Does DaveFevs Have The Solution?

[BTRFTG]

Despite all the positives last night we were again ultimately undone by woeful distribution in the final third. Dead ball or in play City's inability to clear the first man, pick out a team mate, avoid passing to space, avoid over-hitting the pass or even managing to keep the thing in play - what stats are there to show where City compare with others in the EFL? I find it difficult to identify who City's worst culprit in this respect as they all appear equally inept at playing a final, quality pass. Puzzling given they all play decent football in getting to that point. Probably also something to do with positioning and movement of strikers in the box but its incredible how few decent chances we create compared to those possession and positioning suggest we should.

[maxjak]

Did you not see 19 year old Alex Scott last night?  He made the best forward positive run and the best defence splitting pass so far this season......he performed to his international level last night, and did not deserve to be on the losing side.

Edited November 2, 2022 by maxjak

[BTRFTG]

6 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Did you not see 19 year old Alex Scott last night?

I did. But whilst he's good in space with ball at feet his final ball is often as poor as the rest (I'll ignore his falling over when challenged.) It would be churlish to criticise that wonderful, mazy run he made into the box, but narrow-angle, flash wide rather than drag back to unmarked players in front of goal wasn't the percentage call. Not just Scott but plenty of his corners and free kicks this year haven't cleared the first man - question is why?

[Mr Popodopolous]

I was just thinking about that @BTRFTG the great run and shot by Scott.

Could/should he have looked for someone or was he right to go for goal?

[BTRFTG]

Just now, Mr Popodopolous said:

I was just thinking about that @BTRFTG the great run and shot by Scott.

Could/should he have looked for someone or was he right to go for goal?

Hindsight's a wonderful thing and never criticise a player for shooting but there were unmarked players waiting for the pull back. Yet another great position in possession that translated to nothing. We do that so often.

[Davefevs]

37 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

Despite all the positives last night we were again ultimately undone by woeful distribution in the final third. Dead ball or in play City's inability to clear the first man, pick out a team mate, avoid passing to space, avoid over-hitting the pass or even managing to keep the thing in play - what stats are there to show where City compare with others in the EFL? I find it difficult to identify who City's worst culprit in this respect as they all appear equally inept at playing a final, quality pass. Puzzling given they all play decent football in getting to that point. Probably also something to do with positioning and movement of strikers in the box but its incredible how few decent chances we create compared to those possession and positioning suggest we should.

If you’re really interested in stats, there are paid for services like Wyscout (relatively cheap for data, video not so), Statsbomb (extortionate), or free services like FBRef who’ve just swapped from getting a subset of data from Statsbomb to using Opta.

But with all data (football data) the art is understanding the context in which the data is collected, and how you can piece bits together to form a hypothesis.

One person I know of flits from using possession one week, to shots another, to shots on target another to frame their agenda.  Last night shows the problem with doing that.  We won the possession, we won the shots, we drew the shots on target, but two of our off target shots crashed against the woodwork.  You can’t just use stats in isolation, unless you really want to look at the scoreline!  That is of course the one that matters.

FBref:

https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/Championship-Stats

Heres the kind of data you can look at:

 

[BTRFTG]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

If you’re really interested in stats, there are paid for services like Wyscout (relatively cheap for data, video not so), Statsbomb (extortionate), or free services like FBRef who’ve just swapped from getting a subset of data from Statsbomb to using Opta.

But with all data (football data) the art is understanding the context in which the data is collected, and how you can piece bits together to form a hypothesis.

One person I know of flits from using possession one week, to shots another, to shots on target another to frame their agenda.  Last night shows the problem with doing that.  We won the possession, we won the shots, we drew the shots on target, but two of our off target shots crashed against the woodwork.  You can’t just use stats in isolation, unless you really want to look at the scoreline!  That is of course the one that matters.

FBref:

https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/Championship-Stats

Heres the kind of data you can look at:

 

Thanks, not I'm sure I understand any of it. My point was somewhat rather more expansive in it seems to me that beyond most clubs we regularly get the ball into good areas of the opponent's half and then simply cede possession without creating threat. I guess somebody somewhere measures this but interested to hear what others think?

For example, how many dead balls are first touched by opposition? Are there crossing stats; how many under/over hit, hit behind, hit to opponents et al?

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

Thanks, not I'm sure I understand any of it. My point was somewhat rather more expansive in it seems to me that beyond most clubs we regularly get the ball into good areas of the opponent's half and then simply cede possession without creating threat. I guess somebody somewhere measures this but interested to hear what others think?

For example, how many dead balls are first touched by opposition? Are there crossing stats; how many under/over hit, hit behind, hit to opponents et al?

There are stats, and you can see basic crossing volumes versus crossing success in the FBRef data.  But if you want the level of detail you’re after, then it’s beyond the money you and I can justify spending, ie. You’re in the domain of pro clubs.

My personal view is that too often we take the first chance to cross / create, rather than wait for the optimal opportunity.  We don’t probe for the right time to play the killer ball, like Man City do for example.  We are a bit rushed in our approach when we get into the final third.  Did we really need to put in some of those “percentage” crosses last night, or showed a bit of patience to work a better opening.  when I say this, I’m talking about when we are in controlled possession, rather than on the counter attack.  When on the counter you are trying to use your attack in a different way, and time / speed is of the essence.

[BTRFTG]

12 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

There are stats, and you can see basic crossing volumes versus crossing success in the FBRef data.  But if you want the level of detail you’re after, then it’s beyond the money you and I can justify spending, ie. You’re in the domain of pro clubs.

My personal view is that too often we take the first chance to cross / create, rather than wait for the optimal opportunity.  We don’t probe for the right time to play the killer ball, like Man City do for example.  We are a bit rushed in our approach when we get into the final third.  Did we really need to put in some of those “percentage” crosses last night, or showed a bit of patience to work a better opening.  when I say this, I’m talking about when we are in controlled possession, rather than on the counter attack.  When on the counter you are trying to use your attack in a different way, and time / speed is of the essence.

Last point is telling as it seems to me we create far more telling chances on the counter than when in controlled possession.

[AppyDAZE]

58 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I was just thinking about that @BTRFTG the great run and shot by Scott.

Could/should he have looked for someone or was he right to go for goal?

Wrong, in my opinion. Conway was in a great position and if Scott had have tapped it to him, I don't think he would have missed from where he was. Amazing run though. Had a great game so it's hard to be critical.

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

Last point is telling as it seems to me we create far more telling chances on the counter than when in controlled possession.

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2022/08/english-championship-stats-2022-23/
 

[REDOXO]

57% of a message is delivered by context and what you see and hear. Stats are extremely useful, but deliver little by the way of context and often make false comparisons. 
 

Without referring to statistics/Exel/AI in any way. WE hit the woodwork twice, had several good opportunities to score and had the best player by six country mikes in Alex Scott. 
 

However crossing, dead ball or otherwise was worse than crap, we got caught under a cross and we’re unable to stop the opposing team from seeing the game out. 
 

The tackling at times was industrial and the boy who hit Williams was a clear straight red. We do not get the rub of the green, usually, from refereeing decisions, but you make your own luck which Pearson referred to! 

[BCFC Rich]

I agree with the OP overall, but thought we actually created a lot yesterday. 15/16 shots on goal 5 really good chances, actually felt there was a bit of bad luck + forwards not taking chances. What was our XG? where is the best place to get that info?

[brad blit]

He prefers to be called "King Fevs" in his inner circle, you'll be wise to adhere to his simple request in the future before asking for his assistance again  

[grifty]

1 hour ago, BTRFTG said:

Hindsight's a wonderful thing and never criticise a player for shooting but there were unmarked players waiting for the pull back. Yet another great position in possession that translated to nothing. We do that so often.

I think in fairness to Scott for the first dribble, it would have been quite difficult to pull the ball back as far to AW on the penalty spot for a shot due to the angle he was running. NW was in and around the 6 yard box but marked. Scott went to trick the goalie at the near post and because he’s hit it waist high, the goalie has been able to react.

His 2nd run, when he got to the edge of the area and shot, the only person to his left open was Jay Dasilva. Scott would be better off lumping it all the way back to Max instead of setting up Jay for a shot, so I don’t blame him for shooting there either.

I felt last night Scott actually felt let down by some of his team mates and thought he’s going to have to do this himself. Really felt like a player taking the game by the scruff of the neck. Not seen anyone do that for us for years.

The set pieces, I think we recognised we had no real aerial threat so tried short corners, which is a good idea if we had a plan for them, which we didn’t. All we did was play it short and then lump it in anyway, or it was blocked.

I think we should just let Scott stay on them but instruct him everytime just to whip it in at the 6 yard box. The more he takes, the better he will get. There will be some that he’ll get wrong, but it’s all about learning and improving.

Edited November 2, 2022 by grifty

[Mr Popodopolous]

12 minutes ago, BCFC Rich said:

I agree with the OP overall, but thought we actually created a lot yesterday. 15/16 shots on goal 5 really good chances, actually felt there was a bit of bad luck + forwards not taking chances. What was our XG? where is the best place to get that info?

XG using the Experimental 361 had us winning.

1.8-0.5 in our favour.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[The Original OTIB]

45 minutes ago, BTRFTG said:

Last point is telling as it seems to me we create far more telling chances on the counter than when in controlled possession.

We win more games with less possession, fact, in recent times. "Controlled" possession leads to over thinking. We are better off  " off the cuff" going forward after turnovers. We don't have the nous for consistent, thoughtful build up.

[1960maaan]

I must admit, I thought he'd ran the ball close to the line and tried to pull it back, but he couldn't  get it any further back.
Having watched it a few times, it looks like the square ball was not only on, but the obvious pass. He's unlikely to score from there, but whether he got excited or missed hit a pass, Nahki is in a great position for the cross.

 

[And Its Smith]

14 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

I must admit, I thought he'd ran the ball close to the line and tried to pull it back, but he couldn't  get it any further back.
Having watched it a few times, it looks like the square ball was not only on, but the obvious pass. He's unlikely to score from there, but whether he got excited or missed hit a pass, Nahki is in a great position for the cross.

 

I don’t think he shot. I think it was a misplaced cross. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

14 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

I must admit, I thought he'd ran the ball close to the line and tried to pull it back, but he couldn't  get it any further back.
Having watched it a few times, it looks like the square ball was not only on, but the obvious pass. He's unlikely to score from there, but whether he got excited or missed hit a pass, Nahki is in a great position for the cross.

 

Isn't Nakhi offside in that pic though? Maybe not by much but...

[Sheltons Army]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Isn't Nakhi offside in that pic though? Maybe not by much but...

Behind the ball , just , Mr P

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

Behind the ball , just , Mr P

Thanks Sheltons. Looked at the pic across the line several times now and did wonder if he was just about level or just ahead of the last defender.

Had Scott been able to get it across, tap in?

[grifty]

47 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

Behind the ball , just , Mr P

Linesman would have still flagged him offside like he did from the long ball from Max when Wells was at least 10 yards onside!

[maxjak]

2 hours ago, REDOXO said:

57% of a message is delivered by context and what you see and hear. Stats are extremely useful, but deliver little by the way of context and often make false comparisons. 
 

Without referring to statistics/Exel/AI in any way. WE hit the woodwork twice, had several good opportunities to score and had the best player by six country mikes in Alex Scott. 
 

However crossing, dead ball or otherwise was worse than crap, we got caught under a cross and we’re unable to stop the opposing team from seeing the game out. 
 

The tackling at times was industrial and the boy who hit Williams was a clear straight red. We do not get the rub of the green, usually, from refereeing decisions, but you make your own luck which Pearson referred to! 

Sheffield Utd didn't make their own luck...........they had a referee to do it for them?...........When will we have a Ref to do that for us?  What with the highest number of games without a penalty, added   to the men in black missing offsides and red card offences, it is not so much bad luck, as a curse.  It all balances out over a season i hear people say...............well i have not seen much pheckin balance,  ever since Hull stole a penalty in the 1st game of our season!! 

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by maxjak

[SBB]

55 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

Behind the ball , just , Mr P

New to me but behind the ball doesn’t matter anymore and is no longer in the rules. Tottenham’s disallowed goal in the champions league last week taught me that. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 minutes ago, maxjak said:

ever since Hull stole a penalty in the 2nd game of our season!! 

 

1st game.

Tone set early.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[maxjak]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

1st game.

Tone set early.

Sorry,  of course..........first game!  Just edited it.

Edited November 2, 2022 by maxjak

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, maxjak said:

Sorry of course..........first game!

Do totally agree with you though, the ratio of big decisions, lucky or otherwise. Unbelievable all told.

For a time the penalty stuff could be explained by how much the opposition might dominate us on a regular basis, but we're much more competitive now despite a few no shows and yet??

Edited November 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[The Nest Egg]

Jay Dasilva couldn't cross a road. He's a decent player at this level but don't we just see that shortcoming week after week 

Edited November 2, 2022 by An Outstanding Human

[1960maaan]

14 minutes ago, SBB said:

New to me but behind the ball doesn’t matter anymore and is no longer in the rules. Tottenham’s disallowed goal in the champions league last week taught me that. 

No, Kane was offside when Emerson (?) heads the ball. The stupid part of the rule is not , it doesn't matter if you're behind the ball. The stupid part is it dose,'t matter what direction the ball is going. 
And after decades of "you can't be offside if you play the ball backwards"