Goals for

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere but has anyone noticed that we are the fifth highest scoring team in the division?  Strange, it doesn’t feel like that somehow, but then you look at our goals against column and see that we have conceded ten more goals than Barnsley!

 

 

[Fordy62]

For the past few years it has been our forward play that has needed addressing. I just think there are some key defensive figures we need shot of and then things will start to look better. 

Vyner & O’Dowda would be a good start. Vyner is capable of some good play, but he must offer at least one big chance every game he plays. 

O’Dowda isn’t a defender, he offers nothing going forwards, I’m not sure what he is. 

Personally I think we’re better off with Bentley.

[Numero Uno]

2 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

For the past few years it has been our forward play that has needed addressing. I just think there are some key defensive figures we need shot of and then things will start to look better. 

Vyner & O’Dowda would be a good start. Vyner is capable of some good play, but he must offer at least one big chance every game he plays. 

O’Dowda isn’t a defender, he offers nothing going forwards, I’m not sure what he is. 

Personally I think we’re better off with Bentley.

Great description of Vyner there. He's not shit like many make him out to be BUT as you say he's got one or two mistakes in him EVERY GAME at this level. Clearly has an issue focusing. The type of player you could see going down a level and bossing it.

O'Dowda is a nothing player to me. That "effort" he produced last night would be verging on sackable if any of us turned up and replicated that in a normal job.

[Numero Uno]

19 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere but has anyone noticed that we are the fifth highest scoring team in the division?  Strange, it doesn’t feel like that somehow, but then you look at our goals against column and see that we have conceded ten more goals than Barnsley!

 

 

I said in another thread that our squad isn't good enough to be both tight defensively and create chances. It's one or the other with us and rightly or wrongly Pearson and Fleming have gone for the "lets try and score two to three goals a game and see how many points it gets us" option........................it's certainly made going to the Gate a more enjoyable experience in recent times (last night being an exception in those last 25 minutes), I'll say that much.

We were so open at times last night it was crazy but you pays your money and takes your choice with our squad.

[Hartleysbeard]

5th most potent attack coupled with 3rd leakiest defence…at least we’re guaranteed goals in our games!

[Offside]

I didn’t realise that our “goals for” was so high. There were points earlier in the season when it felt like we were unable to create chances, let alone score them. 

The return of Semenyo has massively improved our forward play. At last there is a player to scare the hell out of opponents. 

Also there’s Weimann - he’s been scoring and involved in setting up goals too, like our first last night. There was also his workrate in closing down the keeper that led to Semenyo’s volley that hit the post. 

[Northern Red]

That stat was mentioned during commentary last night and I had to double check it, because certainly there are times where it's felt like we've struggled for creativity and goals.

We've actually scored in our last 11 league games now, although the Fulham cup game where we didn't score is also in that spell.

[ExiledAjax]

Thing is our average xG against has actually changed much.

Under Johnson in 2019/20 it was 1.55 across the season, Holden's few games at the end of that season were 1.44, and the whole season 1.54. That was from 4.59 shots on target against per game, and we conceded 1.41 goals per game.

In 2020/21 those seasonal averages were 1.58 xGA, 4.26 shots on target, and 1.48 goals conceded.

This season we have averages of 1.64 xGA, 4.58 shots on target, and goals conceded is 1.77. 

So really, although those numbers are worse this season, they aren't drastically different to the past few years. The shots on target we're allowing tend to have fractionally more chance of being scored, but overall defensively we've stayed pretty static in terms of what we actually allow our opponents to do in front of our goal.

And yet we're conceding 23% more goals than we did last season.

The difference this year is that individuals are making errors, and those errors are being punished. That means it's not the system that has worsened, it's individual performance, or even luck.

Now, that being said, those numbers are all still pretty bad. Ideally we want xGA to be down at about 1.2 or below, shots on target against down at 3ish.  Those are the figures that top 6 teams generally put out.

Attacking output is back up to what it was under Johnson, after a horrific dip under Holden. So that's why we're scoring more, and scoring enough to just outpace what we're conceding.

14 minutes ago, Hartleysbeard said:

5th most potent attack coupled with 3rd leakiest defence…at least we’re guaranteed goals in our games!

Average game is a 2-1 loss, up from a 1-0 loss last season and a 1-1 draw in 2019/20.

[ExiledAjax]

7 minutes ago, Northern Red said:

That stat was mentioned during commentary last night and I had to double check it, because certainly there are times where it's felt like we've struggled for creativity and goals.

We've actually scored in our last 11 league games now, although the Fulham cup game where we didn't score is also in that spell.

4.6 shots on target per game, and only one game where we had fewer than 3 (Derby). Only one game (Fulham) where we had xG of less than 1. Our attacking creativity is fine.

[Fpcity]

45 minutes ago, Offside said:

I didn’t realise that our “goals for” was so high. There were points earlier in the season when it felt like we were unable to create chances, let alone score them. 

The return of Semenyo has massively improved our forward play. At last there is a player to scare the hell out of opponents. 

Also there’s Weimann - he’s been scoring and involved in setting up goals too, like our first last night. There was also his workrate in closing down the keeper that led to Semenyo’s volley that hit the post. 

Weimann has been involved in just under half of our goals this season. Lucky for us he signed on in the summer. 

[The Original OTIB]

1 hour ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere but has anyone noticed that we are the fifth highest scoring team in the division?  Strange, it doesn’t feel like that somehow, but then you look at our goals against column and see that we have conceded ten more goals than Barnsley!

 

 

Net effect? Groundhog day: https://www.11v11.com/teams/bristol-city/tab/leagueTables/20-february-2021/

[Offside]

45 minutes ago, paul_fox said:

Weimann has been involved in just under half of our goals this season. Lucky for us he signed on in the summer. 

Just goes to show what a key player he is. 

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, Northern Red said:

That stat was mentioned during commentary last night and I had to double check it, because certainly there are times where it's felt like we've struggled for creativity and goals.

We've actually scored in our last 11 league games now, although the Fulham cup game where we didn't score is also in that spell.

Who started his first game of the season to start that run?

A. Antoine ‘the goat’ Semenyo!

[Nickybee]

Been said many times elsewhere but tightening up a bit at the back would see us much better off than we are in terms of points & therefore league position. Not to mention us fans possibly feeling better too . 

It’s a cliche I know but I always go back to the saying that strikers win games and defenders win trophies.

[cidercity1987]

2 hours ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere but has anyone noticed that we are the fifth highest scoring team in the division?  Strange, it doesn’t feel like that somehow, but then you look at our goals against column and see that we have conceded ten more goals than Barnsley!

 

 

I have definitely noticed.

Weimann is what, 4th top scorer. Semenyo is one of the most highly rated attacking talents in the Champ and Martin is good for a goal. Plus Wells in the background. Not many other Championship teams have such a good strikeforce. This is despite our general play (and therefore probably expected goals) being very average to poor.

In hindsight this season has been a question of what might have been if we'd been a bit tighter at the back and able to defend a lead in the 90th minute.

Edited February 10, 2022 by cidercity1987

[Fpcity]

23 minutes ago, Nickybee said:

Been said many times elsewhere but tightening up a bit at the back would see us much better off than we are in terms of points & therefore league position. Not to mention us fans possibly feeling better too . 

It’s a cliche I know but I always go back to the saying that strikers win games and defenders win trophies.

Sky said we've lost over 20 points from winning positions this season. 

[Zookeeper WSM]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Thing is our average xG against has actually changed much.

Under Johnson in 2019/20 it was 1.55 across the season, Holden's few games at the end of that season were 1.44, and the whole season 1.54. That was from 4.59 shots on target against per game, and we conceded 1.41 goals per game.

In 2020/21 those seasonal averages were 1.58 xGA, 4.26 shots on target, and 1.48 goals conceded.

This season we have averages of 1.64 xGA, 4.58 shots on target, and goals conceded is 1.77. 

So really, although those numbers are worse this season, they aren't drastically different to the past few years. The shots on target we're allowing tend to have fractionally more chance of being scored, but overall defensively we've stayed pretty static in terms of what we actually allow our opponents to do in front of our goal.

And yet we're conceding 23% more goals than we did last season.

The difference this year is that individuals are making errors, and those errors are being punished. That means it's not the system that has worsened, it's individual performance, or even luck.

Now, that being said, those numbers are all still pretty bad. Ideally we want xGA to be down at about 1.2 or below, shots on target against down at 3ish.  Those are the figures that top 6 teams generally put out.

Attacking output is back up to what it was under Johnson, after a horrific dip under Holden. So that's why we're scoring more, and scoring enough to just outpace what we're conceding.

Average game is a 2-1 loss, up from a 1-0 loss last season and a 1-1 draw in 2019/20.

I’d also say that we’re not seeing the Bentley one man shows that have enabled us to sneak so many games over the past few seasons when we were on the back foot and arguably less last ditch Kalas blocks. Both of these have been factors that have previously kept our goals conceded down whilst our XG against was high.

[Gimme Shelton]

1 hour ago, Offside said:

Just goes to show what a key player he is. 

But surely those who say ' he only runs around a lot' can't be wrong

[tin]

28 minutes ago, paul_fox said:

Sky said we've lost over 20 points from winning positions this season. 

23 points lost from winning positions. If we’d claimed them all, we’d be a point behind Fulham in second!

[ExiledAjax]

4 minutes ago, Zookeeper WSM said:

I’d also say that we’re not seeing the Bentley one man shows that have enabled us to sneak so many games over the past few seasons when we were on the back foot and arguably less last ditch Kalas blocks. Both of these have been factors that have previously kept our goals conceded down whilst our XG against was high.

Max's save % is well below Bentley's. Max has roughly 50%, Bentley 70%, and from a roughly similar number of shots on target against and xG against. 8 league games Max has played for us now, which whilst still a small sample, is knocking on for 20% of the season so cannot be totally ignored.

 

[Nickybee]

31 minutes ago, tin said:

23 points lost from winning positions. If we’d claimed them all, we’d be a point behind Fulham in second!

If’s, and’s & maybe’s of course but holding on to just under half of those, we’d be in the play off positions, right?