Diedhiou contract

[marcofisher]

20 hours ago, BOSRed said:

Wages will still be a big thing and Fam being one of our higher earners balances the books somewhat when it comes to wages. Williams, Martin, brunt, Mawson and sessegnon can’t be cheap when it comes to wages

He hasn’t only made 14 appearances for Fulham after coming through their youth team...can’t  imagine he is on a super contract and that we are paying all of it if so? 

[Phileas Fogg]

21 hours ago, BOSRed said:

Wages will still be a big thing and Fam being one of our higher earners balances the books somewhat when it comes to wages. Williams, Martin, brunt, Mawson and sessegnon can’t be cheap when it comes to wages

Between them they'll be on good money but remember we're also not paying wages for the likes of Benkovic, Afobe, Pereira etc. 

[mozo]

12 hours ago, Davefevs said:

France got some money by the sounds of it.  

Rennes have some Euros to chuck around because they've got Champions League football (their 1st time?), and are also sitting on the Camavinga goldmine which will doubtless be plundered next summer, unless that is the Covid austerity situation continues.

That would be an incredible move for Fam, but as far as far know they play one up top and have a few options for that role already. They haven't been linked with him but the kind of step up that he might be hoping for.

[Fatalist]

13 hours ago, westex red said:

Don't want Fam to leave, would have to replace him with a striker and a top defender, he fills both rolls!!

Didn't know he had to make the picnic lunches as well!

[IAmNick]

I'm very conflicted with Fam. I love him, he seems like a great guy and just the kind of person we want at our club. On the pitch I'm also a big fan and think he's done very well, and been very consistent since he joined playing all kinds of roles and with all kinds of formations and people around him.

However I also don't want us to hang on to players just because they're good if they don't fit the system - and I don't want us to start messing with a system (assuming we finally have one) to fit in individuals. I'm not so sure how Fam fits in with our other options up front, given that him and Wells doesn't seem to be as good together as we'd like.

In hindsight, I think Wells was a mistake. That's probably not a popular opinion but I'd rather have Fam +1 up front then Wells + 1 based on what I've seen so far, not to mention Fam is three years younger.

If the rumoured fees of €6m or so are true I think that's low - I know he only has a year left, but a consistent 12-15 goals every year in our goal shy team coupled with the defensive side isn't something to be sniffed at and very good value at that amount I think.

I'll be very sad when he leaves and think it'll be a mistake.

[Phileas Fogg]

12 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

I'm very conflicted with Fam. I love him, he seems like a great guy and just the kind of person we want at our club. On the pitch I'm also a big fan and think he's done very well, and been very consistent since he joined playing all kinds of roles and with all kinds of formations and people around him.

However I also don't want us to hang on to players just because they're good if they don't fit the system - and I don't want us to start messing with a system (assuming we finally have one) to fit in individuals. I'm not so sure how Fam fits in with our other options up front, given that him and Wells doesn't seem to be as good together as we'd like.

In hindsight, I think Wells was a mistake. That's probably not a popular opinion but I'd rather have Fam +1 up front then Wells + 1 based on what I've seen so far, not to mention Fam is three years younger.

If the rumoured fees of €6m or so are true I think that's low - I know he only has a year left, but a consistent 12-15 goals every year in our goal shy team coupled with the defensive side isn't something to be sniffed at and very good value at that amount I think.

I'll be very sad when he leaves and think it'll be a mistake.

I agree with everything you say apart from the point about Wells. If he stays fit, I'm confident that Wells has a good chance of being in the top 3 scorers in this division.

He's an instinctive natural goalscorer and ultimately will win us more matches than Diedhiou in my opinion.

[INCRED]

44 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I agree with everything you say apart from the point about Wells. If he stays fit, I'm confident that Wells has a good chance of being in the top 3 scorers in this division.

He's an instinctive natural goalscorer and ultimately will win us more matches than Diedhiou in my opinion.

Agree, Wells is a natural goal scorer and if we intend to play a more attacking style and create more chances then he will get his 20+ goals a season

Fam isn’t nowhere near as deadly in front of goal but is good for 10 -15 goals a season 

I would like to see both of them as our first choice frontmen and give them both time to gel under DHs approach but if I had a choice I would definitely keep Wells and a n other

[IAmNick]

1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I agree with everything you say apart from the point about Wells. If he stays fit, I'm confident that Wells has a good chance of being in the top 3 scorers in this division.

He's an instinctive natural goalscorer and ultimately will win us more matches than Diedhiou in my opinion.

 

59 minutes ago, INCRED said:

Agree, Wells is a natural goal scorer and if we intend to play a more attacking style and create more chances then he will get his 20+ goals a season

Fam isn’t nowhere near as deadly in front of goal but is good for 10 -15 goals a season 

Yeah fair comments. I thought twice when I wrote that.

On him being a natural goalscorer / instinctive it's a tough one, his record is reasonable but not great, perhaps obviously or he wouldn't be here! Last year was a great season for him and if he'd kept up his form (or we'd kept up the service?) here that he had at QPR he'd have hit 20 comfortably. He's been decent/good but not great before that though. 2015-16 he got 17 in 44 apps so getting to the 20 goal benchmark but that's kind of it. 7 in 40, 10 in 43, and 11 in 35 were his other recent Championship seasons - less than Fam.

Watching him in the last game he had two great chances he missed, which Fam would be getting stick for. Perhaps just rusty, I'm certainly not judging him or saying he's not good enough! I think he's a good player.

But given that, is he scoring the same / less goals than Fam, but also providing less elsewhere? Maybe that's too simplistic a view, you could argue he will contribute more to general attacking play.

I hope I'm wrong and he smashes it this year, especially if we can play to his strengths which unfortunately doesn't seem to be alongside Fam.

[Davefevs]

Here’s a chart showing goals per 90 versus xG per 90.  Above the line shows players who score more goals than the chance of scoring (no need for an xG debate here though).  Below the line, those that don’t.

I’ve split each player relative to their club, so you can see Nahki Wells in a City shirt and QPR.  Size of square equates to number of goals.  Also includes players on loan, so you can see how they performed too, e.g. Jonny Smith.

Interesting how Wells is not as productive with us as with QPR.

 

[mozo]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s a chart showing goals per 90 versus xG per 90.  Above the line shows players who score more goals than the chance of scoring (no need for an xG debate here though).  Below the line, those that don’t.

I’ve split each player relative to their club, so you can see Nahki Wells in a City shirt and QPR.  Size of square equates to number of goals.  Also includes players on loan, so you can see how they performed too, e.g. Jonny Smith.

Interesting how Wells is not as productive with us as with QPR.

 

Thanks for sharing Fevs. Sometimes the stats completely back up our intuitions!

[Mr Popodopolous]

Perhaps QPR set up in a way that suited him more than under LJ.

.Another factor to consider might be that he played with QPR (I think) in 2018/19 and then half a season in 2019/20- some good continuity, whereas with us- new club, new style (whatever that was under LJ)! His goals/game ratio shot up post June return IIRC. Improved anyway- have a feeling Holden's setup will be more to his liking than LJ's was.

That and the basic benefit of a proper continuity, pre-season etc.

[Davefevs]

6 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Perhaps QPR set up in a way that suited him more than under LJ.

.Another factor to consider might be that he played with QPR (I think) in 2018/19 and then half a season in 2019/20- some good continuity, whereas with us- new club, new style (whatever that was under LJ)! His goals/game ratio shot up post June return IIRC. Improved anyway- have a feeling Holden's setup will be more to his liking than LJ's was.

 

[IAmNick]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Here’s a chart showing goals per 90 versus xG per 90.  Above the line shows players who score more goals than the chance of scoring (no need for an xG debate here though).  Below the line, those that don’t.

I’ve split each player relative to their club, so you can see Nahki Wells in a City shirt and QPR.  Size of square equates to number of goals.  Also includes players on loan, so you can see how they performed too, e.g. Jonny Smith.

Interesting how Wells is not as productive with us as with QPR.

 

Interesting. So the question that comes to me is: Was Wells over-performing relative to his history with QPR and has now regressed to his standard? Or have we not played to his strengths and are inhibiting him and should be trying to get him back to that standard?

If so was it more a case of QPR doing something right than us now doing something wrong? Or perhaps it was just a purple patch?

Do you have the data from his last few seasons we could plot? Then we can see if QPR last season, or us are the outlier. Being that far above your xG is probably not sustainable in my opinion.

My assumption from looking at his history is last year was a very good few months, but that's the exception rather than the norm and we shouldn't expect it to continue.

 

[LondonBristolian]

16 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

Interesting. So the question that comes to me is: Was Wells over-performing relative to his history with QPR and has now regressed to his standard? Or have we not played to his strengths and are inhibiting him and should be trying to get him back to that standard?

If so was it more a case of QPR doing something right than us now doing something wrong? Or perhaps it was just a purple patch?

Do you have the data from his last few seasons we could plot? Then we can see if QPR last season, or us are the outlier. Being that far above your xG is probably not sustainable in my opinion.

My assumption from looking at his history is last year was a very good few months, but that's the exception rather than the norm and we shouldn't expect it to continue.

 

I think over-performing is an interesting debate but that confidence also plays a role - i.e. players maybe score more than their expected goals when confident but less than when they are not, which feels logical instinctively. Over his career he has had a few "purple patches" so it is not a fluke but he barely played in 17 - 18, did alright in 18 - 19 and then excelled in the start of 19-20 when he was settled and team was built to his strength.

Which is to say that I don't "expect" Wells form to continue but I believe it could be possible to create situations where it might do so. Like you suggested in your previous post, I'm not 100% convinced Wells was the right striker to bring in for the way we wanted to play last season. But he was a reliable goalscorer who was available. Now we have him, I suppose it is how we use him at his best to make it work, especially if Fam does not stick around. 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, IAmNick said:

Interesting. So the question that comes to me is: Was Wells over-performing relative to his history with QPR and has now regressed to his standard? Or have we not played to his strengths and are inhibiting him and should be trying to get him back to that standard?

If so was it more a case of QPR doing something right than us now doing something wrong? Or perhaps it was just a purple patch?

Do you have the data from his last few seasons we could plot? Then we can see if QPR last season, or us are the outlier. Being that far above your xG is probably not sustainable in my opinion.

My assumption from looking at his history is last year was a very good few months, but that's the exception rather than the norm and we shouldn't expect it to continue.

 

I can only go back 5 seasons but he’s generally performing below his “norm” for us...but QPR was a purple patch.

[redordead1]

Hope I’m wrong and he scores a shed load for us this season, but I haven’t been overly impressed with his technique or decision making at times. If he’s not scoring, he brings little else to the team and as others have said above, he missed some pretty simple chances against Exeter through a combination of poor control and lack of composure.

Now hopefully he comes good and he shares a similar knack for scoring (however they go in) to his compatriot Shaun Goater, but I would choose Fam over Wells and rate him as a higher quality player as it stands. 

[Merrick's Marvels]

12 hours ago, IAmNick said:

I'm not so sure how Fam fits in with our other options up front, given that him and Wells doesn't seem to be as good together as we'd like.

In hindsight, I think Wells was a mistake. That's probably not a popular opinion but I'd rather have Fam +1 up front then Wells + 1 based on what I've seen so far, not to mention Fam is three years younger.

 

I've been thinking this myself - I see little evidence of a partnership between Fam and Wells at all.

Although his link up play can at times be poor, Wells is the striker who will score us 20 goals given the right service. So I'd play him as high up the pitch as possible, concentrate on being a fox in the box, and ask Martin to be the one who drops a bit deeper to link up the play - he's got the technique and intelligence, if not the stamina to do it for 46 games.

However, I'm not sure how those 2 fit Holden's desire for energetic pressing to win the ball back. Weimann has bundles of energy which is why I can see him playing plenty under Holden but I'm not convinced he's good enough if we're serious about promotion.    

[Red Skin]

I was quite supportive when Fam first arrived when others was less so, but just when most seem to have a big love in with him I've gone the other way.  I would ok about him going.  

He works hard, he can defend corners and is a lovely guy, but I just don't think he that good a striker.  I haven't seen enough improvement over the time he's been here to make me want him to stay.

I'd far rather see what Martin can do alongside Wells.  If we get a replacement for Fam, I'd rather see one come in that plays on the shoulder of the last defender and can run in behind and gave some belief he'd score. 

[JoeAman08]

I don’t get the goal scorer argument. He isn’t a prolific goal scorer but he is a good one at this level. 19 players scored more than him last season and 3 the same amount. Sounds like a lot but lets break it down. 
 

Out of those 22, 5 had worse goals per minutes ratios.
 

Another 7 are worth 15m quid or more.

Another 1 is already on the team. While another 1 was bought for 7-8m quid last summer(12 goals Puscas). 
 

So that leaves another 8.
 

Grabban and Bamford I would guess make a fair bit more than Fam. 
 

Then the last few are Woodrow, Matt Smith, Hugill, Steven Fletcher, Meite & Daniel Johnson(takes penalties for Preston). All of which are in the same range as Fam(12-14) goals wise. 
 

Point is, who on the list could Bristol City get that is a significant upgrade on Fam in terms of scoring? Maybe that is where Martin comes into play but he is 4 years older than Fam and I’d guess similar wages?

No qualms selling Fam if he doesn’t want to sign a new deal. Just not a fan of selling him because “he doesn’t score goals.” He is 1:3 in the league under Lee Johnson. Even if a bit freer means 3 more goals he is at 15 where anything more is hard to get for less than 10m and 25k a week. Extending Fam for 3 more years means from an FFP standpoint he could be cheaper than Joe Williams on a per season basis. 
 

 

 

 

[IAmNick]

17 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

I don’t get the goal scorer argument. He isn’t a prolific goal scorer but he is a good one at this level. 19 players scored more than him last season and 3 the same amount. Sounds like a lot but lets break it down. 
 

Out of those 22, 5 had worse goals per minutes ratios.
 

Another 7 are worth 15m quid or more.

Another 1 is already on the team. While another 1 was bought for 7-8m quid last summer(12 goals Puscas). 
 

So that leaves another 8.
 

Grabban and Bamford I would guess make a fair bit more than Fam. 
 

Then the last few are Woodrow, Matt Smith, Hugill, Steven Fletcher, Meite & Daniel Johnson(takes penalties for Preston). All of which are in the same range as Fam(12-14) goals wise. 
 

Point is, who on the list could Bristol City get that is a significant upgrade on Fam in terms of scoring? Maybe that is where Martin comes into play but he is 4 years older than Fam and I’d guess similar wages?

No qualms selling Fam if he doesn’t want to sign a new deal. Just not a fan of selling him because “he doesn’t score goals.” He is 1:3 in the league under Lee Johnson. Even if a bit freer means 3 more goals he is at 15 where anything more is hard to get for less than 10m and 25k a week. Extending Fam for 3 more years means from an FFP standpoint he could be cheaper than Joe Williams on a per season basis. 
 

Yeah I completely agree.

He's also been played with what could create about 5 teams worth of different partners, systems, and formations. Lone striker, in a 2, target man, wingers, wingbacks, a number 10 behind him, long balls and so on. Sometimes switching almost from week to week as we know. Despite all that he's kept a decent record up.

Certainly not perfect and can look a bit clumsy at times, but he's been remarkably consistent!

[Hartleysbeard]

This could be the season he benefits from not having to do all the work up front on his own. I hope he stays and bangs in 20+ league goals that fire us towards promotion. Looking at the league table today and Brentford aside, there’s nothing there that phases me as I think the relegated sides will struggle to adapt - It could be our best chance of promotion yet. Yours, annually overoptimistic fan! 

[Gillies Downs Leeds]

1 hour ago, Hartleysbeard said:

This could be the season he benefits from not having to do all the work up front on his own. I hope he stays and bangs in 20+ league goals that fire us towards promotion. Looking at the league table today and Brentford aside, there’s nothing there that phases me as I think the relegated sides will struggle to adapt - It could be our best chance of promotion yet. Yours, annually overoptimistic fan! 

Brentford could possibly lose another of their front 3 yet but no doubt they will have plans in place to replace him. Watford & Bournemouth I can see struggling to adapt however I think Norwich, even though they have lost a couple of players, have recruited well in my opinion. I think that they will go straight back up. Other than that I think the division looks as wide open as ever. 

[Kid in the Riot]

3 hours ago, JoeAman08 said:

I don’t get the goal scorer argument. He isn’t a prolific goal scorer but he is a good one at this level. 19 players scored more than him last season and 3 the same amount. Sounds like a lot but lets break it down. 
 

Out of those 22, 5 had worse goals per minutes ratios.
 

Another 7 are worth 15m quid or more.

Another 1 is already on the team. While another 1 was bought for 7-8m quid last summer(12 goals Puscas). 
 

So that leaves another 8.
 

Grabban and Bamford I would guess make a fair bit more than Fam. 
 

Then the last few are Woodrow, Matt Smith, Hugill, Steven Fletcher, Meite & Daniel Johnson(takes penalties for Preston). All of which are in the same range as Fam(12-14) goals wise. 
 

Point is, who on the list could Bristol City get that is a significant upgrade on Fam in terms of scoring? Maybe that is where Martin comes into play but he is 4 years older than Fam and I’d guess similar wages?

No qualms selling Fam if he doesn’t want to sign a new deal. Just not a fan of selling him because “he doesn’t score goals.” He is 1:3 in the league under Lee Johnson. Even if a bit freer means 3 more goals he is at 15 where anything more is hard to get for less than 10m and 25k a week. Extending Fam for 3 more years means from an FFP standpoint he could be cheaper than Joe Williams on a per season basis. 

And playing in a side last season that created next to nothing for him...

[Major Isewater]

15 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

And playing in a side last season that created next to nothing for him...

Turning it round , how many goals did he create for himself ? And how many assists did he have ? 
 

I am a fan of Famaral, he reminds me of ‘ The Chief ‘ big Wayne Allison who was always there or thereabouts but never quite broke through as a goal machine . 
 

An awkward looking player and hard to play against. 
 

I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him and hope he re-signs .

[LondonBristolian]

1 hour ago, Gillies Downs Leeds said:

Brentford could possibly lose another of their front 3 yet but no doubt they will have plans in place to replace him. Watford & Bournemouth I can see struggling to adapt however I think Norwich, even though they have lost a couple of players, have recruited well in my opinion. I think that they will go straight back up. Other than that I think the division looks as wide open as ever. 

I just think it's hard to predict how anyone will do. There are about 14 teams where I feel could make a convincing case for why they are sure to end up in the play-offs, and I convincing case as to why they will not. And I'd not rule 5 of the other 10 either...

[Davefevs]

16 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I just think it's hard to predict how anyone will do. There are about 14 teams where I feel could make a convincing case for why they are sure to end up in the play-offs, and I convincing case as to why they will not. And I'd not rule 5 of the other 10 either...

I think the league has a few tiers:

• a top 3/4
• 4/5 down to 13/14
• 14 to 18
• 19 to 24

i see us in the 2nd bullet...here’s my 1-24

 

[LondonBristolian]

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think the league has a few tiers:

• a top 3/4
• 4/5 down to 13/14
• 14 to 18
• 19 to 24

i see us in the 2nd bullet...here’s my 1-24

 

I think that is a very fair summary but I think teams nonetheless surprise.

All the teams you mention will expect to be there and challenging but I can also see Norwich's signings not gelling, Bournemouth's new manager not having the skills, Brentford having lost some spark after last season's disappointment, Cardiff reverting to early season form, Watford being pure chaos and Millwall lacking in quality and depth with the level of rotation.

Similarly I think Derby, Boro and QPR are all probably pitched about right but all of them could surprise.

I think the bottom three plus Reading and Rotherham are the only five where I'd be genuinely shocked if they mounted a promotion challenge. 

[Jerseybean]

55 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think the league has a few tiers:

• a top 3/4
• 4/5 down to 13/14
• 14 to 18
• 19 to 24

i see us in the 2nd bullet...here’s my 1-24

 

Here’s my end of season table prediction: 

1. Watford
2. Brentford
3. Norwich
4. Forest
5. Swansea
6. Stoke
7. Cardiff
8. PNE
9. Derby
10. Bournemouth
11. Boro
12. Bristol City
13. Millwall
14. Huddersfield
15. Blackburn
16. QPR
17. Wycombe
18. Coventry
19. Birmingham
20. Barnsley
21. Luton
22. Reading
23. Sheffield Weds
24. Rotherham

[Davefevs]

12 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I think that is a very fair summary but I think teams nonetheless surprise.

All the teams you mention will expect to be there and challenging but I can also see Norwich's signings not gelling, Bournemouth's new manager not having the skills, Brentford having lost some spark after last season's disappointment, Cardiff reverting to early season form, Watford being pure chaos and Millwall lacking in quality and depth with the level of rotation.

Similarly I think Derby, Boro and QPR are all probably pitched about right but all of them could surprise.

I think the bottom three plus Reading and Rotherham are the only five where I'd be genuinely shocked if they mounted a promotion challenge. 

So City as Champions then!

[Sturny]

7 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Here’s my end of season table prediction: 

1. Watford
2. Brentford
3. Norwich
4. Forest
5. Swansea
6. Stoke
7. Cardiff
8. PNE
9. Derby
10. Bournemouth
11. Boro
12. Bristol City
13. Millwall
14. Huddersfield
15. Blackburn
16. QPR
17. Wycombe
18. Coventry
19. Birmingham
20. Barnsley
21. Luton
22. Reading
23. Sheffield Weds
24. Rotherham

I reckon Bournemouth would fall even further than that, they've sold nearly everyone decent and have been poor at replacing for a while. 

[RedEyez]

Actually think Bournemouth will struggle this season.

[IAmNick]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

I think the league has a few tiers:

• a top 3/4
• 4/5 down to 13/14
• 14 to 18
• 19 to 24

i see us in the 2nd bullet...here’s my 1-24

 

Perhaps this is for another thread, but I'm consistently amazed people have us down for a better season than any of the ones we managed under Lee, and in fact our second best in what, 30 years+?

Call me Mr Pessimistic but I can't see any reason currently to back that up... apart from the standard pre-season optimism perhaps!

[Bat Fastard]

Just now, IAmNick said:

Perhaps this is for another thread, but I'm consistently amazed people have us down for a better season than any of the ones we managed under Lee, and in fact our second best in what, 30 years+?

Call me Mr Pessimistic but I can't see any reason currently to back that up... apart from the standard pre-season optimism perhaps!

Mr Pessimistic, you may consider that other teams will have been affected by limitations in recruiting and spending by Covid. We may not be as bad as you think. Dean seems to be winning over many of the doubters as well. Maybe you could allow yourself a chink of optimism?

[Sturny]

1 minute ago, JonDolman said:

I think we have quality in all areas of the pitch and don't see why we can't be making the playoffs.

Can't really see a weakness. Get the tactics right and this team could be right up there imo.

I'd still say defensive midfield. The amount of times I saw teams slice through our midfield like butter over the past couple of season! I hope this was down to just LJ tactics and DH has addressed this. Apart from that I agree 

[IAmNick]

3 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I think we have quality in all areas of the pitch and don't see why we can't be making the playoffs.

Can't really see a weakness. Get the tactics right and this team could be right up there imo.

I agree the team looks good on the whole. Surely there is one very obvious potential weakness though, in perhaps the most important position of all? That's been done to death though of course so there's no point getting in to it here.

8 minutes ago, Bat Fastard said:

Mr Pessimistic, you may consider that other teams will have been affected by limitations in recruiting and spending by Covid. We may not be as bad as you think. Dean seems to be winning over many of the doubters as well. Maybe you could allow yourself a chink of optimism?

I think our recruitment has been pretty good so far. But it will take more than a nice radio interview to improve my predictions - winning league games will win over this doubter!

I've been optimistic before far too many seasons before and am usually wrong. Hopefully I am this time too!

The fact the positive predictions are also on a thread about losing our best striker from the last few years is unusual as well.

[Bat Fastard]

1 minute ago, IAmNick said:

I agree the team looks good on the whole. Surely there is one very obvious potential weakness though, in perhaps the most important position of all? That's been done to death though of course so there's no point getting in to it here.

I think our recruitment has been pretty good so far. But it will take more than a nice radio interview to improve my predictions - winning league games will win over this doubter!

I've been optimistic before far too many seasons before and am usually wrong. Hopefully I am this time too!

The fact the positive predictions are also on a thread about losing our best striker from the last few years is unusual as well.

The gulf between teams with and without parachute payments could be bigger than ever this year - but that aside, I believe we may have a good season.  Having to trade FD would be a blow, but that would depend on the person recruited in his stead. Most likely this would be a loan from the Premier League.

[Davefevs]

9 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

I agree the team looks good on the whole. Surely there is one very obvious potential weakness though, in perhaps the most important position of all? That's been done to death though of course so there's no point getting in to it here.

I think our recruitment has been pretty good so far. But it will take more than a nice radio interview to improve my predictions - winning league games will win over this doubter!

I've been optimistic before far too many seasons before and am usually wrong. Hopefully I am this time too!

The fact the positive predictions are also on a thread about losing our best striker from the last few years is unusual as well.

My Holden-ball piece is gonna be on Bristol City Live (BP) early next week.

You can read why I’m optimistic. You may not agree, that’s cool.

When you see the likes of Derby losing players, not just Martin, but Bogle and Lowe etc, then you realise even with MMA (Mel’s Magic Accounting) that some clubs have not recruited anywhere near as strongly as we have. 

[IAmNick]

11 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Head coach?

Well he could be anything. So far he's impressed me. But with a better squad than he had in those final games I'd like to think he can really make that system work.

A key thing for me is Mawson and Kalas staying fit. And if Joe Williams can get back and stay fit too then we could have a much more solid look. But certainly not lacking attacking quality too.

 

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

My Holden-ball piece is gonna be on Bristol City Live (BP) early next week.

You can read why I’m optimistic. You may not agree, that’s cool.

When you see the likes of Derby losing players, not just Martin, but Bogle and Lowe etc, then you realise even with MMA (Mel’s Magic Accounting) that some clubs have not recruited anywhere near as strongly as we have. 

Yep both fair points on the solidity of our squad now, and our recruitment compared to others.

From what Holden has said, I've been impressed as well. But I was impressed with what Millen and Tinnion said too so I'm remaining cautious. Words come cheap, and after the last few years I think we perhaps are too enthusiastic due to the difference we now have. Recruitment has certainly been more cohesive in general though.

I guess with the unknown comes a range - perhaps I'm being overly negative and looking at the bottom of the range, and you're both looking nearer the top. I'd like to think I'm being cautious rather than negative though, but who knows. As you said Jon, he could be anything - that's why it's interesting to read all these different opinions! Then we can look back in a year and tear into each other  

I had a read of your Bees Analytica article Dave and enjoyed it so will take a peek at the BP one as well - if it's different?

[Davefevs]

22 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

 

Yep both fair points on the solidity of our squad now, and our recruitment compared to others.

From what Holden has said, I've been impressed as well. But I was impressed with what Millen and Tinnion said too so I'm remaining cautious. Words come cheap, and after the last few years I think we perhaps are too enthusiastic due to the difference we now have. Recruitment has certainly been more cohesive in general though.

I guess with the unknown comes a range - perhaps I'm being overly negative and looking at the bottom of the range, and you're both looking nearer the top. I'd like to think I'm being cautious rather than negative though, but who knows. As you said Jon, he could be anything - that's why it's interesting to read all these different opinions! Then we can look back in a year and tear into each other  

I had a read of your Bees Analytica article Dave and enjoyed it so will take a peek at the BP one as well - if it's different?

Thanks...Only a slight update to cover Exeter and last week’s 4 signings.

[MC RISK77]

3 hours ago, RedEyez said:

Actually think Bournemouth will struggle this season.

Yep and me....Watford favourites for me and I think Swansea will join them in top 2....I also think Brentford will struggle

[INCRED]

3 hours ago, IAmNick said:

Perhaps this is for another thread, but I'm consistently amazed people have us down for a better season than any of the ones we managed under Lee, and in fact our second best in what, 30 years+?

Call me Mr Pessimistic but I can't see any reason currently to back that up... apart from the standard pre-season optimism perhaps!

So you don’t think the shortcomings that were clearly apparent last season have been addressed?

I do and provided they gel with the rest of the squad then there is no need not to be optimistic as quality and experience has clearly been added very much along the lines of our promotion season from L1

i would prefer to be in our current situation than most of the others in the Championship 

[IAmNick]

34 minutes ago, INCRED said:

So you don’t think the shortcomings that were clearly apparent last season have been addressed?

I do and provided they gel with the rest of the squad then there is no need not to be optimistic as quality and experience has clearly been added very much along the lines of our promotion season from L1

i would prefer to be in our current situation than most of the others in the Championship 

There were two shortcomings last year I think most of us would agree that needed addressing.

Shortcomings in the squad? Yes. It looks much better and the club deserve credit there - I'm feeling good about that for sure.

In the management? We have someone who's managed about 20 games in their career. 3/4 of them were 5 years ago in a lower division with a 20% win rate. None of us know yet whether that shortcoming has been addressed. Considering how notoriously difficult the division is I'm erring on the side of caution.

[Jerseybean]

7 hours ago, Jerseybean said:

Here’s my end of season table prediction: 

1. Watford
2. Brentford
3. Norwich
4. Forest
5. Swansea
6. Stoke
7. Cardiff
8. PNE
9. Derby
10. Bournemouth
11. Boro
12. Bristol City
13. Millwall
14. Huddersfield
15. Blackburn
16. QPR
17. Wycombe
18. Coventry
19. Birmingham
20. Barnsley
21. Luton
22. Reading
23. Sheffield Weds
24. Rotherham

So here’s how the data modelling approach has the final table:

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/how-bristol-city-tipped-season-4509481

 

 

 

 

[Davefevs]

Low points top to bottom, suggesting a lot of draws.

[Port Said Red]

Interesting last two pages, if the discussion was on the main page........ Any news on Famara? 

[GrahamC]

Just now, Port Said Red said:

Interesting last two pages, if the discussion was on the main page........ Any news on Famara? 

None at all, I still have a hunch he will go (but I’m often wrong) & the nearer we get to the deadline without his new contract signed the more likely we will look to make that happen.

[Port Said Red]

3 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

None at all, I still have a hunch he will go (but I’m often wrong) & the nearer we get to the deadline without his new contract signed the more likely we will look to make that happen.

I think his agents will be keen to get him into free agent status unless there is money to be made from any deal we can negotiate. 

[GrahamC]

14 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

I think his agents will be keen to get him into free agent status unless there is money to be made from any deal we can negotiate. 

Undoubtedly & that is where Ashton comes in to make sure that is not the case & we get at least some return on our investment.

Whilst we are speculating those involved will have a fairly good idea which way this is heading & will plan accordingly.

[brad blit]

Muriqi to Lazio deal done (fenerbache striker - 20mil), Fammy was widely rumoured to be no1 choice replacement if he left. See what happens next week 

[INCRED]

8 hours ago, brad blit said:

Muriqi to Lazio deal done (fenerbache striker - 20mil), Fammy was widely rumoured to be no1 choice replacement if he left. See what happens next week 

Judging by his performances in the last two games he isn’t 100% on his game 

He will be gone in this window as will Eliasson and we will get about £10m in to get a forward in on loan or perm

[GrahamC]

BBC transfer gossip page is reporting Leeds, Wolves & Arsenal are after Dijon striker Mounir Chouiar.

I have no idea who that is, but if it is true that would explain where they are expecting to get the money to bid for Famara.

[Chairman Mao]

All sounds like he is off, how much are we asking?

[Banjo Red]

Sky sports reporting this also.

[RedRoss]

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/news/ligue-1-side-dijon-lead-race-to-sign-bristol-city-striker-famara-diedhiou-1599995207000

[Crackers Corner]

Will he cut the mustard at dijon?

[Davefevs]

Think this will happen.  No itk, just the French media is quite reliable.

[Dolman_Stand]

I'm surprised him and Eliasson were involved yesterday with their ongoing contract situations, the risk to us is probably greater than it is to the individual players. If either of them get a nasty injury i.e out for 4 to 5 months we would be unable to sell them in this window whilst their value is still reasonable and left with a player that can sign a pre contract agreement in January to move for nothing next summer....can't imagine Ashton and the Lansdowns would be overly impressed with Holden in this scenario

We really need to set them both a deadline of say next weekend to make a decision and if they haven't signed then we actively circulate their names ASAP.

[jayjay]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Think this will happen.  No itk, just the French media is quite reliable.

I really do hope you are right. We play so much better with proper mobile forwards who actually appear to know the game. 

[Lanterne Rouge]

8 minutes ago, Dolman_Stand said:

I'm surprised him and Eliasson were involved yesterday with their ongoing contract situations, the risk to us is probably greater than it is to the individual players. If either of them get a nasty injury i.e out for 4 to 5 months we would be unable to sell them in this window whilst their value is still reasonable and left with a player that can sign a pre contract agreement in January to move for nothing next summer....can't imagine Ashton and the Lansdowns would be overly impressed with Holden in this scenario

We really need to set them both a deadline of say next weekend to make a decision and if they haven't signed then we actively circulate their names ASAP.

Unless Dijon wanted a look at him?

[Jerseybean]

Think FD, NE and KP will all be ex-City players in a couple of weeks.

[Major Isewater]

24 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Think FD, NE and KP will all be ex-City players in a couple of weeks.

Sadly I think you could be right . 
 

For info there haven’t been any further announcements about FD in the French media . 

[bcfc01]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Think this will happen.  No itk, just the French media is quite reliable.

I agree, they are quite on the button, but Dijon ? I can't see it.

He'll go, but I'll be surprised if its there.

They lost at home today 0-2 and go bottom of the league.

 

[Johnr1986]

45 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Think FD, NE and KP will all be ex-City players in a couple of weeks.

Think you are right, will be sad to all leave 3 of the more quality players in our squad 

[David Brent]

1 hour ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

Unless Dijon wanted a look at him?

Should put them off

[redrob]

4 hours ago, Chairman Mao said:

All sounds like he is off, how much are we asking?

7/8 million? We paid 5.3m so I'd be hoping for a return of a couple of million for a player who consistently scores 13-14 goals in our league. He'll score 20+ on French ligue 1 easily. 

[deadredfred]

6 minutes ago, redrob said:

7/8 million? We paid 5.3m so I'd be hoping for a return of a couple of million for a player who consistently scores 13-14 goals in our league. He'll score 20+ on French ligue 1 easily. 

He’s only got a year left. If we get anywhere near making our money back then Mark Ashton is a witch. £2m an absolute maximum I’d say.

[Bobbie]

His best quality is defending corners. As a striker that says a lot. Don’t think loosing him would be the end of the world but I do worry about relying on Martin too much as he has had his fitness issues. Think we’d need a replacement 

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

If Fam goes should we go back for Afobe? I think Stoke will make him available with Michael O'Neil clearly stating his squads too big. Or should we look elsewhere or even stick with what we've got utilising Weimann as a forward again. 

[Roger Red Hat]

2 minutes ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

If Fam goes should we go back for Afobe? I think Stoke will make him available with Michael O'Neil clearly stating his squads too big. Or should we look elsewhere or even stick with what we've got utilising Weimann as a forward again. 

No, and hasn't he gone to Luton?

[GrahamC]

2 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

No, and hasn't he gone to Luton?

Not yet, wasn’t in the Stoke squad on Saturday, the rumour is Luton want him on loan but nothing has happened yet.