The Run In

[Ian M]

15 minutes ago, Kibs said:

We’ve averaged 1.375 PPG over 32 games, and now we’re talking about getting 30+ points from 14 games - 2.14 PPG, which would be nearly 100 points over a season…..

And given we’ve won our last two, that would mean we finished the last 16 games averaging 2.25 PPG, 103.5 points over a season!!!

I’m all for optimism but I think you’re getting carried away!! 

To be fair, it’s the first time this season we’ve had a strong bench.
As such, our 5 subs can maintain the standard of our starting 11.

5 players make up 45.45% of the team so we can expect to do 45.45% better.

45.45% better than 1.375 points per game is 2 ppg.

2 ppg is 28 points.

So we are simply theorising that we outperform this by 2 points.

Drink the Kool Aid!

 

[transfer reader]

43 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

It’s in our hands to get 30+ points.

Its not in our hands what the other teams do.

I don't believe it's possible for all the teams above us to reach the amount of points necessary, if we go on a very good run. 

I haven't gone through the permutations, but I'm pretty sure that even with our 4 point deficit there is a points tally we could get which would make it impossible for most if not all of the sides above us and in the playoff hunt for 6th to still finish above us because of the fixture lists.

It is quite likely an extreme amount (possibly even maximum points) but that would still make it within our own hands.

Edited February 16 by transfer reader

[W-S-M Seagull]

8 minutes ago, Kibs said:

We’ve averaged 1.375 PPG over 32 games, and now we’re talking about getting 30+ points from 14 games - 2.14 PPG, which would be nearly 100 points over a season…..

And given we’ve won our last two, that would mean we finished the last 16 games averaging 2.25 PPG, 103.5 points over a season!!!

I’m all for optimism but I think you’re getting carried away!! 

At the 32 game point last season Coventry were 5 points off the play offs. 

I don't think anyone thought they would get play offs. But they did. Think they only lost one game for the rest of the season and that was key. 

So it can be done. 

We have 14 games to get around 30 points. More could be needed, less could be needed. 

Forget about what's happened before now. We have a 14 game season. It can be done, we can do it so let's do it. 

If say we win our next two games like we should and we then suddenly find ourselves in 6th or 7th, should we just down tools and give up because we averaged 1.375 over 32 games? So therefore it must be impossible for us to pick up enough points to stay in 6th? 

It's a 14 game season now. We don't need to play every team. Compared to others we have a favourable fixture list on paper. 

[cidercity1987]

7 minutes ago, Ian M said:

To be fair, it’s the first time this season we’ve had a strong bench.
As such, our 5 subs can maintain the standard of our starting 11.

5 players make up 45.45% of the team so we can expect to do 45.45% better.

45.45% better than 1.375 points per game is 2 ppg.

2 ppg is 28 points.

So we are simply theorising that we outperform this by 2 points.

Drink the Kool Aid!

 

5 subs are on the pitch an average of 20 mins at best

So you'd need to divide 45.45% by 20 over 90 

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Realistically were not going to win every game.

Neither will West Brom

Neither will Coventry. 

That's why I think it's in our own hands. It's OK to disagree. Neither of us are right or wrong here. 

As others have told you. It's literally not "in our hands". 

Whatever really. Just so long as, when we finish 11th, people (and I'm honestly not using that word as a euphemism for you) don't berate the team for "bottling" the play-offs or some bullshit like that, then fine. 

[bcfc01]

Average PPG of those clubs above us dictates that there will be a few who will either maintain or decrease slightly due to opposition they have to play. Same for us - which indicates that we will finish nowhere near top 6 in terms of points.

We are not consistent enough.

IF we can finish top 10, that will be a very good outcome imo.

[Davefevs]

14 minutes ago, transfer reader said:

I don't believe it's possible for all the teams above us to reach the amount of points necessary, if we go on a very good run. 

I haven't gone through the permutations, but I'm pretty sure that even with our 4 point deficit there is a points tally we could get which would make it impossible for most if not all of the sides above us and in the playoff hunt for 6th to still finish above us because of the fixture lists.

It is quite likely an extreme amount (possibly even maximum points) but that would still make it within our own hands.

@ExiledAjax post on pg1 explains.

[Kibs]

9 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

At the 32 game point last season Coventry were 5 points off the play offs. 

I don't think anyone thought they would get play offs. But they did. Think they only lost one game for the rest of the season and that was key. 

So it can be done. 

We have 14 games to get around 30 points. More could be needed, less could be needed. 

Forget about what's happened before now. We have a 14 game season. It can be done, we can do it so let's do it. 

If say we win our next two games like we should and we then suddenly find ourselves in 6th or 7th, should we just down tools and give up because we averaged 1.375 over 32 games? So therefore it must be impossible for us to pick up enough points to stay in 6th? 

It's a 14 game season now. We don't need to play every team. Compared to others we have a favourable fixture list on paper. 

It’s mathematically possible, so yes it can be done, but if the Championship has taught us anything, it’s that points are often gained and dropped from where you don’t expect….

I think since their managerial appointments, QPR and Sheff Wed are both capable teams despite their league position so nothing would surprise me…..well, 6 points would actually

But dare to dream and all that, I’m just pleased that we’re still amongst the chasing pack and It would be great to stay in the mix as long as possible.

[W-S-M Seagull]

12 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

As others have told you. It's literally not "in our hands". 

Whatever really. Just so long as, when we finish 11th, people (and I'm honestly not using that word as a euphemism for you) don't berate the team for "bottling" the play-offs or some bullshit like that, then fine. 

Why are you relying upon others to progress your argument? Please tell me the maximum amount of points each team can get considering lots all have to play each other? 

Not every team can get maximum points. Its impossible. I thought you would know that. If we win all of our games, West Brom, Sunderland, Norwich can't. So thats minus 3 from their maximum total. When they play each other then more points will be dropped. Basic maths mate

IN MY OPINION it is in our own hands. So it doesn't matter if you tell me its not, or if someone else does, my opinion doesn't change. 

Why are you trying to plant seeds? Very strange. Here's me being positive and you're trying to scold that and frame it as some agenda. Bizarre. 

You are free to go back and check my posting history where I said in the summer my expectations were top 10 with us having a chance of play offs in the final games. It would be rather bizarre for me to berate us for achieving my expectations don't you think? 

If you don't think we can get around 30 points, fair enough. However I do. 

Edited February 16 by W-S-M Seagull

[W-S-M Seagull]

Hull were 8 points behind us in 2007-2008 after round 32. They finished a point above us. 

In the same season Palace were 4 points off the play offs (just like we are now) and they of course finished in the play offs. 

 

Edited February 17 by W-S-M Seagull

[MC RISK77]

8 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Why are you relying upon others to progress your argument? Please tell me the maximum amount of points each team can get considering lots all have to play each other? 

Not every team can get maximum points. Its impossible. I thought you would know that. If we win all of our games, West Brom, Sunderland, Norwich can't. So thats minus 3 from their maximum total. When they play each other then more points will be dropped. Basic maths mate

IN MY OPINION it is in our own hands. So it doesn't matter if you tell me its not, or if someone else does, my opinion doesn't change. 

Why are you trying to plant seeds? Very strange. Here's me being positive and you're trying to scold that and frame it as some agenda. Bizarre. 

You are free to go back and check my posting history where I said in the summer my expectations were top 10 with us having a chance of play offs in the final games. It would be rather bizarre for me to berate us for achieving my expectations don't you think? 

If you don't think we can get around 30 points, fair enough. However I do. 

Pretty sure no more than ten days ago  you were saying our season was effectively over after the cup loss- now a play off place is in our own hands which it most certainly is not by the way.

[cidercity1987]

8 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Why are you relying upon others to progress your argument? Please tell me the maximum amount of points each team can get considering lots all have to play each other? 

Not every team can get maximum points. Its impossible. I thought you would know that. If we win all of our games, West Brom, Sunderland, Norwich can't. So thats minus 3 from their maximum total. When they play each other then more points will be dropped. Basic maths mate

IN MY OPINION it is in our own hands. So it doesn't matter if you tell me its not, or if someone else does, my opinion doesn't change. 

Why are you trying to plant seeds? Very strange. Here's me being positive and you're trying to scold that and frame it as some agenda. Bizarre. 

You are free to go back and check my posting history where I said in the summer my expectations were top 10 with us having a chance of play offs in the final games. It would be rather bizarre for me to berate us for achieving my expectations don't you think? 

If you don't think we can get around 30 points, fair enough. However I do. 

Hey WSM, I am a big fan of most of your posts. You are barking up the wrong tree here though bud.

It's mathematically most definitely not in our hands. 

[Sir Geoff]

13 hours ago, Ian M said:

Even with a game in hand it looks tough for Hull as they face 9 of the top teams. Lots of opportunity for points to be dropped.

Or to put one over your rivals.

[Elruliri]

How typical would it be for us to go on a unbeaten run, make the playoffs and um f@£k it up. We must have the worst record of playoff defeats. Then again the law of averages say we must win them one day.

I don't think we will make top 6 but maybe top 10. We are to inconsistent but I would like to see us carry some momentum into next season where I think we will be stronger.

[ExiledAjax]

9 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Basic maths mate

Opinion ≠ Fact

Edited February 17 by ExiledAjax

[myol'man]

As Mr. Clough and Captain Manning will tell you, football is played on grass, not on paper.

6 points from the next two games & it'll be "we're going up"

No points and it'll be "why did they sack Pearson "

It's what we do!

I can remember Joe Jordan achieving a fantastic run in (5 wins out of the last 6 games?) to get us into the playoffs (where we failed, as always)

[1960maaan]

Just been through the Table/results calculator. https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

Now I just gave us 3 wins for fun just to see what could be possible. The other results I gave some thought too, though remember I'm am rubbish at predicting . 
If we can get 3 wins it is possible we could look in a very healthy place.
I fully accept at 5 OClock today I could be moaning about a loss or bore draw, but before that this is just a bit of fun.
Try it yourself and see where we get to.

[1960maaan]

The one thing in our favour is it's the Championship, and as such it throws up shocks on almost a weekly basis. 

While against us is it's the Championship and you can't be sure of our results on almost a weekly basis.

While it's possible though, why not think it ?

[mozo]

34 minutes ago, Elruliri said:

How typical would it be for us to go on a unbeaten run, make the playoffs and um f@£k it up. We must have the worst record of playoff defeats. Then again the law of averages say we must win them one day.

I don't think we will make top 6 but maybe top 10. We are to inconsistent but I would like to see us carry some momentum into next season where I think we will be stronger.

Don't worry, we probably won't get in the playoffs, but if we did we would be a total outside bet. Just getting there would be a massive step in the right direction, and as disappointing as it would be to not go up, you can't be greedy.

I get what you're saying, though, that City like to get your hopes up then dramatically collapse, a bit like England's cricketers today...

[mozo]

11 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

Just been through the Table/results calculator. https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

Now I just gave us 3 wins for fun just to see what could be possible. The other results I gave some thought too, though remember I'm am rubbish at predicting . 
If we can get 3 wins it is possible we could look in a very healthy place.
I fully accept at 5 OClock today I could be moaning about a loss or bore draw, but before that this is just a bit of fun.
Try it yourself and see where we get to.

Pre-season, or indeed any time during this season, if you'd have said that with 10 games to go City could be, say, 3 points off the playoffs, we'd have bloody loved that. So if we somehow manage to do it, I'd be delighted.

 

[1960maaan]

43 minutes ago, mozo said:

Pre-season, or indeed any time during this season, if you'd have said that with 10 games to go City could be, say, 3 points off the playoffs, we'd have bloody loved that. So if we somehow manage to do it, I'd be delighted.

 

Exactly, and after the last few years I intend to enjoy it.*

 

 

*Hopefully 

Edited February 17 by 1960maaan

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, MC RISK77 said:

Pretty sure no more than ten days ago  you were saying our season was effectively over after the cup loss- now a play off place is in our own hands which it most certainly is not by the way.

In fairness it looked like it “effectively” was, but things can change quickly in football…hence why it’s sometimes best to not go too black or white. And that’s not just City getting two wins, but other teams dropping points at the same time.

I thought a defeat at Boro would make the rest of the season a trudge, but I hadn’t ruled out a win. It was a bit of a 6-pointer and a mood changer.

[Out of his pie crust]

I’m not really entertaining a genuine thought of the playoffs unless we win our next 3 games. The thought is there but it’s just sat there in the corner of my mind, occasionally waving politely 

[CHAZ MICHAELS]

Looking forward to revisiting this thread after a disappointing 1-1 draw this afternoon.

[mozo]

19 minutes ago, CHAZ MICHAELS said:

Looking forward to revisiting this thread after a disappointing 1-1 draw this afternoon.

And then coming back to it when we beat Cardiff and Ipswich (prior to dropping points to Swansea)? And so it goes on...

[cidercity1987]

4 hours ago, CHAZ MICHAELS said:

Looking forward to revisiting this thread after a disappointing 1-1 draw this afternoon.

This thread and others are utterly laughable.

Beating decent teams on the counter which we've done for the past three years is no evidence we can break down shit teams, which we haven't done for three years

Edited February 17 by cidercity1987

[cidercity1987]

[Kibs]

Yarp…….

[Sturny]

5 hours ago, CHAZ MICHAELS said:

Looking forward to revisiting this thread after a disappointing 1-1 draw this afternoon.

We wish.. 

[ExiledAjax]

So even had we won today we'd have still been 4 points off the play offs. ******* maths.