How to Sack a Manager

[ExiledAjax]

Cracking and very interesting podcast from Not The Top 20 and a guy from 21st Group.

A warning: if you are sensitive to the use of data and statistics in football analyiss then this probably isn't for you.

Ok, so some highlights that I thought were interesting:

• There's no correlation between experience and success at a certain level. That is, managers in their 5th or 6th job in the Premier League statistically do no better than rookie managers.
• On the impact of the manager on the performance of a club - the point being made that whilst the most important aspect is the average ability/level of the players, because there's only one manager, that appointment is incredibly important. Another way to say it is that you can carry one average player in a squad of 25, but you cannot carry one average manager.
• There should be a huge push on clubs improving succession planning, and on having a constantly evolving shortlist - they do it with players but apparently very few really do it with managers.
• The 'new manager bounce' is just regression to the mean, generally a club improves because they actually weren't that bad and had the change not been made results probably would have improved anyway - see Middlesbrough for a live example of this.

It's an interesting topic, and one we all discuss a lot, and this is an interesting discussion of it.

Our club, and our manager, do not get a specific mention.

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[chinapig]

7 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

There should be a huge push on clubs improving succession planning, and on having a constantly evolving shortlist - they do it with players but apparently very few really do it with managers.

The most important point I think. Brighton are renowned for doing this of course but it doesn't look like many clubs do.

Our preference is to sack the manager then have a rigorous 6 week process before appointing the wrong man.

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, chinapig said:

The most important point I think. Brighton are renowned for doing this of course but it doesn't look like many clubs do.

Our preference is to sack the manager then have a rigorous 6 week process before appointing the wrong man.

I think SL does have some sort of list. It was mentioned that he had kept tabs on Delboy and then LJ and Mark Robins. 

Although as is often the case with SL, he often has the right ideas but then has no idea how to implement those ideas.

[pongo88]

17 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I think SL does have some sort of list. It was mentioned that he had kept tabs on Delboy and then LJ and Mark Robins. 

Although as is often the case with SL, he often has the right ideas but then has no idea how to implement those ideas.

Perhaps he’s a fan of Morecambe and Wise - all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order

[pongo88]

An interesting case of how to sack a manager was when Gary Johnson left. They did a joint press conference 

[ExiledAjax]

19 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I think SL does have some sort of list. It was mentioned that he had kept tabs on Delboy and then LJ and Mark Robins. 

Although as is often the case with SL, he often has the right ideas but then has no idea how to implement those ideas.

The point made in the podcast is that you can't just have a list of managers you kind of like.

It needs to be a list drawn up with criteria in mind:

1. style of play (does the prospective manger's preferred style suit the players the club has);

2. is he in work or out of work (the general opinion was that you should poach an in work manager before going to the well of those out of work. They are out of work for a reason);

3. can he work to the budget the club has;

4. if he can, is he likely to outperform the budget?;

5. ultimately, is the appointment of that new manager likely to increase the chance of finishing higher up the table.

Personally when you look at our recent appointments, I'm not sure the answer has been "yes to all the above" in every case.

[petehinton]

5 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I think SL does have some sort of list. It was mentioned that he had kept tabs on Delboy and then LJ and Mark Robins. 

Although as is often the case with SL, he often has the right ideas but then has no idea how to implement those ideas.

I think he probably makes a retrospective list after they start doing well to reinvent history, as he always seems keen to talk about how he always rated someone/how he right about something, only whenever it shows him a good light! 
 

I’m sure he had Luton high up on his list of clubs to look at and take on board as how to structure a club back in 2021, or even this time last year!

[GrahamC]

5 hours ago, pongo88 said:

An interesting case of how to sack a manager was when Gary Johnson left. They did a joint press conference 

Thing is GJ left City 13 years ago now & was in charge of us for nearly 5.

Despite one lunatic on here he was an outstanding choice & also had realised by the end he’d run out of road.

Both these things were very unusual amongst our managerial appointments, think only his son has got anywhere near to a similar amount of time in charge since.

[42nite]

No need to sack a manager, if you want to get rid the conversation might go something like...

" We think you're doing great....but we're getting Barton in as your advisor......Oh bye then"

 

[petehinton]

On 12/10/2023 at 09:04, ExiledAjax said:

Cracking and very interesting podcast from Not The Top 20 and a guy from 21st Group.

A warning: if you are sensitive to the use of data and statistics in football analyiss then this probably isn't for you.

Ok, so some highlights that I thought were interesting:

• There's no correlation between experience and success at a certain level. That is, managers in their 5th or 6th job in the Premier League statistically do no better than rookie managers.
• On the impact of the manager on the performance of a club - the point being made that whilst the most important aspect is the average ability/level of the players, because there's only one manager, that appointment is incredibly important. Another way to say it is that you can carry one average player in a squad of 25, but you cannot carry one average manager.
• There should be a huge push on clubs improving succession planning, and on having a constantly evolving shortlist - they do it with players but apparently very few really do it with managers.
• The 'new manager bounce' is just regression to the mean, generally a club improves because they actually weren't that bad and had the change not been made results probably would have improved anyway - see Middlesbrough for a live example of this.

It's an interesting topic, and one we all discuss a lot, and this is an interesting discussion of it.

Our club, and our manager, do not get a specific mention.

 

Good listen and amazing how much of it is just fairly common sense.  
 

George made an excellent point that fans wanting managers sacked outside of a transfer window, Is probably down to the fact that there’s no other changes that can be made.
 

I always think there’s an element of just wanting something ‘exciting’ to happen at times when it comes to wanting a manager to be sacked or for there to be a change of any kind. 

[RoystonFoote'snephew]

Pre premier league, when football was football, Liverpool had a very successful spell promoting from their 'boot room'. Was that succession planning or just doing it on the cheap? 

[Glen hump]

On 12/10/2023 at 11:14, pongo88 said:

An interesting case of how to sack a manager was when Gary Johnson left. They did a joint press conference 

That was really strange, must of been uncomfortable for gj