Bourne End Red Posted March 2 Report Share Posted March 2 Form table over past 10 games…… Ignore the fact we are 13th. we are only 6 points off relegation zone. It couldn’t happen….could it…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wedontplayinblue Posted March 2 Report Share Posted March 2 Another post on the same matter exactly what’s needed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banjo Island Posted March 2 Report Share Posted March 2 2 minutes ago, Bourne End Red said: Form table over past 10 games…… Ignore the fact we are 13th. we are only 6 points off relegation zone. It couldn’t happen….could it…. You bet it could Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cellist Posted March 2 Report Share Posted March 2 Unlikely. Not due to our form, but the number of teams below us who would have to seriously get their act together. Rotherham are doomed, and so we only need two of the other 10 teams to not overtake us. Sheff Wed and QPR have come good the last few weeks, but not sure I see Birmingham, Huddersfield, Stoke, Blackburn in their current form all overtaking us with a few points head start. Still, the fact that we are worried at all shows what a total car crash replacing Pearson with Manning mid-season has been. Couldn't really have gone much worse in terms of points and performances overall (one or two exceptions). Would love to hear BT/JL hold their hands up, but what can they say at this point really? We don't tend to sack managers quickly. Manning would be going the way of Beale or Rooney very soon at most other clubs but I doubt he will here unless we do look like we're going down with 3 games to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted March 2 Report Share Posted March 2 All these people worrying about relegation for attention. 66/1. If you think it’s possible then lump on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecko Posted March 2 Report Share Posted March 2 We won't go down this season. Next season is a different question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Balls Posted March 2 Report Share Posted March 2 9 minutes ago, And Its Smith said: All these people worrying about relegation for attention. 66/1. If you think it’s possible then lump on! Just goes to show that the bookies know less about Championship football than you might think. Those are incredibly long odds for a team that is 6 points above the relegation zone and only taken 8 points from the last 10 games. Continue that forward and we get to 52 points, which hasn’t always been enough to guarantee survival, especially as a number of the clubs below us are in significantly better form or have made changes that might improve their form. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
38MC Posted March 2 Report Share Posted March 2 14 minutes ago, And Its Smith said: All these people worrying about relegation for attention. 66/1. If you think it’s possible then lump on! I don’t think it’s for attention. I think it’s a genuine concern (for them). But when you realise that’s a lot of teams to overtake us, and many have to play each other, that puts the 66/1 into context. If you look at the table it’s easy to see us dragged into it, if you look at the fixtures you realise not each team can make ground on us each game week. I’m sure we are safe, but only because of points on the board from before Manning arrived. Had he arrived sooner, or in some weird universe there were 15 games left, I’d be dead worried. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted March 2 Report Share Posted March 2 (edited) 32 minutes ago, And Its Smith said: All these people worrying about relegation for attention. 66/1. If you think it’s possible then lump on! You don’t think its possible then? That’s fine, just come out and say it. Edited March 2 by Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy Marsh II Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 150/1 on paddy power. Definitely worth a tenner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy082005 Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 3 hours ago, Bourne End Red said: Form table over past 10 games…… Ignore the fact we are 13th. we are only 6 points off relegation zone. It couldn’t happen….could it…. It would be nothing more than the club deserved. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 38 minutes ago, Dr Balls said: Just goes to show that the bookies know less about Championship football than you might think. Those are incredibly long odds for a team that is 6 points above the relegation zone and only taken 8 points from the last 10 games. Continue that forward and we get to 52 points, which hasn’t always been enough to guarantee survival, especially as a number of the clubs below us are in significantly better form or have made changes that might improve their form. Or they know a fair bit more than you about it. There are a lot of teams below us which is a big factor in the odds and 52 points will be enough this season looking at the table. Do you think all the bookies have got this wrong independently? As Smith says, have a flutter if you are so sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 4 minutes ago, Randy Marsh II said: 150/1 on paddy power. Definitely worth a tenner. At those odds it is definitely worth a tenner. Run this scenario 150 times and we would probably go down 2-3 times. I’d have it between 50/1 and 70/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superjack Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 3 hours ago, cellist said: Unlikely. Not due to our form, but the number of teams below us who would have to seriously get their act together. Rotherham are doomed, and so we only need two of the other 10 teams to not overtake us. Sheff Wed and QPR have come good the last few weeks, but not sure I see Birmingham, Huddersfield, Stoke, Blackburn in their current form all overtaking us with a few points head start. Still, the fact that we are worried at all shows what a total car crash replacing Pearson with Manning mid-season has been. Couldn't really have gone much worse in terms of points and performances overall (one or two exceptions). Would love to hear BT/JL hold their hands up, but what can they say at this point really? We don't tend to sack managers quickly. Manning would be going the way of Beale or Rooney very soon at most other clubs but I doubt he will here unless we do look like we're going down with 3 games to go. Not even then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superjack Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, And Its Smith said: All these people worrying about relegation for attention. 66/1. If you think it’s possible then lump on! Well. It IS possible. Thankfully unlikely due to us having a competent and experienced man in charge of the team for nearly half the season. So, not this season. But imo it is inevitable now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Balls Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 7 minutes ago, Leabrook said: Or they know a fair bit more than you about it. There are a lot of teams below us which is a big factor in the odds and 52 points will be enough this season looking at the table. Do you think all the bookies have got this wrong independently? As Smith says, have a flutter if you are so sure What I also know about bookies is that they pitch their odds to get punters to flutter. Until now few people would have betted on us finishing in the bottom three at the end of the season. However if there is a rush of people tomorrow betting on City getting relegated those odds would rapidly start to fall even though the situation might not be any different. Bookies hate losing money and if they see that sentiment is going a particular way they will quickly follow. I would expect those odds to be significantly lower by the time we face Leicester at the end of the month. And if any of them had actually watched us play or looked deeper into our issues then they might be pitching the odds a lot lower than 66/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superjack Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 9 minutes ago, Leabrook said: Or they know a fair bit more than you about it. There are a lot of teams below us which is a big factor in the odds and 52 points will be enough this season looking at the table. Do you think all the bookies have got this wrong independently? As Smith says, have a flutter if you are so sure Working late, aren't you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 2 minutes ago, Dr Balls said: What I also know about bookies is that they pitch their odds to get punters to flutter. Until now few people would have betted on us finishing in the bottom three at the end of the season. However if there is a rush of people tomorrow betting on City getting relegated those odds would rapidly start to fall even though the situation might not be any different. Bookies hate losing money and if they see that sentiment is going a particular way they will quickly follow. I would expect those odds to be significantly lower by the time we face Leicester at the end of the month. And if any of them had actually watched us play or looked deeper into our issues then they might be pitching the odds a lot lower than 66/1. Paddy Power at 150/1. I think they know what they are doing but let me know how much you lose 1 minute ago, Superjack said: Working late, aren't you? What are you on about ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superjack Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 2 minutes ago, Leabrook said: Paddy Power at 150/1. I think they know what they are doing but let me know how much you lose What are you on about ? Just teasing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 Just now, Superjack said: Just teasing. Ah okay. Sorry I didn’t get it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superjack Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 1 minute ago, Leabrook said: Ah okay. Sorry I didn’t get it! No worries. I was playfully implying that you were Bristol Sport, but in fairness in reply to your post it didn't really make sense. This is what the Lansdowns have reduced me to. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Balls Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 4 minutes ago, Leabrook said: Paddy Power at 150/1. I think they know what they are doing but let me know how much you lose What are you on about ? Paddy Power have us at 150/1, Watford at 33/1 and Swansea at 30/1. You tell me which one looks like the outlier there because there’s no way that Watford are at greater risk of relegation than us. And certainly not nearly 5 times more likely! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Leabrook said: Or they know a fair bit more than you about it. Well the same bookies that had us at 250/1 to go down this time last week (Skybet) now have us at 66/1. So what now? Edited March 3 by Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 5 minutes ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said: Well the same bookies that had us at 250/1 to go down this time last week (Skybet) now have us at 66/1. So what now? What now? I will take the Paddy Power odds which are worth a tenner. If anyone genuinely thinks a bookie has got it wrong then they should bet. It’s the only way to long term profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy Marsh II Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 14 minutes ago, Leabrook said: Paddy Power at 150/1. I think they know what they are doing but let me know how much you lose What are you on about ? 150/1 are ridiculously generous odd tbf. Lump on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leabrook Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 Just now, Randy Marsh II said: 150/1 are ridiculously generous odd tbf. Lump on. I’m betting a tenner. We won’t go down. But 150/1 is good value and as I always say with betting, don’t bet on what you think will happen as you don’t know, bet value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 3 hours ago, Bourne End Red said: Form table over past 10 games…… Ignore the fact we are 13th. we are only 6 points off relegation zone. It couldn’t happen….could it…. If that form table repeats itself over the next 10 games then we will go into the last day of the season like this : 55 - Swansea, Boro & QPR 53 - Watford 52 - City, Plymouth 51 - Wednesday 49 - Millwall 48 - Huddersfield, Birmingham 47 - Stoke, Blackburn 21 - Rotherham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 3 minutes ago, Leabrook said: What now? I will take the Paddy Power odds which are worth a tenner. If anyone genuinely thinks a bookie has got it wrong then they should bet. It’s the only way to long term profit I get that, my point is that you suggested that Paddy Power know more about Bristol City and our current situation than an actual fan who presumably has watched the dross that’s been served up over the last couple of weeks and has resulted in the bottom 3 getting 9 points closer in just 13 days. If the bookies know so much then what makes one bookie (Paddy Power) more knowledgeable than another bookie (Skybet)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North London Red Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 21st and 22nd both currently have 38 points from 35 games. Extrapolating that to 46 games would equate to 50 points. Now Stoke and Huddersfield might both pick up a bit between now and May, but that would likely be at the expense of one of the other 7 teams currently between Huddersfield and ourselves in the table (or ourselves, in an Armageddon scenario), so 50 points is probably a reasonable proxy for where the line will be drawn. Peterborough went down on 54 a few years ago, which was an exceptional year. By the time Rotherham come to Ashton Gate they’ll already be down. That game is probably the likeliest source of a win in our remaining games, and I suspect we’ll scramble a few other points here and there to take us past 50. The other thing in our favour (at present) is goal difference - it’s more than 10 better than each of the current bottom 8. So in summary, I think it’s unlikely we’ll go down, but not impossible. Cue a final day relegation decider at Stoke now I’ve said that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aipearcey Posted March 3 Report Share Posted March 3 2 hours ago, And Its Smith said: All these people worrying about relegation for attention. 66/1. If you think it’s possible then lump on! Seen enough to concern me after the Leeds game and put £10 on at 100-1 to soften the blow if the “unthinkable” happens 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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