Points needed to stay up - shall we put this one to bed?

[Curr Avon]

With City on 44 points, I think that 1, or 2 wins maximum will see us clear of relegation based on the last 10 year average of 44.2 points.

 

That's modelled on the team in 21st place having needed 1 more point than 22nd to stay up, as follows:

 

2021/22 - 40

 

2020/21 - 44

 

2019/20 - 49

 

2018/19 - 41

 

2017/18 - 43

 

2016/17 - 52

 

2015/16 - 41

 

2014/15 - 42

 

2013/14 - 45

 

2012/13 - 45

 

Do you agree?

 

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Curr Avon

[pillred]

1 minute ago, Curr Avon said:

With City on 44 points, I think that 1, or 2 wins maximum will see us clear of relegation based on the last 10 year average of 44.2 points.

That's based on the team in 22nd place having needed 1 more point than 23rd to stay up, as follows:

2021/22 - 40

2020/21 - 44

2019/20 - 49

2018/19 - 41

2017/18 - 43

2016/17 - 52

2015/16 - 41

2014/15 - 42

2013/14 - 45

2012/13 - 45

Do you agree?

Well considering how many games are left yes, I imagine you would get odds at the bookies that would enable you to retire in sheer comfort if the most unlikely thing ever to happen in football history were to occur.

[BCFCGav]

We’re safe. We can dream of play-offs and FA Cup’s for a bit instead of worrying about League 1

[And Its Smith]

No need to think about it. 1 win in 13 games needed isn’t worth thinking about. Only teams in any trouble at all are QPR and below but really it’s Rotherham and below in my opinion 

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

No need to think about it. 1 win in 13 games needed isn’t worth thinking about. Only teams in any trouble at all are QPR and below but really it’s Rotherham and below in my opinion 

I think Cardiff are still right to be a little nervous. It's unlikely they go down, but it's possible if they get a run of bad luck.

Generally I don't see a lot of movement in the division between now and the end. 

The top 2 are done.

Play off teams will be Boro, Millwall, Luton plus one other - probably one of Norwich or West Brom. Blackburn and Watford have a chance though. 6th place is the most contested of the meaningful positions.

Relegated will be Blackpool, Huddersfield and then one other, most likely Wigan but maybe Rotherham or Cardiff.

[And Its Smith]

4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I think Cardiff are still right to be a little nervous. It's unlikely they go down, but it's possible if they get a run of bad luck.

Generally I don't see a lot of movement in the division between now and the end. 

The top 2 are done.

Play off teams will be Boro, Millwall, Luton plus one other - probably one of Norwich or West Brom. Blackburn and Watford have a chance though. 6th place is the most contested of the meaningful positions.

Relegated will be Blackpool, Huddersfield and then one other, most likely Wigan but maybe Rotherham or Cardiff.

I don’t think Millwall to reach the play offs but agree that most of it will remain 

[cidercity1987]

1 minute ago, And Its Smith said:

I don’t think Millwall to reach the play offs but agree that most of it will remain 

Millwalls run in looks favourable tbf

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

100/1 to go down with Skybet.

If I remember correctly we were about 11/4 after West Brom on Boxing Day.

Superb 8 weeks.

[And Its Smith]

15 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Millwalls run in looks favourable tbf

Yeah I just think they are having their good run now and will drop off and someone else will come in and overtake them 

[Dr Balls]

11 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

I don’t think Millwall to reach the play offs but agree that most of it will remain 

I think Millwall will make the playoffs. Defensively strong, concede very few and no one likes going to their place to play. 

Personally I don’t want Watford to make the playoffs. Their ridiculous merry-go-round of managers is due a comeuppance even if that means Bilic is the latest victim of the system. Plus it reduces their parachute payments if they don’t go straight back up. Remember a few seasons back they sacked Nige with 2 games of the PL season to go after the disaster of Ranieri, got them a chance of staying up, and then they lost thev2 games after he was sacked and got relegated. Madness!

 

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

1 hour ago, Curr Avon said:

2012/13 - 45

I may have miss read your post but we went down in 2012/13 and Barnsley needed 55 points to stay up as both Wolves and Peterborough had 50+ points.

Think Wolves got relegated with 54?

[Red-Robbo]

24 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I think Cardiff are still right to be a little nervous. It's unlikely they go down, but it's possible if they get a run of bad luck.

Generally I don't see a lot of movement in the division between now and the end. 

The top 2 are done.

Play off teams will be Boro, Millwall, Luton plus one other - probably one of Norwich or West Brom. Blackburn and Watford have a chance though. 6th place is the most contested of the meaningful positions.

Relegated will be Blackpool, Huddersfield and then one other, most likely Wigan but maybe Rotherham or Cardiff.

 

West Brom seem the team with momentum, but whether they can bank enough to make-up for their disastrous start is moot.

Down the other end, Wigan seem to specialise in last-ditch escapes. If they stayed up and Cardiff got sucked into the mire I might treat myself to a satisfied smile. 

[chowie]

Think 46 with a decent GD will be enough this season. 

[cidercity1987]

13 minutes ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

I may have miss read your post but we went down in 2012/13 and Barnsley needed 55 points to stay up as both Wolves and Peterborough had 50+ points.

Think Wolves got relegated with 54?

Yeah Peterborough with 54 , the same season 68 got Leicester in the play offs

[Curr Avon]

48 minutes ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

I may have miss read your post but we went down in 2012/13 and Barnsley needed 55 points to stay up as both Wolves and Peterborough had 50+ points.

Think Wolves got relegated with 54?

My apologies, it was 55 points not 45, taking the 10 year average to 45.2

Edited February 26, 2023 by Curr Avon

[RedRock]

56 minutes ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

I may have miss read your post but we went down in 2012/13 and Barnsley needed 55 points to stay up as both Wolves and Peterborough had 50+ points.

Think Wolves got relegated with 54?

Always think the safety target is 57 points.

Then we rest easy and start planning for next season’s promotion winning campaign. 

[Alex_BCFC]

14 minutes ago, RedRock said:

Always think the safety target is 57 points.

Then we rest easy and start planning for next season’s promotion winning campaign. 

Not a chance it will be anywhere near 57. Not that we need worry about it. But more likely 48-50. 

[cityexile]

All three at the bottom have pretty identical points which makes me wonder if it will be a little higher than the average. Could well see it about 50. Only needs one of the bottom three to increase their average at all to push towards that.

Always a minor intellectual head scratcher for me as to what is the right way to measure historical safety is anyway. Should it be one more than third bottom? Kind of think it should be the average of 4th from bottom, the first team actually safe. Maybe they finished 3 clear because they beat the team below them, and needed the points they got to actually be safe? Otherwise you get in the situation of saying safety this year is 46 points (unless you are one of the bottom 3 in which case it is 50). 

Silly thing for me to worry about really. Don’t think it is going to effect us either way. Having looked a stretch a month ago, will be a bit disappointed with less than 60 now.

[ExiledAjax]

30 minutes ago, RedRock said:

Always think the safety target is 57 points.

Then we rest easy and start planning for next season’s promotion winning campaign. 

57 is getting you 15th or 16th in the vast majority of seasons. It's way more than you 'need' for safety.

Edited February 26, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Murraysrightplum]

We should be looking up not down now

[RedRock]

26 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

57 is getting you 15th or 16th in the vast majority of seasons. It's way more than you 'need' for safety.

Yeah, but we’re Bristol City with an unerring ability to find a way to make the impossible, possible, and often not in a good way.

Remember, we are about the only Club in the League to find a way to make 3-0 a dangerous score.

[bcfc01]

We have enough points to stay up now imo, but another win or three points should seal it. It would be nice to do that at Cardiff.

I can't see any remarkable turn around in form of the bottom three, so even allowing for a slight upturn on the last 8 results;

Team            Current Pts.   Season Pts ppg.   Last 8 ppg   Av Pppg   Games Left     Predicted Pts

Wigan                31                    .94                     .88              .91              13                     43

Hudds                31                    .94                     .75              .85              13                     42

Blckpool            31                     .91                    .63               .77              12                     40

By the same token, even allowing for our current form and those just in front/behind, I can't see us finishing any higher than 11th. All things considered, I think that would be ok.

*QPR need to get a few points or they could find themselves in deep trouble, one win in the last 18 on 17th December.

[WessexPest]

2 hours ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

100/1 to go down with Skybet.

If I remember correctly we were about 11/4 after West Brom on Boxing Day.

Superb 8 weeks.

Incredible. Boxing Day was exactly two months ago today - we were utterly abject that day (and that was by no means a one-off “performance” at the time) and I was convinced we were doomed.

Have hardly put a foot wrong since and of course undefeated. A blissful two months!

Someone mentioned Cardiff and it being “unlikely” they go down. Looking at the table I think there’s every chance they could get sucked in to the bottom three. Huddersfield have a game in hand and Cardiff have lost more games than bottom club Wigan. Plus practically every season there’s a team who looked stuffed in about late February, but then proceed to put a decent run together that allows them to pull off a Houdini act.

Either way, hopefully we can heighten the Blueturds’ relegation anxieties next weekend!

EDIT: Playoffs are out of the question this season, there’s simply no way we are going to finish top six.

Edited February 26, 2023 by WessexPest

[Maltshoveller]

Points needed =

To stay up =1 more than the team in 22nd

Play off = 1 more than team in 7th

Simple as that

 

I will get my coat!!!

[phantom]

We've been safe for a long time 

[Northern Red]

54 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

We have enough points to stay up now imo, but another win or three points should seal it. It would be nice to do that at Cardiff.

I can't see any remarkable turn around in form of the bottom three, so even allowing for a slight upturn on the last 8 results;

Team            Current Pts.   Season Pts ppg.   Last 8 ppg   Av Pppg   Games Left     Predicted Pts

Wigan                31                    .94                     .88              .91              13                     43

Hudds                31                    .94                     .75              .85              13                     42

Blckpool            31                     .91                    .63               .77              12                     40

By the same token, even allowing for our current form and those just in front/behind, I can't see us finishing any higher than 11th. All things considered, I think that would be ok.

*QPR need to get a few points or they could find themselves in deep trouble, one win in the last 18 on 17th December.

Their next 6 games include Rotherham, Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan. If they're still down there by that point then they're bang in trouble.

[Robbored]

12 minutes ago, phantom said:

We've been safe for a long time 

Not if you take any notice of Ian Gay………….

[Bazooka Joe]

If we don't get another single point (perish the thought), this will be a pointless thread.

Right now, I'd be happy with 39 points from our remaining 13 games.

If you don't ask, you don't get.

[Show Me The Money!]

We're plenty safe. Should all be about keeping this momentum going into next season

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Robbored said:

Not if you take any notice of Ian Gay………….

Don’t know if this has already been said, but in the latest podcast Ian came up with twelve positive points with regard to the Hull win.

I was tempted to ask who was impersonating him and what they had done with him.

I’ve yet to listen to the rest of the podcast where I believe they were going to talk about negative points ( hopefully a short discussion).