5 games in 19 days [3/12-22/12] takes us to half way point and defines our season?

[headhunter]

We discussed on FBC Podcast this week and I went: 3-1-0-3-1 which totals 8 and would put us on 33 points which in simplistic terms equates to 66 for the season and a 9th>12th final placing - we are we are are as is so often said!

Is 8 points from 5 optimistic? Would keep us in touch with 6th.

 

[Davefevs]

If you look at our 5 game points tally over a period of time, 6 or 7 points is more likely.  But you add “strength of schedule”, opponent form, etc for more context.

Norwich City (h) 14th (-2 points on us) 6 points from last 5 games

Huddersfield Town (a) 21st (-6 points on us) 5 points from last 5 games

Blackburn Rovers (a) 7th (+3 points on us) 9 points from last 5 games

Sunderland (h) 11th (+1 point on us) 7 points from last 5 games

Hull City (h) 6th (+5 points on us) 10 points from last 5 games

~~~~~~~

Bristol City 7 points from last 5 games

You’ll notice I didn’t comment on the pod…one game at a time mantra for me.

FWIW - if we did get 8 points I’d see that as above par.  None of our opponents are on a bad run either.

We are likely to be running with the same 14 outfield players for most of this period too, unless Naismith is ok, or Nahki back towards the end of this group of fixtures.

A win on Sunday would be a big boost to commence the run.  Keeping Ashton Gate unbeaten over this period would be nice too.

[ExiledAjax]

13 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

FWIW - if we did get 8 points I’d see that as above par.  None of our opponents are on a bad run either.

Definitely.

Current season average is 1.39 ppg, xGF/xGA projection is 1.33 ppg.

8 from 5 is 1.6 ppg.

Gun to my head right now I'd say something like WWLDL is most likely, although tbh I'd say that could come in any order.

That's 7 from 5 or 1.4 ppg.

55 minutes ago, headhunter said:

Would keep us in touch with 6th.

Assuming that the teams above us all have a drop in form.

If you assume that we will not drop form, then you should presume that the other teams stay consistent as well.

If that's the assumption then each team above us should be given points consistent with their current form. To be fair you've done that in games against us, you've given all three teams currently above us at least a point in our games.

That means that the gap from us to 6th would actually grow in terms of points on the board.

We'd be further from 6th than we are now.

Edited December 1, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Super]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Definitely.

Current season average is 1.39 ppg, xGF/xGA projection is 1.33 ppg.

8 from 5 is 1.6 ppg.

Gun to my head right now I'd say something like WWLDL is most likely, although tbh I'd say that could come in any order.

That's 7 from 5 or 1.4 ppg.

Assuming that the teams above us all have a drop in form.

If you assume that we will not drop form, then you should presume that the other teams stay consistent as well.

If that's the assumption then each team above us should be given points consistent with their current form.

That means that the gap from us to 6th would actually grow in terms of points on the board.

We'd be further from 6th than we are now.

Top 6 is pretty much fantasy despite what we've been told. We don't have the strength in depth. A top half finish will be a good effort.

[GlastonburyRed]

Can't help think we are the very defintion of mid-table mediocrity, and will finish as such, with the change of manager having done nothing to either elevate or depress us from said position.

[FNQ]

22 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

If you look at our 5 game points tally over a period of time, 6 or 7 points is more likely.  But you add “strength of schedule”, opponent form, etc for more context.

Norwich City (h) 14th (-2 points on us) 6 points from last 5 games

Huddersfield Town (a) 21st (-6 points on us) 5 points from last 5 games

Blackburn Rovers (a) 7th (+3 points on us) 9 points from last 5 games

Sunderland (h) 11th (+1 point on us) 7 points from last 5 games

Hull City (h) 6th (+5 points on us) 10 points from last 5 games

~~~~~~~

Bristol City 7 points from last 5 games

You’ll notice I didn’t comment on the pod…one game at a time mantra for me.

FWIW - if we did get 8 points I’d see that as above par.  None of our opponents are on a bad run either.

We are likely to be running with the same 14 outfield players for most of this period too, unless Naismith is ok, or Nahki back towards the end of this group of fixtures.

A win on Sunday would be a big boost to commence the run.  Keeping Ashton Gate unbeaten over this period would be nice too.

Of the 5 games, none of the home games on paper are as tough as Boro… neither of the away games will be as tough as Southampton, where we were unlucky not to get at least a point.. So we should be optimistic, we were also the better side in the draw with Hull earlier this season.. 11 points

[Sir Geoff]

2 wins a draw and 2 losses would seem about right. 

[Davefevs]

9 minutes ago, FNQ said:

Of the 5 games, none of the home games on paper are as tough as Boro… neither of the away games will be as tough as Southampton, where we were unlucky not to get at least a point.. So we should be optimistic, we were also the better side in the draw with Hull earlier this season.. 11 points

Love it.  Would be a great time to put a run together.

[Sir Geoff]

8 minutes ago, FNQ said:

Of the 5 games, none of the home games on paper are as tough as Boro… neither of the away games will be as tough as Southampton, where we were unlucky not to get at least a point.. So we should be optimistic, we were also the better side in the draw with Hull earlier this season.. 11 points

A bit of what you're on please. I take it that's three 1-0 wins and two 0-0 draws. We've scored 10 goals in 11 games and 7 of those came in 3 matches.

[FNQ]

3 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

A bit of what you're on please. I take it that's three 1-0 wins and two 0-0 draws. We've scored 10 goals in 11 games and 7 of those came in 3 matches.

Well I did say we should be optimistic… but really shouldn’t we be competitive against these 5 teams? Which 2 games do you see us losing?

[ExiledAjax]

4 minutes ago, FNQ said:

Well I did say we should be optimistic… but really shouldn’t we be competitive against these 5 teams? Which 2 games do you see us losing?

But you can be competitive and still lose.

[Sir Geoff]

Just now, FNQ said:

Well I did say we should be optimistic… but really shouldn’t we be competitive against these 5 teams? Which 2 games do you see us losing?

Good for you, love the optimism. I never predict which games are lose or win as just as likely to be the reverse of what anyone thinks. We could lose any or win any of them.

At the moment with the injuries and the players adapting to a different 'style' I think we lack a bit of edge / quality to just get the results our work rate deserves.

I'd be happy with 7/8 points. Hoping for 15 as I'm going to all the games.

[W-S-M Seagull]

I'm just taking it game by game at the moment. 

I would like to see some of this attacking football that we were promised tho.

[Clutton Caveman]

21 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

But you can be competitive and still lose.

I think the way that LM wants to play is really physically demanding and I think we don't at this point have the squad size and depth to support it. Players run more miles per game than ever and the pace is higher. This does not go well with running a thin squad backed up by kids.

[Clutton Caveman]

28 minutes ago, FNQ said:

Well I did say we should be optimistic… but really shouldn’t we be competitive against these 5 teams? Which 2 games do you see us losing?

Problem is, if we cannot take the chances when they come, our defence needs to be prefect.

[italian dave]

21 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I'm just taking it game by game at the moment. 

I would like to see some of this attacking football that we were promised tho.

Southampton first half?

Problem is, you need to be able to stick the ball in the net at the end of it! 

[hollydog]

54 minutes ago, FNQ said:

Of the 5 games, none of the home games on paper are as tough as Boro… neither of the away games will be as tough as Southampton, where we were unlucky not to get at least a point.. So we should be optimistic, we were also the better side in the draw with Hull earlier this season.. 11 points

We should be optimistic but we’ve yet to win back to back this season so I’m not!

[Malago]

Our season was defined when the owner trousered the money from the Alex Scott sale instead of reinvesting it in the team.

[Guest]

I think when trying to forecast a sequence of games there are too many unknowns for it to be anything other than guesswork, stating the obvious.

One game at a time is a simple truth, how that game pans out and the game our next opponent is playing can have a major impact on the next fixture.

Injuries and  suspensions are just a couple of factors along with the hugely competitive nature of this league, which leads sometimes to results like Sheffield Wednesday against Leicester.

While targets can be set based on current knowledge, so that say 7 points are achievable, those 7 points may not be achieved in the way imagined.

Would be interesting to see how accurate individually the forecasts above are after the group of matches take place.

[Mr Popodopolous]

We got 10 from this 5 game bloc last year but I also accept Hull e.g. are notably better than they were and we have lost Scott, had Semenyo for half a season and then we have a host of injuries.

Too many variables, 7 maybe 8 sounds about the max.

Edited December 1, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[GrahamC]

2 hours ago, GlastonburyRed said:

Can't help think we are the very defintion of mid-table mediocrity, and will finish as such, with the change of manager having done nothing to either elevate or depress us from said position.

Depends if you see mid table as “mediocrity” I suppose? At present we are above Watford & Norwich with their parachute payments.

For much of the 21st century we would have killed to be at this level, 4 years of going absolutely nowhere under Wilson, Tinnion’s awful spell in charge. Relegation under SOD & then falling further until Cotts arrived.

I don’t believe a word our chairman or Tinnion say, we are no more a top six outfit than Swansea, being well clear of trouble is a start & the new chap then gets half a season to see how he shapes things within our constraints, as far as I’m concerned.

[cidercity1987]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

If you look at our 5 game points tally over a period of time, 6 or 7 points is more likely.  But you add “strength of schedule”, opponent form, etc for more context.

Norwich City (h) 14th (-2 points on us) 6 points from last 5 games

Huddersfield Town (a) 21st (-6 points on us) 5 points from last 5 games

Blackburn Rovers (a) 7th (+3 points on us) 9 points from last 5 games

Sunderland (h) 11th (+1 point on us) 7 points from last 5 games

Hull City (h) 6th (+5 points on us) 10 points from last 5 games

~~~~~~~

Bristol City 7 points from last 5 games

You’ll notice I didn’t comment on the pod…one game at a time mantra for me.

FWIW - if we did get 8 points I’d see that as above par.  None of our opponents are on a bad run either.

We are likely to be running with the same 14 outfield players for most of this period too, unless Naismith is ok, or Nahki back towards the end of this group of fixtures.

A win on Sunday would be a big boost to commence the run.  Keeping Ashton Gate unbeaten over this period would be nice too.

Norwich H won last season, no reason not to repeat

Huddersfield A, draw last season, seems about as expected this year

Blackburn A, we won last season and have a good record up there. I think our style counteracts theirs very well particularly away. Draw if not better

Sunderland H, lost but won the EG. I think a draw

Hull H, won last season but they are vastly improved. Could be a massive game if we put a run of form together but another draw maybe

 

Unlikely to draw 4 out 5 but ultimately we have beaten poor teams and lost to good teams so maybe we now draw against fellow midtable fodder. I certainly don't see too many defeats in the next five?

 

[22A]

I think our season may already be defined.

We've won and lost an equal amount off games and scored and conceded an equal amount of goals.

[SomeRandomBristolian]

My thought's on the next 5 games are... that I will turn up, cross my fingers and hope for the best.  

Hopefully we will be picking up a few decent results as we go though the next lot of fixtures. Getting through the next lot of games without any more of our players getting injured will also be a bonus. Especially as we have a small squad, and a run of games really close together. 

Championship is to unpredictable to call sometimes. 

[Davefevs]

43 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Norwich H won last season, no reason not to repeat

Huddersfield A, draw last season, seems about as expected this year

Blackburn A, we won last season and have a good record up there. I think our style counteracts theirs very well particularly away. Draw if not better

Sunderland H, lost but won the EG. I think a draw

Hull H, won last season but they are vastly improved. Could be a massive game if we put a run of form together but another draw maybe

 

Unlikely to draw 4 out 5 but ultimately we have beaten poor teams and lost to good teams so maybe we now draw against fellow midtable fodder. I certainly don't see too many defeats in the next five?

 

I expect them all to be close games, fine margins and all that.

[Lanterne Rouge]

I`m not confident about Blackburn away at all and fear a hammering. They`re in pretty good form and with Szmodics scoring for fun ATM I`d take a point right now.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Blackburn are a strange side.

They score quite a few but they also concede and in particular concede/allow a lot of chances.

Just checked 306 shots against this season in the League!

They can definitely be got at but will pose a goal threat too..Szmodics could have a point to prove. If we can take advantage of their fairly open style though especially as the away side.

Edited December 1, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[REDOXO]

1 hour ago, mason said:

Strong defence, powder puff midfield and non existant strike force = we are going no-where.

Please dont sign/loan anymore for the future the time is now not tomorrow,next day, next month....talisman proven striker and a midfield general/boss required

That’s the spirit!

Personally speaking the problem is missing chances! This has been a problem regardless of who has been fit and who hasn’t. 
 

We have a new coach/s who I assume will be working on things in the areas where we should be better, however with our forwards form is temporary and as we got three against Boro it’s entirely possible we might see an uptick with a change of approach. 
 

Goals from midfield have been an issue since Murray packed it up. Weimann can get a goal obviously but he really looks off it. Hopefully Mr Manning can provide some inspiration
 

Hickman gave a little glimpse and a couple from James have helped but not even Scott changed that. 
 

You guys who watch U21 football is there anyone coming through who could get a few. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

31 minutes ago, REDOXO said:

That’s the spirit!

Personally speaking the problem is missing chances! This has been a problem regardless of who has been fit and who hasn’t. 
 

We have a new coach/s who I assume will be working on things in the areas where we should be better, however with our forwards form is temporary and as we got three against Boro it’s entirely possible we might see an uptick with a change of approach. 
 

Goals from midfield have been an issue since Murray packed it up. Weimann can get a goal obviously but he really looks off it. Hopefully Mr Manning can provide some inspiration
 

Hickman gave a little glimpse and a couple from James have helped but not even Scott changed that. 
 

You guys who watch U21 football is there anyone coming through who could get a few. 

It's hard to say really. Our shot and creation dafa doesn't really justify that mant more goals, perhaps 2-3 more over the season- but know what you mean about big chancss at key times.

[Davefevs]

Sundays numbers match up:

City - Cold attack / hot defence

Norwich - Hot attack / cold defence