The Run In

[Ian M]

The last couple of results has seen various members of OTIB start to dabble with dreams of what might be, so I decided to look a little into what those clubs who may still harbour ambitions of qualifying for the play-offs may face in the remaining games.

The consensus from various threads seems to be that firstly, Leicester are up & Leeds/Soton/Ipswich are fighting for that other automatic spot and secondly, that teams down as far as Cardiff in 14th, may have some level of hope that a good run-in could see them take one of the remaining play-off spots.

With one of the easiest run-ins I think West Brom will need to do very badly in the games against their rivals for the play-offs to not make it, so that leaves the teams in 6th to 14th chasing one-spot. Of those sides, we currently have the least amount of games against the top4/play-off chasers so key to our hopes will be the other 8 games we have.

We know from years of following City that we are unlikely to win all the games against the sides 15th, 16th, 17th, 19th, 20th, 22nd, 23rd & 24th but if, as a play-off chasing side, we did, that would give us a base of 68 points to add to with our 6 game against sides in one of the two promotion races.

 

 

[George Rs]

3 minutes ago, Ian M said:

The last couple of results has seen various members of OTIB start to dabble with dreams of what might be, so I decided to look a little into what those clubs who may still harbour ambitions of qualifying for the play-offs may face in the remaining games.

The consensus from various threads seems to be that firstly, Leicester are up & Leeds/Soton/Ipswich are fighting for that other automatic spot and secondly, that teams down as far as Cardiff in 14th, may have some level of hope that a good run-in could see them take one of the remaining play-off spots.

With one of the easiest run-ins I think West Brom will need to do very badly in the games against their rivals for the play-offs to not make it, so that leaves the teams in 6th to 14th chasing one-spot. Of those sides, we currently have the least amount of games against the top4/play-off chasers so key to our hopes will be the other 8 games we have.

We know from years of following City that we are unlikely to win all the games against the sides 15th, 16th, 17th, 19th, 20th, 22nd, 23rd & 24th but if, as a play-off chasing side, we did, that would give us a base of 68 points to add to with our 6 game against sides in one of the two promotion races.

 

 

Very interesting post! Was going to look into the same thing with average league position left for teams around us to play against but you’ve done the work for me! 
 

I never expected us to get playoffs this season, and we haven’t spent enough money to force me to change that view so if we don’t get there it won’t bother me. But I was after at least a top 10 finish, which I think is doable with our remaining games and current squad. 
 

Hopefully we are in with a shout until the last game week or two to keep things interesting. Would really like us to finish this season strong as that’s a rarity for city, would also give us some confidence going into the next campaign! 

[Ian M]

5 minutes ago, George Rs said:

Very interesting post! Was going to look into the same thing with average league position left for teams around us to play against but you’ve done the work for me! 
 

I never expected us to get playoffs this season, and we haven’t spent enough money to force me to change that view so if we don’t get there it won’t bother me. But I was after at least a top 10 finish, which I think is doable with our remaining games and current squad. 
 

Hopefully we are in with a shout until the last game week or two to keep things interesting. Would really like us to finish this season strong as that’s a rarity for city, would also give us some confidence going into the next campaign! 

I have watched City for far too long to even be confident of winning the next two against 22nd and 23rd but had a spare 10 mins so thought I'd investigate. I think I would start to believe it was possible if we do somehow beat Wednesday & QPR.

[George Rs]

2 minutes ago, Ian M said:

I have watched City for far too long to even be confident of winning the next two against 22nd and 23rd but had a spare 10 mins so thought I'd investigate. I think I would start to believe it was possible if we do somehow beat Wednesday & QPR.

Yeah, I said a couple weeks back these next 3 seem like make and break for the remainder of the season. But it’s always the hope that kills you

[Davefevs]

West Brom v Southampton tonight at 8pm.

[Ian M]

Even with a game in hand it looks tough for Hull as they face 9 of the top teams. Lots of opportunity for points to be dropped.

[ExiledAjax]

A fine piece of work @Ian M. To add a bit of colour I present the excellent work done by the guys at soccerstats.

You want to look at the blue column, which shows the average points per game achieved by the teams that each club still has to play. It accounts for ppg gained at home and gained away.

You'll see that by this measure we face a fairly average run in compared to our peers. You're quite right to say that WBA have a pretty easy one, but so do Norwich, and Preston's is also looking gentler than ours. 

We may well have a decent chance of getting above Sunderland and Hull, but beyond that it will be tricky to reel teams in.

Edited February 16 by ExiledAjax

[W-S-M Seagull]

We have a fantastic opportunity here if only we can take it! 

[Davefevs]

Preston are hugely overachieving their underlying numbers.  Famous last words but I see them falling away.

[TV Tom]

11 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Preston are hugely overachieving their underlying numbers.  Famous last words but I see them falling away.

They seem to of overachieved every season since we came up together

[ExiledAjax]

45 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

We have a fantastic opportunity here if only we can take it! 

I think we have an opportunity. I don't want to build it up as I think the most probable ending to this is a 10th or 11th placed finish, and I don't think that should be judged as a failure because I think that ultimately that would be about par for the season.

But yes, there is an opportunity. I'd call it slim rather than fantastic, but that's my opinion and yours is yours.

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, Ian M said:

I have watched City for far too long to even be confident of winning the next two against 22nd and 23rd but had a spare 10 mins so thought I'd investigate. I think I would start to believe it was possible if we do somehow beat Wednesday & QPR.

I'm with you on that, the number of times we've done the hard work against the odds , only to stuff up when it seems easier to win . I'm out with QPR family and friends Saturday, so could be even worse.

If we win tomorrow , I might think that the £100 train trip to Sheffield might be worth it. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

5 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I think we have an opportunity. I don't want to build it up as I think the most probable ending to this is a 10th or 11th placed finish, and I don't think that should be judged as a failure because I think that ultimately that would be about par for the season.

But yes, there is an opportunity. I'd call it slim rather than fantastic, but that's my opinion and yours is yours.

I look at is as its in our own hands due to the other teams all playing each other. So that's why I consider it to be a fantastic opportunity. 

[TDarwall]

8 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I look at is as its in our own hands due to the other teams all playing each other. So that's why I consider it to be a fantastic opportunity. 

It's anything other than "in our own hands" really.   The teams that occupy the top 6 places, it's in their hands. We could have a really strong end to the season, but unless a no. of other teams fall back majorly, we won't get top 6.

[mozo]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

West Brom v Southampton tonight at 8pm.

Come on Saints!

[ExiledAjax]

20 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I look at is as its in our own hands due to the other teams all playing each other. So that's why I consider it to be a fantastic opportunity. 

And I say it's not in our hands.

We could win all 14 games and still not make top 6.

Coventry could win every game.

WBA could win every game but their game against Coventry.

I think the above is correct, and that leaves us short.

[W-S-M Seagull]

31 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

And I say it's not in our hands.

We could win all 14 games and still not make top 6.

Coventry could win every game.

WBA could win every game but their game against Coventry.

I think the above is correct, and that leaves us short.

Realistically were not going to win every game.

Neither will West Brom

Neither will Coventry. 

That's why I think it's in our own hands. It's OK to disagree. Neither of us are right or wrong here. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

Using a simple metric of the top 4 will beat anyone outside of the top 4 and that games against each other will be a draw

And 5-14th will win against those below 14th and draw against each other, my final table is -

1 Leicester 116

2 Ipswich 106

3 Leeds 102

4 Southampton 100

5 West Brom 79

6 Norwich 74

7 Preston 74

8 Bristol City 72

9 Coventry 71

10 Sunderland 70

11 Hull 70

12 Cardiff 67

13 Middlesbrough  66

14 Watford  62

 

Edited February 16 by W-S-M Seagull

[INCRED]

It’s all about momentum and a little bit of luck, we certainly appear to have the start of a run of good form. We just need some good luck with injuries and the bounce of the ball and who knows 

[Ian M]

3 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Using a simple metric of the top 4 will beat anyone outside of the top 4 and that games against each other will be a draw

 

And 5-14th will win against those below 14th and draw against each other, my final table is -

 

1 Leicester 46 +44 116

2 Ipswich 46 +19 106

3 Leeds 46 +33 102

4 Southampton 45 +23 100

5 West Brom 45 +16 79

6 Norwich 46 +5 74

7 Preston 46 -8 74

8 Bristol City 46 +2 72

9 Coventry 46 +13 71

10 Sunderland 46 +9 70

11 Hull 46 +5 70

12 Cardiff 46 -7 67

13 Middlesbrough 46 -1 66

14 Watford 46 +3 62

 

 

 

All of the above but City win at Carrow Road works for me.

[W-S-M Seagull]

4 minutes ago, Ian M said:

All of the above but City win at Carrow Road works for me.

What we need to do is beat all those below 14th and then try to pick up a win against the likes of Cardiff and Norwich. 

Edited February 16 by W-S-M Seagull

[Sleepy1968]

Really, we are in last chance salon with respect to having enough games to mount an outside chance of reaching 6th place.

If we can maintain the levels and quality we did v Southampton for most of the run in, even going into the the last few games needing 3 wins and a good following wind would be magic.

Anyway, one game at a time lads and lasses.

 

[TDarwall]

22 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

 

That's why I think it's in our own hands. It's OK to disagree. Neither of us are right or wrong here. 

I think you are wrong. If its in our own hands it must be clearly be in the own hands of every team from us up to 6th place.  It can't be in all those clubs own hands when there is only at most 2 places to fight for.

If there are a few games to go & you're occupying 6th space, then its in your own hands.  With so many games to go, I'm not sure the phrase is even appropriate, but it certainly doesn't apply to us.

It's in our own hands to have a strong finish to the season, but not to get in the top 6.

 

 

 

 

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 minute ago, TDarwall said:

I think you are wrong. If its in our own hands it must be clearly be in the own hands of every team from us up to 6th place.  It can't be in all those clubs own hands when there is only at most 2 places to fight for.

If there are a few games to go & you're occupying 6th space, then its in your own hands.  With so many games to go, I'm not sure the phrase is even appropriate, but it certainly doesn't apply to us.

It's in our own hands to have a strong finish to the season, but not to get in the top 6.

 

 

 

 

Coventry will not win all their games against Leeds, Southampton, Ipswich, West Brom as well as against Watford, Preston, Cardiff and Hull. 

There will be a lot of points dropped by teams playing each other. 

If we can get ourselves around 30+ points, we'll get in the play offs. That's why in my opinion it's in our own hands.

 

 

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Coventry will not win all their games against Leeds, Southampton, Ipswich, West Brom as well as against Watford, Preston, Cardiff and Hull. 

There will be a lot of points dropped by teams playing each other. 

If we can get ourselves around 30+ points, we'll get in the play offs. That's why in my opinion it's in our own hands.

 

 

It’s in our hands to get 30+ points.

Its not in our hands what the other teams do.

[mozo]

Probably a better phrase is it's in our gift, not in our hands.

[tin]

Let’s see how we get on tomorrow. We always struggle to break down sides who sit in at the Gate and QPR will be no different tomorrow. It’s games like those we need to consistently win, and don’t we need something like 2pts a game from here on in to even be in with a sniff? Would be incredible if it happens, but the odds are against us and a top-half finish is what I expected at the start of the season. Anything better is a bonus IMO.

[W-S-M Seagull]

5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

It’s in our hands to get 30+ points.

Its not in our hands what the other teams do.

It would just be our luck Dave that we'd get those 30 points and then the other teams do too

But I think 30 points would be about enough. 

[Kibs]

We’ve averaged 1.375 PPG over 32 games, and now we’re talking about getting 30+ points from 14 games - 2.14 PPG, which would be nearly 100 points over a season…..

And given we’ve won our last two, that would mean we finished the last 16 games averaging 2.25 PPG, 103.5 points over a season!!!

I’m all for optimism but I think you’re getting carried away!! 

[PHILINFRANCE]

3 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

A fine piece of work @Ian M. To add a bit of colour I present the excellent work done by the guys at soccerstats.

You want to look at the blue column, which shows the average points per game achieved by the teams that each club still has to play. It accounts for ppg gained at home and gained away.

You'll see that by this measure we face a fairly average run in compared to our peers. You're quite right to say that WBA have a pretty easy one, but so do Norwich, and Preston's is also looking gentler than ours. 

We may well have a decent chance of getting above Sunderland and Hull, but beyond that it will be tricky to reel teams in.

All of which makes those late goals conceded against Norwich, Millwall and Coventry look even more frustrating.

Not to mention Stoke.