fairweather Posted February 14 Report Share Posted February 14 Some chat about us putting ourselves in the playoff chase on the TV commentary after the Soton game. For those that like this kind of thing the numbers are pleasingly round Coventry in 6th. 4pts ahead and +11 goal difference - have exactly 1.5 pts/game. For us to gain 5 pts on them (and obvs the rest of the field) within 14 games requires exactly 2.0 pts/game. 2.0 pts/game is 28 pts giving a total of 72pts. Average of 7th place in championship finish is 71.6pts. That would be the mathematical minimum to scape into 6th. If we arrived in the playoffs in that form it would be the same as the season form of whichever of Leeds, Soton and Ipswich misses out on 2nd. So pleasingly round numbers 28 points is extremely unlikely but it shows we were not that far away from the bottom rung 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malago Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 To reach 72 points realistically we have to win the next 3 games. Beyond that home games against Swansea, Huddersfield, Rotherham and Blackburn are also must win. That leaves Sunderland and Stoke away as games where we could win. The likelihood of winning all these games is low to say the least. I don’t know what the odds of us getting into the playoffs is, but I would looking for at least 10-1 before I would risk any of my hard earned cash. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted February 15 Admin Report Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, Malago said: To reach 72 points realistically we have to win the next 3 games. Beyond that home games against Swansea, Huddersfield, Rotherham and Blackburn are also must win. That leaves Sunderland and Stoke away as games where we could win. The likelihood of winning all these games is low to say the least. I don’t know what the odds of us getting into the playoffs is, but I would looking for at least 10-1 before I would risk any of my hard earned cash. .....and you'd likely get close to those 10/1 odds just betting on us to win the next 3 games and rolling the winnings after each game. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, Malago said: To reach 72 points realistically we have to win the next 3 games. Beyond that home games against Swansea, Huddersfield, Rotherham and Blackburn are also must win. That leaves Sunderland and Stoke away as games where we could win. The likelihood of winning all these games is low to say the least. I don’t know what the odds of us getting into the playoffs is, but I would looking for at least 10-1 before I would risk any of my hard earned cash. 14/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidercity1987 Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 I agree we need 27/28 points or similar and it's incredibly unlikely We but have to play to win , forget the draws as they won't do anything for us coming from this far behind. 9 wins from 14 seems impossible. But taking a game or two at a time if just for once we win the next two games that we should on paper (QPR / Sheff Wed). 7 wins from 12 then looks something more achieveable if still very unlikely 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidercity1987 Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, And Its Smith said: 14/1 What odds you giving if we are 50 points from 34 games and 2 points behind 6th? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 We've got Sunderland, Norwich and West Brom still to play - away - which is good in that they are 6 pointers, but unfortunately, as well as winning the next 3 games to get closer to par, we probably need to win all three of those. If City manage that, I'll live off nothing but Natch for a month 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 With the benefit of hindsight, if only we'd held onto that lead v Coventry... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonBristolian Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 (edited) I agree it is highly unlikely we are going to make the play-offs but I think the way these numbers are presented is a bit of an over-simplification. For example, 28 points is NOT the mathematical minimum we need to get into the play-offs. It is the likely minimum we will need assuming that teams above us continue to perform on the same level. There are 5 teams around the same number of points between us and the play off places so it is likely that at least one of those will continue to perform at the same level or better but it is not a mathematical impossibility that all of them drop to a maximum of, say, 1.375 points a game putting them on 69 points, for example. And an “average”number of points is an average, not a guarantee. Don’t get me wrong - the most logical projection would be that the numbers in the original post are roughly right (although there is a definite possibility that at least one of the five teams above us will perform better than they have to date meaning 72 points would not be enough). However, being pedantic, it frustrates me when people present a logical projection based on previous date as a “mathematical minimum” as the two are not the same thing. Edited February 15 by LondonBristolian 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 Yep, as @LondonBristolian points out, the main issue is that there are half a dozen or so teams above us who will also get points, and have a head start on us. I posted the following prior to last night's games in the Manning thread, but now there's one dedicated to crushing people's play off dreams with maths I'll copy it over to here. A run of 15 points from 7 games gives us 59 points. You're therefore relying on each of the teams above us picking up no more than 11 (1.57 ppg) in the case of Norwich and Hull, or 12 (1.71 ppg) in the case of Coventry and Sunderland. If any one of them managed to achieve that then they'd inevitably have a better GD than us and we'd stay 7th or maybe even 8th. Coventry and Norwich are both currently on 13 points from their last 6 (2.16 ppg). Sunderland are on 10 from 6 (1.66 ppg) and Hull on 9 from 6 (1.5 ppg). So even if we do what you say and go at 2.14 ppg over the next few games, you need all 4 of those teams in that play off chasing pack to drop form if we were to move into the top 6. That's why it's so unlikely to happen even if we go on an incredible unbeaten run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 Are we safe from relegation ? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 Isn't it great that we're able to have this conversation as we approach March. There was a lot of 'season over' comments after we went out of the cup, and I understand that emotional reaction, but basically while there's enough games to go on a crazy winning streak, we needn't give up completely. I totally expect us finish between 10th and 14th, but then I also didn't think we'd bear Boro and Soton so what do I know?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Major Isewater said: Are we safe from relegation ? Major, if we lose every single game left in the season... we're in big trouble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elhombrecito Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 All this maths is sucking any joy out of a possible playoff push! Let's just enjoy each game as it comes... 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, cidercity1987 said: What odds you giving if we are 50 points from 34 games and 2 points behind 6th? Not up to me. 14/1 is the bookies odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 47 minutes ago, elhombrecito said: All this maths is sucking any joy out of a possible playoff push! Let's just enjoy each game as it comes... Sorry, but you only have a 30% probability of enjoying every game as it comes... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeRed Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 49 minutes ago, elhombrecito said: All this maths is sucking any joy out of a possible playoff push! Let's just enjoy each game as it comes... You're right, far too much maths debating on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W-S-M Seagull Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, mozo said: With the benefit of hindsight, if only we'd held onto that lead v Coventry... Our season has been defined by 7 wins out of 17 and within that going on two winless runs. We can pick out a few games within those runs where we should have won or at least picked up a point. Failure to do so has cost us. For example, Coventry always seem to find a way to pick up points. Last night they had basically lost and then score with the last kick of the game. This is what we need to get much better at doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, mozo said: Major, if we lose every single game left in the season... we're in big trouble 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1960maaan Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 38 minutes ago, CodeRed said: You're right, far too much maths debating on here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slartibartfast Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 I work on the assumption that on a "good run" over a period you can pick up a point over teams above you . We COULD be level after four/five games, or might take much longer, but there is still hope . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 Even if City go on a winning/unbeaten run it’s impossible to anticipate what the results of other clubs will be. City still have the Tractor Boys and the Baggies away, home to runaway Leicester, away at Carrow Rd and without looking at all the Championship fixtures no doubt most of the other clubs in the running will be taking points of each other and it’ll be interesting to look at the table after each round of fixtures. Personally I’m delighted that we’re having this kind of thread with just 14 games to go. There’s still plenty to play for. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogkev Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 Bugger the maths! haha, Take it a game at a time, only 4 pts off and playing some cracking football. It's definitely possible. Just have to keep up the recent high levels of form, oh and of course beat QPR! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, reddogkev said: Bugger the maths! haha, Take it a game at a time, only 4 pts off and playing some cracking football. It's definitely possible. Just have to keep up the recent high levels of form, oh and of course beat QPR! Yeah, and lady luck too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W-S-M Seagull Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Robbored said: Even if City go on a winning/unbeaten run it’s impossible to anticipate what the results of other clubs will be. City still have the Tractor Boys and the Baggies away, home to runaway Leicester, away at Carrow Rd and without looking at all the Championship fixtures no doubt most of the other clubs in the running will be taking points of each other and it’ll be interesting to look at the table after each round of fixtures. Personally I’m delighted that we’re having this kind of thread with just 14 games to go. There’s still plenty to play for. That's a bit tinpot isn't it? I can understand what you mean in the context of the last couple of seasons have been shite for various reasons. However to be delighted to be 4 points off is ott. Putting aside the management of the club and focusing on the results this season, we should be disappointed that we are 4 points off at this stage of the season. In my opinion the most obvious examples of us dropping points has been against Hull (a) West Brom (h) Stoke (h) QPR (a) Norwich (h) Huddersfield (a) Brum (a) Millwall (h) Coventry (a) That's cost us hugely. Edited February 15 by W-S-M Seagull Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveF Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 9 hours ago, fairweather said: Some chat about us putting ourselves in the playoff chase on the TV commentary after the Soton game. For those that like this kind of thing the numbers are pleasingly round Coventry in 6th. 4pts ahead and +11 goal difference - have exactly 1.5 pts/game. For us to gain 5 pts on them (and obvs the rest of the field) within 14 games requires exactly 2.0 pts/game. 2.0 pts/game is 28 pts giving a total of 72pts. Average of 7th place in championship finish is 71.6pts. That would be the mathematical minimum to scape into 6th. If we arrived in the playoffs in that form it would be the same as the season form of whichever of Leeds, Soton and Ipswich misses out on 2nd. So pleasingly round numbers 28 points is extremely unlikely but it shows we were not that far away from the bottom rung 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
22A Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 OK since the 2015 promotion, the 6th placed teams in this division have achieved 2016 - 74pts, 2017 - 80pts, 2018 - 75 pts, 2019 - 74pts, 2020 - 70pts, 2021 - 77pts, 2022 - 75 pts and last season - 77pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 (edited) 30 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said: That's a bit tinpot isn't it? I can understand what you mean in the context of the last couple of seasons have been shite for various reasons. However to be delighted to be 4 points off is ott. Putting aside the management of the club and focusing on the results this season, we should be disappointed that we are 4 points off at this stage of the season. Rather that ‘tin pot’ I’d call it wishful thinking. I’m happy enough where we are and who can say that had Nige stayed that we wouldn’t be in a similar position? We’ll never know. It looks as if Mannings methods (whatever they are) are starting to effect results and being in with a shout with roughly a third of the season left is where I hoped we’d be - as I do every season. Edited February 15 by Robbored Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, mozo said: With the benefit of hindsight, if only we'd held onto that lead v Coventry... And not lost to Norwich. 3 more points there and less for them. I imagine every team has ‘what ifs’ across a season, but just shows the thin lines. I think more objectively it’s home defeats to the likes of Stoke and Millwall that sink us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidercity1987 Posted February 15 Report Share Posted February 15 (edited) 6 minutes ago, 22A said: OK since the 2015 promotion, the 6th placed teams in this division have achieved 2016 - 74pts, 2017 - 80pts, 2018 - 75 pts, 2019 - 74pts, 2020 - 70pts, 2021 - 77pts, 2022 - 75 pts and last season - 77pts. Last season is definitely wrong. 4th didn't even get 77 points and 6th was 69 points Edited February 15 by cidercity1987 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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