EFL View Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 Hi I’m an Ipswich Town fan who writes a blog about the EFL. I’ve written a predictions/preview article ahead of the Championship season. It’s quite long winded so I’ve split it into two parts. What are your expectations ahead of the season? So far I think the spending has been very sensible, adding a small number of upgrades to strengthen in different positions and lower the average age of the squad, rather than spending silly money on a complete overhaul, assuming that £20m+ will be coming in for Scott later in the window. It'll be a big jump from 14th to the playoffs but I definitely think you'll be higher than last year. Obviously predictions always bring disagreement but I hope you like what I've written anyway. It was posted on Wednesday so a couple of things will be a little out of date. Cheers 2023-24 Championship Predictions: 1st-12th (substack.com) 2023-24 Championship Predictions: 13th-24th (substack.com) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 These types of pre season predictions are commonplace throughout the football industry. I doubt if any serious fan of any club takes them seriously. There simply column fillers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pl00peh91 Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Robbored said: These types of pre season predictions are commonplace throughout the football industry. I doubt if any serious fan of any club takes them seriously. There simply column fillers. If you can’t think of anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all 9 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 28 minutes ago, Robbored said: These types of pre season predictions are commonplace throughout the football industry. I doubt if any serious fan of any club takes them seriously. There simply column fillers. Pretty audacious to write this and claim something else is simply a "filler". @EFL View thorough. Put a lot of effort into that haven't you. I don't agree with the "reliance on over 30s", and we've seen a few predictions saying this kind of thing, but on minutes played it's just not true. Still, very kind of you to put us in the top ten. Hope Ashton doesn't **** your finances up. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 Although I think Leicester will win the league, I think 5 of the top 6 are over rated, but then you look at the teams in the bottom 12 and it's difficult to make a case for any of them to challenge higher up, but you never know in the Championship. The one team I would totally disagree with is Birmingham, if they make it anywhere near the top 12 I will be amazed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: I don't agree with the "reliance on over 30s", and we've seen a few predictions saying this kind of thing, but on minutes played it's just not true. Which suggests to me that people just copy each other without bothering to find out the facts. Though it remains a trivial matter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, chinapig said: Which suggests to me that people just copy each other without bothering to find out the facts. Though it remains a trivial matter. Spot on China. Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glynriley Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 1 hour ago, EFL View said: Hi I’m an Ipswich Town fan who writes a blog about the EFL. I’ve written a predictions/preview article ahead of the Championship season. It’s quite long winded so I’ve split it into two parts. What are your expectations ahead of the season? So far I think the spending has been very sensible, adding a small number of upgrades to strengthen in different positions and lower the average age of the squad, rather than spending silly money on a complete overhaul, assuming that £20m+ will be coming in for Scott later in the window. It'll be a big jump from 14th to the playoffs but I definitely think you'll be higher than last year. Obviously predictions always bring disagreement but I hope you like what I've written anyway. It was posted on Wednesday so a couple of things will be a little out of date. Cheers 2023-24 Championship Predictions: 1st-12th (substack.com) 2023-24 Championship Predictions: 13th-24th (substack.com) Pretty good piece, until the final paragraph. The fact that Pearson has managed to keep us “ticking over” is testament to him, not a minus in my book. He’s had a lot to deal with following on from, well, you know the rest, or should do. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Coach Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, Robbored said: Spot on China. Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them. No shit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 Just now, The Coach said: No shit You and I along many thousands of other fans know that these predictions are guesswork but there are some who take them seriously. I know two gasheads who do exactly that…………. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 (edited) 19 minutes ago, glynriley said: Pretty good piece, until the final paragraph. The fact that Pearson has managed to keep us “ticking over” is testament to him, not a minus in my book. He’s had a lot to deal with following on from, well, you know the rest, or should do. Agreed. The last time we tried to cut costs while remaining afloat and the FFP issue was less acute then we steadily declined, before finishing bottom. By a distance! On top of that, NP has blooded lots of young players and has been tactically flexible. Edited July 30, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, Robbored said: Spot on China. Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them. I think you overstate the case and maybe I did. @EFL Viewhas clearly put a lot of effort in so it's not just guesswork. I can't even be assed to put in the effort after all! But it's very hard to do a comprehensive analysis of 24 clubs and you can easily fall victim to received wisdom that isn't supported by evidence. But if it's well motivated, as in this case, no problem. Even respected professional journalists do it. Wage budget tends to be the best predictor of finishing position but even that is far from certain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Robbored said: Spot on China. Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them. in which case just scroll on by and don’t post. You really are being a complete nause this summer, with your attention seeking posts. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 35 minutes ago, Davefevs said: in which case just scroll on by and don’t post. You really are being a complete nause this summer, with your attention seeking posts. This a forum Dave - place to express an opinion. Any poster who finds my contributions ‘nauseous’ can easily put me on ignore. You know how to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porto Red Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Robbored said: This a forum Dave - place to express an opinion. Any poster who finds my contributions ‘nauseous’ can easily put me on ignore. You know how to do it. You don't have any opinions. Posting on a thread to say how much you ignore the subject matter of the thread is not an opinion. No one gives a ****. Bore off, as they say. 9 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheReds Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 6 hours ago, Robbored said: Spot on China. Even with all facts from every club, making predictions before the season starts is complete guesswork. That’s why I and I’m sure thousands of other fans UK wide take zero interest in any of them. How so? Surely it is an educated guess rather than complete guesswork. I am assuming you haven't "completely guessed" anywhere on this forum whatsoever about the coming season for us then? You don't think we will do ok, really well, relegated, bottom half, mid table, top half, playoffs? If it is all complete guesswork, do you fancy a couple of bets with me? Let's see who finishes highest, I'll guess for myself and have guessed Leicester and you can have QPR, I'll also have a complete guess at Man City and you can have Bournemouth. Let's say a grand on each and loser pays it to charity of their choice? I mean it's only guesswork isn't it. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrongagain Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 If I get one right I will be amazed - the 3 coming up will get promoted and the 3 coming down will pass them on the way to div1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 42 minutes ago, TheReds said: How so? Surely it is an educated guess rather than complete guesswork. I am assuming you haven't "completely guessed" anywhere on this forum whatsoever about the coming season for us then? You don't think we will do ok, really well, relegated, bottom half, mid table, top half, playoffs? If it is all complete guesswork, do you fancy a couple of bets with me? Let's see who finishes highest, I'll guess for myself and have guessed Leicester and you can have QPR, I'll also have a complete guess at Man City and you can have Bournemouth. Let's say a grand on each and loser pays it to charity of their choice? I mean it's only guesswork isn't it. Yet again my original comment has been misunderstood. For anyone to predict where a particular club will finish regardless of which league there is an extremely tall order - I’d say impossible. Any of us can make an educated guess, particularly with the Championship where each club will finish using basic common sense. Obviously the relegated clubs will have an advantage over everyone else but that doesn’t guarantee anything. As ever I’m optimistic about the coming season - just as am every season - however after 2:5 years of Nige rebuilding I’m ever more optimistic than in previous years and am hoping for a top 6 finish and possibly automatic. Btw - that’s not a prediction just wishful thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EFL View Posted July 30, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 7 hours ago, ExiledAjax said: Pretty audacious to write this and claim something else is simply a "filler". @EFL View thorough. Put a lot of effort into that haven't you. I don't agree with the "reliance on over 30s", and we've seen a few predictions saying this kind of thing, but on minutes played it's just not true. Still, very kind of you to put us in the top ten. Hope Ashton doesn't **** your finances up. Thanks. Perhaps overreliance was the wrong word to use, and I don't think the senior players are past it, I was more trying to highlight that there's been some good succession planning. Thought the Ashton issue might pop up! So far things his influence has been positive, as when he came in we were in such dire need of a football person around the club and some drive to get things moving forward following the lack of direction of the Marcus Evans era. Obviously we've incurred some pretty big losses by League One standards along the way and I'm aware that his popularity eventually fell off a cliff with Bristol City though. At this stage it's so far so good, but getting a team with our budget out of League One isn't exactly an outstanding achievement so the real assessment of his performance will come in the next couple of years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EFL View Posted July 30, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 7 hours ago, glynriley said: Pretty good piece, until the final paragraph. The fact that Pearson has managed to keep us “ticking over” is testament to him, not a minus in my book. He’s had a lot to deal with following on from, well, you know the rest, or should do. Cheers. I think the job he's done has been a good one and it's definitely a positive that he's kept things stable, I was only highlighting that he often hasn't been able to do that during his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheReds Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, Robbored said: Yet again my original comment has been misunderstood. For anyone to predict where a particular club will finish regardless of which league there is an extremely tall order - I’d say impossible. Any of us can make an educated guess, particularly with the Championship where each club will finish using basic common sense. Obviously the relegated clubs will have an advantage over everyone else but that doesn’t guarantee anything. As ever I’m optimistic about the coming season - just as am every season - however after 2:5 years of Nige rebuilding I’m ever more optimistic than in previous years and am hoping for a top 6 finish and possibly automatic. Btw - that’s not a prediction just wishful thinking. You said making predictions was "complete guesswork". You are now saying a hell of a lot of stuff that contradicts your post. You are now saying anyone can make an educated guess with some common sense, you are also saying some clubs will have an advantage and it doesn't guarantee anything. Where has anyone said the relegated clubs (or any other club) are guaranteed to finish top, middle or bottom? Some people do their homework and take a lot of things into consideration and form an opinion, and then simply make an educated guess of where they would finish, there are no guarantees, there are no tried and trusted formulas, just people with a view on the teams/clubs and say where they thing they will finish. If you really are against someone having an opinion about what positions they think teams will finish, then just don't bother to read or comment on it. Just take your educated thoughts and think to yourself "this isn't for me, I'll ignore that thread/post". A very simple and easy thing to do, and it will stop you getting any grief in the replies too, not that you would just say something for a reaction in the first place.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garland-sweden Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 Think Millwall not be good this season, Birmingham to. Second season for Coventry and Sunderland in this leauge, dont think neither of them top six. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EFL View Posted July 30, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 40 minutes ago, Garland-sweden said: Think Millwall not be good this season, Birmingham to. Second season for Coventry and Sunderland in this leauge, dont think neither of them top six. Interesting. Who are your top six? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roadrunner Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 Yes i fancy Millwall to be very strong this years, and Leicester are the ones to be in front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1960maaan Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 11 hours ago, ExiledAjax said: I don't agree with the "reliance on over 30s", and we've seen a few predictions saying this kind of thing, but on minutes played it's just not true. But if you look at games played, which if you research lots of Clubs could be one easy way, then you could make a case for it. Naismith involved in 30 games, James 30, King 31 , Weimann 37, Martin 19, Klose 12 thats a lot of games (159) . Now where the research should have gone to, is why . Then it shows most of those games were due to injuries and lack of options. They have obviously done some research, but unless you really dig you wont get the whole picture, and TBF I doubt many will be willing. There were over 100 games played by teenagers last year , but if you have a cursory look there were 5 over 30s involved in the last game. There is a limit to how deep they will dive into their research, who in reality will research the entire EFL. I quite like looking at them, I'm pleased if they think we will do well, but doubt those that have us to struggle. FWIW , I agree with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
!james Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 Good read, personally think you have massively overestimated Sunderland and don't think PNE will be anywhere near the bottom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garland-sweden Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 46 minutes ago, EFL View said: Interesting. Who are your top six? Leicester, Southampton, Boro, Stoke, Leeds, Bristol City. City fan I am but this season is the third for NP and he had built this team. The younger boys one year older, good signings in defence and Knight in midfield. Defence stronger and we have lots of players that can score. Starting eleven not easy to choice for NP, many Good players. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryans Left Peg Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, Garland-sweden said: Leicester, Southampton, Boro, Stoke, Leeds, Bristol City. City fan I am but this season is the third for NP and he had built this team. The younger boys one year older, good signings in defence and Knight in midfield. Defence stronger and we have lots of players that can score. Starting eleven not easy to choice for NP, many Good players. Don’t see Stoke getting top half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Garland-sweden Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, Bryans Left Peg said: Don’t see Stoke getting top half. Just a feeling I got. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pillred Posted July 30, 2023 Report Share Posted July 30, 2023 15 hours ago, pl00peh91 said: If you can’t think of anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all Westlife? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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