Assuming he goes

[James54De]

Thought he needed a thread. 
 

 

[ExiledAjax]

Had a look but could not see a current thread on Alex Scott. We all know he's being/has been scouted, and I know I've heard that Spurs are in for him.

But just now I saw this come up on BBC Sport's general Premier League news thread. It's the first concrete report that I personally have seen in a 'proper' national news source. It's not exactly "specific", but does state a figure of £12m as our target price, which seems pretty fair to me as a basic upfront price (assuming there's also a bunch of add-ons and possible bonuses to take the total potential value up to £20m(ish)).

Would you take that now - I think we should.

Just seen that @James54De has seen similar, so mods please merge.

Edited January 5, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[tin]

Odd that it cites the same £12m figure as the Semenyo report earlier this week. Unless he’s got a release clause of £12m, I’d be amazed if we even entertained an offer around that. He’s under contract until 2025, Nige thinks he needs at least another 18 months at this level for his development, and his ceiling is the highest of the current crop IMO.

[LondonBristolian]

I think we've got to accept any player might leave for a fair price. Ideally you'd want a bit more than £12 million though, and we could do with two or three of those clubs starting a bidding war.

I also think Scott might think carefully about what to do. At the moment he is playing regular football and, if he is critical with himself, still needs to learn how to influence games a little more. There is an argument that a Premier League move could lead to better facilities, training and the experience around top players and there is an argument that regular football is a good thing and that a couple of strong seasons in the Championship might mean more football once he moved. It's a lot to weigh up for both player and club. 

[deadredfred]

Was going to start a thread on this too, as just saw on Beeb website.
£12m seems low to me given his undoubted potential and the spending power of any Premiership team.

If he moved, and had one or two solid Premiership seasons, as a young English player his fee could be 4 or 5 times that if a top 4 side come knocking. Huge sell-on clause would be essential if that price was that low.

(Not unrelated, I saw Borussia Dortmund linked in some nonsense article re Semenyo. But Scott going there doesn't seem beyond comprehension. They love a young English player with potential. Sancho, Bellingham, Bynoe-Gittens)

[W-S-M Seagull]

12 million? Which leg are they buying for that? 

[Super]

1 minute ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

12 million? Which leg are they buying for that? 

15M with add ons seems more likely.

[Silvio Dante]

It’s a long list of clubs and the journey from “looking at/tracking” to “actively pursuing” is a long one. 
 

The fact is that Scott is in the England setup and has played a significant amount of football at championship level for a 19 year old. He will be being monitored by every premier league club for that reason. The list of clubs is too long for it to be a credible “pursuing” list - all the journo has done is name the most likely suitors (I.e lower table prem clubs, Brighton who sift for gems and Spurs who he supports) to support a story that isn’t really there. The fees then been guessed at as if there were really that many people in for AS, we’d no way be settling that low.

In short, it’s a story which is true in terms of the tracking AS, but has nothing but guesswork on top of that. Had he named one or two clubs I’d be more inclined to give it credence but as at today, it appears nothing in it to me.

[ExiledAjax]

16 minutes ago, tin said:

Unless he’s got a release clause of £12m, I’d be amazed if we even entertained an offer around that.

 

16 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

Ideally you'd want a bit more than £12 million though

 

12 minutes ago, deadredfred said:

£12m seems low to me given his undoubted potential and the spending power of any Premiership team.

 

10 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

12 million? Which leg are they buying for that? 

 

All fair points. For me though look at past and roughly similar transactions and £12m plus well-negotiated add-ons is a good deal for everyone involved.

Even just £15m plus add-ons would make Scott the third most expensive teenager to ever leave the Championship. Post-Covid you just don't see these kinds of numbers for players like this. £12m plus add-ons is a fair and achievable fee, and it's the kind of thing we're going to have to take.

Top ten most expensive teenagers (and 20 year-olds) to move out of the Championship, per transfermarkt. Note Collins was Burnley - Wolves just after Burnley were relegated. It's pretty much a Prem- Prem transfer.

Edited January 5, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[REDOXO]

[tin]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

All fair points. For me though look at past and roughly similar transactions and £12m plus well-negotiated add-ons is a good deal for everyone involved.

Even just £15m plus add-ons would make Scott the third most expensive teenager to ever leave the Championship. Post-Covid you just don't see these kinds of numbers for players like this. £12m plus add-ons is a fair and achievable fee, and it's the kind of thing we're going to have to take.

Top ten most expensive teenagers to move out of the Championship, per transfermarkt. Note Collins was Burnley - Wolves just after Burnley were relegated. It's pretty much a Prem- Prem transfer.

True, but how many of those players have the experience Scott has at 19? And transfer fees, especially for young English talent, is an inflationary market, so you could argue that he’s worth more than £12m on those grounds. He’s definitely worth more than Kelly IMO, in terms of experience, versatility, and the fact he’s a midfielder (they generally cost more than defenders). 

[old_eastender]

1 minute ago, tin said:

True, but how many of those players have the experience Scott has at 19? And transfer fees, especially for young English talent, is an inflationary market, so you could argue that he’s worth more than £12m on those grounds. He’s definitely worth more than Kelly IMO, in terms of experience, versatility, and the fact he’s a midfielder (they generally cost more than defenders). 

I'm with you, I'd be disappointed if we did not get at least £15m with a good sell-on %, given he is under contract to 2025.

[Coxy27]

14 minutes ago, Super said:

15M with add ons seems more likely.

Even that isn't enough

[brad blit]

Playing devils advocate here, but if/when Scott is sold how much would we really miss him?

Im not denying he's a fantastic footballer, but in terms of what he currently brings to the team (and what we probably need right now) would the money not be welcome if we can actually get a more creative midfielder who can give us more assists and goals from centre of pitch? 

Tin hat on........

[Bristol_Badger]

Some of this lot are deluded thinking we will get 15M for the kid.

How many goals or assist has he got? 

[Coxy27]

3 minutes ago, brad blit said:

Playing devils advocate here, but if/when Scott is sold how much would we really miss him?

Im not denying he's a fantastic footballer, but in terms of what he currently brings to the team (and what we probably need right now) would the money not be welcome if we can actually get a more creative midfielder who can give us more assists and goals from centre of pitch? 

Tin hat on........

Our track record of signing creative and goal scoring midfielders is so fantastic I back us to the hilt to find a better player for a fraction of the price! 

[DaveF]

8 minutes ago, Bristol_Badger said:

Some of this lot are deluded thinking we will get 15M for the kid.

How many goals or assist has he got? 

Are you judging him entirely on goals and assists..?

To answer your question he has 5 assists so far this season, making him joint 10th for assists in the league. He is also playing in a reasonably poor team and is the youngest on the list by 3 1/2 years.

There is also so much more to his game than goals and assists.

I think you're probably deluded, are more likely just clueless?

Edited January 5, 2023 by DaveF

[Coxy27]

2 minutes ago, Bristol_Badger said:

Some of this lot are deluded thinking we will get 15M for the kid.

How many goals or assist has he got? 

11 in 65 matches in the Championship.

A fair few of which will be sub appearances and also lots at wing-back and other positions he would not be favouring.

He's also playing in a pretty bad team let's remember, and was 18/19 years old.

It's actually a pretty good record.

Chelsea signed Chukwuemeka for 20m... Senior goals and assists? 1 assist.

If you don't think he's worth £15m or more than I would suggest you haven't been watching him play. Which is not unusual for people on here with the loudest voices.

[GrahamC]

I think this is highly likely & £12m seems to be a very probable “up front” fee.

Scott isn’t going to want to stay once there is serious Prem interest & even if Spurs aren’t in for him, should the likes of Brighton, Wolves & Leicester be, he’ll be off. The contract until 2025 just ensures we get a fee, nothing more.

We can look at add ons & a sell on clause too but I said £12m each for Semenyo & Scott last week & stand by that.

Should they both depart (I reckon Semenyo is certain to do so) & potentially Martin & HNM going too, this will be the biggest rebuild in January in a very long while.

[ExiledAjax]

36 minutes ago, tin said:

True, but how many of those players have the experience Scott has at 19? And transfer fees, especially for young English talent, is an inflationary market, so you could argue that he’s worth more than £12m on those grounds. He’s definitely worth more than Kelly IMO, in terms of experience, versatility, and the fact he’s a midfielder (they generally cost more than defenders). 

In a post COVID world that inflation has largely stalled, in particular for players going Champ -> Prem. Whilst Scott does have nearly double the number of Championship appearances as Kelly did at the relevant time, and was one of very few players from this division to win the U19s with England, I still think that in this market, with 2.5 years on his contract, £12m cash up front plus £5-8m worth of achievable add-ons is fair. Either leave it as an agreed fer read for the summer or include a loan back to us for the finale of this season (as we saw Liverpool do with Carvalho last year) and I'd be happy to sign on the dotted line.

What we the fans want and what the club can commercially achieve may not be fully aligned.

[spudski]

Someone reporting Brighton are now interested. 

If a deal can be met, maybe include Khedra and get Evan Ferguson on loan. 

[Super]

9 minutes ago, spudski said:

Someone reporting Brighton are now interested. 

If a deal can be met, maybe include Khedra and get Evan Ferguson on loan. 

I doubt they would let him go when he is involved in the first team. Also i highly doubt he would want to go. 

Having said that given how they play it would be a good move for him

Edited January 5, 2023 by Super

[tin]

31 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

11 in 65 matches in the Championship.

A fair few of which will be sub appearances and also lots at wing-back and other positions he would not be favouring.

He's also playing in a pretty bad team let's remember, and was 18/19 years old.

It's actually a pretty good record.

Chelsea signed Chukwuemeka for 20m... Senior goals and assists? 1 assist.

If you don't think he's worth £15m or more than I would suggest you haven't been watching him play. Which is not unusual for people on here with the loudest voices.

That’s a great point on Chukwuemeka, who’s the same age, plays a similar position, and was part of the same U19s Euros-winning squad. That should be our benchmark for negotiations IMO. 

[Finley_Smith10]

15m plus add ons seems fair. I just hope if he goes along with Semenyo, we have the replacements lined up aswell as a lot of the money received to re invest on the squad.

[GrahamC]

14 minutes ago, spudski said:

Someone reporting Brighton are now interested. 

If a deal can be met, maybe include Khedra and get Evan Ferguson on loan. 

Ferguson is playing there, he’s not coming.

Khedra far more likely, possibly on a permanent basis.

[Northern Red]

7 minutes ago, Finley_Smith10 said:

15m plus add ons seems fair. I just hope if he goes along with Semenyo, we have the replacements lined up aswell as a lot of the money received to re invest on the squad.

Prepare to be disappointed.

[marcofisher]

I think in the current climate, the board may well sell for £15million plus a massive % sell-on fee.

Bigger clubs where he is less likely to play, we may ask for more up front. 

[The Gasbuster]

8 minutes ago, Finley_Smith10 said:

15m plus add ons seems fair. I just hope if he goes along with Semenyo, we have the replacements lined up aswell as a lot of the money received to re invest on the squad.

I think this is very likely; NP said he wanted any business to be completed early this month, therefore those targets will have been identified.

[Mr Popodopolous]

It's hard to say really. Lot of good points as to why £12m for example feels too low but then Flynn Downes who is older and possibly has less of a ceiling went for £10m, maybe rising to £12m last season.

Keane Lewis Potter went for £16m, rising to £20m.

Defenders that low prices? Maybe though Nathan Collins went for Burnley for £12m just as we were emerging from Covid-19 high calibre defenders (talking top level now, not with respect Championship) can still attract a major price tag.

Especially if they are young yet impressive and you can see them at the heart of a defence for the next decade. ie Chelsea with Fofana, Bayern with De Ligt- if they join at that age and hit heights it's expensive up front but a great investment.

£12m does feel too low but if we got a combined say £25m the pair that also feels somewhat in line with current market trends- PL clubs seem to be focusing on the European market a bit more atm.

Edited January 5, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[spudski]

7 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Ferguson is playing there, he’s not coming.

Khedra far more likely, possibly on a permanent basis.

Who knows...