Financial fair play

[harvey54]

Any of you number crunchers/statos out there know how much we could spaff on transfers in January without breaking FFP? 

[OneTeamInBristol]

No idea

[Posset red]

£10.50

[SBB]

[Davefevs]

This will get taken as fact…..but I reckon we could spend increase costs by £20m (combo of fees, wages etc) in January.  I project we are inside FFP by that amount, but as soon as 18/19s profit drops out of the reporting cycle we are stuffed!  Hence we are being careful now.

[Sniper]

33 minutes ago, harvey54 said:

Any of you number crunchers/statos out there know how much we could spaff on transfers in January without breaking FFP? 

See this recent thread mate.

 

[harvey54]

1 hour ago, Sniper said:

See this recent thread mate.

 

Thanks

Basically, nobody knows. I'll get me coat

[Calculus]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

This will get taken as fact…..but I reckon we could spend increase costs by £20m (combo of fees, wages etc) in January.  I project we are inside FFP by that amount, but as soon as 18/19s profit drops out of the reporting cycle we are stuffed!  Hence we are being careful now.

I find it difficult to believe that no allowance is being made within FFP rules for the consequences of Covd and in particular the shortfall in normal income due to Covid. Meanwhile, parachute payments continue - which always were unfair but now made even more so by Covd losses. 

[Davefevs]

40 minutes ago, Calculus said:

I find it difficult to believe that no allowance is being made within FFP rules for the consequences of Covd and in particular the shortfall in normal income due to Covid. Meanwhile, parachute payments continue - which always were unfair but now made even more so by Covd losses. 

There are costs you can exclude, we just don’t know the full extent.  We also know that years 19/20 and 20/21 are added together and halved.  So in effect where your cycle includes those 2 seasons, then it’s 2 full years and 2 half years, to make it like the normal 3 year cycle.

So whilst our losses for 20/21 might be £35m, we might be able to exclude £10m of them (guess) for lost revenue.

How much of that £30m revenue in 18/19 did we lose in 19/20 (a few months covid) and 20/21 (a whole year)?  How much are we allowed to exclude from the losses?  How much revenue lost didn’t attract any cost, e.g. if you normally take £5m from concerts, but it costs you £4m to put on the events, and you haven’t incurred those costs, then you won’t be able to offset £5m.

Its a big unknown.  Last years accounts will tell us a lot.  I wonder when they’ll come out.

Edited October 26, 2021 by Davefevs

[WarksRobin]

It’s likely we will need to sell before we can buy

[Bristol Rob]

17 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

There are costs you can exclude, we just don’t know the full extent.  We also know that years 19/20 and 20/21 are added together and halved.  So in effect where your cycle includes those 2 seasons, then it’s 2 full years and 2 half years, to make it like the normal 3 year cycle.

So whilst our losses for 20/21 might be £35m, we might be able to exclude £10m of them (guess) for lost revenue.

How much of that £30m revenue in 18/19 did we lose in 19/20 (a few months covid) and 20/21 (a whole year)?  How much are we allowed to exclude from the losses?  How much revenue lost didn’t attract any cost, e.g. if you normally take £5m from concerts, but it costs you £4m to put on the events, and you haven’t incurred those costs, then you won’t be able to offset £5m.

Its a big unknown.  Last years accounts will tell us a lot.  I wonder when they’ll come out.

Wonder if the club have business interruption insurance.

[pongo88]

5 minutes ago, WarksRobin said:

It’s likely we will need to sell before we can buy

The problem is we’re not exactly well stocked with players other clubs might want to buy, assuming they have the money. Kalas, Massengo, Bentley and Wells might be of interest but, if sold, they would go for bargain basement prices in today’s market. If we sell any of the better players, to buy another player, we haven’t gained anything. We might be able to offload some of the fringe players for a free transfer to reduce the wage bill but that’s it. 

[chinapig]

1 hour ago, harvey54 said:

Thanks

Basically, nobody knows. I'll get me coat

As @Davefevspoints out we can't know for sure until the accounts are published, though JL has already said they will be "horrendous". Plus Nige made it clear we could not afford a proven goalscorer.

Which suggests we will have little or no scope to spend unless we raise significant money from sales. 

Dave's estimates seem to be entirely reasonable to me though so we could be hamstrung for a few transfer windows yet.

[Pezo]

18 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

The problem is we’re not exactly well stocked with players other clubs might want to buy, assuming they have the money. Kalas, Massengo, Bentley and Wells might be of interest but, if sold, they would go for bargain basement prices in today’s market. If we sell any of the better players, to buy another player, we haven’t gained anything. We might be able to offload some of the fringe players for a free transfer to reduce the wage bill but that’s it. 

In reality the only player you list there that's worth more to another team than to us would be HNM.

Bentley might go to the prem but GK don't trade for much so is worth more to us than selling him. Kalas is 28 clearly never going to step up to the prem so we might get £8m max from a club with parachute payments but all the yo-yo clubs seem to have a decent defence at the moment so unlikely, everyone else can only afford 2 bags of crisps an curly wurly so we will get more value out of him staying. Wells at 31 isn't going to the prem and isn't breaking into a parachute payment club either so likewise not likely to get any money.

The other challenge with with selling players is the likely lower contract offer they will get elsewhere so we will have to fund the difference, not sure about anyone else but the idea of paying Wells to score against us for QPR doesn't seem appealing.

Edited October 26, 2021 by Pezo

[harvey54]

16 minutes ago, chinapig said:

As @Davefevspoints out we can't know for sure until the accounts are published, though JL has already said they will be "horrendous". Plus Nige made it clear we could not afford a proven goalscorer.

Which suggests we will have little or no scope to spend unless we raise significant money from sales. 

Dave's estimates seem to be entirely reasonable to me though so we could be hamstrung for a few transfer windows yet.

And still other clubs keep spending while we sit and watch 

[Loco Rojo]

But, but, but Football Manager 2022 says we have £1m to spend so we must have money. Come on Steve! 

[pongo88]

41 minutes ago, Loco Rojo said:

But, but, but Football Manager 2022 says we have £1m to spend so we must have money. Come on Steve! 

Football Manager tosh!  In the good old days games were much better

[Monkeh]

1 hour ago, chinapig said:

As @Davefevspoints out we can't know for sure until the accounts are published, though JL has already said they will be "horrendous". Plus Nige made it clear we could not afford a proven goalscorer.

Which suggests we will have little or no scope to spend unless we raise significant money from sales. 

Dave's estimates seem to be entirely reasonable to me though so we could be hamstrung for a few transfer windows yet.

It was more the case a proven goal scorer better then what we have wasn't available 

But we will not spend much in Jan if anything, we will be treading water until the summer until a proper squad rebuild can take place 

[chinapig]

1 hour ago, harvey54 said:

And still other clubs keep spending while we sit and watch 

Which clubs are you referring to that are spending? Spending has fallen significantly on past levels in large part, though not exclusively in our case, due to Covid.

And of course a certain club is in administration because it kept spending money it didn't have.

[Monkeh]

1 minute ago, chinapig said:

Which clubs are you referring to that are spending? Spending has fallen significantly on past levels in large part, though not exclusively in our case, due to Covid.

And of course a certain club is in administration because it kept spending money it didn't have.

The ones with parachute payments and the prem, that's it

[Edgy Red]

Lets just rename it "The Thatchers Gold Ashton Gate Arena", pocket 10 million for the privilege, bring in two pacy wingers and a centre forward and Premier League here we come!

[Monkeh]

1 minute ago, Edgy Red said:

Lets just rename it "The Thatchers Gold Ashton Gate Arena", pocket 10 million for the privilege, bring in two pacy wingers and a centre forward and Premier League here we come!

Two pacy wingers and a centre forward would cost triple that in January 

[Edgy Red]

1 minute ago, Monkeh said:

Two pacy wingers and a centre forward would cost triple that in January 

My tongue was in my cheek

[Mr Popodopolous]

Agree with what @Davefevs said.

£20m- maybe a bit more but certainly agree with the £20m figure. However in that scenario it would be promotion or bust- we would be screwed if we decided to spend up to limits or close to them and went from the 2018/19 profit as the starting point to the combined loss from 2019/20 and 2020/21. Absolutely screwed.

[The Original OTIB]

2 hours ago, Edgy Red said:

My tongue was in my cheek

That's some agility