The elephant in the room

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, pillred said:

I still think we should reserve judgment, 20 odd games are a bit soon to decide on his future. 

Sunderland didn't consider it to be too soon for Beale. 1.17 ppg from 12 games. 

Currently Manning is on 1.27 ppg.

Manning was on 1.25 after 12 games.

Holden was sacked with a 1.44 ppg from 41 games.

Holden was also sacked from Charlton with a ppg of 1.28 from 32 games. 

Pearson was sacked with a higher PPG in the 18 games he managed this season. 18 games was enough to decide Pearsons future. 

It's OK to reserve judgment but to me there is a trend developing. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

2 hours ago, BCFCGav said:

Very fair points raised, not sure why some people get so aggro when someone on a forum posts a view that isn’t all sunshine and rainbows! 

I made this post because I think there are some valid things to be discussed but there is a fraction of people on here who would rather that these things were not discussed. Hence the title. 

These people constantly try to shut down these opinions so that's why I made this thread so we could discuss things. There has been some really interesting discussions go on within this thread which ultimately is what having this platform is all about. 

Edited February 21 by W-S-M Seagull

[Ashtongreight]

36 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Thats my worry and what I was trying to allude to in my post. 

If we continue like we have done for the remainder of the season, do we really want to commit to having a summer with Manning? 

 

I would have kept Nige and given him cash to improve his squad, he’d earned that right imo, but that boat had sailed.

I also share many of your concerns about Manning, but we are where we are, surely we have to allow him to try to improve the squad over the summer in an attempt to solve the conundrum  of how to break down teams that sit in. What’s the alternative?

 

[Rudolf Hucker]

2 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

For 2 and a half years Nigel was having to firefight … He did all the dirty work for Manning … Manning has come in here and inherited a decent squad …There was an expectation that Nige was to take us to the next level …Manning has failed to take us to that next level this season …

You’re so obvious and easy to read. Liam Manning doesn’t stand a hope in hell with you, because he’s not Nigel Pearson. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

4 minutes ago, Ashtongreight said:

 

I would have kept Nige and given him cash to improve his squad, he’d earned that right imo, but that boat had sailed.

I also share many of your concerns about Manning, but we are where we are, surely we have to allow him to try to improve the squad over the summer in an attempt to solve the conundrum  of how to break down teams that sit in. What’s the alternative?

 

I'm not sure Manning has earned that right to spend money. 

I've not seen anything that suggests if he was given money to spend then that would change things. I do see the argument that with his own players he may well get us better results. But what's going through my mind is that if we are relying upon him having his own players then thats a big risk to take. But then there is also an argument to be had that it may be best to cut our losses. 

We'll also be risking wasting more time on something that might not work out. 

As others have said in this thread, we may end up with a squad of players that don't really fit any style and that's a concern. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

2 minutes ago, Rudolf Hucker said:

You’re so obvious and easy to read. Liam Manning doesn’t stand a hope in hell with you, because he’s not Nigel Pearson. 

Nothing to do with Nigel Pearson mate. 

He's gone. Get over it. I'm talking about the here and the now. You know, the 9 points from 9 games here and now? 

I've constructed a well thought through post that asks many questions based on evidence. If you would like to debate those things then please do so instead of trying to frame this as something completely different. 

Any manager who came in and only got 1.27 ppg and just 6(7) wins from 18(22) didn't stand a chance with me. 

The fact you're not debating the evidence I presented tells its own story. 

[SydneyCity]

1 hour ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

If we continue like we have done for the remainder of the season, do we really want to commit to having a summer with Manning? 

It’s a gamble, and not one I’d take.

The most annoying part is we had the foundations in place, then tore up the designs. Regardless of how it plays out, we’ve got a building site for the next couple of seasons.

To really drag the analogy out, it will be interesting to see how many of the squad down tools from here on in. Nothing to play for as a club and, as you pointed out earlier, a few likely looking for a move, plus a few already knowing that they’re moving on whether they like it or not.

[Ashtongreight]

33 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I'm not sure Manning has earned that right to spend money. 

I've not seen anything that suggests if he was given money to spend then that would change things. I do see the argument that with his own players he may well get us better results. But what's going through my mind is that if we are relying upon him having his own players then thats a big risk to take. But then there is also an argument to be had that it may be best to cut our losses. 

We'll also be risking wasting more time on something that might not work out. 

As others have said in this thread, we may end up with a squad of players that don't really fit any style and that's a concern. 

I agree, and share your concerns , but what’s the alternative? That was my point. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

3 minutes ago, Ashtongreight said:

I agree, and share your concerns , but what’s the alternative? That was my point. 

The alternative is to allow JL and BT to lead another recruitment process

[Ashtongreight]

9 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

The alternative is to allow JL and BT to lead another recruitment process

Exactly, that’s why despite misgivings I don’t see any alternative than to let Manning attempt to make things work, because I can’t honestly see the alternative would be any better, and JL and BT aren’t going anywhere. 

[David Brent]

5 hours ago, JAWS said:

Which of our players would any of the top 6 swap their equivalents for?

One of them would probably take Pring,

MAYBE Conway, Dickie, Knight or Sykes

A top ten finish with this squad is probably over-achieving, maybe even top half

I’ve never really understood the questioning of whether x, y or z player gets into a top team.

They are all good players but a good team is greater than the sum of its parts. Liam has to get us a playing style that suits what we have. Freshen up the squad yes, but we don’t really need to start again. 

[TDarwall]

I'm confused, I thought the elephant in the room, was the big thing, everyone was thinking but not discussing. Turns out, it's the thing we discuss at huge length after every defeat.

Having said that at 3pm on Sat I didn't think top 6 was in our own hands mind.

I'm amazed anyone could go "all in" either way.  I don't because things develop over time, LJ was terrible/great/terrible/great. Cotts was fantastic..... until he wasn't.

Some of the criticism I find really odd. Questioning his integrity  because he made (on paper) a good career move. Managing a football club isn't like working for an insurance firm, there are relatively few opportunities for progression & you need to take then when you can. Had he turned us down & Oxford had the mother of all injury crisis & their form dipped, he could have been out on his ear with little chance of managing at this level again.

The game mgmt theory is interesting, but is he getting his game mgmt right when we win or is he lucky that the opposing managers game mgmt is even worse? Why does he so often get outfoxed by Championship managers but across 4 games, not once by a Prem manager?

 

 

[Son of Fred]

9 hours ago, Ashton Fete said:

He will get the summer/pre season so I’m just hoping it pays off but as of now I could see us being in the top 6 and a flying start to the season or just above the relegation zone after 20 games

I feel whomever he brings in player-wise the considerable gaps in tactical awareness/knowledge will remain - with very similar pattern re: results on the pitch.

The likelihood,as always,somewhere in between - not top six not bottom six - lower mid table.

Recruitment will be hugely important & I'm lacking confidence in those responsible.

Get it wrong and Captain Manning  will carry that heavy can & could well be gone before Christmas - not a situation to bring seasonal joy to any of us, not even the OP!

 

[Silvio Dante]

54 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

Some of the criticism I find really odd. Questioning his integrity  because he made (on paper) a good career move. Managing a football club isn't like working for an insurance firm, there are relatively few opportunities for progression & you need to take then when you can. Had he turned us down & Oxford had the mother of all injury crisis & their form dipped, he could have been out on his ear with little chance of managing at this level again.

The game mgmt theory is interesting, but is he getting his game mgmt right when we win or is he lucky that the opposing managers game mgmt is even worse? Why does he so often get outfoxed by Championship managers but across 4 games, not once by a Prem manager?

 

 

I know there was a lot of bad feeling when he left Oxford and find it hard to blame them as he wasn’t hot property when he arrived there but left at the first uptick of good form (and it wasn’t a sustained good season, it was a good first few games akin to how PNE started the season). As you say though, who knows how that would have panned out longer term (if you read Oxford fans views they were getting more points than merited), and I don’t think anyone can blame him for taking a step up - jobs don’t come up weekly at the next level up.

I’d also add in that AFAIK there was a mutual clause in LMs Oxford contract because he was a bit “damaged goods” on appointment allowing minimal compensation either way - so I don’t think again him exercising that should be criticised.

What can be criticised is the due diligence on either side. I think, irrespective of which side of the debate you sit on, pretty much everyone acknowledges the squad/style is not set up to how LM wants to play and it’s a rebuild. Tinnion and Lansdown didn’t do their due diligence on Liam (his lack of adaptability is a golden thread through this managerial career) and Liam didn’t do his due diligence on us as a club or on the squad. Again, not blaming him for moving up but he may have been better longer term keeping powder dry and waiting for a better “fit”

That being said, we are where we are. And I think the basic concern being raised is that Liam is a project coach, who has no track record of seeing a project through, or being successful in doing so. Again, no issues there - everyone’s got to start somewhere - but I don’t think it’s a wrong question to ask as to whether we want to invest money into him - particularly as he has shown (for understandable reasons) he will jump to a better job if it does work quickly.

Again, I’m not sure giving him the players though addresses his biggest flaw and we could end up in a years time with a misshapen squad and Liam having parted ways with us. It is a massive risk.

Edited February 21 by Silvio Dante

[Son of Fred]

8 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

Pearson produced inconsistent results as well. Can’t remember you talking similarly at those points 

In fairness Dave, Pearson was having to do a hell of a lot of heavy lifting on top of the 'usual' job.

In some ways because of this it's difficult to draw comparison.

[Engvall’s Splinter]

8 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

Pearson produced inconsistent results as well. Can’t remember you talking similarly at those points 

Absolutely he did. Therefore, a change was made for progression and immediately at that. JL stated the change was made so our season still would have something in it. It’s February and our season has pretty much finished already. 

Edited February 21 by Engvall’s Splinter

[TDarwall]

Just now, Silvio Dante said:

I know there was a lot of bad feeling when he left Oxford and find it hard to blame them as he wasn’t hot property when he arrived there but left at the first uptick of good form (and it wasn’t a sustained good season, it was a good first few games akin to how PNE started the season). As you say though, who knows how that would have panned out longer term (if you read Oxford fans views they were getting more points than merited), and I don’t think anyone can blame him for taking a step up - jobs don’t come up weekly at the next level up.

I’d also add in that AFAIK there was a mutual clause in LMs Oxford contract because he was a bit “damaged goods” on appointment allowing minimal compensation either way - so I don’t think again him exercising that should be criticised.

What can be criticised is the due diligence on either side. I think, irrespective of which side of the debate you sit on, pretty much everyone acknowledges the squad/style is not set up to how LM wants to play and it’s a rebuild. Tinnion and Lansdown didn’t do their due diligence on Liam (his lack of adaptability is a golden thread through this managerial career) and Liam didn’t do his due diligence on us as a club or on the squad. Again, not blaming him for moving up but he may have been better longer term keeping powder dry and waiting for a better “fit”

 

In terms of due diligence, unless you're a top manager who will have the best choice of jobs, I don't think many perspective managers do much due diligence at all. I think they would just look here & see a regime that is "generally" supportive of managers & think that'll do for me.

 

[Silvio Dante]

55 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

The game mgmt theory is interesting, but is he getting his game mgmt right when we win or is he lucky that the opposing managers game mgmt is even worse? Why does he so often get outfoxed by Championship managers but across 4 games, not once by a Prem manager?

 

 

On this point (as it’s one of mine!) I think you have to in large part take the cup as an exception as motivations, team selections etc are so varied. Did George Elekobi outfox Kieran McKenna etc? In Forests prior round Blackpool took them to a replay and extra time. The motivation factor here is huge and cup performances are often outliers - to give a great example our Liverpool games were in 1994 where Osman outfoxed Souness for three games but was dogshit elsewhere!

That isn’t to downplay we did excellently on those games against West Ham and Forest - it’s to say that you’d generally look at the league to remove external factor bias when considering performance trends

Edited February 21 by Silvio Dante

[Silvio Dante]

2 minutes ago, TDarwall said:

In terms of due diligence, unless you're a top manager who will have the best choice of jobs, I don't think many perspective managers do much due diligence at all. I think they would just look here & see a regime that is "generally" supportive of managers & think that'll do for me.

 

Don’t doubt that. But the point is that getting the upward movement wrong by going for the wrong fit too quickly can make the next big thing become Michael Appleton in short order.

[TDarwall]

23 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

On this point (as it’s one of mine!) I think you have to in large part take the cup as an exception as motivations, team selections etc are so varied. Did George Elekobi outfox Kieran McKenna etc? In Forests prior round Blackpool took them to a replay and extra time. The motivation factor here is huge and cup performances are often outliers - to give a great example our Liverpool games were in 1994 where Osman outfoxed Souness for three games but was dogshit elsewhere!

That isn’t to downplay we did excellently on those games against West Ham and Forest - it’s to say that you’d generally look at the league to remove external factor bias when considering performance trends

Just typed & lost a long reply due to iffy train wifi.

I think this comes down a bit to confirmation bias; if someone.  wants to big up Liam they include the cup games, if someone wants to talk him down, they exclude them.

[Rudolf Hucker]

5 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Nothing to do with Nigel Pearson mate. 

He's gone. Get over it.

Oh the ‘kin irony. 

[Silvio Dante]

Just now, TDarwall said:

Just typed & lost a long reply due to iffy train wifi.

I think this comes down a bit to confirmation bias; if someone.  wants to big up Liam they include the cup games, if someone wants to talk him down, they exclude them.

I’m not sure it does (and that may be confirmation bias!)

The examples I tend to give here are Johnson in 2017 and Osman in 1994. The performances under the former against Palace, Stoke and the Manchester clubs were in keeping with the league performances at the time and you could say were genuinely reflective of where we were at the time. The latter were an anomaly.

What I’m saying is to remove any of the variables from the cup games (prem team playing reserve players, motivation etc) it is reasonable to judge on league performance only - good or bad when considering a wider trend of where you are as a club.

As they say “the leagues the bread and butter”

 

[Son of Fred]

8 hours ago, downendcity said:

I don't know, but rumours are that Manning is playing him up front alongside Wells at Wednesday!

Can he hold the ball up..??

And will he play with a stocking over his head..???

[Tomo]

7 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Sunderland didn't consider it to be too soon for Beale. 1.17 ppg from 12 games. 

Currently Manning is on 1.27 ppg.

Manning was on 1.25 after 12 games.

Holden was sacked with a 1.44 ppg from 41 games.

Holden was also sacked from Charlton with a ppg of 1.28 from 32 games. 

Pearson was sacked with a higher PPG in the 18 games he managed this season. 18 games was enough to decide Pearsons future. 

It's OK to reserve judgment but to me there is a trend developing. 

Loving the stats...

Liam won't be under any pressure with regards to losing his job in the short term.

He will be given funds in the summer (not massive money) to add 5/6 players.

If we are averaging 1.27PPG in December 2024, then that's a different conversation.

Enjoy the ManningBall 2024/2025 journey.

He's going nowhere. Get behind him and let's see what happens. 

[Super]

8 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Thats my worry and what I was trying to allude to in my post. 

If we continue like we have done for the remainder of the season, do we really want to commit to having a summer with Manning? 

Yes because he deserves the chance to make this his team.

[Galley is our king]

1 hour ago, Gaseater said:

The fact you think your post is “well thought through” says more about you than anything else, it is in the main proper guff. You compare it to Beale who unlike Manning lost the dressing room and the fan base - Manning has done neither. that negatively on the scale over someone who is doing an “ok” job in a short period of time isn’t healthy. 

Youre acting as if his points return hasn’t been good enough, you’re one fan out of thousands so where is the evidence he is doing this terrible job that means he should be sacked. He is doing ok no more no less, just as Pearson was, difference is he had 2+ years where as Manning, what, 4 months. Bizarre.

Manning needs to make adjustments in game better, especially when behind, he also needs to find a way to breakdown teams who play the low block….on the flip side players are improving under him….Williams, Tanner, Mehmeti, Pring….and they clearly enjoy the coaching that’s going on. Next season will be litmus test. As for your negativity, not healthy.

Mmmmm, so you joined one hour ago and this is your first post...

Shouldn't you be doing something better like sorting tickets or other Bristol Sport work?

[Sir Geoff]

11 hours ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Mehmeti has got better since Manning has played him. Much better. His end product still needs a lot of work, but Pearson didnt seem to rate him. Would you credit Manning for improving one of our investments?

 

He really hasn't. 13 months of training day in day out with better players and a summer of one to one coaching has not improved him.

[ExiledAjax]

8 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Currently Manning is on 1.27 ppg.

1.28. We round up if the decimal is after 5.

8 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Manning was on 1.25 after 12 games.

And is currently on 1.5 from the last 12 games. Looking at his first 12 excludes the last 6 games where we've gone at 1.33 ppg. 1.5 matches Pearson's top rate from any 10 game block this season and is considerably higher than Beale.

8 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Pearson was sacked with a higher PPG in the 18 games he managed this season. 18 games was enough to decide Pearsons future. 

Pearson managed 14 league games this season and returned 1.29 ppg. Manning's ppg over his last 14 is 1.36. So yes Pearson had a higher ppg in his 14 games this season compared to Manning's 18...a whole 0.01 higher. However if we compare apples and apples Manning is currently trending higher than Pearson.

If you want people to respect your opinions then you need to start basing them on foundations of rock not sand. Compare apples and apples and use the right numbers. 

Edited February 21 by ExiledAjax

[Back of the Dolman]

8 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

He really hasn't. 13 months of training day in day out with better players and a summer of one to one coaching has not improved him.

I’m with you Sir Geoff, I’ve really seen nothing on a consistent level to suggest that Mehmeti has improved at all.

He now gets more game time which gives him more time to impress some but I really don’t see it !

No pace, rarely beats a man and If you watch when he does it’s because of ricochets.

No goals, low assist rate, crossing poor and his anticipation of and ability to deal with defensive situations is below what is required.

I’ll be more than happy if he proves me wrong and I will be the first to admit it but I’ll be surprised if it happens.

[Tomo]

Let's hope that the start of MK Dons 22/23 season is not replicated for us in 24/25

Quote: 'Following an awful start to the season that found his side in the relegation zone, Manning was sacked on 11 December 2022 having accumulated just fifteen points from twenty matches, six points from safety and only off the bottom on goal difference'