why would any manager want to stay at a club and be forced to follow a hardline and take the flack when the plan backfires? The guys entire career and reputation are on the line and these managers can’t expect to be miracle workers?! I think the same applies on the other side of the river with the fake ‘evolution’. Surely Darrell Clarke will want to be testing himself at a higher level?

The thought of players possibly signing “pre-contract” agreements back in the January transfer window could be a bang on reason why they have dropped the ball? It’s just a theory, but a very plausible one all the same. I will be interested to see who goes in the summer and then look back at their form since January.

Although I prefer to air on the side of caution rather than be clap happy I like the way that LJ comes across in interviews and he clearly wants success for this club. 

For me there has to be something in the background that has led to this seasons disappointing end and for me I think it is a mixture of:-

LJ having to adhere to the plan and budget 

Poor scouting of players

Certain players getting their heads turned as a result of the cup run and possibly disrupting the rest of the dressing room

Injuries to players resulting in lack of competition for places.

Loan signings with clauses meaning that they have to play some part regardless of form.

Lack of leadership on the pitch.

Tactical mistakes

Lack of opportunities for fringe players

A lack of ambition by the club

 It will all come out in the summer. It has to.

FFP...FFP restricts room to manoeuvre because of increasingly draconian penalties for if gambles backfire.

Possible penalties include:

• A fine (talking a hefty fine).
• Maybe a transfer embargo.
• Alternatively, on paper the squad size can now be restricted.

That's at the lighter end though. Because of clubs getting round it, new penalties are:

• The ability to deduct points from a side in breach.
• The ability to say to a side 'You've breached it, therefore you are now in the playoffs instead of top 2'.
• Alternatively, the ability to say to a side in the playoffs 'You've breached it, therefore you're out the playoffs'.
• Maybe even, the ability to say to a side 'You've breached it in a massive way, therefore you're out of the top 6 altogether- even if you won the title'.

That last point is in a sentence, 'Stripping a side of promotion'.

However, people might think 'With financial results coming in the next year, surely if up the worst that can happen is a hefty fine'.

Originally, that was correct. However, the Football League have factored this in- now in addition (and this really becomes a thing in year 3) clubs must submit projected financial results each year, and if there is a breach this enables the ability to give the 2nd tier, the new list of sanctions ranging from points deductions to being kicked from the top 2 to out the playoffs before the end of the season. These are amongst the most stringent financial monitoring regulations in football history (arguably UEFA's FFP would be analysed with a fine tooth comb even more).

Have to factor this in IMO, before knocking LJ or the board.

[Davefevs]

@Mr Popodopolous thanks for that last but one para, was not aware of the projected accounts.

[Mr Popodopolous]

13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@Mr Popodopolous thanks for that last but one para, was not aware of the projected accounts.

Is possibly speculation, but I do recall reading it certainly.

The source seems fairly legit though!

Quote

 

There are a number key changes:

• The assessment is carried out in March (rather than December)
• The maximum loss limit is now £13m per Championship season (or £5m a season of the owner does not inject equity to cover losses).
•  Losses are assessed over three seasons (rather than just over the single, previous season)
• The assessment of each club’s finances is a combination of a historic assessment (looking at figures for the two previous completed season) and an assessment over the season currently taking place

The last point is particularly significant; in addition to historic account information about past seasons, clubs now have to submit a financial projection for the season that is still taking place. All the information has to be with the Football League by the 1 March. The Football League have confirmed that they are aiming to have any punishments announced before the end of the season.

 

[Gert Mare]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

FFP...FFP restricts room to manoeuvre because of increasingly draconian penalties for if gambles backfire.

Possible penalties include:

• A fine (talking a hefty fine).
• Maybe a transfer embargo.
• Alternatively, on paper the squad size can now be restricted.

That's at the lighter end though. Because of clubs getting round it, new penalties are:

• The ability to deduct points from a side in breach.
• The ability to say to a side 'You've breached it, therefore you are now in the playoffs instead of top 2'.
• Alternatively, the ability to say to a side in the playoffs 'You've breached it, therefore you're out the playoffs'.
• Maybe even, the ability to say to a side 'You've breached it in a massive way, therefore you're out of the top 6 altogether- even if you won the title'.

That last point is in a sentence, 'Stripping a side of promotion'.

However, people might think 'With financial results coming in the next year, surely if up the worst that can happen is a hefty fine'.

Originally, that was correct. However, the Football League have factored this in- now in addition (and this really becomes a thing in year 3) clubs must submit projected financial results each year, and if there is a breach this enables the ability to give the 2nd tier, the new list of sanctions ranging from points deductions to being kicked from the top 2 to out the playoffs before the end of the season. These are amongst the most stringent financial monitoring regulations in football history (arguably UEFA's FFP would be analysed with a fine tooth comb even more).

Have to factor this in IMO, before knocking LJ or the board.

Looks like we need to hook up with a super agent then, like Wolves. Neves less than 20k a week! Bargain! 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Cheesleysmate said:

Looks like we need to hook up with a super agent then, like Wolves. Neves less than 20k a week! Bargain! 

Raiola and Mendes are the 2 big fish- sure there's a few more to choose from though! 

[BobBobSuperBob]

1 hour ago, Cheesleysmate said:

Looks like we need to hook up with a super agent then, like Wolves. Neves less than 20k a week! Bargain! 

 

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Raiola and Mendes are the 2 big fish- sure there's a few more to choose from though! 

SL doesn’t like agents , or the fees they demand,  at least

[Gert Mare]

I’ve listened to the interview now. 

“We aren’t in that market” - hmmm. This just clarifies that the long term plan of this club is absolutely set in stone. I guess that is why LJ is pretty safe.

Red or Blue the message is the same, ‘evolution’, however that pans out.

[Lanterne Rouge]

53 minutes ago, Cheesleysmate said:

I’ve listened to the interview now. 

“We aren’t in that market” - hmmm. This just clarifies that the long term plan of this club is absolutely set in stone. I guess that is why LJ is pretty safe.

Red or Blue the message is the same, ‘evolution’, however that pans out.

True but how successful that policy is depends on your starting point on the evolutionary ladder. I would suggest we`re at the equivalent of early man starting to use tools whereas other clubs are more at the struggling out of the primeval slime stage.

[phantom]

2 hours ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

 

SL doesn’t like agents , or the fees they demand,  at least

An increase of £300k - easy to see why

[Gert Mare]

5 hours ago, Red Right Hand said:

True but how successful that policy is depends on your starting point on the evolutionary ladder. I would suggest we`re at the equivalent of early man starting to use tools whereas other clubs are more at the struggling out of the primeval slime stage.

They haven’t even got out of the water onto dry land yet!

[reddoh]

9 hours ago, Cheesleysmate said:

They haven’t even got out of the water onto dry land yet!

we are not that far off. just north of the river at the mem.