Mis-Firing or Clinical?

[Harry]

After being a spectacular attacking team in the first part of the season, since the international break we’ve struggled to create and to score. 
Are the strikers not getting the chances they once were, or are they wasting good chances?
Here’s the stats for Shots On Target in October :

QPR. Shots on Target 2. Scored 1. 
Cov. Shots on Target 3. Scored 0. 
Brum. Shots on Target 1. Scored 0. 
PNE. Shots on Target 4. Scored 2. 
Mill. Shots on Target 1. Scored 1. 
WBA. Shots on Target 2. Scored 2. 
Reading. Shots on Target 0. Scored 0. 
 

Total in 7 games. Shots on Target 13. Scored 5. 
 

We’ve gone from a team who’d scored in every game to a team that’s not scored in 3 of the last 7 and only managed 3 shots on target in 3 games. 

Some of these games show that we’ve actually been quite clinical. West Brom and Millwall we basically scored with every on target effort. Whilst vs Preston and QPR we scored with 50% of our on targets efforts. 
But I think quite critically, in the last 7 games, the opposition goalie has only made 8 saves. 
 

The performances we showed at Norwich and Burnley away, and at Blackburn & West Brom away were very good. Performances I enjoyed. 
But on the whole this season, I haven’t been at all satisfied with our overall performances. And this means that when we are bad (Brum away, Reading away, Millwall home), we really stink. 
 

We are just about picking up enough results at the moment to keep us out of the relegation mire, but with the trend being toward poor overall performances of late, I am starting to get a bit worried again, and we need to find the knack of creating and scoring again, as we had done for the first few games. 

Edited October 22, 2022 by Harry

[Sir Geoff]

Imo we have become too slow and too passive. In those early games our tempo was good, passing was quicker and more decisive. Our pressing from the front was organised as was the second press from midfield. Could it be more than a coincidence that this has tailed off since Semenyo has been starting. His pressing is poor and as a consequence Wells has too much ground to cover so eases up earlier allowing the opposition an easier exit route. This then means a midfielder has to try and close but leaves a big gap behind. Our pressing and high tempo earlier in the season was the basis of our good results 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Thought we were outperforming our xG earlier in the season, perhaps this is a correction the other way but a bit worse than we deserve.

I believe that shots to goals ratio, we created a good quality of chances but our conversion rate for individual strikers just felt unsustainably high IMO.

[Alex_BCFC]

We look like relegation fodder based on last 5 or 6 games to me. I’m hopeful we will be consistently inconsistent but I can’t say I’m not worried after todays performances 

[RSW8]

I’m happy to accept inconsistency in results as it’s where we are to coin a phrase. The problem is performances have begun to drop below an acceptable level on a too frequent basis of late. We’re simply not giving ourselves a chance to grind out a result when we perform like today or games against Birmingham, QPR and Millwall when we have been poor for large parts.
 

Performances against the likes of Coventry and Preston weren’t great but gave us a chance to get something out of the games which we did. In short our minimum standards need to improve. 

[Davefevs]

Not saying it’s one thing but Naismith got the ball through the opposition’s initial press which meant we could get our midfielders facing up theirs.

[ExiledAjax]

More to the point we've gone from a team who's average shot registered about 0.14 xG to one that averages about 0.09 xG.

Turning point was the QPR game by that metric. @Davefevs any interesting personnel changes between that game and the preceding one - Burnley? That gap was the international break right? Weimann injury is all I can recall changing. By which I mean he was clearly playing through pain in those first few games after the break. Strapped up and not at his normal full on self.

It's a huge drop. Our average shot after the break has been only 60% as good as prior to it.

It's what explains the drop in scoring, we're not just taking fewer shots, but the ones we are taking are much lower quality.

Edited October 23, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[Loosey Boy]

21 hours ago, Harry said:

After being a spectacular attacking team in the first part of the season, since the international break we’ve struggled to create and to score. 
Are the strikers not getting the chances they once were, or are they wasting good chances?
Here’s the stats for Shots On Target in October :

QPR. Shots on Target 2. Scored 1. 
Cov. Shots on Target 3. Scored 0. 
Brum. Shots on Target 1. Scored 0. 
PNE. Shots on Target 4. Scored 2. 
Mill. Shots on Target 1. Scored 1. 
WBA. Shots on Target 2. Scored 2. 
Reading. Shots on Target 0. Scored 0. 
 

Total in 7 games. Shots on Target 13. Scored 5. 
 

We’ve gone from a team who’d scored in every game to a team that’s not scored in 3 of the last 7 and only managed 3 shots on target in 3 games. 

Some of these games show that we’ve actually been quite clinical. West Brom and Millwall we basically scored with every on target effort. Whilst vs Preston and QPR we scored with 50% of our on targets efforts. 
But I think quite critically, in the last 7 games, the opposition goalie has only made 8 saves. 
 

The performances we showed at Norwich and Burnley away, and at Blackburn & West Brom away were very good. Performances I enjoyed. 
But on the whole this season, I haven’t been at all satisfied with our overall performances. And this means that when we are bad (Brum away, Reading away, Millwall home), we really stink. 
 

We are just about picking up enough results at the moment to keep us out of the relegation mire, but with the trend being toward poor overall performances of late, I am starting to get a bit worried again, and we need to find the knack of creating and scoring again, as we had done for the first few games. 

I’d like to see us return to Wells/Conway up front with AW behind. That was when we looked most potent…..with AW having had a break, hopefully, that will help us, starting with Swansea on Saturday

Then we’ve got AS to come on as an “impact sub” (which is when he scored his goals from earlier in the season)

Edited October 23, 2022 by Loosey Boy

[Midred]

1 hour ago, Loosey Boy said:

I’d like to see us return to Wells/Conway up front with AW behind. That was when we looked most potent…..with AW having had a break, hopefully, that will help us, starting with Swansea on Saturday

Then we’ve got AS to come on as an “impact sub” (which is when he scored his goals from earlier in the season)

I do wonder that after the prolific scoring of Weimann, Conway and then Semenyo on his return as a sub that not scoring for a few games has caused them a drop in confidence and rather than being patient they've snatched at every chance. I remember a few seasons ago that Andi couldn't stop scoring and then Fam came back into the team, the shape changed and the goals dried up. This could be the same with Semenyo starting games now. There is a thread on here with many clamouring for him to start.

[Lack of Action Man]

I hate xG and the fact we have gotten to the point where xG exists…

However, someone did make a valid point on this forum (apologies I forget your username) that in the opening few games of the season, our xG was much lower than the actual goals we were scoring and that this would soon catch up with us (I.e. you could interpret that to mean we had been lucky).

 

 

 

[Red Skin]

19 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Not saying it’s one thing but Naismith got the ball through the opposition’s initial press which meant we could get our midfielders facing up theirs.

That's a biggie for me too.   Despite his errors he's still straight back in for me.

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Red Skin said:

That's a biggie for me too.   Despite his errors he's still straight back in for me.

Me too.

[robin_unreliant]

Naismith is a factor, when did James come back into midfield? He's solid but I always feel he slows us down in terms of the pace we are playing at, which NP was saying is a key part of the problem. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

On 23/10/2022 at 18:12, OddBallJim said:

I hate xG and the fact we have gotten to the point where xG exists…

However, someone did make a valid point on this forum (apologies I forget your username) that in the opening few games of the season, our xG was much lower than the actual goals we were scoring and that this would soon catch up with us (I.e. you could interpret that to mean we had been lucky).

 

 

 

Yeah it was, may not have been me who mentioned it, but we were creating but outscoring our chance creation if that makes sense.

We were clinical but whether those numbers could he sustained, especially with a young player like Conway coming in, he would likely have had a dip at some stage- inevitable.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I've had another quick look at shots v goals ratio, etc. Excluding own goals.

6 goals from 62 shots in the last 7 games. The conversion rate is a shade below 10 percent...9.677 pct.

Whereas in the first 10 games, and I am excluding own goals, we scored 18 goals from 114 shots. 11.40 per game, but a conversion rate which was much better of 15.789 pct!

Neither are the basis for a sustainable top 6 push though, IMO. Question is what is closest to our baseline, the 1st 10 or the last 7?

[Mr Popodopolous]

Conway for example there could be better stat sites, but Sofascore suggested that he got 5 goals from 11 shots in 6 League games.

That's unsustainable, an elite level- probably breaks a load of models?

[Rocking Red Cyril]

8 hours ago, robin_unreliant said:

Naismith is a factor, when did James come back into midfield? He's solid but I always feel he slows us down in terms of the pace we are playing at, which NP was saying is a key part of the problem. 

When is Naismith expected to fit to play then 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Would be interesting to see divisional averages too. Be it for strikers or for sides for conversion rates adjusting out own goals or (ha!) penalties and how we stack up, or otherwise.

Made a quick start.

Last season, 1,385 goals and 105 penalties. Penalties had an 80 pct conversion rate which meant 84 were converted.

Not yet added up shots per game on the site...or done any real work on conversion rates excluding penalties, own goals or started on any spreadsheet, graphs or charts.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Simon79]

Think there is a number of factors, firstly I don’t think we were really ever creating a lot, but we were clinical. Naismith took a lot of stick for some of his bloopers, but maybe people are starting to see how important he was to our overall performance & the way he seemed to get others to up their games. He also broke the lines/press constantly, this then creates more overloads/options moving forward. I also think we’ve lost some energy in the midfield, Williams too many games? James coming back in slows us down? Massengo’s energy being a loss? Then up front I think to me it looks like we’ve tried to get Semenyo in the starting eleven too quickly, this has then interrupted partnerships & we seem to of lost our balance a bit. So all in all, for the reasons above, I think we are creating less & we weren’t creating a lot before, but we were clinical. COYR 

[Clutton Caveman]

14 hours ago, Simon79 said:

Think there is a number of factors, firstly I don’t think we were really ever creating a lot, but we were clinical. Naismith took a lot of stick for some of his bloopers, but maybe people are starting to see how important he was to our overall performance & the way he seemed to get others to up their games. He also broke the lines/press constantly, this then creates more overloads/options moving forward. I also think we’ve lost some energy in the midfield, Williams too many games? James coming back in slows us down? Massengo’s energy being a loss? Then up front I think to me it looks like we’ve tried to get Semenyo in the starting eleven too quickly, this has then interrupted partnerships & we seem to of lost our balance a bit. So all in all, for the reasons above, I think we are creating less & we weren’t creating a lot before, but we were clinical. COYR 

I think there are 2 main factors

a) Teams have worked us out and don't leave any space in behind. They know when we have a lot of possession with no spaces to run into, we become frustrated and negative.  At this point we are easy to take on the break or we lose the ball in our half.

b) Conway has lost his zip, either because is tired or he thinks he has arrived and so runs less.

[Mr Popodopolous]

23 minutes ago, Clutton Caveman said:

I think there are 2 main factors

a) Teams have worked us out and don't leave any space in behind. They know when we have a lot of possession with no spaces to run into, we become frustrated and negative.  At this point we are easy to take on the break or we lose the ball in our half.

b) Conway has lost his zip, either because is tired or he thinks he has arrived and so runs less.

There was also a big surprise factor when Conway got a proper run, and again 5 goals from 11 shots in 6 games, none of them penalties is remarkable but unsustainable.

[Davefevs]

31 minutes ago, Clutton Caveman said:

I think there are 2 main factors

a) Teams have worked us out and don't leave any space in behind. They know when we have a lot of possession with no spaces to run into, we become frustrated and negative.  At this point we are easy to take on the break or we lose the ball in our half.

b) Conway has lost his zip, either because is tired or he thinks he has arrived and so runs less.

The dangers of being a swift attacking team is not being patient when you play against teams who slow you down. We don’t probe for openings, we want to do it in one pass. We don’t move the opposition defence around. We don’t create space for a late midfield run (hence why our midfielders don’t score many), etc etc. I think had we shown more patience against Reading we walk out with a 0-0, a lacklustre 0-0 maybe, but we might also get Reading fans on their back too. We had a little period in the first half where the game might’ve turned, but we didn’t carry it on.

Swansea are a possession heavy side. If we press high we need to be ready to get back into shape very quickly if our press is broken. 

[Champfan45]

I wonder why Semenyos pressing has dropped off. Last year he had the 2nd highest pressures per 90 in the division.

[Davefevs]

6 hours ago, Champfan45 said:

I wonder why Semenyos pressing has dropped off. Last year he had the 2nd highest pressures per 90 in the division.

Because last season he was the “ball presser” and Martin the “lane stopper”, ie Martin more positional in the press, stopping balls going into midfield, Semenyo haring around whilst Martin adjusted around him.

No Martin alongside him this season, means a different pressing set-up and roles.  If you have Wells or Conway alongside you, you can work together to split the times you have to perform each specific role, so at times Antoine is now stopping lanes by his positions, and not having to hare around.

That’s my view.

[maxjak]

On 28/10/2022 at 11:02, Davefevs said:

Because last season he was the “ball presser” and Martin the “lane stopper”, ie Martin more positional in the press, stopping balls going into midfield, Semenyo haring around whilst Martin adjusted around him.

No Martin alongside him this season, means a different pressing set-up and roles.  If you have Wells or Conway alongside you, you can work together to split the times you have to perform each specific role, so at times Antoine is now stopping lanes by his positions, and not having to hare around.

That’s my view.

Superb Analysis..........spot on.

[Davefevs]

4 hours ago, maxjak said:

Superb Analysis..........spot on.

Thank you, much appreciated.

Today, Antoine was more the pass blocker into Grimes…although Conway and Wells mixed it up a bit.