The Championship FFP Thread (Merged)

[AnAstonVillafan]

14 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Okay thank you and tbh it is new to most PL fans as it's mainly been properly enforced at EFL level in recent times. Everton moderate restrictions was the first rumblings but nothing much else..there are UEFA ones I guess for clubs who qualify for Europe.

It is an impressive upsurge. All told I used to have quite warm views towards Aston Villa- when O'Neill and a lot of his side were English up at the top end I thought "that's punching above- impressive". It is still exceeding expectations but feels more slick now but maybe the gap is also bigger. 

Ah now the Man City stuff, they have finally been charged at long last but it seems to be moving at glacial pace, a sand timer. The Hearing is next Autumn.

Chelsea may have historic alleged breaches, still being investigated but could be charging towards failing the PL Upper Loss limit at the end of this season. Man United I wonder about their PL Upper Loss Limit compliance to this season.

Arsenal reportedly a bit restricted, even heard Tottenham and P&S but I've looked at their enormous deprecation for the stadium and I dunno whether the analysis is correct in that context.

All 4 appear to be presently compliant albeit I wonder a bit about the Lower UEFA limit for Newcastle and post this season Aston Villa maybe maybe not.

To be fair I actually in general find it a bit mind boggling that any PL perennial with all that money, undoubted good add-backs from strong infrastructure depreciation, a Cat 1 Academy and all those costs we can exempt and Community could seriously threaten the Upper Loss limit.

It is a great money pit much of the modern game.

I get it on one level but there can also be a satisfaction to getting up there with less or via clever recruitment. How sustainable Idk.

It can also come in quite handy for owners who don't want to spend. Mike Ashley was quite keen I imagine  Possibly Gold and Sullivan at times- Benham if he can keep Brentford at PL for a while longer on their likely cost base perhaps he will begin to repay his loans to himself.

I actually think the intention of FFP is a good and noble one but it is not enforced correctly. The gap between the PL and EFL is too large. I'm not sure how that can be fixed. Parachute Payments are a good thing but it needs a little tweak. Maybe reduce the figure or reduce the number of years.

Villa's recent success in mostly down to an astute, driven, coach.  We need to get to a position where The Emery's Klopp's Iraola's and De Zerbi's and McKenna's can do what they do best and improve teams on the training pitch rather than in he transfer market.

I'm also fascinated as to how Ipswich, Sunderland, Hull and Coventry seem to progress without Parachute Payments while Watford, Norwich, Stoke and Huddersfield struggle with them although I understand that Huddersfield's old owner paid off loans owed to himself.

Man City ? Terrible. But nothing will happen to them, the Abu Dhabi's will not be put in any jeopardy and the Government will see to that.

[Mr Popodopolous]

28 minutes ago, AnAstonVillafan said:

I actually think the intention of FFP is a good and noble one but it is not enforced correctly. The gap between the PL and EFL is too large. I'm not sure how that can be fixed. Parachute Payments are a good thing but it needs a little tweak. Maybe reduce the figure or reduce the number of years.

Villa's recent success in mostly down to an astute, driven, coach.  We need to get to a position where The Emery's Klopp's Iraola's and De Zerbi's and McKenna's can do what they do best and improve teams on the training pitch rather than in he transfer market.

I'm also fascinated as to how Ipswich, Sunderland, Hull and Coventry seem to progress without Parachute Payments while Watford, Norwich, Stoke and Huddersfield struggle with them although I understand that Huddersfield's old owner paid off loans owed to himself.

Man City ? Terrible. But nothing will happen to them, the Abu Dhabi's will not be put in any jeopardy and the Government will see to that.

 

Agree with much of that tbh but more could be done on the Parachute gap. Perhaps Pool Parachute and Solidarity given they are both PL distributions and weight by division as the EFL do currently for T.V. and would have to come in line with more real time, perhaps even forward looking regulation to preserve solvency.

Which to be fair, is what the EFL executive want, whether the clubs want it..well that's anyone's guess.

Those 4 are different cases. Ipswich seem to have made a blistering start and harnessed momentum with a decent but not amazing squad. Injuries have been low which helps with continuity.

Sunderland big club, better run now- although lacking a focal point up front (last year they had Stewart when fit, plus Simms for half a season, Geldhardt on loan replacing him) and sacking Mowbray aside, can rise again.

Hull were in and out of PL and Parachute system but Allams ran an extremely tight, parsimonious ship. Fair bit of headroom and KLP sale for £20m assisted greatly. Reckon they have 18 months to get up before FFP could bite.

Coventry have spent this year but Mark Robins has in difficult circs across multiple grounds taken them back up through the divisions, impressive.

Stoke now 3rd year post Parachutes but certainly spent a lot owing to inherited position and tbh 2018-19. Norwich could run aground if they don't go up, their self-financing model..An aggregated £50m in pre-tax losses across 2 seasons, PL and then Year 1 post relegation Year 1 Parachute is a drastic departure. Watford seem an unpredictable side but yeah underachieving. Huddersfield as you say linked to owners.

[Mr Popodopolous]

One more bit to add, @AnAstonVillafan

PSG. I'm convinced they've got off lightly in 2021-22, rules changed very very handily.

Thereafter did they fall within a reset breakeven amount..doubtful!

This year yes some major sales but they spent €300m in fees this summer. Have tried to crunch some numbers but even if compliant to this, there was book value on remaining sales and the starting point was a €375.4m loss before tax in 2021-22, €401.4m before transfer profits.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Stoke snippet of Bet365 accounts.

 

Remember is late March 2022 to late March 2023 give of take..their administrative expenses seem rather low. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Some West Bromwich Albion takes on FFP are bizarre.

For a start, Fixed Asset Profits or Losses are excluded from P&S numbers these days.

Secondly I'm quite sure is not excluded from P&S.

Some of this chain of messages is barely intelligible, certainly in an FFP sense.

[Mr Popodopolous]

[Mr Popodopolous]

In layman's, due to the fiddle even if a Fair Market Value fiddle done by clubs between 2018 and 2021, clubs can do this all they like but it no longer counts towards FFP even an actual disposal. Let alone a sale and leaseback.

Actually it was available from June, July 2016 but club a only really did it or looked at it in Spring 2018.

It also makes a lot of sense because if expenditure on Fixed Assets and Depreciation of Fixed Assets is rightly excluded from losses, why should a sale profit be included.

Cash flow fine, why not.

In layman's..

Your FFP loss doing into a summer is £49m after allowables, £10m above the limit and you're forecast to lose £15m the next year too and the year after that.

Say..

-£12m, -£16m, -£21m=-£49m.

You look to sell Fixed Assets of x for a profit of say £15m. Book Value £15m, sale Value £30m thereby profit £15m.

This becomes in the accounts..

-£12m, -£16m, -£6m=-£34m. Saved!

Next year, -£16m, -£6m, -£15m plus rent of say £1.2m makes it -£16.2m for Year 3.

-£38.4m, tight but compliant!

-£6m, -£16.2m and-£16.2m..again tight but compliant!!

Except FFP now once more expressly excluded that, back to fail and the underlying small fails in the subsequent 2 years. Maybe no rent to offset, reset of the -£21m to £13m but the profit is literally adjusted out of, expressly excluded from the calculations.

Edited January 8 by Mr Popodopolous

[Rob26]

On 05/01/2024 at 20:47, AnAstonVillafan said:

Man City ? Terrible. But nothing will happen to them, the Abu Dhabi's will not be put in any jeopardy and the Government will see to that.

 

not to mention most of the deception points require a crazy amount of evidence to back up, they don't have the evidence to make them stack up to the higher level the panel will require. it's already fell through with uefa, can it going exactly the same way, man city either win or end up with a fine so the bpl can say they did something.

always seemed to me that when the goverment decided they wanted to get into regulation of the sport that this was done straight away because of the governments special relationship with the state

i've no doubt they have broke ffp. but have no doubt they have probs covered their asses legally, the court it was with for uefa was much easier to win

On 08/01/2024 at 12:14, Mr Popodopolous said:

Stoke snippet of Bet365 accounts.

 

Remember is late March 2022 to late March 2023 give of take..their administrative expenses seem rather low. 

they probs forgot to claim 50m this year due to covid :laugh:

[Mr Popodopolous]

https://www.sportbible.com/football/june-30th-financial-fair-play-deadline-football-explained-158389-20230630

With this in mind, from summer 2023 I just don't see a sensible FFP argument for Brennan Johnson sale to be rowed back into 2022-23.

Accounts end June 30th, it seems to be some sort of FFP deadline across the board and Nottingham Forest sold on 1st September 2023.

It could be a mitigating factor to reduce a punishment but I don't see any good reason if Nottingham Forest are reliant on it, for inclusion in the prior accounting period.

It would give them more headroom moving forward if in 2023-24 too.

[Mr Popodopolous]

One more bit.

If West Bromwich Albion are taken over, Percy said it was imperative that they were in November, there could be scope for an unusual boost to Profit and Loss.

Basically it depends but there was £7,054,000 impaired in the 2021-22 in bad debts or doubtful debt, this was the amount due from the owner back to the club. Lai or his business borrowed.

Could new owners reverse this and I assume that if it added to their FFP loss in 2021-22, the inverse the reversal would offset a part of the likely large losses this or next year.

Edited January 9 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

We still haven’t submitted our accounts to CH.

[Mr Popodopolous]

That's disappointing given we clearly have the numbers and have submitted the consolidated on our site.

Of more interest of course is the disaggregation into Ashton Gate Limited and Bristol City Football Club Limited. Divide by 13 and x 12 will account for some but by no means all.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Leicester FFP. Some extrapolations, I often revise my extrapolations.

What we know

2021-22

-£92.4m pre tax loss

Less probably £25m in FFP.

£1.36m in Covid losses. Not my estimate but that of the club in their own accounts.

Less £17,000 in loss on Disposal of Fixed Assets.

Transfer Profit will be up, Interest payments probably down but European and TV revenue alone down £20-30m probably all-in.

Sacking Rodgers adds some cost. Not a huge amount but some. Smith obviously would've been on lower wages, Maresca too.

You could quite plausibly be looking at a pre tax loss of £40-50m for last season.

13 months accounts too, extra costs as we know but maybe a bit more income too. Who knows.

I'm being quite conservative with some of my estimates.

Estimated fee minus

2022-23

Fofana- £70m fee less remaining Book Value £19.09m less 15% sell on to St Etienne (Leicester signed him for £30m and sold him for £70m so lop off another £6m say). £44.91m gain on Disposal.

Maddison- £40m fee less £3.6m remaining book value of £3.6m less 15% sell on to Norwich if the profit on the £24m Leicester got him for, another £2.4m.

Kasper Schmeichel went for £1m I think, fully amortised no sell on.

£79.91m or thereabouts.

This is the thing Leicester seem to have been pretty honest to date but the numbers make me wonder.

We also cannot deny the notable sales and departures both in quality of player and quantity of profit on Disposal.

2023-24

Barnes- £39m- Pure profit.

Castagne- £15m, less remaining Book Value £8.8m. No sell on clause therefore profit on Disposal £8.2m.

Hirst- £1.5m, probably pure profit. No sell on? Let's say not.

Krkstansen loan fee, reported £0.86m.

Could you say Iversen and Soumare £1.5-2m between them, any other offers?

£52.06-52.56m aggregated maybe.

Some of my estimates ate generous and conservative. A peak income fall will probably be £100m minimum ie from 2021-22 to now.

2021-22 to 2022-23 £30-40m? You subtract European revenue and then price money as a gap between finishing 8th and then 18th.

A 50% fall in wages across the board would help but that is towards the Upper end IMO.

That fall even maybe includes Faes, Souttar joining. Then Coady, Winks, Mavdidi Cannon and assorted others on loan.

Perhaps 50% just is too high given the additions.

Edited January 10 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Other insight, other offers most welcome. I'm struggling to align them to £83m plus Allowables.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Oh yes forgot Luke Thomas another £1m in loan fee. Sheffield United, that is receivable.

Loan fees paid out, reports suggested Doyle, Akgun and Fatawu came to a cumulative £1.5-2m.

Maybe one for Tete in 2022-23 too.

Edited January 10 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Interesting here.

Found the PL P&S/PSR form and it seems not to exclude costs of Promotion or Promotion Bonuses.

If Nottingham Forest fall foul and Promotion Bonuses are a factor or deemed too high..how many others would retrospectively fall could post the 3 year rule?? A lot I expect!

There is nothing about Promotion Bonuses or costs.

It also makes me wonder with the fast track system if a club could call foul of T and be referred ie literally the existing season. T means right now basically.

Maybe thst is why Wolves were so desperate in the summer..they're fine now btw.

There is also nothing in the brief PL P&S section about Profit on Disposal of Fixed Assets. Whereas as we know at our level..

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Interesting here.

Found the PL P&S/PSR form and it seems not to exclude costs of Promotion or Promotion Bonuses.

If Nottingham Forest fall foul and Promotion Bonuses are a factor or deemed too high..how many others would retrospectively fall could post the 3 year rule?? A lot I expect!

There is nothing about Promotion Bonuses or costs.

It also makes me wonder with the fast track system if a club could call foul of T and be referred ie literally the existing season. T means right now basically.

Maybe thst is why Wolves were so desperate in the summer..they're fine now btw.

There is also nothing in the brief PL P&S section about Profit on Disposal of Fixed Assets. Whereas as we know at our level..

Excluding Promotion bonuses haven’t been in any set of rules for ages from memory.  Although Kieran Maguire once referenced some unpublished document that showed they could be exempt.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, Davefevs said:

Excluding Promotion bonuses haven’t been in any set of rules for ages from memory.  Although Kieran Maguire once referenced some unpublished document that showed they could be exempt.

 

Thanks. They should really be exempt, perhaps analysed closely for trying to game the system but if realistically stated they are only triggered in the event of Promotion.

I'm not fully sure how Nottingham Forest fail if fully exempt, my bigger issue was to the 2021-22 season tbh. Maybe the wage bill sky rocketed last year but then TV revenue alone up £100m probably.

Downward Covid adjustments or challenge to the 2021-22 £12m in isolation bit perhaps.

If they aren't exempt Fulham and Bournemouth should be back under the microscope, to this and last season. Aston Villa would also have failed, Wolves probably, Leeds I expect but the Covid issue blurs matters.

[Mr Popodopolous]

A valid moan or clutching?

Fwiw, Simon Jordan seems to think Nottingham Forest in particular and all the clubs in general will be fine with FFP but this post- valid or clutching? I'd go for the latter,  Nottingham Forest could always have extended their Reporting Period for one.

[Davefevs]

31 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

A valid moan or clutching?

Fwiw, Simon Jordan seems to think Nottingham Forest in particular and all the clubs in general will be fine with FFP but this post- valid or clutching? I'd go for the latter,  Nottingham Forest could always have extended their Reporting Period for one.

Haha, blame FFP for something that is Forest’s decision!

I suspect City’s move to 30th June was linked in part to football contract end dates….and keeping things tidy.

[Hxj]

31 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

A valid moan or clutching?

It's because it is the simplest end date.

As I understand it, there is (or was) a degree of flexibility around transfers out and replacement transfers in that happened either side of an accounting date. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

Haha, blame FFP for something that is Forest’s decision!

I suspect City’s move to 30th June was linked in part to football contract end dates….and keeping things tidy.

Agreed. Seems to me as if and I still am not wholly convinced the Upper Loss limit has been missed and if Nottingham Forest, why are Bournemouth and Fulham not in a similar boat, but if they are reliant on the Johnson defence..It feels tenuous.

I expect so too.

2 minutes ago, Hxj said:

It's because it is the simplest end date.

Agreed.

3 minutes ago, Hxj said:

As I understand it, there is (or was) a degree of flexibility around transfers out and replacement transfers in that happened either side of an accounting date. 

If there was a binding agreement with Tottenham even if no price set or some minimum price then maybe, but generally surely a deadline must be firm or it can badly dilute matters moving forward.

The Sheffield Wednesday case feels one example,but the Che Adams case another.

[Mr Popodopolous]

In among the Stoke stuff I couldn't be bothered but scanned the Bet365 accounts again.

They themselves lost £72.597m in the last financial year?? Pre tax.

They have accumulated Profit of £2.5bn minimum so don't get out the begging bowls yet, nor do I expect it to be a trend rather than blip plus there are probably some once off or paper losses but it is still a surprise.

[View from the Dolman]

On 09/01/2024 at 19:09, Davefevs said:

We still haven’t submitted our accounts to CH.

Accounts for a number of the network of companies have now been submitted...

• BRISTOL CITY WOMEN FOOTBALL CLUB LIMITED
• BRISTOL FLYERS LIMITED
• BRISTOL SPORT LIMITED
• ESTEBAN INVESTMENTS LIMITED

[Mr Popodopolous]

I will continue with my Leicester enquiries. I've asked Kieran Maguire to have a look but nothing yet.

As of 2021-22, there were some of the following key figures- we've already seen the £92.4m loss, the Profit on Disposal etc.

2021-22- Player Related

As we can see, £72.2m in Player Amortisation and Impairment of £2.593m.

Remaining Book Value at the end of 2021-22 £162.380m.

I assume a loan fee of Lookman, that won't be repeated. €5m was cited, £4.3m which removes some £4.305m of amortisation and £12593m in Impairment. Nobody else of significant Book Value left.

Otoh inbound..

Faes- £15m/5

Souttar- £15m/5.5

Kristansen- £12m/5.5

£42m in Book Additions.

5 years, 5.5 years, 5.5 years.

You add £3m, £1.36m, £1.09m to the amortisation cost.

Reports suggested a loan fee for Tete. One site said €1m (£0.861m), another said £3m loan fee. Idk.

Point is the amortisation measured on a 12 month basis seems similar. Possibly even the amortisation gap less Impairment.

I made an estimate of a £10m wage bill fall but is that a bit optimistic? Could genuinely be in the £5-10m range.

Revenue fall, £30m and maybe even £40m in TV and Prize alone when we consider European revenue disappearing plus 10 places down in Prize money.

There were 7 less games at the KP albeit there will be some cost savings there too.

Suppose Concerts, Trade Shows etc will have risen post Covid but there can come with costs too.

Compensation from Everton or even the PL could be but there has been nothing about a Settlement in the media, let alone an award.

[Mr Popodopolous]

One major thing I had forgotten too.

Along with a lot of clubs, Leicester were taking out a claim vs their insurer(s), Allianz especially were mentioned.

This could be a factor albeit one report after some digging said set to be heard in 2025 for clubs and their accounts for this season are set to run until end of June 2024.

We have a few Leicester fans on here- what am I missing here. Insurance, Everton compensation?

I'm trying to square the likely circle, being quite generous with certain estimates, believe your Academy expenditure £15m per season as well as the known FFP exclusions and still I can't square it.

Edited January 11 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

£35m + £35m + £13m=£83m

+ (Estimated) £25m + £25m + £25m=£75m.

£1.4m in Club stated Covid losses for 2021-22.

£158m in likely usual and £1.4m for club stated Covid giving a  possible maximum gross loss of £159.4m.

Minus

2021-22..-£92.4m

Despite European revenue,8th place finish and £9m in Profit on Disposal of Players.

Leaving £67m in 2 years inclusive of allowables.

[ExiledAjax]

Assorted group accounts have been uploaded to CH overnight.

10 hours ago, View from the Dolman said:

Accounts for a number of the network of companies have now been submitted...

• BRISTOL CITY WOMEN FOOTBALL CLUB LIMITED
• BRISTOL FLYERS LIMITED
• BRISTOL SPORT LIMITED
• ESTEBAN INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Ashton Gate is up as well now.

I assume BCFC Ltd will come later today.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Could be a bluff, could be a negotiating ploy or similar but interesting comment by Maresca. Could be dated.

Still think they could be close if not over limits to this year.

Edited January 11 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Newcastle must be quite close as well.

https://theathletic.com/5195041/2024/01/11/newcastle-ffp-accounts-losses/

Whether their accounts have been published IDK but they lost £73m last season.

The Mike Ashley headroom has gone now.

By which I mean his parsimonious ways gave space for rich investors to make a push but from 2021-22...January 2022, Saudi spending.

Revenues have risen too, of course they have but so have losses.

After this season Covid losses and the Mike Ashley austerity will be out of the reckoning entirely.

Edited January 11 by Mr Popodopolous