Assuming he goes

[Mr Popodopolous]

According to a very quick analysis by me..

PL clubs spent £152.5m or was it just £152m in the summer on Championship players and then figure diminishes when you factor out sales from Burnley and Watford.

Some £88m of that went on just 5 players- Pope, Collins, McNeil and Cornet from Burnley and Dennis from Watford.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[LondonBristolian]

21 minutes ago, Loco Rojo said:

Or no club is willing to meet our valuation/s, his contract winds down  and he leaves for nothing/compensation like others have done. 

I feels like more clubs are coming around to the idea of not spending huge sums of money anymore and waiting for contracts to end and get players for very little/free.

Tricky one isn't it.

That's a risk but he's got two and a half year's left so we certainly don't need to factor that in within this window. You could argue the Summer is the ideal time to maximise value though. 

[CiderCraig]

On 12/01/2023 at 09:20, DaveF said:

I imagine they would see Scott as a potential Moutinho replacement? Still a good player but at 36 he probably doesn't have a huge amount of time left.

is he ill? 

[Roger Red Hat]

23 minutes ago, AshtonRobin21 said:

Semenyo is the one I’m concerned about. If he is here past this window, we lose a big chunk of his value instantly due to his contract length. 

Now that he's got some form back and scoring again, I'm more concerned about losing his goals at this time and getting relegated! I think we need him to be here this season. I also think B'muff is a crap destination for him, they could well get relegated.

[alexukhc]

1 hour ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

According to TalkSport Wolves have walked away from a deal for Scott, not being prepared to meet City's valuation. 

Dunno if you know but talksport know a lot about us 

1 hour ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

According to TalkSport Wolves have walked away from a deal for Scott, not being prepared to meet City's valuation. 

Dunno if you know but talksport know a lot about us 

[Mr Popodopolous]

I've just done some analysis.

PL clubs spent a GROSS £1,956,150,000 in the summer.

Of that £152-152.5m on Championship players and of that £88m was on the 5 players across Burnley and Watford.

The bargaining power of Championship clubs therefore ain't great especially for ones who haven't just been relegated. 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2022/sep/01/football-transfer-window-summer-2022-mens-deals-premier-league-la-liga-bundesliga-serie-a-ligue-1-club-guides-deadline-day

7.77 pct of gross spend only and when you strip out the Burnley and Watford sales it falls to a mere 3.27 pct.

In that context £25m for Scott in January is fanciful, sorry. Although it means we keep him for a while longer and that's good!

Edited January 13, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[And Its Smith]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Well I will stick with the official line for now fine- all we can do I guess.

A strict reading of the EFL regs would suggest they habe certain powers and or rights especially with the recent cases and changes...but we'd have heard about it by now surely.

Pearson said it’s fine. Hopefully he knows!

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

Pearson said it’s fine. Hopefully he knows!

Okay I'll try to be more positive and stick with the we need to free up wages to add people until we hear otherwise.

[pillred]

1 hour ago, petehinton said:

Expect him to be sold to them on Tuesday then

You old cynic :laugh:.

[JoeAman08]

33 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I've just done some analysis.

PL clubs spent a GROSS £1,956,150,000 in the summer.

Of that £152-152.5m on Championship players and of that £88m was on the 5 players across Burnley and Watford.

The bargaining power of Championship clubs therefore ain't great especially for ones who haven't just been relegated. 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2022/sep/01/football-transfer-window-summer-2022-mens-deals-premier-league-la-liga-bundesliga-serie-a-ligue-1-club-guides-deadline-day

7.77 pct of gross spend only and when you strip out the Burnley and Watford sales it falls to a mere 3.27 pct.

In that context £25m for Scott in January is fanciful, sorry. Although it means we keep him for a while longer and that's good!

It isn’t fanciful. It is the cost of business in January imo. We have every right to chuck 20-25% on top of a valuation midseason for a first team regular. I don’t for one second think we want to sell Scott this window so you set a price and stick to it. 
 

Semenyo on the other hand, think we’d be more open to negotiation. Injuries for forwards have come at a bad time though. Selling Semenyo this window for 7-8m up front should allow us to get 2-3 in to help see us through the season. Ideally loans who may eat up a chunk of that fee but help see us over the line with some leftover. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

8 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

It isn’t fanciful. It is the cost of business in January imo. We have every right to chuck 20-25% on top of a valuation midseason for a first team regular. I don’t for one second think we want to sell Scott this window so you set a price and stick to it. 
 

Semenyo on the other hand, think we’d be more open to negotiation. Injuries for forwards have come at a bad time though. Selling Semenyo this window for 7-8m up front should allow us to get 2-3 in to help see us through the season. Ideally loans who may eat up a chunk of that fee but help see us over the line with some leftover. 

Except it isn't. I see where you are going with it but that is a clear and sharp decline in respect of PL from  Championship clubs. PL clubs have spent another £100-150m this January  btw using that same source...zero to Championship clubs thusfar. Let's see how the figures stack up come the end of Jan however. 

Agreed on the Semenyo point although Burnley bidding £2.5m for Obafemi is an interesting marker. Clearly he is worth more than £2.5m but selling clubs and their players are but one of many for PL clubs and even perhaps strongly financially placed Championship ones.

3.27 pct of gross spend for non freshly relegated Championship clubs feels extremely low. Summer market I know.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Illustrative example.

Wolves are paying according to reports, £10m for Lemina and £15m for someone called Joao Gomes.

Thus the need for Scott, who would cost that price on his own is reduced, certainly as of January.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, AshtonRobin21 said:

We are protected long-term with Scott.

Teams either pay the fee, or walk away. 

Semenyo is the one I’m concerned about. If he is here past this window, we lose a big chunk of his value instantly due to his contract length. 

Scott’s value will remain the same, or increase, through to the summer.

Yes imo Semenyo is the one we need to sell. 

He'll have just 12 months left and then we get into HNM territory. We're kinda almost there already. 

We will lose a couple of million by keeping him. The way I look at it is, would I be happy if we signed Semenyo on loan paying a few million for a loan fee? And the answer is no. 

[Davefevs]

18 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Except it isn't. I see where you are going with it but that is a clear and sharp decline in respect of PL from  Championship clubs. PL clubs have spent another £100-150m this January  btw using that same source...zero to Championship clubs thusfar. Let's see how the figures stack up come the end of Jan however. 

Agreed on the Semenyo point although Burnley bidding £2.5m for Obafemi is an interesting marker. Clearly he is worth more than £2.5m but selling clubs and their players are but one of many for PL clubs and even perhaps strongly financially placed Championship ones.

3.27 pct of gross spend for non freshly relegated Championship clubs feels extremely low. Summer market I know.

For the right player, PL clubs will still pay Champ clubs good fees.

Obafemi is in a different situation to Semenyo.  Their manager isn’t exactly talking about him in glowing terms, suggests to me they want to move him on.  Whereas we don’t.  That affects the price massively.

Personally I think any club interested will be given a starting amount of £15m, whether that’s right or not.  If they genuinely want him, they’ll then start to look to see whether there’s any wiggle room.

[marmite]

We have 2 players , Scott and Semenyo ,  who may both be with us the rest of the season. 

Scott great,  because he's happy to stay here and develop. He will give 100% .

Semenyo, if he wants away will be less happy. Hopefully he still gives his best but if he sulks, neither him nor the club will benefit.

If we have to lose one now, it's Semenyo for me.

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Yes imo Semenyo is the one we need to sell. 

He'll have just 12 months left and then we get into HNM territory. We're kinda almost there already. 

We will lose a couple of million by keeping him. The way I look at it is, would I be happy if we signed Semenyo on loan paying a few million for a loan fee? And the answer is no. 

For me I think it comes down to whether we see any chance that Semenyo will extend his contract here or not.

His own position may have changed as he’s gone through a bit of a rollercoaster this season.  The highs of World Cup selection of the back of a good end of last season.  The lows of injury, loss of form, loss of being an automatic starter.  That might also have cooled interest from the “right clubs”. Hypothetically he might really fancy Palace but not Bournemouth and it’s now only Bournemouth interested.

Lots of uncertainty created.  All whilst he’s on a contract signed in 2019, which means he’s not maximising his wage.  Of course he might think “well I’ll definitely be off in the summer, I’ll sacrifice 6 months wages”.  But he might also think “I can sign a new deal, get my wage up, do the business and Palace will be back in for me”.

I know it’s not anywhere as straightforward a picture as I paint, but they are part of the overall consideration.

[Mr Popodopolous]

15 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

For the right player, PL clubs will still pay Champ clubs good fees.

Obafemi is in a different situation to Semenyo.  Their manager isn’t exactly talking about him in glowing terms, suggests to me they want to move him on.  Whereas we don’t.  That affects the price massively.

Personally I think any club interested will be given a starting amount of £15m, whether that’s right or not.  If they genuinely want him, they’ll then start to look to see whether there’s any wiggle room.

This is fair although I do wonder whether Scott will command quite the fees we hope for. Still plenty of time and he's only 19.

When you talk £15m as a starting point you mean Scott presumably or is that Semenyo?

[AshtonRobin21]

1 hour ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Yes imo Semenyo is the one we need to sell. 

He'll have just 12 months left and then we get into HNM territory. We're kinda almost there already. 

We will lose a couple of million by keeping him. The way I look at it is, would I be happy if we signed Semenyo on loan paying a few million for a loan fee? And the answer is no. 

We have seen this scenario play out far too many times in the past. None of them ending favourably for us. 

However, can we get better this window? I’m not so sure at all. 
 

Risk vs Reward.
 

Sell now for higher price, but run the risk of worse replacement and added risk of relegation. 

or

Keep until the summer, but know his value would have dropped due to last year of contract. But yet, being able to finance summer deals.
 

If the Conway and Weimann injuries didn’t occur, I would have been shouting ‘SELL’ from the rooftops. But it puts us in a vulnerable position as things stand.
 

 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

This is fair although I do wonder whether Scott will command quite the fees we hope for. Still plenty of time and he's only 19.

When you talk £15m as a starting point you mean Scott presumably or is that Semenyo?

Semenyo.  We’ve got to stop thinking about how much he’s worth based on ability, current form etc, and look at 1) are we looking to sell him - no, 2) do we have to sell him - no, not definitely, 3) who wants him, etc.  you might think Obafemi and him are similar in ability, but the range of fees each might command could be poles apart.

(Scott £25m)

18 minutes ago, AshtonRobin21 said:

Keep until the summer, but know his value would have dropped due to last year of contract. But yet, being able to finance summer deals.

Of course if he bangs in a decent amount in these last 20 games, or fires us on a cup run, his value could go up.

[JoeAman08]

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Except it isn't. I see where you are going with it but that is a clear and sharp decline in respect of PL from  Championship clubs. PL clubs have spent another £100-150m this January  btw using that same source...zero to Championship clubs thusfar. Let's see how the figures stack up come the end of Jan however. 

Agreed on the Semenyo point although Burnley bidding £2.5m for Obafemi is an interesting marker. Clearly he is worth more than £2.5m but selling clubs and their players are but one of many for PL clubs and even perhaps strongly financially placed Championship ones.

3.27 pct of gross spend for non freshly relegated Championship clubs feels extremely low. Summer market I know.

Is it a clear and sharp decline or was it a down year for championship prospects? The money is there and the KLP transfer to Brentford proved the money is there for championship players. The foreign market will always be better value for money for similar prospects but you can’t always predict how they will settle. 
 

I think you are panicking(probably not right word) a bit. We have every right to ask what we are for Scott. I am very sure we’ll get the 20m plus for him this month or in the summer. I don’t think we are unrealistic. The premier league has the money and we shouldn’t be catering to their demands. There is no rush to sell Scott imo so ask for all you can. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

Is it a clear and sharp decline or was it a down year for championship prospects? The money is there and the KLP transfer to Brentford proved the money is there for championship players. The foreign market will always be better value for money for similar prospects but you can’t always predict how they will settle. 
 

I think you are panicking(probably not right word) a bit. We have every right to ask what we are for Scott. I am very sure we’ll get the 20m plus for him this month or in the summer. I don’t think we are unrealistic. The premier league has the money and we shouldn’t be catering to their demands. There is no rush to sell Scott imo so ask for all you can. 

Maybe the latter true, it's hard to extrapolate from one window tbh. Agreed on this bug it'll be one to watch over a period of time.

I think is fine and definitely don't consider that we should sell in a way to cater to the PL but with that comes a risk of course that they might look overseas, look at PL players or look at those freshly relegated from PL first and foremost.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Dolman_Stand]

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Illustrative example.

Wolves are paying according to reports, £10m for Lemina and £15m for someone called Joao Gomes.

Thus the need for Scott, who would cost that price on his own is reduced, certainly as of January.

They've also signed Pablo Sarabia tonight for £5m, you can see why PL clubs go abroad as Wolves have signed 3 players (2 of them full internationals with plenty of experience in big European leagues) for a little more than were asking for Alex Scott.

[Davefevs]

In fairness the Wolves article sounded very much like guesswork. Wolves were of course after him before he signed with us. Maybe that’s been dug up. 

[James54De]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

In fairness the Wolves article sounded very much like guesswork. Wolves were of course after him before he signed with us. Maybe that’s been dug up. 

No. In whose mind would a journalist suggest a link 4 years later based on a teams previous young recruitment strategy. 

[mozo]

15 hours ago, Davefevs said:

For me I think it comes down to whether we see any chance that Semenyo will extend his contract here or not.

His own position may have changed as he’s gone through a bit of a rollercoaster this season.  The highs of World Cup selection of the back of a good end of last season.  The lows of injury, loss of form, loss of being an automatic starter.  That might also have cooled interest from the “right clubs”. Hypothetically he might really fancy Palace but not Bournemouth and it’s now only Bournemouth interested.

Lots of uncertainty created.  All whilst he’s on a contract signed in 2019, which means he’s not maximising his wage.  Of course he might think “well I’ll definitely be off in the summer, I’ll sacrifice 6 months wages”.  But he might also think “I can sign a new deal, get my wage up, do the business and Palace will be back in for me”.

I know it’s not anywhere as straightforward a picture as I paint, but they are part of the overall consideration.

Honestly, if Semenyo and Massengo both join the Diedhiou walk-away club I'm going to express my dissatisfaction (and nobody wants to see that!)

[Lorenzos Only Goal]

18 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

They might have on Championship players though or thoroughly reduced anyway- an analysis of where the fees are going would be interesting to see.

Otoh Stoke fans are suggesting £15-20m for Souttar so perhaps not!

If they sell him then that will hurt. 

[Hazelboy]

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Honestly, if Semenyo and Massengo both join the Diedhiou walk-away club I'm going to express my dissatisfaction (and nobody wants to see that!)

Going to walk from the pub with a flare then watch the players get off the coach?

1 hour ago, mozo said:

Edited January 14, 2023 by Hazelboy

[Mr Popodopolous]

@And Its Smith

Having just re read the latest press conference I now concur that we will be within FFP this season irrespective of sales. The message in the press conferences seems to vary but sounds like we've got away with one in short and medium term, I finally concur with the analysis following up our discussion on it yesterday. Until anything in the media arises I'll take the view that we are right up against but not beyond limits.

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

@And Its Smith

Having just re read the latest press conference I now concur that we will be within FFP this season irrespective of sales. The message in the press conferences seems to vary but sounds like we've got away with one in short and medium term, I finally concur with the analysis following up our discussion on it yesterday. Until anything in the media arises I'll take the view that we are right up against but not beyond limits.

We ground you down

[Major Isewater]

3 hours ago, mozo said:

Honestly, if Semenyo and Massengo both join the Diedhiou walk-away club I'm going to express my dissatisfaction (and nobody wants to see that!)

Will you boo?