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Chelsea FFP?


Roger Red Hat

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Time will tell but some of the loopholes utilised by EFL clubs are no longer applicable.

https://www.sportbible.com/football/football-news/chelsea/chelsea-ffp-067736-20230825

A record FFP breach forecast for Chelsea though madly they can still sign players in Janaury?? Future Monitoring?

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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Given the accelerated P&S Tests in the PL I thought I'd return to it.

Firstly I think they are okay to the period ending 2022-23. The 2019-20 profit plus 2020-21 loss is added and halved and the 2021-22 loss is the 2021-22. There will be genuine Covid add-backs- Gate, TV, Commercial etc. I'd be surprised if they failed to that season.

The Covid combined Average dropping away, the crazy expenditure and no CL football, no European football even plus £xm per position in the PL- the prize money fall from 3rd to 12th could easily be £20-25m? PL haven't release their distributions so it's hard to say.

That makes this season a much bigger challenge IMO.

Will finally have a stab based on the reported fees and reported contract lengths.

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Inbound- Annual Cost of Amortisation

2022-23- Summer

Slonina- £8.1m/6 years..Annual Cost, £1.35m.

Koulibaly- £33m/4 years..Annual Cost, £8.25m.

Fofana- £70m/7 years..Annual Cost, £10m

Cucurella- £60m/6 years..Annual Cost, £10m

Chukwuemeka- £20m/6 years..Annual Cost, £3.33m

Casadei- Reported £12.6m/6 years.. Annual Cost, £2.1m.

Aubameyang- £10-12m/2 years.. Annual Cost, £5-6m. (3 different sites said 3 different fees in this range).

Sterling- £47.5m/5 years..Annual Cost, £9.5m.

Loan fee for Zakaria was £2.7m reportedly. Season long loan so a one off fee.

£52m so far, inclusive of the loan fee. Maybe a little more.

2023- Winter

Badiashile- £35m/7.5 years..Annual Cost, £2.33m give or take (doubles in the subsequent 7 years).

Gusto- £26.3m/£8.5 years..Annual Cost give or take £1.75m.

Fernandez- £106.7m/8.5 years..Annual Cost as above effectively doubles in each of the 8 subsequent years. About £6.28m that year and an extra year was subsequently added in April.

Mudryk- £88.5m/8.5 years..Annual Cost basically in Year 1, £5.2m, £10.4m in each other year.

Santos- £12-18m/7.5 years..Annual Cost £0.8-1.2m in that half-season etc.

Madueke- £30m/7.5 years..Annual Cost £2m this year, £4m each subsequent etc.

Other Fofana- £8m/6.5 years..Annual Cost £0.615m this year, double each subsequent etc.

Joao Felix a reported £9.7m loan fee, only across last season so all in one.

Pushing towards £25-30m. It is such a bewildering array of comings and goings in 2 Windows it is hard to keep track.. perhaps that is their hope for UEFA and the PL too. :laugh:

2023-24- Summer

Sanchez- £25m/7 years..Annual Cost £3.57m.

Petrovic- £12.5m/7 years..Annual Cost £1.78m.

Disasi- £38.8m/6 years..Annual Cost £6.41m.

Ugochukwu- £23.2m/7 years..Annual Cost £3.31m.

Caicedo- £100m/8 years..Annual Cost £12.5m.

Lavia- £53m/7 years..Annual Cost £7.57m.

Gabriel- £13m/6 years..Annual Cost £2.16m.

Moreira- Free Transfer.

Palmer- £40m/7 years..Annual Cost £5.71m.

Jackson- £32m/8 years..Annual Cost £4m.

Nkuku- £52m/6 years..Annual Cost £8.67m.

Washington- £13.7m/7 years.. Annual Cost £1.96m.

Easily another £50-55m. Obviously the loan fees are one off and not to be repeated.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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18 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Inbound- Annual Cost of Amortisation

2022-23- Summer

Slonina- £8.1m/6 years..Annual Cost, £1.35m.

Koulibaly- £33m/4 years..Annual Cost, £8.25m.

Fofana- £70m/7 years..Annual Cost, £10m

Cucurella- £60m/6 years..Annual Cost, £10m

Chukwuemeka- £20m/6 years..Annual Cost, £3.33m

Casadei- Reported £12.6m/6 years.. Annual Cost, £2.1m.

Aubameyang- £10-12m/2 years.. Annual Cost, £5-6m. (3 different sites said 3 different fees in this range).

Sterling- £47.5m/5 years..Annual Cost, £9.5m.

Loan fee for Zakaria was £2.7m reportedly. Season long loan so a one off fee.

£52m so far, inclusive of the loan fee. Maybe a little more.

2023- Winter

Badiashile- £35m/7.5 years..Annual Cost, £2.33m give or take (doubles in the subsequent 7 years).

Gusto- £26.3m_8.5 years..Annual Cost give or take £1.75m.

Fernandez- £106.7m/8.5 years..as above effectively doubles in each of the 8 subsequent years. About £6.28m that year and an extra year was subsequently added in April.

Mudryk- £88.5m/8.5 years..basically in Year 1, £5.2m, £10.4m in each other year.

Santos- £12-18m/7.5 years..£0.8-1.2m in that half-season etc.

Madueke- £30m/7.5 years..£2m this year, £4m each subsequent etc.

Other Fofana- £8m/6.5 years..£0.615m this year, double each subsequent etc.

Joao Felix a reported £9.7m loan fee, only across last season so all in one.

Pushing towards £25-30m. It is such a bewildering array of comings and goings in 2 Windows it is hard to keep track.. perhaps that is their hope for UEFA and the PL too. :laugh:

They've very cleverly avoided UEFA sanctions by failing to qualify for any qualifying tournament, last season and this too the way they are going.

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People speak of the sales and this is clearly very valid but worth noting that even with in excess of £100m in Profit on Disposal of Players in 2021-22 they still lost over £100m..which pre-dated the splurge.

A season in which they finished 3rd in the PL, losing Cup finalists x 2, CL QF and won the European Super Cup- albeit did include a presumably one off impairment charge of £76m.

Possibly also their new signings on lower wages or similar wages but spread over longer. ie instead of 4 year deal £150k per week, 6 year deal £100k per week.

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20 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

PL sanctions though perhaps.

Probably depends whether they sell Gallagher.

They've probably stayed just within the limits but now have about 30 average footballers that they have to pay for the next 8 years. Can't see too many of them moving on either not with job security for 8 years at a top club.

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Just now, Sir Geoff said:

Probably depends whether they sell Gallagher.

They've probably stayed just within the limits but now have about 30 average footballers that they have to pay for the next 8 years. Can't see too many of them moving on either not with job security for 8 years at a top club.

Players do develop at different times, wouldn't rule out a reasonable number of younger players coming good at some point.. but that environment would be far from conducive.

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Now the other side of the equation.

Outbound- Profit or otherwise on Disposal

2022-23- Summer

Emerson- Sold £13m, Book Value probably £2m due to extensions- Profit on Disposal £11m.

Gilmour- Sold £9-10m, Academy Product- Profit on Disposal £9-10m.

Kenedy- £500,000, Remainng Book Value probably negligible- Profit on Disposal £500,000.

Werner- Sold £25.3m, Book Value £28.5m- Loss on Disposal £3.2m.

Batshuayi- Sold £3.5m, Book Value maybe £1.65m..Profit on Disposal £1.85m.

Plus loan fees can be added, Sarr, Bakayoko and Lukaku comes to £9.7m.

Profit on Disposal/Fees to offset £28-29m.

2022-23- Winter

Jorginho- Sold £12m, Book Value £5m..Profit on Disposal £7m.

Profit on Disposal £7m.

Becomes a bit tricky as technically after the season but anything up to June 30th will count towards that season.

Summer 2023- Up to June 30th

Mendy- Sold £16m, Book Value £8.8m..Profit on Disposal £7.2m.

Koulibaly- Sold £17m, Book Value £25.5m..Loss on Disposal £8.5m.

Kovacic- Sold £25m, Book Value £8m..Profit on Disposal £17m.

Loftus-Cheek- Sold £15m, Academy Product..Profit on Disposal £15m.

Havertz- Sold £65m, Book Value £28.8m..Profit on Disposal £36.2m.

An estimated Profit on Disposal of Players in 2022-23 plus loan fees would be £101-102.9m.

Summer 2023- July 1st to closure of the window.

Ampadu- £7m, Free but less 20% Sell on to Exeter..Profit on Disposal £5.6m.

Mount- £55m- Academy Product..Profit on Disposal £55m.

Pulisic- £17.1m- Book Value £10.47m..Profit on Disposal £6.62m.

Hudson-Odoi- £5m- Academy Product..Profit on Disposal £5m.

Aubameyang- Free. Book Value £5-6m..Loss on Disposal £5-6m.

Loan fees totalling £14.3m across Kepa, Sarr, Ziyech, Lukaku.

£81-82m incoming from reported Loan fees and Profit on Player Disposals so far this season.

If anyone wants to take it to another level and analyse cost savings on amortisation from players going on a free be my guest!! 🤣🤣

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1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Now the other side of the equation.

Outbound- Profit or otherwise on Disposal

2022-23- Summer

Emerson- Sold £13m, Book Value probably £2m due to extensions- Profit on Disposal £11m.

Gilmour- Sold £9-10m, Academy Product- Profit on Disposal £9-10m.

Kenedy- £500,000, Remainng Book Value probably negligible- Profit on Disposal £500,000.

Werner- Sold £25.3m, Book Value £28.5m- Loss on Disposal £3.2m.

Batshuayi- Sold £3.5m, Book Value maybe £1.65m..Profit on Disposal £1.85m.

Plus loan fees can be added, Sarr, Bakayoko and Lukaku comes to £9.7m.

Profit on Disposal/Fees to offset £28-29m.

2022-23- Winter

Jorginho- Sold £12m, Book Value £5m..Profit on Disposal £7m.

Profit on Disposal £7m.

Becomes a bit tricky as technically after the season but anything up to June 30th will count towards that season.

Summer 2023- Up to June 30th

Mendy- Sold £16m, Book Value £8.8m..Profit on Disposal £7.2m.

Koulibaly- Sold £17m, Book Value £25.5m..Loss on Disposal £8.5m.

Kovacic- Sold £25m, Book Value £8m..Profit on Disposal £17m.

Loftus-Cheek- Sold £15m, Academy Product..Profit on Disposal £15m.

Havertz- Sold £65m, Book Value £28.8m..Profit on Disposal £36.2m.

An estimated Profit on Disposal of Players in 2022-23 plus loan fees would be £101-102.9m.

Summer 2023- July 1st to closure of the window.

Ampadu- £7m, Free but less 20% Sell on to Exeter..Profit on Disposal £5.6m.

Mount- £55m- Academy Product..Profit on Disposal £55m.

Pulisic- £17.1m- Book Value £10.47m..Profit on Disposal £6.62m.

Hudson-Odoi- £5m- Academy Product..Profit on Disposal £5m.

Aubameyang- Free. Book Value £5-6m..Loss on Disposal £5-6m.

Loan fees totalling £14.3m across Kepa, Sarr, Ziyech, Lukaku.

£81-82m incoming from reported Loan fees and Profit on Player Disposals so far this season.

If anyone wants to take it to another level and analyse cost savings on amortisation from players going on a free be my guest!! 🤣🤣

Good grief. I had forgotten Chelsea got £55m out of Man Utd for Mason Mount, another England player whose career at Old Trafford appears to be going the way of Jadon Sancho. Perhaps Chelsea aren’t the financial mugs we had them marked down as!

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5 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

Good grief. I had forgotten Chelsea got £55m out of Man Utd for Mason Mount, another England player whose career at Old Trafford appears to be going the way of Jadon Sancho. Perhaps Chelsea aren’t the financial mugs we had them marked down as!

What I don't get is why their PL rivals didn't try and low ball, didn't try to screw them down a bit more.

Particularly with the Kovacic and Havertz sales approaching the deadline- you should look to leverage that position more as a buying club in that scenario with 30th June fast approaching and a probable FFP hole to fill.

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5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

What I don't get is why their PL rivals didn't try and low ball, didn't try to screw them down a bit more.

Particularly with the Kovacic and Havertz sales approaching the deadline- you should look to leverage that position more as a buying club in that scenario with 30th June fast approaching and a probable FFP hole to fill.

2 ways of reading that. One is that Arsenal and Man City don’t know how to drive a hard bargain on fees. The second is that they would somehow be doing Chelsea a favour. Time for the conspiracy theorists?!

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Small updates. Deloitte Money League have released some figures (I would suggest from those combined with my work that PSG recorded yet another €100m+ loss seemingly without censure but that's another issue)..

Some Chelsea specific figures from these!

Turnover

⬆️£481.3m to £512.5m..£31.2m rise.

Wages

⬆️£341.723m to £404.875m..£63.153m rise??

If so they're worse than  I thought. I'll wait for the audited accounts to  go public before full judgment but though the £70m+ impairment won't be repeated, legal costs presumably exempt the amortisation surged while the Profit on Disposal seemed to fall.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Small updates. Deloitte Money League have released some figures (I would suggest from those combined with my work that PSG recorded yet another €100m+ loss seemingly without censure but that's another issue)..

Some Chelsea specific figures from these!

Turnover

⬆️£481.3m to £512.5m..£31.2m rise.

Wages

⬆️£341.723m to £404.875m..£63.153m rise??

If so they're worse than  I thought. I'll wait for the audited accounts to  go public before full judgment but though the £70m+ impairment won't be repeated, legal costs presumably exempt the amortisation surged while the Profit on Disposal seemed to fall.

As Kieran Maguire pointed out they evidently haven't breached P&S as they haven't been charged.

However they are being investigated for much more serious matters as we have discussed on here recently.

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24 minutes ago, chinapig said:

As Kieran Maguire pointed out they evidently haven't breached P&S as they haven't been charged.

However they are being investigated for much more serious matters as we have discussed on here recently.

To last season, I agree.

It is the 3 year cycle to this season where I have the huge question marks.

Investigation for much more serious matters is separate and will take its course.

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https://www.astamfordbridgetoofar.com/2024/02/chelsea-could-offload-conor-gallagher-next-summer-to-comply-with-ffp-rules/

Whether they'll get the required or desired asking prices is another matter.

A June 30th deadline I reckon, same summer as the Euros. Mentions Chalobah, Maatsen, Gallagher, Broja.

Plus not renewing Thiago Silva.

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10 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

A column from Jonathan Wilson that gives more detail on Chelsea's finances (sourced from Swiss Ramble).

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/feb/05/todd-boehlys-chelsea-are-a-1bn-mess

It's hard to see how they can avoid sanctions in due course.

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https://chelsea.news/2024/02/journalist-says-chelsea-can-spend-300-350m-this-summer-and-explains-clubs-ffp-situation/

Supposedly Chelsea can spend £200m this summer irrespective of sales...

...Albeit this report seems to infer large sales required.

https://www.caughtoffside.com/2024/02/12/chelsea-transfer-news-gallagher-broja-lukaku-and-more-sales/

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I believe Ben Jacobs is a sports (i.e. not just football) journalist but I'm not sure he is any kind of financial expert.

I give more credence to Swiss Ramble as quoted in the article I linked above, specifically this:

For 2023-24, though, they would appear to be in big trouble, with Swiss Ramble estimating their losses for the three-year assessment period at £201m – and that was on an assumption they would finish sixth, which now looks extremely optimistic.

So they're going to have to generate an awful lot of transfer income to spend £200m. This is going to have to come mainly from home grown players as pure profit.

Spurs are keen on Gallagher but knowing Chelsea's plight may drive down the price. They're said to want £50m for Broja; no chance of getting that.

Edited by chinapig
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38 minutes ago, chinapig said:

I believe Ben Jacobs is a sports (i.e. not just football) journalist but I'm not sure he is any kind of financial expert.

I give more credence to Swiss Ramble as quoted in the article I linked above, specifically this:

For 2023-24, though, they would appear to be in big trouble, with Swiss Ramble estimating their losses for the three-year assessment period at £201m – and that was on an assumption they would finish sixth, which now looks extremely optimistic.

So they're going to have to generate an awful lot of transfer income to spend £200m. This is going to have to come mainly from home grown players as pure profit.

Spurs are keen on Gallagher but knowing Chelsea's plight may drive down the price. They're said to want £50m for Broja; no chance of getting that.

I tend to agree on this.

I do remember the Swiss Ramble, somewhere between £90-100m above as we can't be precise wirh this stuff but this may even have been before the apparent £400m wage bill last year.

Deloitte Money League shows the following year on year for Income and Wages..

...2021-22 vs 2022-23

Income

£481.2m vs £512.3m

Wages

£341.723m vs £404.875m

Whether the wages are individual club or the consolidator Idk.

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https://archive.is/2024.02.26-184841/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/02/26/chelsea-rivals-major-sales-needed-avoid-spending-breach-psr/

Chelsea say they're fine fwiw and no issues at all, and that any sales would just be to assist squad planning. The numbers don't exactly stack with that based on what we can extrapolate..perhaps they are trying to argue some huge exceptional items or debt writeoff on takeover.

However this number is broadly in line with what Swiss Ramble said in August, he estimated a £93m hole iirc.

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16 month period

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/13949552/filing-history/MzQxMzE1NTkyMmFkaXF6a2N4/document?format=pdf&download=0

Chelsea FC Holdings will still be the key bit, seems the Mount sale was in 2022-23.

Find it odd to say the least that they appear to have revalued Player Registrations UPWARDS on acquisition, this rather flies in the face of FRS 102 or standard to the industry policies anyway.

Screenshot_20240307-113522_OneDrive.thumb.jpg.e39e4c558bb8eaf1e2a0a018fd6e7dc8.jpg

They lost quite a lot last season albeit it is over 16 months so still hard to say. Seen £90m pre tax mentioned despite and including all of those Transfer Profits.

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