The Palmer problem

[SecretSam]

Interesting article in the BP about Palmer's contract situation, and the wider issue of the handful of players (Wells, Bents, Kalas, JD) on very high wages.

The point about the impact of losing Afobe to injury, just after he and Palmer had struck up a partnership, is well made. I genuinely believe that as with Wells, there's a good player there - perhaps even Palmer playing in behind Wells. But it doesn't "fit" just now, and they're both in the final year of their contracts.

It will be interesting to see how this is handled for all these players - City will want to hang on to the likes of Kalas, one would assume - but a Weinmann-style deal can be the only way forward. Otherwise, I'd suggest they'll cash in. 

It's a massive risk area for City - and a very challenging managerial conundrum for Pearson and Gould to handle.

BP article on Palmer's contract situation

[1960maaan]

23 minutes ago, SecretSam said:

Interesting article in the BP about Palmer's contract situation, and the wider issue of the handful of players (Wells, Bents, Kalas, JD) on very high wages.

The point about the impact of losing Afobe to injury, just after he and Palmer had struck up a partnership, is well made. I genuinely believe that as with Wells, there's a good player there - perhaps even Palmer playing in behind Wells. But it doesn't "fit" just now, and they're both in the final year of their contracts.

It will be interesting to see how this is handled for all these players - City will want to hang on to the likes of Kalas, one would assume - but a Weinmann-style deal can be the only way forward. Otherwise, I'd suggest they'll cash in. 

It's a massive risk area for City - and a very challenging managerial conundrum for Pearson and Gould to handle.

BP article on Palmer's contract situation

I can't read through that site, all the adds and pop ups are just too annoying.

I agree there is a good player in there, and if Afobe hadn't got injured who knows. Sadly he was given a chance in a side that didn't suit him at all. With the likes of Weimann & Semenyo making runs he could be an asset, but I think Scott has more 'all round game' and Palmer still won't fit in the team.  
The move will, IMO , all come down to his wage demands . The deal has broken down, is that for now, is it a ploy by one party ? Who knows. There are a lot of things that could be done I guess, but with 3 parts of the deal, all looking out for themselves, it's difficult.

City want him off the wage bill, would like a fee obviously, but I do think that's secondary.
Cardiff like him, but wages will be a problem. Plus I guess they would like him on a free.
Palmer stands to earn £1m by doing nothing. If he moves he will have to take a cut in wages. He will however get a longer deal. He has a young family and wants both money and security.
I guess you could add agents into that. They just seem to want money from all sides.

The only way I see it working is City forget a fee ( though may have to top up his wage ). Palmer takes a pay cut, off set by 3 year deal . Cardiff get a free signing but offer that 3rd year for security to Palmer.

Whether this happens, who knows. It may be more than wages, but Palmer could keep his house and the family settled would be happy enough. It seems like a good deal from the outside. But asking anyone to take something like £250k pay cut is never going to be straight forward.

I'd love this to get done quickly.

[robin for life]

The fact is, if a player is sold, a contract is paid up UNLESS the new contract is equal or better to their current contract. This part of the reason we find it hard to sell players we don't want.

The fact is, he is rumoured to be on 20K a week, so effectively with 13 months left on his deal, we stand to pay him £1,120,000 before his contract expires.

Whatever Palmer will earn over the next 13 months, unless it is more, we are contractually obliged to pay him that. Now if he was being sold for decent money, and going for a wage match or more, it is no issue, but the fact is any offer is going to cost Bristol City. Do we see an exit point, where we can recoup the majority of that sort of outlay, I highly doubt this.

Our best option would be to offer him 500K to rip up his contract. In doing this, he is a free agent, and therefore can get the best deal for him and he would be eligible for a signing on fee.

Therefore any Championship / League One club could come in with say £5000 a week, but increasing to £10,000 after x many performances, for say 3 years. This means if he plays and does well, he has the opportunity to get a decent wage, but would still get £250,000 a year for 3 years if he doesn't, he would have got say 750K for this year, from ripping up his contract and new wage. He could probably also get a 100-200K signing on fee. It would also open up the opportunity for a move to Aus or US where he could be signed under the marquee player rule and it wouldn't probably suit him.

Rather than wasting time trying to thrash out a deal with clubs to recoup what we can, we are far better negotiating with him what it would take to terminate his contract. 

[Simon bristol]

Our best hope is a nagy deal where he is released with no further liability to us once he signs a new contract. If cardiff offered him 3 years he may be tempted to go for it.

however, if he wants to sit an take the extra million quid who could blame him. What a rediculous situation to find ourselves in though, you would have thought its happened often enough to learn from it.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, robin for life said:

The fact is, if a player is sold, a contract is paid up UNLESS the new contract is equal or better to their current contract. This part of the reason we find it hard to sell players we don't want.

The fact is, he is rumoured to be on 20K a week, so effectively with 13 months left on his deal, we stand to pay him £1,120,000 before his contract expires.

Whatever Palmer will earn over the next 13 months, unless it is more, we are contractually obliged to pay him that. Now if he was being sold for decent money, and going for a wage match or more, it is no issue, but the fact is any offer is going to cost Bristol City. Do we see an exit point, where we can recoup the majority of that sort of outlay, I highly doubt this.

Our best option would be to offer him 500K to rip up his contract. In doing this, he is a free agent, and therefore can get the best deal for him and he would be eligible for a signing on fee.

Therefore any Championship / League One club could come in with say £5000 a week, but increasing to £10,000 after x many performances, for say 3 years. This means if he plays and does well, he has the opportunity to get a decent wage, but would still get £250,000 a year for 3 years if he doesn't, he would have got say 750K for this year, from ripping up his contract and new wage. He could probably also get a 100-200K signing on fee. It would also open up the opportunity for a move to Aus or US where he could be signed under the marquee player rule and it wouldn't probably suit him.

Rather than wasting time trying to thrash out a deal with clubs to recoup what we can, we are far better negotiating with him what it would take to terminate his contract. 

We are also writing off an amortisation cost of £875k in 22/23 too.

How do we reach the balance of avoiding a total sunk cost of £1.875m (£1m wages plus £875k amortisation) if he turns up for training but doesn’t get picked….versus shifting him either (a) out the door by paying him off or (b) doing a deal with a club to take him on and reduce that sunk cost.

Compromise is needed, but all parties have to compromise….where is the balance to be found between City, Kasey and potentially another club.

Its not unlike Henri Lansbury, although Villa reached the “payoff” conclusion in the Jan window.  Pay him off 75% (I’m guessing) of his remaining contract and bonuses, to give him the chance to find a new club on a low wage to put himself in the shop window for a longer contract.  City took that low wage 6 month deal.  Lansbury earned a gig at Luton.  By the looks of it that was a multi-year contract as he hasn’t featured in their Released List announcement.

The difference between us and Villa, is that they are in a much better financial position to pay off a player than we are.

The term “shit sandwich” springs to mind.

[TonyTonyTony]

Palmer is a big problem , no doubt. However, the defence is also a massive issue. If Klose/Cundy don't sign you are left with Vyner/Moore as back up to CB who Pearson doesn't fancy. So whilst KP is a big financial headache, id suggest there are bigger footballing headaches to think about

[Rocking Red Cyril]

What seems worrying to me is this all seems about money. Surely Palmer should want to be playing regular football . I know he needs to earn his money in a short career. But his career is a non playing career at present. And yes I know 1 mill plus for the next year is a tidy sum. Trouble seems Cardiff want to do this on minimum expense, City want to reduce costs and Palmer wants to maximise wages. The football seems to come in seconed place.

Just my thoughts  

 

 

 

 

[robin for life]

30 minutes ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Palmer is a big problem , no doubt. However, the defence is also a massive issue. If Klose/Cundy don't sign you are left with Vyner/Moore as back up to CB who Pearson doesn't fancy. So whilst KP is a big financial headache, id suggest there are bigger footballing headaches to think about

I wouldn't worry too much about the defenders. I have a feeling Cundy will go as he will probably get guaranteed first team football in League One and he was not on much money here. I suspect Klose will renew his contract, he might be seeing if there is any interest still at Norwich to return for a year, as he still lives in the area, but I suspect he will put pen to paper soon enough. He is already first choice central defender here and on what he has shown in the last 5 months, he could justify asking for a better deal than the short term one he signed, and I suspect we will be willing to grant one. He might struggle to get the guarantees we could give him elsewhere, but I understand in his position seeing what's available before signing, but I am pretty sure he will sign for us. 

[robin for life]

29 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

What seems worrying to me is this all seems about money. Surely Palmer should want to be playing regular football . I know he needs to earn his money in a short career. But his career is a non playing career at present. And yes I know 1 mill plus for the next year is a tidy sum. Trouble seems Cardiff want to do this on minimum expense, City want to reduce costs and Palmer wants to maximise wages. The football seems to come in seconed place.

Just my thoughts  

 

 

 

 

Even if he runs down his contract here, he wont struggle to get a club in US or Aus in a years time. Ex Chelsea, Premier League/Championship performer. He wont struggle to get there as a marquee player, but none of those clubs buy players, they sign them on frees. That's why we are better off terminating his contract with some proviso's regarding compensation should he sign for another club this year, as he will be a target for those clubs as a free agent.

[brady bunch]

Shout out for another masterpiece of an article by James Piercy, you can tell its written by him just by reading it, he by far the best and most insightful local jorno we have covering City.

I love the way he states "its" the contract that is the issue, not Palmer, I completely agree with that, its not Palmer's fault we paid loads of money out for him, (yes he needs to be sensible now and look to earn his keep by playing footy elsewhere), but it was the result of a pre covid spending boom we did to get to the PL.

 

 

[GrahamC]

7 minutes ago, robin for life said:

I wouldn't worry too much about the defenders. I have a feeling Cundy will go as he will probably get guaranteed first team football in League One and he was not on much money here. I suspect Klose will renew his contract, he might be seeing if there is any interest still at Norwich to return for a year, as he still lives in the area, but I suspect he will put pen to paper soon enough. He is already first choice central defender here and on what he has shown in the last 5 months, he could justify asking for a better deal than the short term one he signed, and I suspect we will be willing to grant one. He might struggle to get the guarantees we could give him elsewhere, but I understand in his position seeing what's available before signing, but I am pretty sure he will sign for us. 

Absolutely.

The central defender issue is complicated but I don’t think Palmer’s future has any relevance there at all.

As others have said, Curtis Davies appears to be plan B if Klose doesn’t sign (like you, my hunch is he will) & the Northampton lad Horsfall is plan B for Cundy (who I think will go elsewhere), with Atkinson & Kalas both under contract for 22/23 & in the former’s case, a year or two beyond, I’m not anxious.

RB is interesting, Kane Wilson is really better suited to RWB, so let’s see how that develops.

[spudski]

1 hour ago, Rocking Red Cyril said:

What seems worrying to me is this all seems about money. Surely Palmer should want to be playing regular football . I know he needs to earn his money in a short career. But his career is a non playing career at present. And yes I know 1 mill plus for the next year is a tidy sum. Trouble seems Cardiff want to do this on minimum expense, City want to reduce costs and Palmer wants to maximise wages. The football seems to come in seconed place.

Just my thoughts  

 

 

 

 

He is playing regular football...everyday in training. 

Gets to train, play, learn (coached), eat healthily, keep fit, whilst being paid said over a £Million for the next year. 

Gets a load of time off to spend with young family in a lovely City. 

He's made for life.

At his age he will know his limits. He will know he isn't Prem quality and can go through the motions at a lower wage with another team at this level or below. He'll still get a team after this final year, all be it on a lower, but still decent wage.

Why want to play match day and be under pressure and judged weekly?

He's living the dream. Millionaire, playing football every day with no pressure. If your main drive in life is your young family, it's a no brainer.

This is why people are still fixated with Ashton...this situation is his doing.

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by spudski

[Red Skin]

Palmer needs to play games to have a chance of making a career in the game.   If he stays with us and doesn't play he becomes an even less attractive player for possible suitors.   He may be out of the game in two or  years if he doesn't make a sensible decision and move on this summer.  That may mean sacrificing wages now to make sure he earns decent money for the next 7 or 8 years.  It'll be best for him and the club. 

[spudski]

42 minutes ago, Red Skin said:

Palmer needs to play games to have a chance of making a career in the game.   If he stays with us and doesn't play he becomes an even less attractive player for possible suitors.   He may be out of the game in two or  years if he doesn't make a sensible decision and move on this summer.  That may mean sacrificing wages now to make sure he earns decent money for the next 7 or 8 years.  It'll be best for him and the club. 

Imo he doesn't need to. Make over a million in a year. Some outfit will turn up after that and still offer him a decent wage. Some teams see a CV. Chelsea and 4 Championship teams and will go for it. 

At a push, unless right contract comes along, I can see him staying or loan deal with percentage wages paid.

Just now, spudski said:

Imo he doesn't need to. Make over a million in a year. Some outfit will turn up after that and still offer him a decent wage. Some teams see a CV. Chelsea and 4 Championship teams, International and will go for it. 

At a push, unless right contract comes along, I can see him staying or loan deal with percentage wages paid.

 

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

Can't we recoup our money by putting him out to stud. 

[SecretSam]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

We are also writing off an amortisation cost of £875k in 22/23 too.

How do we reach the balance of avoiding a total sunk cost of £1.875m (£1m wages plus £875k amortisation) if he turns up for training but doesn’t get picked….versus shifting him either (a) out the door by paying him off or (b) doing a deal with a club to take him on and reduce that sunk cost.

Dave, you're going to have to point me in the direction of an article (etc) that explains how Amortisation works in football. Feel free to be a bit techy, I have a background in finance!

[Red Skin]

10 minutes ago, spudski said:

Imo he doesn't need to. Make over a million in a year. Some outfit will turn up after that and still offer him a decent wage. Some teams see a CV. Chelsea and 4 Championship teams and will go for it. 

At a push, unless right contract comes along, I can see him staying or loan deal with percentage wages paid.

Maybe so, but I see 'failed' at 4 championship clubs.  He could become a vanity project by some manager that feels he can get a tune out of him though.   Undoubtedly talented, but for me it's his attitude and hunger that's at question.  Taking a pay cut to play - and he will still have a comfortable life - would be a good way to answer that question for me.  

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, robin for life said:

Even if he runs down his contract here, he wont struggle to get a club in US or Aus in a years time. Ex Chelsea, Premier League/Championship performer. He wont struggle to get there as a marquee player, but none of those clubs buy players, they sign them on frees. That's why we are better off terminating his contract with some proviso's regarding compensation should he sign for another club this year, as he will be a target for those clubs as a free agent.

I think that is going to be the solution if we can’t get him off our hands in a financially sensible way.

1 minute ago, SecretSam said:

Dave, you're going to have to point me in the direction of an article (etc) that explains how Amortisation works in football. Feel free to be a bit techy, I have a background in finance!

It’s a posh word for depreciation.

TK signed for £8m on a 4 year contract.

From a Profit and Loss Accounting perspective, he costs us £2m per year in amortisation.  Not to be confused with staged payments or anything like that.

From a Balance Sheet perspective his value decreases from £8m to £6m to £4m to £2m to £0 as each year passes.

TK with one year left is sat at £2m in the balance sheet, having cost us £6m in amortisation so far.

FFP is closely linked to Profit and Loss.

Shout if you want more info.

[SecretSam]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

I think that is going to be the solution if we can’t get him off our hands in a financially sensible way.

It’s a posh word for depreciation.

TK signed for £8m on a 4 year contract.

From a Profit and Loss Accounting perspective, he costs us £2m per year in amortisation.  Not to be confused with staged payments or anything like that.

From a Balance Sheet perspective his value decreases from £8m to £6m to £4m to £2m to £0 as each year passes.

TK with one year left is sat at £2m in the balance sheet, having cost us £6m in amortisation so far.

FFP is closely linked to Profit and Loss.

Shout if you want more info.

Technically, he doesn't "cost" us, as the expenditure has already been made. Depreciation is a treatment of the value of an asset, in preparation for its replacement, rather than a cash transaction. 

[spudski]

1 minute ago, Red Skin said:

Maybe so, but I see 'failed' at 4 championship clubs.  He could become a vanity project by some manager that feels he can get a tune out of him though.   Undoubtedly talented, but for me it's his attitude and hunger that's at question.  Taking a pay cut to play - and he will still have a comfortable life - would be a good way to answer that question for me.  

That's if you have the hunger still.

For some players it's just a job and some are happy to go through the motions without busting a gut.

Others know their level.

Think how well he's been paid throughout his career.

And as you say...vanity inclusion or as I implied... he'll still get a decent wage after this contract.

You have to look at it from the view of the player, rather than as a fan.

I'm not saying it's the case here, but for some players it literally is like a menial boring job. Going through the motions.

 

[BTRFTG]

Halfway through last season Palmer was offered a route out to a new club with City agreeing to make up his wages until what would have been the end of his contract with us (and no, it wasn't Cardiff.) He didn't hesitate in confirming he rather just trouser the cash than up and earn a living, even if that meant,  and as management clearly informed, he and his attitude would be persona non grata amongst the kids and stiffs at Failand.

Personification of just about everything that's amiss with football today. Another who thinks being once associated with the thousands of other premier starlets makes him God's gift. In truth he's a midfield who's unable to retain possession and that's as rank an assessment as one might make.

[Rob k]

32 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

Halfway through last season Palmer was offered a route out to a new club with City agreeing to make up his wages until what would have been the end of his contract with us (and no, it wasn't Cardiff.) He didn't hesitate in confirming he rather just trouser the cash than up and earn a living, even if that meant,  and as management clearly informed, he and his attitude would be persona non grata amongst the kids and stiffs at Failand.

Personification of just about everything that's amiss with football today. Another who thinks being once associated with the thousands of other premier starlets makes him God's gift. In truth he's a midfield who's unable to retain possession and that's as rank an assessment as one might make.

Which club was that? 

[CodeRed]

1 hour ago, spudski said:

 

Gets a load of time off to spend with young family in a lovely City. 

 

He lives in Swansea the last I heard !!!

So not lovely then 

[BTRFTG]

18 minutes ago, Rob k said:

Which club was that? 

You'd guess it pretty quickly.....

[DaveF]

1 hour ago, BTRFTG said:

Halfway through last season Palmer was offered a route out to a new club with City agreeing to make up his wages until what would have been the end of his contract with us (and no, it wasn't Cardiff.) He didn't hesitate in confirming he rather just trouser the cash than up and earn a living, even if that meant,  and as management clearly informed, he and his attitude would be persona non grata amongst the kids and stiffs at Failand.

Personification of just about everything that's amiss with football today. Another who thinks being once associated with the thousands of other premier starlets makes him God's gift. In truth he's a midfield who's unable to retain possession and that's as rank an assessment as one might make.

Is that true though...?

[BTRFTG]

15 minutes ago, DaveF said:

Is that true though...?

Yes. It's why with the impasse he went in for elective, minor surgery.

Edited May 27, 2022 by BTRFTG

[Bristol Oil Services]

41 minutes ago, CodeRed said:

He lives in Swansea the last I heard !!!

So not lovely then 

And stretching the term city I would say

[Mad Cyril]

Do you really believe any footballer is happy wasting a chunk of their short career not playing the game?

Even Bale would rather be playing, albeit at a team where he is appreciated.

Sometimes a big fat contract can actually be a curse not a gift.

The best outcome in any such situation for every party is to find a way the player can get back in the team and have an impact.

[BTRFTG]

28 minutes ago, Mad Cyril said:

Do you really believe any footballer is happy wasting a chunk of their short career not playing the game?

Even Bale would rather be playing, albeit at a team where he is appreciated.

Sometimes a big fat contract can actually be a curse not a gift.

The best outcome in any such situation for every party is to find a way the player can get back in the team and have an impact.

Yep, plenty of them down the years and it's getting worse.

Many kids retained by Premier clubs until they're 23 have enough money never to have to play again when released and that's why they pack it in.

It's real problem for football development here taking hundreds of EFL standard players out of the game before they ever have a chance to show what they might have achieved.

[Unan]

8 hours ago, 1960maaan said:

I can't read through that site, all the adds and pop ups are just too annoying.

I agree there is a good player in there, and if Afobe hadn't got injured who knows. Sadly he was given a chance in a side that didn't suit him at all. With the likes of Weimann & Semenyo making runs he could be an asset, but I think Scott has more 'all round game' and Palmer still won't fit in the team.  
The move will, IMO , all come down to his wage demands . The deal has broken down, is that for now, is it a ploy by one party ? Who knows. There are a lot of things that could be done I guess, but with 3 parts of the deal, all looking out for themselves, it's difficult.

City want him off the wage bill, would like a fee obviously, but I do think that's secondary.
Cardiff like him, but wages will be a problem. Plus I guess they would like him on a free.
Palmer stands to earn £1m by doing nothing. If he moves he will have to take a cut in wages. He will however get a longer deal. He has a young family and wants both money and security.
I guess you could add agents into that. They just seem to want money from all sides.

The only way I see it working is City forget a fee ( though may have to top up his wage ). Palmer takes a pay cut, off set by 3 year deal . Cardiff get a free signing but offer that 3rd year for security to Palmer.

Whether this happens, who knows. It may be more than wages, but Palmer could keep his house and the family settled would be happy enough. It seems like a good deal from the outside. But asking anyone to take something like £250k pay cut is never going to be straight forward.

I'd love this to get done quickly.

On most browsers, normally to the right of the URL bar, you have the option to remove all visual content & only read the article, the button is usually a piece of paper with straight lines across indicating text only.