Is the Prem bubble about to burst ?

[Major Isewater]

We all think of the Prem as being the land of milk and honey but it seems that chickens are coming home to roost and I am sure it’s not just Wolves and Everton who are experiencing difficulties making ends meet , the poor lambs. 
Then we have the Saudis offering a reported 700,000 quid ( or dinari ) a week to an aging Jordan Henderson amongst others. Unsettling star players with their pursuits and financial muscle. 
Is the Prem bubble about to burst or will it wait until we get there before it goes chest up? 
 

Edited July 27, 2023 by Major Isewater

[Davefevs]

Gonna be a slow puncture imho.

Re EF, I think teams need to go steady spending their new tv deal money, some are spending it in advance.  

[Eddie Hitler]

No.

There is a long long way to go yet.

Sadly.

As an example Barcelona is raising 700m Euros by selling big chunks of its future income streams.  Gotta keep that money flowing in so they can keep spending it.  

https://theathletic.com/3366941/2022/06/17/barcelona-lewandowski-de-jong-socios/

 

The only possible way I can see of the English top division going back to the pre-1994 days when it was fully part of the league system would be if there was a European super league of twenty teams established which scooped up all of the big teams and they only played in that league and not their national ones; no promotion / relegation except by the odd election as used to be the case with the Conference winners usually denied promotion to Div 4.

This would divert a lot of the current Premiership TV money into that league and away from the Premiership and so bring the Prem down to a far more equal footing with the Championship.

If that doesn't happen then it's business as usual for decades IMHO and all that Bristol City can do about it is to try to be promoted so that we also have our snouts in the money trough. 

[Monkeh]

Reckless club management is causing this,

[W-S-M Seagull]

Nope. I see it going the other way. Tickets continue to get more expensive, shirts continue to get more expensive etc as clubs aim to compete financially with the Saudi clubs.

[Eddie Hitler]

20 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Reckless club management is causing this,

 

Personally I blame Wreckless Eric for all of the problems in the whole wide world.

[milo1111]

25 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

No.

There is a long long way to go yet.

Sadly.

As an example Barcelona is raising 700m Euros by selling big chunks of its future income streams.  Gotta keep that money flowing in so they can keep spending it.  

https://theathletic.com/3366941/2022/06/17/barcelona-lewandowski-de-jong-socios/

 

The only possible way I can see of the English top division going back to the pre-1994 days when it was fully part of the league system would be if there was a European super league of twenty teams established which scooped up all of the big teams and they only played in that league and not their national ones; no promotion / relegation except by the odd election as used to be the case with the Conference winners usually denied promotion to Div 4.

This would divert a lot of the current Premiership TV money into that league and away from the Premiership and so bring the Prem down to a far more equal footing with the Championship.

If that doesn't happen then it's business as usual for decades IMHO and all that Bristol City can do about it is to try to be promoted so that we also have our snouts in the money trough. 

I can see the re-emergence of the super league idea- with the 4 Saudi  PIF teams spearheading it this time.

[Malago]

No.  The prem bubble will only burst the season we get promoted to it.

[Negan]

The Saudi bubble will burst. They will get hit with rules and regs soon which won’t allow them to continue as they are or they’ll realise what they are doing isn’t earning them what they hoped. I’ll never watch a game of their league, same with the majority of fans. 

[milo1111]

4 minutes ago, Negan said:

The Saudi bubble will burst. They will get hit with rules and regs soon which won’t allow them to continue as they are or they’ll realise what they are doing isn’t earning them what they hoped. I’ll never watch a game of their league, same with the majority of fans. 

I won’t watch it either. Did anyone even watch the golf though? I don’t think they did but they still bought themselves a seat at the table.

IMO they arent doing it for profit. Not directly anyway. It’s about profile and attention through disruption of the status quo.

[downendcity]

6 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

Reckless club management is causing this,

In particular club management/ownership not having the balls to say "no" to the exponential growth in player wages ( and extortionate payments to agents).

It's all very well agents arguing that the football product that is so attractive to companies willing to pay huge sums for tv rights ( which is of course true), but not to the point where wages being paid are at a level, relative to income,  that no sane accountant would allow a client to run with in just about any other business.

It seems the problem is that if one owner/chief executive said no to  players wage demands, they know very well that there will be another club whose owner will pay because they want any competitive edge, even if it is not justified financially, in chasing the big prizes, whether that be top 4, Europa league or even avoiding relegation.

That problem has been exacerbated in recent years with the arrival of super rich owners like Abramovich, who have much deeper pockets than the traditional club owners, and latterly the Americans and now Arab States, whose wealth blows everyone else out of the water.

FFP was introduced to try and prevent reckless financial management but, if the accusations against Man City are proven, it just means that the wealthy will try to circumvent the rules in order to use their wealth to gain the best advantage.

The latest financial threat is not within the PL, but comes from the Saudi League. When the Chinese formed their league they seemed mainly to attract players at the end of their careers with pension pay days and the downturn in Chia's fortunes has seen that run it's course. Saudi Arabia seems to have limitless wealth, and is looking for somewhere to spend it, and in particular " sports washing" avenues.

While Mbappe might have turned them down, the sums he was offered make it clear that they are prepared to pay to attract the best and those in their prime. 

Had Henderson been made available for transfer I suspect that a lot of premier league teams would have been in for him and would have been prepared to offer, what, £100,000 pw+. I'd guess that Liverpool would give him his current wages fir a further 2/3 year contract. None of them could come remotely close to the £700,000 pw he will get by going to Saudi, and that is where the real problem could lie.

Once the Saudi's start attracting top players in their prime the premier league will have to start worrying, because Sky might start looking to the middle east if "some of the best players in the world" are not playing in Manchester and Liverpool, but in Riyadh and Jeddah. 

 

[downendcity]

8 minutes ago, Negan said:

The Saudi bubble will burst. They will get hit with rules and regs soon which won’t allow them to continue as they are or they’ll realise what they are doing isn’t earning them what they hoped. I’ll never watch a game of their league, same with the majority of fans. 

Money talks e.g. last year's WC in Qatar, and the Saudi's have more of it than anyone else, the cynical me suspects that if enough of it is "available" to FIFA then any financial rules they may apply to Saudi will be less onerous that, for example, we have in the PL, EFL and UEFA.

As for not earning them enough, see milo's post below. This will be part of their "sportswashing" strategy, to gain, in their eyes, worldwide acceptance.  It might be vaity on their part, but they are able to afford a damn sight more for their vanity than Jordan can for hers!

 

1 minute ago, milo1111 said:

I won’t watch it either. Did anyone even watch the golf though? I don’t think they did but they still bought themselves a seat at the table.

IMO they arent doing it for profit. Not directly anyway. It’s about profile and attention through disruption of the status quo.

 

 

[Sleepy1968]

41 minutes ago, Eddie Hitler said:

No.

There is a long long way to go yet.

Sadly.

As an example Barcelona is raising 700m Euros by selling big chunks of its future income streams.  Gotta keep that money flowing in so they can keep spending it.  

https://theathletic.com/3366941/2022/06/17/barcelona-lewandowski-de-jong-socios/

 

The only possible way I can see of the English top division going back to the pre-1994 days when it was fully part of the league system would be if there was a European super league of twenty teams established which scooped up all of the big teams and they only played in that league and not their national ones; no promotion / relegation except by the odd election as used to be the case with the Conference winners usually denied promotion to Div 4.

This would divert a lot of the current Premiership TV money into that league and away from the Premiership and so bring the Prem down to a far more equal footing with the Championship.

If that doesn't happen then it's business as usual for decades IMHO and all that Bristol City can do about it is to try to be promoted so that we also have our snouts in the money trough. 

I'm sure sky would back the superleague, and to hell with the rest of you. Maybe the PL would be panicked into organising a PL 1 and 2, with it organised so we miss out, in an attempt to retain some valuable tv rights.

[Gimme Shelton]

I'm sure I'm not the only one who would have zero interest in watching what would basically be a Harlem Globetrotters type league 

[milo1111]

4 minutes ago, Gimme Shelton said:

I'm sure I'm not the only one who would have zero interest in watching what would basically be a Harlem Globetrotters type league 

I’m not sure they really care about domestic fans that much. Do you think the consortiums and state owned clubs in the prem would care if there was a chance to jump to a Saudi backed league and the revenue streams were even greater. As long as the international tv rights were there they’d not give a t0$$

[Never to the dark side]

If there were less World class players in the prime of their soccer careers(in their twentys?)

heading to the English premier league,would that benifit our Nathional side

[Oh Louie louie]

The European leauge Will come sooner or later,, if it was up to the likes of levy and co, it would be next year, money dictates these people so much I don't doubt the way the winds blowing Saudi teams Will also join,

[downendcity]

7 minutes ago, Never to the dark side said:

If there were less World class players in the prime of their soccer careers(in their twentys?)

heading to the English premier league,would that benifit our Nathional side

Ah, but back when the premier league was being mooted, and ever since, we were told ( as justification for the breakaway from the football league) that England players playing alongside the world's best would benefit the national team!

[MarcusX]

4 minutes ago, downendcity said:

Ah, but back when the premier league was being mooted, and ever since, we were told ( as justification for the breakaway from the football league) that England players playing alongside the world's best would benefit the national team!

I'd argue it is now starting to

It wasn't just that which was required, it was a change to the whole system and culture in this country.

International influence has definately played apart (along with a fairly decent vision from the FA)

[downendcity]

3 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

I'd argue it is now starting to

It wasn't just that which was required, it was a change to the whole system and culture in this country.

International influence has definately played apart (along with a fairly decent vision from the FA)

At the formation of the premier league was not due to the vision of the FA. More it was the greed of the top clubs wanting to keep more of the TV money for themselves.

If you mean the FA's vision in appointing Southgate, I think the general opinion was that GS was appointed because he was the FA's yes man because he was already working within the FA' international structure.

As for it now starting to benefit the England team, I'd argue it's about time  and why has it taken 30 years?

Also, while the England team has performed better of late - certainly at major tournaments- and has some genuinely world class players, Southgate has a relatively small pool from which to choose. How many England players aren't even regulars for their premier league teams and are being kept out by foreign players?

 

[Dr Balls]

The Saudi football intervention is more sports-washing. And it’s not designed for European fans or a home audience anyway, it’s for those in the Far East and developing nations, who idolise certain players as much if not more so than particular teams.

However they aren’t having it all their own way. Messi, surely their greatest target, has gone to the MLS, while Mbappe reportedly isn’t interested, which is unsurprising considering his age and lack of European club success. You can’t be a “great” playing in Europe without winning European trophies and he knows that’s a black mark against him.

As for the reach into English football and effect on the Premier League, so far it’s only older players locking to cash in at the end of their careers, the most obvious actually being Cristiano Ronaldo. On the other hand, just consider how quickly his star has fallen since going there. It’s like he has disappeared into a media void. For younger less successful players looking to go overseas, Turkey probably remains a better option than Saudi Arabia, given the chance to still play in European competitions.

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

2 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

We all think of the Prem as being the land of milk and honey but it seems that chickens are coming home to roost and I am sure it’s not just Wolves and Everton who are experiencing difficulties making ends meet , the poor lambs. 
Then we have the Saudis offering a reported 700,000 quid ( or dinari ) a week to an aging Jordan Henderson amongst others. Unsettling star players with their pursuits and financial muscle. 
Is the Prem bubble about to burst or will it wait until we get there before it goes chest up? 

West Ham will keep blowing them. 

[Sir Geoff]

36 minutes ago, Never to the dark side said:

If there were less World class players in the prime of their soccer careers(in their twentys?)

heading to the English premier league,would that benifit our Nathional side

Didn't do us much good in he 70's and 80's. Most players benefit from having better players around them.

[Baba Yaga]

I think it is a bit premature to think this way, like it or not the premier league is still very strongly positioned, domestically I would argue things like the cost of living crisis are as big of a threat to the tv deal as Saudi as I can't see many UK premier league fans jumping ship even if the quality of football goes down a bit. Abroad its harder to talk about, certainly in the middle east there would be a big challenge to the market there but in the rest of the world we have the benefit of being English speaking and more established in their markets already, these PIF clubs have a long way to go to challenge the status of the global band of a Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea etc. After covid I think the rate of growth of the premier league TV deals may already be falling and with FFP also in the mix then the clubs should not be in for a sharp shock financially, they have to adapt because their income won't continue to increase by 30% every 3 years but I see that as manageable, I still think the european super league is a greater threat to PL dominance.

[phantom]

1 hour ago, Negan said:

The Saudi bubble will burst. They will get hit with rules and regs soon which won’t allow them to continue as they are or they’ll realise what they are doing isn’t earning them what they hoped. I’ll never watch a game of their league, same with the majority of fans. 

It doesn't seem that long ago that people were talking about China in a similar vein

The difference with the Saudi's is that they seem to be over paying for things that if they had a bit more nous they could sort at a lower price

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, downendcity said:

FFP was introduced to try and prevent reckless financial management

Nah. That's what they want you to think. FFP was brought in to protect the interests of elite clubs. They didn't want another Chelsea, Man City etc to happen. Newcastle would be splashing the money if it wasn't for FFP.

Despite us being owned by a billionaire, we've had to put up with shite on the pitch the past few years because of FFP. FFP is designed to ensure the status quo and its clubs like ours that suffer.

[Never to the dark side]

As an Englishman when I was at school the nathional team came first and the club came second,for me now its the other way round

If we look at the World cups since 1966 which we got because the U,K promised to beam LIVE pictures to the Southern hemisphere

1970 did we qualify as we were the world champions?

1974 and 1978 we never made it

1982 and 1986 best forgotten

1990 now that tournament was something different

1992 okay the prem started and I can remember people saying it will improve the England players and it didn't and we conked out in 1994

There are now approx 400 players in the prem league(2023) and only eighty of them are available to play for England

1998 2002 2006 reasonable efforts in my opinion

2010 and 2014 not  good tournaments

2018 2022 not a bad tournament

[Super]

I would rather watch any Prem/EFL game.

[REDOXO]

The Premier League was the catalyst to everything that has happened with money in football for 30 years. 
 

The idea in essence to maximize revenue in football at the top. In of itself not a bad idea if you are ever dumb enough to have faith in trickle down economics. However it has lead to where we are now. 
 

I read some stuff about super rich owners. One of the trailblazers of that was our own bloke but let’s brush over that for now. 
 

Once global money was pouring to the FA Premier League, by the early 2000s, the other major leagues had to follow to compete. 
 

This was then coupled with rich  Americans buying clubs loading them with debt and eventually selling them on, which has been exacerbated by a consistently low pound. 
 

The fact now is the Saudi’s and various other despots with oodles of money, are copying the Russian oligarch model (the sag not withstanding) and they want a piece of the action. These guys unlike the septics don’t care about profit, they want glory. (My god some Ruskie got a life peerage) Race horse ownership is pas-see if you want influence it’s football you need to be in

(If a **** club like derby can have questions asked in parliament and it’s tax debt forgiven or Wrexham can get government funding of 25m etc etc etc I can’t even imagine the influence you create for yourself at Man C or Newcastle) 

The west is a slave to capitalism and as such bows to its love of money and no one cares from where it arrives. That’s no surprise to The Arabs, China The Russians et al!

 

 

[Show Me The Money!]

Regardless of the financial impact of the Saudis throwing there cash around the more interesting impact for me is what impact that will have on the the transfer food chain from the lower prem teams down who maybe will have lost players to the saudi teams or lost potential aging transfer targets from to the top teams whom they'd maybe think they could pick up.

Will it mean more younger unknown players getting there chance more and more chances for academy players?