Consistency - 2017 vs 2018 Analysis

[BRISTOL86]

Bit too much time on my hands this morning so thought I’d take a look at the oft-lamented topic of consistency (or lack of it). 

Below is a final league table which I’ve split into 2017 (first 25 games of the season) and 2018 (final 21 games of the season). 

It shows the points, and points per game each team took in the two (almost) halves of the season and then looks at the difference between the return over those periods in % terms. 

Consistency Key 

0-15% difference - white

15-30% difference - light green (somewhat better) or light red (somewhat worse)

30%+ difference - dark green (considerably better) or dark red (considerably worse)

Observations

- Two of the most consistent teams in the league went down, with a third only avoiding the same fate minutes from the end of the season. 

- Only one of the league’s most consistent teams finished in the top six. 

- The performance of some of the best improvers (Brum in particular) is skewed by the massive underachievement in 2017 (they were the worst team in the league in 2017); their 2018 PPG is still poor, it was just so bad before that it looks superb. 

- Similarly, the worst decline (ahem....Bristol City) is skewed by the massive overachievement in 2017. Whilst there’s no getting away from our points return over this period being unacceptably low, 5 teams were worse and a couple of others not far behind.

- The sweet spot seems to be a steady start and a late surge. The likes of Villa and Boro made average starts and improved ~ 20% in 2018. Both finished above us despite only two teams in the league having a better 2017. 

Not really tying to prove anything with this, I just found it interesting to see the patterns.

Consistency is often bandied around as the holy grail but consistency is pretty meaningless when you’re consistently crap (Burton, Barnsley, Bolton...). Hull and QPR were among the most consistent sides in the league but both had what they’d call disappointing seasons. Preston’s consistency was remarkable, almost impossibly straight line, yet ultimately not good enough. 

[Coxy27]

Out of interest, why select 25 and 21 games, rather than 23 each side?

[BRISTOL86]

4 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

Out of interest, why select 25 and 21 games, rather than 23 each side?

I could only find the data for 2017 vs 2018 (25/21) readily to hand and was too lazy to put it together myself! 

[reddogkev]

Holy crap that lousy 20 points for us in 2018 looks worse every time you see it.  Has to be one of the most shocking losses of form any team has suffered.

[lenred]

15 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said:

Bit too much time on my hands this morning so thought I’d take a look at the oft-lamented topic of consistency (or lack of it). 

Below is a final league table which I’ve split into 2017 (first 25 games of the season) and 2018 (final 21 games of the season). 

It shows the points, and points per game each team took in the two (almost) halves of the season and then looks at the difference between the return over those periods in % terms. 

Consistency Key 

0-15% difference - white

15-30% difference - light green (somewhat better) or light red (somewhat worse)

30%+ difference - dark green (considerably better) or dark red (considerably worse)

Observations

- Two of the most consistent teams in the league went down, with a third only avoiding the same fate minutes from the end of the season. 

- Only one of the league’s most consistent teams finished in the top six. 

- The performance of some of the best improvers (Brum in particular) is skewed by the massive underachievement in 2017 (they were the worst team in the league in 2017); their 2018 PPG is still poor, it was just so bad before that it looks superb. 

- Similarly, the worst decline (ahem....Bristol City) is skewed by the massive overachievement in 2017. Whilst there’s no getting away from our points return over this period being unacceptably low, 5 teams were worse and a couple of others not far behind.

- The sweet spot seems to be a steady start and a late surge. The likes of Villa and Boro made average starts and improved ~ 20% in 2018. Both finished above us despite only two teams in the league having a better 2017. 

Not really tying to prove anything with this, I just found it interesting to see the patterns.

Consistency is often bandied around as the holy grail but consistency is pretty meaningless when you’re consistently crap (Burton, Barnsley, Bolton...). Hull and QPR were among the most consistent sides in the league but both had what they’d call disappointing seasons. Preston’s consistency was remarkable, almost impossibly straight line, yet ultimately not good enough. 

Not sure people are after that though B. Think it’s a given that when it’s discussed people are wanting a good level of consistency as opposed to a crap one. 

[Kid in the Riot]

21 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said:

Observations

- Similarly, the worst decline (ahem....Bristol City) is skewed by the massive overachievement in 2017. Whilst there’s no getting away from our points return over this period being unacceptably low, 5 teams were worse and a couple of others not far behind.

I think it's little consolation, given 5 of those clubs occupy the bottom 5 according to your table. Just shows what most were saying at the time which was that is was effectively automatic promotion form to relegation form. A 50% decline in consistency is huge! Of the other 3 clubs closest to us, 2 are really basket cases (Reading and Leeds) and Derby at least managed to finish in the play-offs.

4 minutes ago, lenred said:

Not sure people are after that though B. Think it’s a given that when it’s discussed people are wanting a good level of consistency as opposed to a crap one. 

Yes, that had occurred to me too!

[BRISTOL86]

6 minutes ago, lenred said:

Not sure people are after that though B. Think it’s a given that when it’s discussed people are wanting a good level of consistency as opposed to a crap one. 

Haha of course, no one wants us to be consistently crap! Just an observation that consistency in itself isn’t the be all and end all. 

4 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I think it's little consolation, given 5 of those clubs occupy the bottom 5 according to your table. Just shows what most were saying at the time which was that is was effectively automatic promotion form to relegation form. A 50% decline in consistency is huge! Of the other 3 clubs closest to us, 2 are really basket cases (Reading and Leeds) and Derby at least managed to finish in the play-offs.

Absolutely, scant consolation. But my point was more around how much worse our under achievement in 2018 looks laid out on paper as a direct result of how much we over achieved in 2017. 

For example had we taken 1.3PPG in 2017 which would have been a reasonable if unspectacular return across a whole season then the decline is only just over 25%. When you look at the margin in isolation you look worse for having done better if that makes sense. 

Same way Brum finished the season looking like one of the great improvers, largely down to how awful they were in 2017. 

Not trying to prove or disprove anything with this analysis, just found it interesting. Certainly not trying to suggest our 2018 was anything other than woeful!

[Davefevs]

Interesting stuff @BRISTOL86, thanks.

Just shows that whilst 2018 wasn’t relegation form in itself, it was relegation battle form.

I guess it does highlight that a season is 46 games and I’ve often said it doesn’t matter who you get the points against, you’ve just got to get points. You’ll always drop points against sides you don’t expect to, and vice-versa.  In 2017 I thought we were tough to beat, in 2018 we started losing those games - Reading away was 1 point turned into 3, had it been played in 2018 it would possibly have been zero points.

[BRISTOL86]

4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Interesting stuff @BRISTOL86, thanks.

Just shows that whilst 2018 wasn’t relegation form in itself, it was relegation battle form.

I guess it does highlight that a season is 46 games and I’ve often said it doesn’t matter who you get the points against, you’ve just got to get points. You’ll always drop points against sides you don’t expect to, and vice-versa.  In 2017 I thought we were tough to beat, in 2018 we started losing those games - Reading away was 1 point turned into 3, had it been played in 2018 it would possibly have been zero points.

Yep, similarly Leeds away, Sunderland at home, Sheff U at home would have all been 3 points in 2017 you’d think. Small margins. 

What I did find interesting is that only Wolves took more than 2 points a game in 2017 whereas 4 teams took that or more in 2018 (and Wolves weren’t one of them!)

[BS4 on Tour...]

So in 2018 we amassed less points than Bolton and the same number as Burton... they finished 21st and 23rd respectively....

[BRISTOL86]

4 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

So in 2018 we amassed less points than Bolton and the same number as Burton... they finished 21st and 23rd respectively....

Indeed. Surprisingly it wasn’t actually relegation form. But about as close as you’d ever want to get to it!

[cidered abroad]

Lies, damn lies and statistics! 

A lot of work to prove we were crap in the league in 2018. Most of us, apart from a select few who are determined to ignore the facts, already knew that. 

[BRISTOL86]

13 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

Lies, damn lies and statistics! 

A lot of work to prove we were crap in the league in 2018. Most of us, apart from a select few who are determined to ignore the facts, already knew that. 

I was interested in other teams as well as just us mate. I didn’t need this to tell us we were crap this year! 

[BTRFTG]

So we started well, finished like a brick and ended up just about where many of us thought we belonged all season which was mid-table stiffs.

Now if you'd correlated what actions teams took near your arbitrary division point we'd have a better understanding of why the season panned out as it did. Did January investment make a difference and, if it did, just what form did that need to take.

That way we'd be able to better understand whether we were an average side massively ( and thankfully) overperforming, or whether we are half decent and woefully underperformed (again) in the second half? 

[BRISTOL86]

17 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

So we started well, finished like a brick and ended up just about where many of us thought we belonged all season which was mid-table stiffs.

Now if you'd correlated what actions teams took near your arbitrary division point we'd have a better understanding of why the season panned out as it did. Did January investment make a difference and, if it did, just what form did that need to take.

That way we'd be able to better understand whether we were an average side massively ( and thankfully) overperforming, or whether we are half decent and woefully underperformed (again) in the second half? 

I said I had a bit of time on my hands, not all week  

FWIW, and this is hardly groundbreaking insight here, my opinion is that we both massively overachieved and underachieved. Nearly 2 PPG in 2017 was a remarkable out turn from such an average squad whereas below 1 PPG in 2018 was clearly grossly below the standard that the squad could and should be expected to achieve. 

I think our overall of around 1.5 is about where we should have been based on squad quality alone. That’s not to say we shouldn’t have done better, given our start, nor is it designed to excuse or explain the performance since the turn of the year. 

[BTRFTG]

1 hour ago, Monkeh said:

he had the talent to earn 80k a week and play in the champions league according to Wenger, he just didn't have the attitude to suit

I forget who said: "winners embrace hard work, losers see it as punishment," but in the case of JET and whilst he possessed God given skill, he would never have earned that money or played Champions League as, well,  he just didn't possess the attributes needed, if which talent is but one component. The point I made was, given the quality of his lifestyle, who are we to criticise? There are no pockets in shrouds and I sure as hell don't see JET thinking he's missed out on the better things in life. Good luck to him.

[BRISTOL86]

1 hour ago, BTRFTG said:

I forget who said: "winners embrace hard work, losers see it as punishment," but in the case of JET and whilst he possessed God given skill, he would never have earned that money or played Champions League as, well,  he just didn't possess the attributes needed, if which talent is but one component. The point I made was, given the quality of his lifestyle, who are we to criticise? There are no pockets in shrouds and I sure as hell don't see JET thinking he's missed out on the better things in life. Good luck to him.

I think you might be in the wrong thread old chap!

[cidered abroad]

5 hours ago, BRISTOL86 said:

I was interested in other teams as well as just us mate. I didn’t need this to tell us we were crap this year! 

Wasn't trying to be smart or sarcastic so sorry if offended. There's only one statistic for the second half of last season and that is the pathetic points gained from the Wolves match onwards. 

[BRISTOL86]

2 hours ago, cidered abroad said:

Wasn't trying to be smart or sarcastic so sorry if offended. There's only one statistic for the second half of last season and that is the pathetic points gained from the Wolves match onwards. 

No offence here mate, and I don’t disagree! 

[cidercity1987]

Preston seemed like the most consistent team in the league by far and would have easily made the top 6 if it wasn't for a horrendous injury crisis in October / November

[BCFC_Dan]

I'm not generally negative but this worried me when I saw it:

What it shows is that in 16/17 when we fell away horribly our general performances were mediocre (expected gd around 0) but our actual results were horrible. That suggested that eventually we'd return to being at least mediocre. In 17/18 however, whilst we were better for longer, the second half saw us produce terrible underlying performances and actually overachieve against that.

There's a lot more to it than just one chart but it suggests that the issue will not simply go away on its own. Something needs to be addressed. Hopefully it will be.

 

[BRISTOL86]

31 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said:

I'm not generally negative but this worried me when I saw it:

What it shows is that in 16/17 when we fell away horribly our general performances were mediocre (expected gd around 0) but our actual results were horrible. That suggested that eventually we'd return to being at least mediocre. In 17/18 however, whilst we were better for longer, the second half saw us produce terrible underlying performances and actually overachieve against that.

There's a lot more to it than just one chart but it suggests that the issue will not simply go away on its own. Something needs to be addressed. Hopefully it will be.

 

Defence. Mediocre full backs and the fact we don’t have a defensive midfielder.

Offensive players were let down horrendously by defensive ones in 2018. 

[SteelCityRobin]

1 hour ago, BCFC_Dan said:

I'm not generally negative but this worried me when I saw it:

What it shows is that in 16/17 when we fell away horribly our general performances were mediocre (expected gd around 0) but our actual results were horrible. That suggested that eventually we'd return to being at least mediocre. In 17/18 however, whilst we were better for longer, the second half saw us produce terrible underlying performances and actually overachieve against that.

There's a lot more to it than just one chart but it suggests that the issue will not simply go away on its own. Something needs to be addressed. Hopefully it will be.

 

Am I right in saying that the start of the rapid drop in the middle of the latest season are the wolves home and villa away games?

If so it seems that the team never recovered mentally and physically after those games...

[pillred]

On ‎13‎/‎06‎/‎2018 at 10:04, reddogkev said:

Holy crap that lousy 20 points for us in 2018 looks worse every time you see it.  Has to be one of the most shocking losses of form any team has suffered.

and it had to be us.

[Rich_s]

Probably a range of reasons why our form has dipped dramatically for two seasons. I believe one of the reasons is we have a good plan A but not sure what the plan B is and end up blindly tinkering and dropping points. It could be lack of depth in the squad being highlighted when injuries occur? Mental toughness? It's two seasons now when we've witnessed terrible run of form in the 2nd half. It's and odd one.